New Home Sales
Sales of new single‐family houses in February 2019 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 667,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 4.9 percent (±14.4 percent)* above the revised January rate of 636,000 and is 0.6 percent ...

The March gain in the Consumer Sentiment Index was entirely due to households with incomes in the bottom two-thirds of the income distribution, whereas the February gain was concentrated among upper income households, according to the latest University of Michigan Surveys ...

The MNI Chicago Business Barometer fell 6 points to 58.7 in March from 64.7, partially offsetting last month’s gain.

Looking at the three-month average provides a better guide this month to the underlying trend in the economy with activity a touch lower in Q1 than in Q4. The Barometer averaged 60.0 in Q1, down 3.5% on Q4 2018 and 3.3% on Q1 2018. ...

Personal Income and Outlays, January 2019
Personal income decreased $22.9 billion (-0.1 percent) in January according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income decreased $34.9 billion (-0.2 percent), and personal consumption expenditures increased $8.6 billion ...

Pending home sales endured a minor drop in February, according to the National Association of Realtors®. The four major regions were split last month, as the South and West saw a bump in contract activity and the Northeast and Midwest reported slight declines.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, decreased 1.0 percent to 101.9 in February, down from 102.9 in January. Year-over-year contract signings declined 4.9 percent, making this the fourteenth straight month of annual ...

Tenth District manufacturing activity accelerated moderately in March, and expectations for future activity also increased. The month-over-month finished goods and raw materials price indexes both declined in March, while price expectations for the next six months ...

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2018 (table 1), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.4 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "initial" estimate issued last month. In the initial estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.6 percent. With this estimate for the fourth quarter, the general picture of ...

In the week ending March 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 211,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 5,000 from 221,000 to 216,000. The 4-week moving average was 217,250, a decrease of 3,250 from the previous week's revised average. ...

The U.S. current-account deficit increased to $134.4 billion (preliminary) in the fourth quarter of 2018 from $126.6 billion (revised) in the third quarter of 2018, according to statistics released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The deficit was 2.6 percent of current-dollar gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter, up from ...

The nation's international trade deficit in goods and services decreased to $51.1 billion in January from $59.9 billion in December (revised), as exports increased and imports decreased. The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $51.1 billion in January, down ...

Mortgage applications increased 8.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 22, 2019.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 8.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 9 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 12 ...

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined in March, after increasing in February. The Index now stands at 124.1 (1985=100), down from 131.4 in February. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions – declined, from 172.8 to 160.6. The Expectations Index – based ...

Fifth District manufacturing activity grew moderately in March, according to the latest survey from the Richmond Fed. The composite index fell from 16 in February to 10 in March but remained in expansionary territory. The fall came from drops in both the shipments and new orders indexes, but the third component, employment, increased. Firms ...

S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for January 2019 shows that the rate of home price increases across the U.S. has continued to slow.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 4.3% annual gain in January, down from 4.6% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 3.2%, down from 3.7% in ...

Building Permits
Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,296,000. This is 1.6 percent (±1.2 percent) below the revised January rate of 1,317,000 and is 2.0 percent (±1.7 percent) below the February 2018 rate of 1,323,000. Single‐family authorizations in February ...

Responses to the March Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest a continued return to expansion in nonmanufacturing activity in the region. The indexes for general activity at the firm level, new orders, sales/revenues, and full-time employment all rose for the second consecutive month. The firms continued to report overall increases ...

Texas factory activity continued to expand in Marc­h, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, held fairly steady at 11.5, indicating output growth continued at about the same pace as ...

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) edged down to –0.29 in February from –0.25 in January. Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from January, and three of the four categories made negative contributions to the index in February. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved down ...

January 2019 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading day differences but not for price changes, were $499.8 billion, up 0.5 percent (±0.7 percent)* from the revised December level and were up 2.7 percent (±0.7 percent) from the January 2018 level. ...

Existing-home sales rebounded strongly in February, experiencing the largest month-over-month gain since December 2015, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Three of the four major U.S. regions saw sales gains, while the Northeast remained unchanged from ...

Lower Near-Term Output Growth
The U.S. economy looks weaker now in the next few quarters than it did four months ago, according to 38 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters predict real GDP will grow at an annual rate of 1.5 percent this quarter and 2.4 percent next quarter, down from the ...

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI)for the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in February to 111.5 (2016 = 100), following no change in January, and a 0.1 percent decline in December.

“The US LEI increased in February for the first time in five months,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “February’s improvement was driven by accommodative financial conditions and a rebound in stock prices, which more than ...

In the week ending March 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 221,000, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 229,000 to 230,000. The 4-week moving average was 225,000, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's revised average. The ...

Manufacturing conditions in the region improved this month, according to firms responding to the March Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments returned to positive territory, while the indicator for employment remained positive. Price pressures also moderated, according to the ...

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January indicates that the labor market remains strong but that growth of economic activity has slowed from its solid rate in the fourth quarter. Payroll employment was little changed in February, but job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the ...

Mortgage applications increased 1.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 15, 2019.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 1.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 2 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 4 ...

New orders for manufactured goods in January, up two consecutive months, increased $0.3 billion or 0.1 percent to $500.5 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 0.1 percent December increase. Shipments, down four consecutive months, decreased $1.8 billion or 0.4 percent to $503.1 billion. This followed a 0.2 ...

Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes held steady at 62 in March, according to the latest National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today.

“Builders report the market is stabilizing following the slowdown at the end of 2018 and they anticipate a solid spring home buying season,” said NAHB Chairman Greg Ugalde, a home builder and developer from Torrington, Conn. ...

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for January 2019. The sum total in January of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a net TIC outflow of $143.7 billion. Of this, net foreign private outflows were $123.6 billion, and ...

The number of job openings was little changed at 7.6 million on the last business day of January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and separations were little changed at 5.8 million and 5.6 million, respectively. Within separations, the quits rate was unchanged at 2.3 percent and the layoffs and ...

The early March gain in sentiment was entirely due to households with incomes in the bottom two-thirds of the distribution, whose sentiment rose to 97.4 from 90.0 in February. Sentiment fell among households with incomes in the top third to 98.5 in early March from 101.7 in February. The difference that accounted for the divergence was ...

Industrial production edged up 0.1 percent in February after decreasing 0.4 percent in January. Manufacturing production fell 0.4 percent in February for its second consecutive monthly decline. The index for utilities rose 3.7 percent, while the index for mining moved up 0.3 percent. At 109.7 percent of its 2012 average, total ...

Business activity grew only slightly in New York State, according to firms responding to the March 2019 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell five points to 3.7. New orders increased only marginally, while shipments grew modestly. Delivery times and inventories held steady. Labor market ...

New Home Sales
Sales of new single‐family houses in January 2019 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 607,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 6.9 percent (±16.3 percent)* below the revised December rate of 652,000 and is 4.1 percent ...

In the week ending March 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 229,000, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 223,000. The 4-week moving average was 223,750, a decrease of 2,500 from the previous week's unrevised average ...

Prices for U.S. imports advanced 0.6 percent in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, after ticking up 0.1 percent in January and falling 1.4 percent in December. The February increase was led by higher fuel prices. U.S. export prices rose 0.6 percent in February following decreases of 0.5 percent and 0.7 percent ...

Total Construction
Construction spending during January 2019 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,279.6 billion, 1.3 percent (±0.8 percent) above the revised December estimate of $1,263.1 billion. The January figure is 0.3 percent (±1.2 percent)* above the January 2018 estimate of ...

The Producer Price Index for final demand edged up 0.1 percent in February, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices fell 0.1 percent in both January and December. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index moved up 1.9 percent for the 12 months ended in ...

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in January increased $0.9 billion or 0.4 percent to $255.3 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up three consecutive months, followed a 1.3 percent December increase. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.1 percent. Excluding defense, new orders ...

Mortgage applications increased 2.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 8, 2019.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 2.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 3 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 0.2 ...

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in February on a seasonally adjusted basis after being unchanged in January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.5 percent before ...

Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.3 percent from January to February, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from a 0.4-percent increase in average hourly earnings combined with a 0.2-percent increase in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban ...

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index improved modestly in February, increasing 0.5 points to 101.7. Views about future business conditions and the current period as a good time to expand improved as did plans to make capital outlays. Earnings trends weakened, as a million laid off workers and others affected by the shutdown cut back on ...

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for December, adjusted for seasonal and trading day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,445.0 billion, down 1.0 percent (±0.2 percent) from November 2018, but was up 2.1 percent (±0.3 percent) from ...

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased in February, following a decline in January. The index now stands at 111.15, up from 109.34 (a downward revision) in January. The increase marks a 4.3 percent gain in the ETI over the past 12 months.

“The Employment Trends Index bounced back in February. Last month’s reading had been negatively influenced by the partial government shutdown. In recent months, the index is no longer on an upward trend, suggesting that job growth will slow down in 2019,” said Gad Levanon, ...

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for January 2019, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $504.4 billion, an increase of 0.2 percent (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, and 2.3 percent (±0.7 percent) above January 2018. Total sales for the November ...

Total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in February (+20,000), and the unemployment rate declined to 3.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment in professional and business services, health care, and wholesale trade continued to trend up, while construction employment ...

Building Permits
Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,345,000. This is 1.4 percent (±0.8 percent) above the revised December rate of 1,326,000, but is 1.5 percent (±1.0 percent) below the January 2018 rate of 1,366,000. Single‐family authorizations in January were ...

In January, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 3 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 6 percent.

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In the week ending March 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 223,000, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 225,000 to 226,000. The 4-week moving average was 226,250, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's revised average. The ...