Research >> Economics

Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 201805



Pending Home Sales Index declined by 1.3% in April
Posted: May 31, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

After two straight months of modest increases, pending home sales dipped in April to their third-lowest level over the past year, according to the National Association of Realtors. All major regions saw no gain in contract activity last month.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, declined 1.3 percent to 106.4 in April from an upwardly revised 107.8 in March. With last month’s decrease, the index is down on an annualized basis (2.1 percent) for the fourth straight ...


Chicago Purchasing Managers Index rose 5.1 points to 62.7 in May
Posted: May 31, 2018 at 09:45 AM (Thursday)

The MNI Chicago Business Barometer rose 5.1 points to 62.7 in May, up from 57.6 in April, hitting the highest level since January.

Business activity gained traction in May, with growth in firms’ operations up for only the second time this year. All five Barometer components rose on the month, helping take the Barometer’s year-over-year growth back into the black. ...


Personal Income increased 0.3%, Spending increased 0.6%
Posted: May 31, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Personal income increased $49.5 billion (0.3 percent) in April according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $60.9 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $79.8 billion ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 13,000 to 221,000
Posted: May 31, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending May 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 221,000, a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 234,000. The 4-week moving average was 222,250, an increase of 2,500 from the previous week's unrevised average of 219,750. Claims taking procedures in Puerto Rico and in the ...


Challenger Layoffs Decreased to 31,517 in May
Posted: May 31, 2018 at 07:00 AM (Thursday)

Job cuts announced by U.S.-based employers fell 12.6 percent, from 36,081 in April to 31,517 in May, according to a report released Thursday by global outplacement and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

Last month’s job cuts were down 4.8 percent from the 33,092 announced in the same month last year. That is the lowest monthly total since October 2017, when 29,831 cuts were announced. ...


Beige Book: Economic Activity expanded moderately
Posted: May 30, 2018 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Economic activity expanded moderately in late April and early May with few shifts in the pattern of growth. The Dallas District was an exception, where overall economic activity sped up to a solid pace. Manufacturing shifted into higher gear with more than half of the Districts reporting a pickup in industrial activity and a third of the ...


Help Wanted OnLine Labor Demand decreased 51,000 to 4,699,500 in May
Posted: May 30, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Online advertised vacancies decreased 51,000 to 4,699,500 in May, according to The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Data Series,released today. The April Supply/Demand rate stands at 1.34 unemployed for each advertised vacancy, with a total of 1.6 million more unemployed workers than the number of advertised vacancies. The number ...


1Q2018 GDP preliminary estimate increased 2.2%
Posted: May 30, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.2 percent in the first quarter of 2018, according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2017, real GDP increased 2.9 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.3 percent. With this second estimate for the first quarter, the general picture of ...


ADP National Employment Report increased by 178,000 jobs in May
Posted: May 30, 2018 at 08:15 AM (Wednesday)

Private sector employment increased by 178,000 jobs from April to May according to the May ADP National Employment Report®.

“The hot job market has cooled slightly as the labor market continues to tighten,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “Healthcare and professional services remain a model of consistency and continue to serve as the main drivers of ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: May 30, 2018 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 2.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 25, 2018.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 4 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 5 ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity Expansion Accelerates Notably in May
Posted: May 29, 2018 at 10:30 AM (Tuesday)

Texas factory activity rose markedly in May, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, increased 10 points to a 12-year high of 35.2, signaling further acceleration in ...


Consumer Confidence Increased in May to 128.0
Posted: May 29, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased in May, following a modest decline in April (after a downward revision). The Index now stands at 128.0 (1985=100), up from 125.6 in April. The Present Situation Index increased from 157.5 to 161.7, while the Expectations Index improved from 104.3 last month to 105.6 ...


S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices gained 0.8% in March
Posted: May 29, 2018 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for March 2018 shows that home prices continued their rise across the country over the last 12 months.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 6.5% annual gain in March, the same as the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 6.5%, up from 6.4% in the ...


Paychex-IHS Small Business Jobs Index increased to 99.60 in May
Posted: May 29, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The Paychex | IHS Markit Small Business Employment Watch for May shows a small increase in the rate of hiring and a slight decrease in the pace of wage growth. The Small Business Jobs Index grew for the first time since January, up 0.07 percent to 99.60. Job growth among small businesses is down 0.73 percent year-over year, reflecting ...


Paychex-IHS Small Business Jobs Index increased to 99.60 in May
Posted: May 29, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The Paychex | IHS Markit Small Business Employment Watch for May shows a small increase in the rate of hiring and a slight decrease in the pace of wage growth. The Small Business Jobs Index grew for the first time since January, up 0.07 percent to 99.60. Job growth among small businesses is down 0.73 percent year-over year, reflecting ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence slipped in May to 98.0
Posted: May 25, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer sentiment slipped by less than an index-point from last month, remaining at the same favorable levels for the past 18 months, according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

Since President Trump’s election, the Sentiment Index has meandered in a tight eight-point range from 93.4 to 101.4, with the small month-to-month variations indicating no emerging trend, said U-M economist Richard Curtin, director of the surveys. ...


April New Orders for Durable Goods decreased 1.7%, Ex-Trans up 0.9%
Posted: May 25, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in April decreased $4.2 billion or 1.7 percent to $248.5 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down following two consecutive monthly increases, followed a 2.7 percent March increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.9 percent. Excluding defense, ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity expanded more rapidly in May
Posted: May 24, 2018 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity continued to expand rapidly, with the composite index at its highest level in survey history for the second consecutive month. In addition, contacts remained optimistic about future activity. Price indexes were little changed, but generally remained at ...


Existing-Home Sales Decreased 2.5% in April
Posted: May 24, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

After moving upward for two straight months, existing-home sales retreated in April on both a monthly and annualized basis, according to the National Association of Realtors®. All four major regions saw no gain in sales activity last month.

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, decreased 2.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.46 million in April from 5.60 million in March. With last month’s decline, sales ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 11,000 to 234,000
Posted: May 24, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending May 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 234,000, an increase of 11,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 222,000 to 223,000. The 4-week moving average was 219,750, an increase of 6,250 from the previous week's revised average. The ...


New Home Sales in April at annual rate of 662,000
Posted: May 23, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

New Home Sales
Sales of new single-family houses in April 2018 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 662,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 1.5 percent (±11.8 percent)* below the revised March rate of 672,000, but is 11.6 percent ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: May 23, 2018 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 2.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 18, 2018.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 4 ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity Index rebounded from -3 to 16 in May
Posted: May 22, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing firms saw robust growth in May, according to survey results from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite index swung from −3 in April to 16 in May, boosted by growth in the indexes for shipments, new orders, and employment. Local business conditions also moved back into expansionary territory, ...


Philadelphia NonManufacturing Activity Suggest Continued Improvement in Growth in May
Posted: May 22, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Responses to the Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest that regional nonmanufacturing activity improved in May. The firm-level index of general activity, new orders, and sales/revenues rose notably after posting declines in April, and the full-time employment index remained positive. Both price indicators increased from last month. ...


Chicago Fed National Activity Points to Little Change in Economic Growth in April
Posted: May 21, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, moved up to +0.23 in April from +0.11 in March. Fifty of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in April, while 35 made negative contributions. Thirty-five indicators improved from March to April, while 50 indicators deteriorated. Of ...


U.S. Leading Economic Index increased 0.4% in April
Posted: May 17, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI)for the U.S. increased 0.4 percent in April to 109.4 (2016 = 100), following a 0.4 percent increase in March, and a 0.7 percent increase in February.

“April’s increase and continued uptrend in the U.S. LEI suggest solid growth should continue in the second half of 2018. However, the LEI’s six-month growth rate has recently moderated somewhat, suggesting growth is unlikely to strongly accelerate,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 11,000 to 222,000
Posted: May 17, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending May 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 222,000, an increase of 11,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 211,000. The 4-week moving average was 213,250, a decrease of 2,750 from the previous week's unrevised average of 216,000. This is the lowest level for this average since December ...


Philadelphia Fed Outlook Reported Activity Suggest a Pickup in Growth in May
Posted: May 17, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Results from the May Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest a pickup in growth of the region’s manufacturing sector. The survey’s indexes for general activity, new orders, shipments, and employment increased from their readings in April. A notable share of firms also reported higher prices for their own manufactured goods this month. ...


Industrial Production rose 0.7%
Capacity Utilization up to 78.0%

Posted: May 16, 2018 at 09:15 AM (Wednesday)

Industrial production rose 0.7 percent in April for its third consecutive monthly increase. The rates of change for industrial production for previous months were revised downward, on net; for the first quarter, output is now reported to have advanced 2.3 percent at an annual rate. After being unchanged in March, manufacturing output rose ...


April Housing Starts decreased 3.7%, Permits down 1.8%
Posted: May 16, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Building Permits
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,352,000. This is 1.8 percent (±1.3 percent) below the revised March rate of 1,377,000, but is 7.7 percent (±0.9 percent) above the April 2017 rate of 1,255,000. Single-family authorizations in April were at a ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: May 16, 2018 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 2.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 11, 2018.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 4 ...


Treasury International Capital Data for March 2018
Posted: May 15, 2018 at 04:00 PM (Tuesday)

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for March 2018. The sum total in March of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a net TIC outflow of $38.5 billion. Of this, net foreign private outflows were $41.9 billion, and net ...


Business Inventories unch% in March
Posted: May 15, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for March, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,438.3 billion, up 0.5 percent (±0.2 percent) from February 2018 and was up 6.4 percent (±0.3 percent) from ...


Builder Confidence rose 2 points to 70 in May
Posted: May 15, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes rose two points to 70 in May after a downwardly revised April reading on the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). This is the fourth time the HMI has reached 70 or higher this year.

“The solid May report shows that builders are buoyed by growing consumer demand for single-family homes,” said NAHB Chairman Randy Noel. “However, the record high cost of lumber is hurting builders’ bottom lines and making it more difficult to produce competitively priced ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions expanded at a faster pace in May
Posted: May 15, 2018 at 08:34 AM (Tuesday)

Business activity grew strongly in New York State, according to firms responding to the May 2018 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index climbed four points to 20.1, indicating a faster pace of growth than in April. The new orders index rose seven points to 16.0, and the shipments index was little ...


U.S. Retail Sales for April Increase 0.3%, Ex-Auto up 0.3%
Posted: May 15, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for April 2018, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $497.6 billion, an increase of 0.3 percent (±0.4 percent)* from the previous month, and 4.7 percent (±0.5 percent) above April 2017. Total sales for the February ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Preliminary May Results at 98.8
Posted: May 11, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer sentiment remained unchanged in early May from the April survey. The Expectations Index gained 1.1 points and the Current Conditions Index fell 1.6 points--both were statistically insignificant changes. What is likely to capture attention, however, are the small uptick in near term inflation expectations, the downward slippage in ...


Forecasters See Slightly Brighter Outlook for Growth and Labor Markets in 2018 and 2019
Posted: May 11, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The U.S. economy looks slightly stronger now than it did three months ago, according to 36 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters predict real GDP will grow at an annual rate of 3.0 percent this quarter and next quarter, up slightly from the estimates of three months ago. On an annual-average ...


U.S. Import Price Index Increased 0.3% in April
Posted: May 11, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

U.S. import prices increased 0.3 percent in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, following a 0.2-percent decline in March. Prices for fuel and nonfuel imports advanced in April. Prices for U.S. exports rose 0.6 percent in April, after increasing 0.3 percent in March. Higher prices for nonagricultural exports more than ...


Consumer Price Index increased 0.2% in April, Ex Fd & Engy rose 0.1%
Posted: May 10, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in April on a seasonally adjusted basis after falling 0.1 percent in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.5 percent before ...


Real Average Hourly Earnings unch% in April
Posted: May 10, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Real average hourly earnings for all employees were unchanged from March to April, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from a 0.1-percent increase in average hourly earnings being offset by a 0.2-percent increase in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Unchanged at 211,000
Posted: May 10, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending May 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 211,000, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised level of 211,000. The 4-week moving average was 216,000, a decrease of 5,500 from the previous week's unrevised average of 221,500. This is the lowest level for this average since December 20, 1969 when ...


Wholesale Inventories up 0.3% in March
Posted: May 9, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

March 2018 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $497.9 billion, up 0.3 percent (±0.5 percent)* from the revised February level and were up 7.3 percent (±0.9 percent) from the March 2017 level. The ...


Producer Price Index increased 0.1% in April, ex Fd & Engy up 0.1%
Posted: May 9, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.1 percent in April, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices advanced 0.3 percent in March and 0.2 percent in February. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index increased 2.6 percent for the 12 months ended ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: May 9, 2018 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 0.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 4, 2018.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index remained unchanged from the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 1 percent from ...


Job Openings increased to 6.6 million in March
Posted: May 8, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The number of job openings increased to 6.6 million on the last business day of March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and separations were little changed at 5.4 million and 5.3 million, respectively. Within separations, the quits rate was little changed at 2.3 percent and the layoffs and discharges ...


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased 0.1 points to 104.8 in April
Posted: May 8, 2018 at 07:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Small Business Optimism Index sustained record-high levels increasing to 104.8 in April, driven by reports of improved profits, the highest in the NFIB Small Business Economic Trends Survey’s 45-year history. Additionally, the number of small businesses reporting poor sales fell to a near record low. April is the 17th consecutive month ...


Consumer Credit Increased at an annual rate of 3.50%
Posted: May 7, 2018 at 03:00 PM (Monday)

Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4-1/4 percent during the first quarter. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 1 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 6 percent. In March, consumer credit increased at an annual rate of ...


Employment Trends Index Increased in April to 108.08
Posted: May 7, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased in April, after increasing in March. The index now stands at 108.08, up from 107.37 (a downward revision) in March. The change represents a 4.9 percent gain in the ETI compared to a year ago.

“In recent months, the Employment Trends Index continued to improve, signaling that employment growth will remain solid through the summer,” said Gad Levanon, Chief Economist, North America, at The Conference Board. “With the economy growing well above trend, and the ...


April Employment rose by 164,000
Unemployment Rate edged down to 3.9%

Posted: May 4, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 164,000 in April, and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, manufacturing, health care, and mining.

Household Survey Data
In April, the unemployment rate edged down to 3.9 percent, following 6 months at 4.1 percent. The number of unemployed persons, at 6.3 million, also edged down over the month. ...



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