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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 201809



University of Michigan Consumer Confidence rose in September to 100.1
Posted: September 28, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer sentiment remained at very favorable levels in September, with the index topping 100 for only the third time since January 2004, according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

Most of the September gain was among households with incomes in the bottom third, whose index value of 96.3 was the highest since November 2000, said U-M economist Richard Curtin, director of the surveys. ...


Chicago Purchasing Managers Index down 3.2 points to 60.4 in September
Posted: September 28, 2018 at 09:45 AM (Friday)

The MNI Chicago Business Barometer fell to a five-month low of 60.4 in September, down 3.2 points from August’s 63.6.

Business operations continued to improve at a solid clip, despite activity decelerating for a second straight month. Moderations in both output and new orders, alongside weaker hiring sentiment, were accountable for the Barometer’s decline, offsetting slightly longer ...


Personal Income increased 0.3%, Spending increased 0.3%
Posted: September 28, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Personal income increased $60.3 billion (0.3 percent) in August according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $51.4 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $46.4 billion ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity expanded at a solid pace again in September
Posted: September 27, 2018 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity expanded at a solid pace again in September, though growth was somewhat slower than the rapid rate earlier in the year. Expectations for future growth remained positive, despite continued concerns about trade and tariffs. Price indexes ...


Pending Home Sales Index decreased 1.8% in August
Posted: September 27, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Pending home sales fell slightly in August and have now decreased on an annual basis for eight straight months, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, decreased 1.8 percent to 104.2 in August from 106.1 in July. With last month’s decline, contract signings are now down 2.3 percent year-over-year. ...


2Q2018 GDP final estimate increased 4.2%
Posted: September 27, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.2 percent in the second quarter of 2018 (table 1), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.2 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was also 4.2 percent. With this third estimate for the second quarter, the general picture ...


August New Orders for Durable Goods increased 4.5%, Ex-Trans up 0.1%
Posted: September 27, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in August increased $11.1 billion or 4.5 percent to $259.6 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up two of the last three months, followed a 1.2 percent July decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.1 percent. Excluding defense, new orders ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 12,000 to 214,000
Posted: September 27, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending September 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 214,000, an increase of 12,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 201,000 to 202,000. The 4-week moving average was 206,250, an increase of 250 from the previous week's revised average. ...


FOMC target funds rate increased to 2.00% - 2.25%
Posted: September 26, 2018 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in August indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a strong rate. Job gains have been strong, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has stayed low. Household spending and business fixed investment ...


New Home Sales in August at annual rate of 629,000
Posted: September 26, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

New Home Sales
Sales of new single-family houses in August 2018 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 629,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 3.5 percent (±13.7 percent)* above the revised July rate of 608,000 and is 12.7 percent ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: September 26, 2018 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 2.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 21, 2018.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 2.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 2 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 3 ...


Consumer Confidence Increased in September to 138.4
Posted: September 25, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased in September, following a large improvement in August. The Index now stands at 138.4 (1985=100), up from 134.7 in August. The Present Situation Index improved marginally from 172.8 to 173.1, while the Expectations Index surged from 109.3 last month to 115.3 ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity Index rose from 24 to 29 in September
Posted: September 25, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity was robust in September, according to results of the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite index rose from 24 in August to 29 in September, buoyed by increases in shipments and new orders, while the index of the third component, employment, dropped. Survey respondents ...


S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices gained 0.4% in July
Posted: September 25, 2018 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for July 2018 shows that home prices continued their rise across the country over the last 12 months.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 6.0% annual gain in July, down from 6.2% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 5.5%, down from 6.0% in the previous ...


Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Activity Suggest Continued to Expand in September
Posted: September 25, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Responses to the September Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest that nonmanufacturing activity continued to expand in the region. The firm-level index of general activity, new orders, and sales/revenues all remained elevated, while the full-time employment index continued its recent climb. The respondents continued to report ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity Continued to Expand in September
Posted: September 24, 2018 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity continued to expand in September, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, dipped six points to 23.3, indicating output growth continued but at a slower pace than ...


Chicago Fed National Activity Points to steady economic growth in August
Posted: September 24, 2018 at 08:57 AM (Monday)

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) was unchanged at +0.18 in August. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from July, and two of the four categories made positive contributions to the index in August. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, rose to +0.24 in August from +0.02 ...


U.S. Leading Economic Index increased 0.4% in August
Posted: September 20, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI)for the U.S. increased 0.4 percent in August to 111.2 (2016 = 100), following a 0.7 percent increase in July, and a 0.5 percent increase in June. The leading economic index is now well above its previous peak (March ...


Existing-Home Sales Unch% in August
Posted: September 20, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Existing-home sales remained steady in August after four straight months of decline, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Sales gains in the Northeast and Midwest canceled out downturns in the South and West.

Total existing-home sales1, https://www.nar.realtor/existing-home-sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, did not change from July and remained at a seasonally adjusted rate of 5.34 million in August. ...


Philadelphia Fed Outlook Reported Activity continued to grow in September
Posted: September 20, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Regional manufacturing activity continued to grow in September, according to results from this month’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s broad indicators for general activity, new orders, shipments, and employment remained positive and increased from their readings in August. The survey’s respondents reported diminished ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 3,000 to 201,000
Posted: September 20, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending September 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 201,000, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 204,000. This is the lowest level for initial claims since November 15, 1969 when it was 197,000. The 4-week moving average was 205,750, a decrease of 2,250 from the previous ...


2Q2018 Current Account Deficit Decreased
Posted: September 19, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The U.S. current-account deficit decreased to $101.5 billion (preliminary) in the second quarter of 2018 from $121.7 billion (revised) in the first quarter of 2018, according to statistics released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The deficit was 2.0 percent of current-dollar gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter, down ...


August Housing Starts increased 9.2%, Permits down 5.7%
Posted: September 19, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Building Permits
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,229,000. This is 5.7 percent (±1.6 percent) below the revised July rate of 1,303,000 and is 5.5 percent (±1.6 percent) below the August 2017 rate of 1,300,000. Single-family authorizations in August were at a ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: September 19, 2018 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 1.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 14, 2018. Last week's results included an adjustment for the Labor ...


Treasury International Capital Data for July 2018
Posted: September 18, 2018 at 04:00 PM (Tuesday)

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for July 2018. The sum total in July of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a net TIC inflow of $52.2 billion. Of this, net foreign private inflows were $71.6 billion, and net ...


Builder Confidence remained unchanged at 67 in September
Posted: September 18, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes remained unchanged at a solid 67 reading in September on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI).

“Despite rising affordability concerns, builders continue to report firm demand for housing, especially as millennials and other newcomers enter the market,” said NAHB Chairman Randy Noel, a custom home builder from LaPlace, La. “The recent decline in lumber prices from ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions expanded at a solid clip in September
Posted: September 17, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Business activity continued to grow at a solid clip in New York State, according to firms responding to the September 2018 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index showed ongoing strength, but moved down seven points to 19.0, pointing to a slower pace of growth than last month. New orders and shipments ...


Business Inventories up 0.6% in July
Posted: September 14, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for July, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,454.1 billion, up 0.2 percent (±0.1 percent) from June 2018 and was up 8.1 percent (±1.2 percent) from ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Preliminary September Results at 100.8
Posted: September 14, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer sentiment posted a robust rise in early September, reaching 100.8, the second highest level since 2004-only behind the March 2018 reading of 101.4. Importantly, the gains were widespread across all major socioeconomic subgroups. The Expectations Index reached its highest level since July 2004, largely due to more favorable prospects ...


Industrial Production rose 0.4%
Capacity Utilization moved up to 78.1%

Posted: September 14, 2018 at 09:15 AM (Friday)

Industrial production rose 0.4 percent in August for its third consecutive monthly increase. Manufacturing output moved up 0.2 percent on the strength of a 4.0 percent rise for motor vehicles and parts; motor vehicle assemblies jumped to an annual rate of 11.5 million units, the strongest reading since April. Excluding the gain in motor ...


U.S. Import Price Index declined 0.6% in August
Posted: September 14, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

U.S. import prices declined 0.6 percent in August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, following a 0.1-percent decrease the previous month. Falling prices for both fuel and nonfuel imports contributed to the August decline. Prices for U.S. exports edged down 0.1 percent, after decreasing 0.5 percent in ...


U.S. Retail Sales for August Increase 0.1%, Ex-Auto up 0.3%
Posted: September 14, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August 2018, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $509.0 billion, an increase of 0.1 percent (±0.4 percent)* from the previous month, and 6.6 percent (±0.5 percent) above August 2017. Total sales for the June ...


Consumer Price Index increased 0.2% in August, Ex Fd & Engy rose 0.1%
Posted: September 13, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in August on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.7 percent before ...


Real Average Hourly Earnings increased 0.1% in August
Posted: September 13, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.1 percent from July to August, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from a 0.4-percent increase in average hourly earnings combined with a 0.2-percent increase in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 1,000 to 204,000
Posted: September 13, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending September 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 204,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since December 6, 1969 when it was 202,000. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 203,000 to 205,000. The 4-week ...


Beige Book: Economic Activity continued to expand at a moderate pace
Posted: September 12, 2018 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Reports from the Federal Reserve Districts suggested that the economy expanded at a moderate pace through the end of August. Dallas reported relatively brisk growth, while Philadelphia, St. Louis, and Kansas City indicated somewhat below average growth. Consumer spending continued to grow at a modest pace since the last report, and ...


Producer Price Index declined -0.1% in August, ex Fd & Engy up 0.1%
Posted: September 12, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The Producer Price Index for final demand declined 0.1 percent in August, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices were unchanged in July and increased 0.3 percent in June. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index rose 2.8 percent for the 12 months ended ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: September 12, 2018 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 1.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 7, 2018. This week's results include an adjustment for the Labor Day holiday.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 13 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased six ...


Job Openings edged up to 6.9 million in July
Posted: September 11, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The number of job openings was little changed at 6.9 million on the last business day of July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.5 million, respectively. Within separations, the quits rate was little changed at 2.4 percent and the layoffs ...


Wholesale Inventories up 0.6% in July
Posted: September 11, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

July 2018 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $505.6 billion, virtually unchanged (±0.2 percent)* from the revised June level, but were up 9.8 percent (±3.5 percent) from the July 2017 level. The ...


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index soared 1.6 points to 108.8 in August
Posted: September 11, 2018 at 07:00 AM (Tuesday)

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index soared to 108.8 in August, a new record in the survey’s 45-year history, topping the July 1983 highwater mark of 108. The record-breaking figure is driven by small business owners executing on the plans they’ve put in place due to dramatic changes in the nation’s ...


Consumer Credit Increased at an annual rate of 5.00%
Posted: September 10, 2018 at 03:00 PM (Monday)

In July, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 1-1/2 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 6-1/2 percent.

...


Employment Trends Index increased in August to 110.88
Posted: September 10, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased in August, after increasing in July. The index now stands at 110.88, up from 109.58 (a downward revision) in July. The change represents a 6.9 percent gain in the ETI compared to a year ago.

“The Employment Trends Index continues to accelerate, with this month’s year-over-year increase being the strongest since May 2012,” said Gad Levanon, Chief Economist, North America, at The Conference Board. “This supports our projections for strong economic growth in the ...


August Employment increased by 201,000
Unemployment Rate unchanged at 3.9%

Posted: September 7, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 201,000 in August, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, health care, wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, ...


ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 58.5% in August
Posted: September 6, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in August for the 103rd consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The NMI® registered 58.5 percent, which is 2.8 percentage points higher than the July reading of 55.7 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a faster rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased to 60.7 percent, 4.2 ...


New orders for manufactured goods decreased 1.7% in July
Posted: September 6, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

New orders for manufactured goods in July, down following two consecutive monthly increases, decreased $3.9 billion or 0.8 percent to $497.8 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 0.6 percent June increase. Shipments, up fourteen of the last fifteen months, increased less than $0.1 billion or virtually unchanged to ...


2Q2018 Productivity Growth Increased 2.9%
Posted: September 6, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 2.9 percent during the second quarter of 2018, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output increased 5.0 percent and hours worked increased 2.0 percent. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates.) From the second quarter of 2017 to ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 10,000 to 203,000
Posted: September 6, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending September 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 203,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 213,000. This is the lowest level for initial claims since December 6, 1969 when it was 202,000. The 4-week moving average was 209,500, a decrease of 2,750 from the previous ...


ADP National Employment Report increased by 163,000 jobs in August
Posted: September 6, 2018 at 08:15 AM (Thursday)

Private sector employment increased by 163,000 jobs from July to August according to the August ADP National Employment Report®.

“Although we saw a small slowdown in job growth the market remains incredibly dynamic,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “Midsized businesses continue to be the engine of growth, adding nearly 70 percent of all jobs this month, ...


Challenger Layoffs Rose to 38,472 in August
Posted: September 6, 2018 at 07:30 AM (Thursday)

The pace of downsizing in August rose to the third-highest total for the year, as U.S.-based employers announced plans to cut 38,472 jobs, according to a report released Thursday by global outplacement and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

August’s job cut plans are the highest since March, when 60,357 cuts were recorded, and the third highest behind January’s total of 44,653. It is the third time this year that job cuts were higher than the corresponding month last year. ...



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