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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 201901



Treasury International Capital Data for November 2018
Posted: January 31, 2019 at 04:00 PM (Thursday)

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for November 2018. The sum total in November of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a net TIC inflow of $31.0 billion. Of this, net foreign private inflows were $50.3 billion, and ...


New Home Sales in November at annual rate of 657,000
Posted: January 31, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

New Home Sales
Sales of new single‐family houses in November 2018 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 657,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 16.9 percent (±19.9 percent)* above the revised October rate of 562,000, but is 7.7 ...


Chicago Purchasing Managers Index down 7.1 points to 56.7 in January
Posted: January 31, 2019 at 09:45 AM (Thursday)

The MNI Chicago Business Barometer dropped to 56.7 in January, down 7.1 points from December’s downwardly adjusted 63.8.

Four out of the five Barometer sub-components started the year lower. Notable falls in Production and New Orders contributed to most of the 7.1-point fall in the headline index. ...


Employment Cost Index up 0.7% in 4Q2018
Posted: January 31, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.7 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in December 2018, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries (which make up about 70 percent of compensation costs) increased 0.6 percent and benefit costs (which make up the remaining 30 percent ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 53,000 to 253,000
Posted: January 31, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending January 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 253,000, an increase of 53,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the highest level for initial claims since September 30, 2017 when it was 254,000. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 199,000 to 200,000. The 4-week ...


Challenger Layoffs announced 52,988 cuts in January
Posted: January 31, 2019 at 07:30 AM (Thursday)

Employers at U.S.-based companies announced plans to cut 52,988 jobs from their payrolls in January, 20.7 percent higher than the 43,884 announced in December, according to a report released Thursday from global outplacement and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & ...


FOMC target funds rate maintained at 2.25% - 2.50%
Posted: January 30, 2019 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a solid rate. Job gains have been strong, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Household spending has continued to grow ...


Pending Home Sales Index Decreased 2.2% in December
Posted: January 30, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Pending home sales declined as a whole in December, but for the second straight month the Western region experienced a slight increase, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, decreased 2.2 percent to 99.0 in December, down from 101.2 in November. Additionally, year-over-year contract signings fell 9.8 percent, making this the twelfth straight month of annual ...


ADP National Employment Report increased by 213,000 jobs in January
Posted: January 30, 2019 at 08:15 AM (Wednesday)

Private sector employment increased by 213,000 jobs from December to January according to the January ADP National Employment Report®.

“The labor market has continued its pattern of strong growth with little sign of a slowdown in sight,“ said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “We saw significant growth in nearly all industries, with manufacturing adding the most jobs ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: January 30, 2019 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 3.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 25, 2019. This week's results include an adjustment for the Martin Luther King Jr. ...


Consumer Confidence Decreased in January to 120.2
Posted: January 29, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® decreased in January, following a decline in December. The Index now stands at 120.2 (1985=100), down from 126.6 in December. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions – declined marginally, from 169.9 to 169.6. The Expectations ...


S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices gained 0.1% in November
Posted: January 29, 2019 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for November 2018 shows that the rate of home price increases across the U.S. has continued to slow.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.2% annual gain in November, down from 5.3% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 4.3%, down from 4.7% in ...


Paychex-IHS Small Business Jobs Index increased to 98.92 in January
Posted: January 29, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The Paychex | IHS Markit Small Business Employment Watch started the new year with slight gains in small business job and hourly earnings growth. The Small Business Jobs Index increased 0.04 percent in January to 98.92, though it remains down 0.96 year-over-year. At 2.49 percent ($0.65) in January, hourly earnings growth has improved each ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity Continued to Expand in January
Posted: January 28, 2019 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity continued to expand in January, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose from 7.3 to 14.5, indicating an acceleration in ...


Chicago Fed National Activity Points to a slight increase in economic growth in December
Posted: January 28, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) moved up slightly to +0.27 in December from +0.21 in November. Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from November, and two of the four categories made positive contributions to the index in December. ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity grew modestly in January
Posted: January 24, 2019 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity continued to grow modestly in January, and expectations for future growth remained solid. The month-over-month finished goods price index rose, while the raw materials price index edged lower. Price expectations for the next six months ...


U.S. Leading Economic Index declined 0.1% in December
Posted: January 24, 2019 at 10:30 AM (Thursday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI)for the U.S. declined 0.1 percent in December to 111.7 (2016 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in November, and a 0.3 percent decline in October.

“The US LEI declined slightly in December and the recent moderation in the LEI suggests that the US economic growth rate may slow down this year,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “While the effects of the government shutdown ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 13,000 to 199,000
Posted: January 24, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending January 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 199,000, a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since November 15, 1969 when it was 197,000. The previous week's level was revised down by 1,000 from 213,000 to 212,000. The 4-week ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity Index rose from −8 to −2 in January
Posted: January 23, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity was soft in January, according to the latest survey from the Richmond Fed. The composite index rose from −8 in December to −2 in January but continued to indicate weak growth. The rise from December came from increases in the component indexes of employment and shipments, although the shipments index ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: January 23, 2019 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 2.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 18, 2019.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 0.3 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 5 ...


Existing-Home Sales decreased 6.4% in December
Posted: January 22, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

After two consecutive months of increases, existing-home sales declined in the month of December, according to the National Association of Realtors®. None of the four major U.S. regions saw a gain in sales activity last month.

Total existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, decreased 6.4 percent from November to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.99 million in December. Sales are now down 10.3 percent from a year ago (5.56 ...


Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Activity Suggest Continued Moderation in January
Posted: January 22, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Responses to the January Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest continued moderation in nonmanufacturing activity in the region. The indexes for general activity at the firm level, new orders, sales/revenues, and full-time employment all fell for the second consecutive month. The firms continued to report overall increases in prices ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Preliminary January Results at 90.7
Posted: January 18, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer sentiment declined in early January to its lowest level since Trump was elected. The decline was primarily focused on prospects for the domestic economy, with the year-ahead outlook for the national economy judged the worst since mid 2014. The loss was due to a host of issues including the partial government shutdown, the impact ...


Industrial Production rose 0.4%
Capacity Utilization increased to 78.7%

Posted: January 18, 2019 at 09:15 AM (Friday)

Industrial production increased 0.3 percent in December after rising 0.4 percent in November. For the fourth quarter as a whole, total industrial production moved up at an annual rate of 3.8 percent. In December, manufacturing output increased 1.1 percent, its largest gain since February 2018. The output of mines rose 1.5 percent, but the ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 3,000 to 213,000
Posted: January 17, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending January 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 213,000, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 216,000. The 4-week moving average was 220,750, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's unrevised average ...


Philadelphia Fed Outlook Reported Activity continued to grow in January
Posted: January 17, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Manufacturing activity in the region continued to grow, according to results from the January Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s broad indicators remained positive, although their movements were mixed again this month: The general activity and new orders indicators increased from their readings last month, while the indicators ...


Builder Confidence rose two points to 58 in January
Posted: January 16, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Buoyed by falling mortgage rates, builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes rose two points to 58 in January on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI).

“The gradual decline in mortgage rates in recent weeks helped to sustain builder sentiment,” said NAHB Chairman Randy Noel, a custom home builder from LaPlace, La. “Low unemployment, solid job growth and favorable demographics should support housing demand in the coming ...


U.S. Import Price Index decreased 1.0% in December
Posted: January 16, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Prices for U.S. imports decreased 1.0 percent in December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, after a 1.9-percent fall the previous month. Lower fuel prices drove the decline in December, and nonfuel prices recorded no change. U.S. export prices fell 0.6 percent in December following a 0.8-percent drop ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: January 16, 2019 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 13.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 11, 2019.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 13.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier to its highest level since February 2018. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 45 percent compared with the previous ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions Continues to Slow in January
Posted: January 15, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Business activity grew slightly in New York State, according to firms responding to the January 2019 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell eight points to 3.9, its lowest level in well over a year. New orders increased at a slower pace than in recent months, while shipments continued to ...


Producer Price Index decreased 0.2% in December, ex Fd & Engy unch%
Posted: January 15, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The Producer Price Index for final demand fell 0.2 percent in December, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices advanced 0.1 percent in November and 0.6 percent in October. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index moved up 2.5 percent in 2018, the same as ...


Consumer Price Index decreased 0.1% in December, Ex Fd & Engy rose 0.2%
Posted: January 11, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) declined 0.1 percent in December on a seasonally adjusted basis after being unchanged in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.9 percent before ...


Real Average Hourly Earnings increased 0.5% in December
Posted: January 11, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.5 percent from November to December, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from a 0.4-percent increase in average hourly earnings combined with a 0.1-percent decrease in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 17,000 to 216,000
Posted: January 10, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending January 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 216,000, a decrease of 17,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 231,000 to 233,000. The 4-week moving average was 221,750, an increase of 2,500 from the previous week's revised average. ...


Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine Index increased in December to 101.7
Posted: January 9, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine (HWOL) Index increased in December. The Index now stands at 101.7 (July 2018=100), up from 99.3 in November.

“December’s increase in the HWOL Index reversed the declines in October and November,” said Gad Levanon, Chief Economist, North America, at The Conference Board. “As of mid-December, the negative developments in financial markets show no signs of significantly impacting ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: January 9, 2019 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 23.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 4, 2019. This week's results include an adjustment for the New Year's ...


Consumer Credit Increased at an annual rate of 6.75%
Posted: January 8, 2019 at 03:00 PM (Tuesday)

In November, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6-3/4 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 5-1/2 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 7 percent.

...


Job Openings fell to 6.9 million in November
Posted: January 8, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The number of job openings fell to 6.9 million on the last business day of November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires edged down to 5.7 million, quits edged down to 3.4 million, and total separations were little changed at 5.5 million. Within separations, the quits rate and the layoffs and discharges ...


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index down 0.4 points to 104.4 in December
Posted: January 8, 2019 at 07:00 AM (Tuesday)

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index remained basically unchanged in December, drifting down 0.4 points to 104.4, according to the report released today. Unfilled jobs and the lack of qualified applicants continue to be a primary driver, with job openings setting a record high and job creation plans strengthening. Reports of higher ...


Employment Trends Index Increased in December to 111.61
Posted: January 7, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased in December, following a minor decline in November. The index now stands at 111.61, up from 110.23 in November. The increase marks a 5.4 percent gain in the ETI over the past 12 months.

“The Employment Trends Index rose sharply in December, reversing the declines in recent months, suggesting that employment will continue to expand in the coming months,” said Gad Levanon, Chief Economist, North America, at The Conference Board. “With gloom and doom views ...


ISM Non-Manufacturing Index decreased to 57.6% in December
Posted: January 7, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in December for the 107th consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “The NMI® registered 57.6 percent, which is 3.1 percentage points lower than the November reading of ...


December Employment increased by 312,000
Unemployment Rate rose to 3.9%

Posted: January 4, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 312,000 in December, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, food services and drinking places, construction, manufacturing, and ...


December Manufacturing ISM decreased to 54.1
Posted: January 3, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in December, and the overall economy grew for the 116th consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® .

The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “The December PMI® registered 54.1 percent, a decrease of 5.2 percentage points from the November reading of 59.3 ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 10,000 to 231,000
Posted: January 3, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending December 29, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 231,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 5,000 from 216,000 to 221,000. The 4-week moving average was 218,750, a decrease of 500 from the previous week's revised average. ...


New York Purchasing Managers Business Activity fell to 65.4 in December
Posted: January 3, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In December, New York City purchasing managers indicated lower conditions in all indices but one, Current Revenues, according to the survey taken by the Institute for Supply Management-New York.

New York Metro
Current Business Conditions reached a six-month low, coming in at 65.4. Current conditions have fallen for four straight months. Despite the above facts, this month marks the highest December since 2014, when current business conditions were at 70.8. The ...


ADP National Employment Report increased by 271,000 jobs in December
Posted: January 3, 2019 at 08:15 AM (Thursday)

Private sector employment increased by 271,000 jobs from November to December according to the December ADP National Employment Report®.

“We wrapped up 2018 with another month of significant growth in the labor market,“ said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “Although there were increases in most sectors, the busy holiday season greatly impacted both trade and leisure ...


Challenger Layoffs Dropped to 43,884 in December, Total 2018 job cuts 538,659
Posted: January 3, 2019 at 07:00 AM (Thursday)

While December was quieter than the previous three months, as employers at U.S.-based companies announced plans to cut 43,884 workers from their payrolls during the month, the year-to-date total is nearly 29 percent higher than last year and the highest total since 2015, according to a report released Thursday by global outplacement and ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: January 3, 2019 at 07:00 AM (Thursday)

Mortgage applications decreased 9.8 percent from two weeks earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 28, 2018. The results include adjustments to account for the ...


Paychex-IHS Small Business Jobs Index down to 98.88 in December
Posted: January 2, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The Paychex | IHS Markit Small Business Employment Watch closed the year with a decline in small business job growth and continued, moderate growth in hourly earnings. The Small Business Jobs Index stands at 98.88 in December, down 0.13 percent for the month and 0.82 percent for the year. At $26.95, hourly earnings in December gained 2.42 ...



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