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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 201905



University of Michigan Consumer Confidence moved higher in May to 100.0
Posted: May 31, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Although consumer sentiment remained at very favorable levels, confidence significantly eroded in the last two weeks of May. The late-month decline was due to unfavorable references to tariffs, spontaneously mentioned by 35% of all consumers in the last two weeks of May, up from 16% in the first half of May and 15% in April and equal to the ...


Chicago Purchasing Managers Index increased by 1.6 points to 54.2 in May
Posted: May 31, 2019 at 09:45 AM (Friday)

The MNI Chicago Business Barometer increased by 1.6 points to 54.2 in May from 52.6 in April.

Despite the pick-up in sentiment, the survey points to softness in business activity, as indicated by the three-month average slipping to a two-year low. Furthermore, it is evident that business confidence in Q2 is going to be significantly weaker than Q1, which already was ...


Personal Income increased 0.5%, Spending increased 0.3%
Posted: May 31, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Personal income increased $92.8 billion (0.5 percent) in April according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $69.3 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $40.8 billion ...


Pending Home Sales Index Decreased 1.5% in April
Posted: May 30, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Pending home sales declined in April, a modest change from the growth seen a month before, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Only one of the four major regions – the Midwest – experienced growth, while the remaining three regions reported a drop in their respective ...


1Q2019 GDP preliminary estimate increased 3.1%
Posted: May 30, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent in the first quarter of 2019 (table 1), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 2.2 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP in the first quarter was 3.2 percent. Today's estimate reflects downward revisions to ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 3,000 to 215,000
Posted: May 30, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending May 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 215,000, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 211,000 to 212,000. The 4-week moving average was 216,750, a decrease of 3,750 from the previous week's revised average. The ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity Index inched up from 3 to 5 in May
Posted: May 29, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity was moderate in May, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite index inched up from 3 in April to 5 in May, as shipments and new orders had fairly flat reading and the third component, employment, remained positive. Firms reported growth in spending ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: May 29, 2019 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 3.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 24, 2019.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 3.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 4 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 6 ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity Continues but Pace Slows in May
Posted: May 28, 2019 at 10:30 AM (Tuesday)

Texas factory activity continued to expand in May, albeit at a slower pace, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell six points to 6.3, indicating output growth decelerated ...


Consumer Confidence improved in May to 134.1
Posted: May 28, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® improved in May, following an increase in April. The Index now stands at 134.1 (1985=100), up from 129.2 in April. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions – increased from 169.0 to 175.2. The Expectations Index – based on ...


S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices increased 0.6% in March
Posted: May 28, 2019 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for March 2019 shows that the rate of home price increases across the U.S. has continued to slow.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 3.7% annual gain in March, down from 3.9% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 2.3%, down from 2.5% in ...


April New Orders for Durable Goods decreased 2.1%, Ex-Trans unch%
Posted: May 24, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in April decreased $5.4 billion or 2.1 percent to $248.4 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down two of the last three months, followed a 1.7 percent March increase. Excluding transportation, new orders were virtually unchanged. Excluding defense, new ...


New Home Sales in April at annual rate of 673,000
Posted: May 23, 2019 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

New Home Sales
Sales of new single‐family houses in April 2019 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 673,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 6.9 percent (±14.0 percent)* below the revised March rate of 723,000, but is 7.0 percent ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity grew at a modest pace in May
Posted: May 23, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity continued to grow at a modest pace in May, and expectations for future activity remained mostly solid (Chart 1). Price indexes showed little change, with most indexes lower than a year ago and some slight upward movement in future raw ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 1,000 to 211,000
Posted: May 23, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending May 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 211,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 212,000. The 4-week moving average was 220,250, a decrease of 4,750 from the previous week's unrevised average ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: May 22, 2019 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 2.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 17, 2019.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 2.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 2 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 8 ...


Existing-Home Sales dipped 0.4% in April
Posted: May 21, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Existing-home sales saw a minor decline in April, continuing March’s drop in sales, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Two of the four major U.S. regions saw a slight dip in sales, while the West saw growth and the Midwest essentially bore no changes ...


Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Survey Suggest Activity Continued Growth in May
Posted: May 21, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Responses to the May Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey lightly moderated but continued to suggest expansion in nonmanufacturing activity in the region. The indexes for general activity at the firm level, new orders, and sales/revenues all remained positive but fell from last month’s readings. The index for full-time employment edged ...


Chicago Fed National Activity points to slower economic growth in April
Posted: May 20, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to –0.45 in April from +0.05 in March. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from March, and two of the four categories made negative contributions to the index in April. The index’s three-month ...


U.S. Leading Economic Index increased 0.2% in April
Posted: May 17, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI)for theU.S. increased 0.2 percent in April to 112.1 (2016 = 100), following a 0.3 percent increase in March, and a 0.2 percent increase in February.

“The US LEI rose in April, the third consecutive increase, with a majority of the leading indicators making positive contributions,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “Stock prices, financial conditions, and consumers’ outlook on ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Preliminary May Results surged to 102.4
Posted: May 17, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The Index of Consumer Sentiment surged in early May to its highest level in fifteen years. All of the May gain was in the Expectations Index, which also rose to its highest level since 2004, while the Current Conditions Index was virtually unchanged and well below the cyclical peak set in March 2018. Consumers viewed prospects for the ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 16,000 to 212,000
Posted: May 16, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending May 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 212,000, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 228,000. The 4-week moving average was 225,000, an increase of 4,750 from the previous week's unrevised average ...


Philadelphia Fed Outlook Reported Activity continued to grow in May
Posted: May 16, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Results from the May Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest continued growth for the region’s manufacturing sector. The survey’s indexes for general activity, shipments, and employment increased from their April readings. The new orders index remained positive but decreased modestly. The survey’s future activity index, after falling ...


April Housing Starts increased 5.7%, Permits up 0.6%
Posted: May 16, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Building Permits
Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,296,000. This is 0.6 percent (±2.6 percent)* above the revised March rate of 1,288,000, but is 5.0 percent (±1.4 percent) below the April 2018 rate of 1,364,000. Single‐family authorizations in April were at a ...


Treasury International Capital Data for March 2019
Posted: May 15, 2019 at 04:00 PM (Wednesday)

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for March 2019. The sum total in March of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a net TIC outflow of $8.1 billion. Of this, net foreign private inflows were $13.6 billion, and net ...


Business Inventories up 1.6% in March
Posted: May 15, 2019 at 11:30 AM (Wednesday)

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for March, adjusted for seasonal and trading day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,470.1 billion, up 1.6 percent (±0.2 percent) from February 2019 and was up 3.7 percent (±0.3 percent) from ...


NAHB Builder Confidence rose 3 points to 66 in May
Posted: May 15, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes rose three points to 66 in May, according to the latest NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. Builder sentiment is at its highest level since October 2018.

“Builders are busy catching up after a wet winter, and many characterize sales as solid, driven by improved demand and ongoing low overall supply,” said NAHB Chairman Greg Ugalde. “However, affordability challenges persist and remain a big impediment to stronger sales.” ...


Industrial Production down 0.5%
Capacity Utilization decreased to 77.9%

Posted: May 15, 2019 at 09:15 AM (Wednesday)

Industrial production fell 0.5 percent in April, and the rates of change for previous months were revised down on net. Output is now reported to have declined 1.9 percent at an annual rate in the first quarter. Manufacturing production moved down 0.5 percent in April after being unchanged in March. The index for mining advanced 1.6 percent ...


U.S. Retail Sales for April Decrease 0.2%, Ex-Auto up 0.1%
Posted: May 15, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for April 2019, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $513.4 billion, a decrease of 0.2 percent (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, but 3.1 percent (±0.7 percent) above April 2018. Total sales for the February ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions picked up significantly May
Posted: May 15, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Business activity picked up significantly in New York State, according to firms responding to the May 2019 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index climbed eight points to 17.8, its highest level in six months. New orders and shipments also grew at a faster pace than in recent months. Delivery times ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: May 15, 2019 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 0.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 10, 2019.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 0.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 1 ...


U.S. Import Price Index advanced 0.2% in April
Posted: May 14, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

U.S. import prices advanced 0.2 percent in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, after increasing 0.6 percent in March. The April advance was driven by higher fuel prices, which more than offset decreasing prices for nonfuel imports. Prices for U.S. exports rose 0.2 percent in April after a 0.6-percent rise in ...


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased 1.7 points to 103.5 in April
Posted: May 14, 2019 at 07:00 AM (Tuesday)

Optimism among small business owners continued its steady climb in April, with the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increasing 1.7 points to 103.5. Sales improved in April, the inventory soft spot seen in last month’s report rebounded, and profit trends posted a very solid advance. Job creation plans gained, hiring remained strong, ...


Forecasters See Lower Near-Term Growth
Posted: May 10, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The outlook for growth in the U.S. economy over the next four quarters is slightly weaker than that in the last survey, according to 40 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters predict real GDP will grow at an annual rate of 1.9 percent this quarter and 2.1 percent next quarter, down from the ...


Consumer Price Index increased 0.3% in April, Ex Fd & Engy rose 0.1%
Posted: May 10, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in April on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.4 percent in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.0 percent before ...


Real Average Hourly Earnings decreased 0.1% in April
Posted: May 10, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.1 percent from March to April, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from a 0.2-percent increase in average hourly earnings combined with a 0.3-percent increase in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban ...


Wholesale Inventories down 0.1% in March
Posted: May 9, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

March 2019 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading day differences but not for price changes, were $507.4 billion, up 2.3 percent (±0.5 percent) from the revised February level and were up 3.9 percent (±0.7 percent) from the March 2018 level. The ...


Producer Price Index rose 0.2% in April, ex Fd & Engy up 0.4%
Posted: May 9, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.2 percent in April, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices advanced 0.6 percent in March and 0.1 percent in February. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index increased 2.2 percent for the 12 months ended ...


Goods and Services Deficit Increased in March 2019
Posted: May 9, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The nation's international trade deficit in goods and services increased to $50.0 billion in March from $49.3 billion in February (revised), as imports increased more than exports. The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $50.0 billion in March, up $0.7 billion ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 2,000 to 228,000
Posted: May 9, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending May 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 228,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 230,000. The 4-week moving average was 220,250, an increase of 7,750 from the previous week's unrevised average ...


Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine Index decreased in April to 103.7
Posted: May 8, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Index declined in April. The Index now stands at 103.7 (July 2018=100), down from 104.8 in March. The Index declined 1.0 percent from the prior month, but is up 4.9 percent from a year ago.

In the Midwest, Illinois declined 0.9 percent, and Ohio fell 1.9 percent. In the Northeast, both New York and Pennsylvania declined 0.7 percent. In the South, Texas declined 0.7 percent and Florida fell 0.4 percent. In the West, California declined 1.4 percent and ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: May 8, 2019 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 2.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 3, 2019.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 2.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 3 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 1 ...


Consumer Credit Increased at an annual rate of 3.00% in March
Posted: May 7, 2019 at 03:00 PM (Tuesday)

Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4-1/4 percent during the first quarter. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 1-1/2 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased 5-1/4 percent. In March, consumer credit increased at an annual rate of ...


Job Openings rose to 7.5 million in March
Posted: May 7, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The number of job openings rose to 7.5 million on the last business day of March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.4 million, respectively. Within separations, the quits rate was unchanged at 2.3 percent and the layoffs and discharges rate was ...


Employment Trends Index increased marginally in April to 110.79
Posted: May 6, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased marginally in April, following a decline in March. The index now stands at 110.79, up from 110.73 (a downward revision) in March. The increase marks a 2.3 percent gain in the ETI over the past 12 months.

“The Employment Trends Index increased slightly in April, but has been moving mostly sideways in recent months,” said Gad Levanon, Chief Economist, North America, at The Conference Board. “In the past month, most economic indicators, including Friday’s job report, came out ...


ISM Non-Manufacturing Index decreased to 55.5% in April
Posted: May 3, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in April for the 111th consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “The NMI® registered 55.5 percent, which is 0.6 percentage point lower than the March reading of 56.1 ...


April Employment increased by 263,000
Unemployment Rate declined to 3.6%

Posted: May 3, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 263,000 in April, and the unemployment rate declined to 3.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in professional and business services, construction, health care, and ...


New orders for manufactured goods increased 1.9% in March
Posted: May 2, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

New orders for manufactured goods in March, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, increased $9.3 billion or 1.9 percent to $508.2 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 0.3 percent February decrease. Shipments, up two consecutive months, increased $3.7 billion or 0.7 percent to $509.7 billion. This followed a ...


1Q2019 Productivity Growth Increased 3.6%
Posted: May 2, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 3.6 percent in the first quarter of 2019, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output increased 4.1 percent and hours worked increased 0.5 percent. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates.) From the first quarter of 2018 to the ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims unchanged at 230,000
Posted: May 2, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending April 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 230,000, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised level of 230,000. The 4-week moving average was 212,500, an increase of 6,500 from the previous week's unrevised average ...



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