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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 201902



Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity grew slightly in February
Posted: February 28, 2019 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity was up only slightly in February, while expectations for future activity remained positive but were slightly lower than in previous months. The month-over-month finished goods and raw materials price indexes both eased down in February. Price expectations for the next six months also ...


Chicago Purchasing Managers Index jumped 8 points to 64.7 in February
Posted: February 28, 2019 at 09:45 AM (Thursday)

The MNI Chicago Business Barometer rose by 8 points to 64.7 in February, to the highest since December 2017. This month’s gain was last matched in February 2017 and surpassed only by the 12.5 points hike recorded in January 2016.

Optimism returned, with most Barometer components back at December 2018’s level after last month’s dip, indicating temporary factors at play in January. February’s increase was led by four of the five Barometer components, with only Supplier Deliveries receding. ...


4Q2018 GDP initial estimate increased 2.6%
Posted: February 28, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2018 (table 1), according to the "initial" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.4 percent.

Due to the recent partial government shutdown, this initial report for the fourth quarter and annual GDP for 2018 replaces the release of the "advance" estimate originally scheduled for January 30th and the "second" estimate originally scheduled for February 28th. See the ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 8,000 to 225,000
Posted: February 28, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending February 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 225,000, an increase of 8,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 216,000 to 217,000. The 4-week moving average was 229,000, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week's revised average. ...


Pending Home Sales Index Increased 4.6% in January
Posted: February 27, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Pending home sales rebounded strongly in January, according to the National Association of Realtors®. All four major regions saw growth last month, including the largest surge in the South.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, increased 4.6 percent to 103.2 in January, up from 98.7 in December. Year-over-year contract signings, however, declined 2.3 percent, making this the thirteenth straight month of annual ...


New orders for manufactured goods increased 0.1% in December
Posted: February 27, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

New orders for manufactured goods in December, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, increased $0.3 billion or 0.1 percent to $499.9 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 0.5 percent November decrease. Shipments, down three consecutive months, decreased $0.9 billion or 0.2 percent to $504.9 billion. ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: February 27, 2019 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 5.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 22, 2019. This week's results include an adjustment for the Washington's Birthday (Presidents' ...


Consumer Confidence Increased in February to 131.4
Posted: February 26, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased in February, following a decline in January. The Index now stands at 131.4 (1985=100), up from 121.7 in January. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions – improved, from 170.2 to 173.5. The Expectations Index – based ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity Index rose from −2 to 16 in February
Posted: February 26, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity strengthened in February, according to the latest survey from the Richmond Fed. The composite index rose from −2 in January to 16 in February, buoyed by increases in the indexes for shipments and new orders. The employment index fell slightly in February but remained in expansionary territory. Meanwhile, ...


S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices decreased 0.1% in December
Posted: February 26, 2019 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for December 2018 shows that the rate of home price increases across the U.S. has continued to slow.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 4.7% annual gain in December, down from 5.1% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 3.8%, down from 4.2% in ...


December Housing Starts decreased 11.2%, Permits up 0.3%
Posted: February 26, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Building Permits
Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,326,000. This is 0.3 percent (±1.2 percent)* above the revised November rate of 1,322,000 and is 0.5 percent (±1.1 percent)* above the December 2017 rate of 1,320,000. Single‐family authorizations in ...


Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Activity Suggest suggest improvement in February
Posted: February 26, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Responses to the February Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest that nonmanufacturing activity improved in the region. The indexes for general activity at the firm level, new orders, and sales/revenues all rebounded from last month’s particularly low readings. In addition, the employment indicators increased, but the indexes for ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity Continued to Expand in February
Posted: February 25, 2019 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity continued to expand in February, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, slipped four points to 10.1, indicating a slight deceleration in ...


Wholesale Inventories up 1.1% in December
Posted: February 25, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

December 2018 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading day differences but not for price changes, were $497.2 billion, down 1.0 percent (±0.5 percent) from the revised November level, but were up 1.0 percent (±0.7 percent) from the December 2017 level. ...


Chicago Fed National Activity Points to slower economic growth in January
Posted: February 25, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to –0.43 in January from +0.05 in December. One of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from December, and two of the four categories made negative contributions to the index in January. The index’s ...


U.S. Leading Economic Index declined 0.1% in January
Posted: February 21, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI)for theU.S. declined 0.1 percent in January (according to preliminary estimates) to 111.3 (2016 = 100), following no change in December, and a 0.1 percent increase in November.

“Based on preliminary data, the US LEI declined very slightly in January and December’s decline was revised up to no change,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “In January, the strengths in the financial components were offset by ...


Existing-Home Sales decreased 1.2% in January
Posted: February 21, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Existing-home sales experienced a minor drop for the third consecutive month in January, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Of the four major U.S. regions, only the Northeast saw an uptick in sales activity last month.

Total existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, decreased 1.2 percent from December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.94 million in January. Sales are now down 8.5 percent from a year ago (5.40 ...


December New Orders for Durable Goods increased 1.2%, Ex-Trans up 0.1%
Posted: February 21, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in December increased $3.0 billion or 1.2 percent to $254.4 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up two consecutive months, followed a 1.0 percent November increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.1 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased ...


Philadelphia Fed Outlook Reported Activity decreased in February
Posted: February 21, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Manufacturing conditions in the region weakened this month, according to firms responding to the February Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments fell into negative territory, but the indicator for employment remained positive. Input prices also moderated notably this month. ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 23,000 to 216,000
Posted: February 21, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending February 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 216,000, a decrease of 23,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 239,000. The 4-week moving average was 235,750, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 231,750. This is the highest level for this average since ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: February 20, 2019 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 3.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 15, 2019.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 3.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 7 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 6 ...


Builder Confidence rose 4 points to 62 in February
Posted: February 19, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes rose four points to 62 in February, according to the latest NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today in Las Vegas during the 75th annual International Builders’ Show.

“Ongoing reduction in mortgage rates in recent weeks coupled with continued strength in the job market are helping to fuel builder sentiment,” said NAHB Chairman Randy Noel. “In the aftermath of the fall slowdown, many builders are reporting positive expectations for the ...


Treasury International Capital Data for December 2018
Posted: February 15, 2019 at 04:00 PM (Friday)

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for December 2018. The sum total in December of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a net TIC outflow of $33.1 billion. Of this, net foreign private outflows were $2.3 billion, and ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Preliminary February Results at 95.5
Posted: February 15, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The early February gains reflect the end of the partial government shutdown as well as a more fundamental shift in consumer expectations due to the Fed's pause in raising interest rates. The lingering impact of the shutdown was responsible for some of the negative economic evaluations, and, at the time that these interviews were ...


Industrial Production decreased 0.6%
Capacity Utilization decreased to 78.2%

Posted: February 15, 2019 at 09:15 AM (Friday)

Industrial production decreased 0.6 percent in January after rising 0.1 percent in December. In January, manufacturing production fell 0.9 percent, primarily as a result of a large drop in motor vehicle assemblies; factory output excluding motor vehicles and parts decreased 0.2 percent. The indexes for mining and utilities moved up 0.1 percent ...


U.S. Import Price Index fell 0.5% in January
Posted: February 15, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

U.S. import prices fell 0.5 percent in January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, following a 1.0-percent drop in December and a 1.7-percent decrease in November. Both fuel and nonfuel prices contributed to the January decline. Prices for U.S. exports decreased 0.6 percent for the second consecutive month ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions grew modestly in February
Posted: February 15, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Business activity grew modestly in New York State, according to firms responding to the February 2019 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index moved up five points to 8.8. New orders and shipments also increased modestly. Delivery times were slightly longer, and inventories held steady. Labor ...


Business Inventories down 0.1% in November
Posted: February 14, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for November, adjusted for seasonal and trading day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,462.5 billion, down 0.3 percent (±0.2 percent) from October 2018, but was up 4.2 percent (±1.2 percent) from ...


Producer Price Index edged down 0.1% in January, ex Fd & Engy rose 0.2%
Posted: February 14, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The Producer Price Index for final demand edged down 0.1 percent in January, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices also fell 0.1 percent in December and inched up 0.1 percent in November. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index advanced 2.0 percent for the 12 months ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 4,000 to 239,000
Posted: February 14, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending February 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 239,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 234,000 to 235,000. The 4-week moving average was 231,750, an increase of 6,750 from the previous week's revised average. This ...


U.S. Retail Sales for December Decrease 1.2%, Ex-Auto down 1.4%
Posted: February 14, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for December 2018, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $505.8 billion, a decrease of 1.2 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, but 2.3 percent (±0.5 percent) above December 2017. Total sales for the 12 months ...


Real Average Hourly Earnings increased 0.2% in January
Posted: February 13, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.2 percent from December to January, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from a 0.1-percent increase in average hourly earnings combined with no change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban ...


Consumer Price Index was unchanged in January, Ex Fd & Engy rose 0.2%
Posted: February 13, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.6 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The energy index declined for the third consecutive month, offsetting increases in the indexes for all items less food and energy and for food. All the major energy component indexes declined in January, with the gasoline index falling 5.5 percent. The food index increased ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: February 13, 2019 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 3.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 8, 2019.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 3.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 4 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 0.1 ...


Job Openings rose to 7.3 million in December
Posted: February 12, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The number of job openings reached a series high of 7.3 million on the last business day of December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and separations were little changed at 5.9 million and 5.5 million, respectively. Within separations, the quits rate was unchanged at 2.3 percent and the layoffs ...


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index slipped 3.2 points to 101.2 in January
Posted: February 12, 2019 at 07:00 AM (Tuesday)

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index slipped 3.2 points in January, as owners continued hiring and investing, but expressed rising concern about future economic growth. The 101.2 reading, the lowest since the weeks leading up to the 2016 elections, remains well above the historical average of 98, but indicates uncertainty among small ...


Consumer Credit Increased at an annual rate of 5.00%
Posted: February 7, 2019 at 03:00 PM (Thursday)

In 2018, consumer credit increased 5 percent, with revolving and nonrevolving credit increasing 2-3/4 percent and 5-1/2 percent, respectively. Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6-1/2 percent in the fourth quarter and at a rate of 5 percent ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 19,000 to 234,000
Posted: February 7, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending February 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 234,000, a decrease of 19,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 253,000. The 4-week moving average was 224,750, an increase of 4,500 from the previous week's unrevised average ...


Goods and Services Deficit Decreased in November 2018
Posted: February 6, 2019 at 08:30 PM (Wednesday)

The nation's international trade deficit in goods and services decreased to $49.3 billion in November from $55.7 billion in October (revised), as imports decreased more than exports. The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $49.3 billion in November, down $6.4 ...


Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine Index increased in January to 102.0
Posted: February 6, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

The Conference Board Experimental Help Wanted OnLine (HWOL) Index increased in January. The Index now stands at 102.0 (July 2018=100), up from 101.6 in December.

“Unlike in 2016 where there was a clear drop in online job ads during the economic slowdown, the HWOL Index rose in January despite the current financial market turmoil. This indicates a reduced likelihood of a major slowdown in the US economy,” said Gad Levanon, Chief ...


4Q2018 Productivity Growth Increased 1.3%
Posted: February 6, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Manufacturing sector labor productivity increased 1.3 percent during the fourth quarter of 2018, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output increased 2.3 percent and hours worked increased 1.0 percent. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates.) From the fourth quarter of 2017 to ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: February 6, 2019 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 2.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 1, 2019. The previous week's results included an adjustment for the Martin Luther King Jr. ...


ISM Non-Manufacturing Index decreased to 56.7% in January
Posted: February 5, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in January for the 108th consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “The NMI® registered 56.7 percent, which is 1.3 percentage points lower than the December reading of ...


New orders for manufactured goods decreased 0.6% in November
Posted: February 4, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

New orders for manufactured goods in November, down two consecutive months, decreased $3.1 billion or 0.6 percent to $499.2 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 2.1 percent October decrease. Shipments, down two consecutive months, decreased $3.2 billion or 0.6 percent to $505.1 billion. This followed a 0.1 ...


Employment Trends Index decreased in January to 109.56
Posted: February 4, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) decreased in January, following an increase in December. The index now stands at 109.56, down from 110.96 (a downward revision) in December. The decrease marks a 3.4 percent gain in the ETI over the past 12 months.

“Due to the government shutdown, some of the components in this month’s Employment Trends Index release were unavailable or biased. Therefore, we encourage users to take this month’s decline with some caution,” said Gad Levanon, Chief Economist, North America, at The ...


New York Purchasing Managers Business Activity fell to 63.4 in January
Posted: February 4, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

In January, New York City purchasing managers indicated short term decreases in the face of longer term optimism, according to the survey taken by the Institute for Supply Management-New York.

New York Metro
Current Business Conditions fell for the 5th consecutive month, coming in at 63.4 in January, down from 65.4 in December. The Six-Month Outlook increased slightly after the 16.3 point drop reported in last month. Outlook increased to 58.3 in January, up from ...


January Manufacturing ISM increased to 56.6
Posted: February 1, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in January, and the overall economy grew for the 117th consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “The January PMI® registered 56.6 percent, an increase of 2.3 percentage points from the December reading of 54.3 ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence down in January to 91.2
Posted: February 1, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer sentiment fell in January to its lowest level since Donald Trump was elected, according to the latest University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

The decline was due to consumers’ assessments about how the partial government shutdown had impacted economic conditions. The temporary end of the shutdown had only a small positive impact since the basic issues have not been resolved, only postponed, said U-M economist ...


Construction Spending increased 0.8% in November
Posted: February 1, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Total Construction
Construction spending during November 2018 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,299.9 billion, 0.8 percent (±1.3 percent)* above the revised October estimate of $1,289.7 billion. The November figure is 3.4 percent (±1.5 percent) above the November 2017 estimate of $1,257.3 billion. During the first ...


Wholesale Inventories up 0.3% in November
Posted: February 1, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

November 2018 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $505.3 billion, down 0.6 percent (±0.4 percent) from the revised October level, but were up 4.0 percent (±3.5 percent) from the November 2017 level. ...



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National Association for Business Economics
NABE

Founded in 1920, the National Bureau of Economic Research is a private, nonprofit, nonpartisan research organization dedicated to promoting a greater understanding of how the economy works.

CFA Institute

The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission was created to examine the causes, domestic and global, of the current financial and economic crisis in the United States.

The Moment of Truth: Report of the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform