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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 202002



University of Michigan Consumer Confidence increased in February to 101.0
Posted: February 28, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer sentiment rose to 101.0 in February, nearly matching the expansion peak of 101.4 set in March 2018, according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

The coronavirus was mentioned by 8% of all consumers in February when describing the reasons for their economic expectations. However, on Monday and Tuesday of this week—the last days of the February survey—20% mentioned the coronavirus due to the steep drop in equity ...


Chicago Purchasing Managers Index edged up 6.1 points to 49.0 in February
Posted: February 28, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The Chicago Business BarometerTM, produced with MNI, edged up 6.1 points in February to 49.0, the highest level since August 2019. The index moved closer to the 50-no-change-threshold, shifting the three-month average up to 46.7.

Among the main five indicators, Production and Supplier Deliveries showed the greatest gains, while Employment was the only one to decline. ...


Personal Income increased 0.6%, Spending increased 0.2%
Posted: February 28, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Personal income increased $116.5 billion (0.6 percent) in January according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $101.4 billion (0.6 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $29.6 billion (0.2 percent). Real DPI increased 0.5 percent in January and Real ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity increased modestly in February
Posted: February 27, 2020 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity increased modestly in February, reaching positive territory for the first time in eight months. Expectations for future activity remained at solid levels, and the month-over-month price indexes increased at a moderate pace. District firms continued to expect higher prices in the next ...


Pending Home Sales Index rebounded 5.2% in January
Posted: February 27, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Pending home sales rebounded in January, ticking up following a decline in December, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Only the West region reported a minor drop in month-over-month contract activity, while the other three major regions each saw pending home sales grow. Year-over-year pending home sales activity was up in ...


4Q2019 GDP preliminary estimate increased 2.1%
Posted: February 27, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2019 (table 1), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP also increased 2.1 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were ...


January New Orders for Durable Goods Decreased 0.2%, Ex-Trans up 0.9%
Posted: February 27, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in January decreased $0.4 billion or 0.2 percent to $246.2 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down two of the last three months, followed a 2.9 percent December increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.9 percent. Excluding defense, new ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 8,000 to 219,000
Posted: February 27, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending February 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 219,000, an increase of 8,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 210,000 to 211,000. The 4-week moving average was 209,750, an increase of 500 from the previous week's revised average. ...


New Home Sales in January 2020 at annual rate of 764,000
Posted: February 26, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

New Home Sales
Sales of new single‐family houses in January 2020 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 764,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 7.9 percent (±17.8 percent)* above the revised December rate of 708,000 and is 18.6 ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: February 26, 2020 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 1.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 21, 2020. This week's results include an adjustment for the Washington Birthday (Presidents' Day) ...


Consumer Confidence Improved Slightly in February 2020 to 130.7
Posted: February 25, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® improved slightly in February, following an increase in January. The Index now stands at 130.7 (1985=100), up from 130.4 in January. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions – decreased from 173.9 to 165.1. However, the ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity Index fell from 20 to −2 in February
Posted: February 25, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity softened in February, according to the most recent survey from the Richmond Fed. The composite index fell from 20 in January to −2 in February. All three components of the composite index — shipments, new orders, and employment — moved lower from January. Firms also reported a decrease in backlog of ...


S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Increased 0.1% in December 2019
Posted: February 25, 2020 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for December 2019 show that home prices continue to increase at a modest rate across the U.S.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 3.8% annual gain in December, up from 3.5% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 2.4%, up from 2.0% in the ...


Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Survey Suggest Activity continued to expand in February
Posted: February 25, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Responses to the February Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest continued expansion in nonmanufacturing activity in the region. The indexes for general activity at the firm level, new orders, and sales/revenues all increased for the second consecutive month. Additionally, the index for full-time employment rose. The firms continued ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity Accelerated further in February
Posted: February 24, 2020 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Growth in Texas factory activity accelerated further in February, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose six points to 16.4, suggesting stronger output growth than ...


Chicago Fed National Activity Index points to an uptick in economic growth in January
Posted: February 24, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to –0.25 in January from –0.51 in December. All four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from December, but only one of the four categories made a positive contribution to the index in January. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved up to ...


Existing-Home Sales decreased 1.3% in January
Posted: February 21, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Existing-home sales declined in January, continuing a fluctuating pattern of monthly increases and declines, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Significant declines in the West region dragged down nationwide numbers, with the other three major U.S. regions reporting marginal – or no – changes ...


U.S. Leading Economic Index increased 0.8% in January
Posted: February 20, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI)for the U.S. increased 0.8 percent in January to 112.1 (2016 = 100), following a 0.3 percent decline in December and a 0.1 percent increase in November.

“The strong pickup in the January US LEI was driven by a sharp drop in initial unemployment insurance claims, increasing housing permits, consumers’ outlook on the economy and financial indicators,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 4,000 to 210,000
Posted: February 20, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending February 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 210,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 205,000 to 206,000. The 4-week moving average was 209,000, a decrease of 3,250 from the previous week's revised average. ...


Philadelphia Fed Outlook Reported Activity Rose in February
Posted: February 20, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Manufacturing firms reported an improvement in regional manufacturing activity, according to results from the February Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s current indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments increased this month, suggesting more widespread growth. The firms reported expansion in employment, ...


January Housing Starts decreased 3.6%, Permits up 9.2%
Posted: February 19, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Building Permits
Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,551,000. This is 9.2 percent (±2.1 percent) above the revised December rate of 1,420,000 and is 17.9 percent (±1.3 percent) above the January 2019 rate of 1,316,000. Single‐family authorizations in January were ...


Producer Price Index advanced 0.5% in January, ex Fd & Engy up 0.4%
Posted: February 19, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The Producer Price Index for final demand advanced 0.5 percent in January, seasonally adjusted,
the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices rose 0.2 percent in
December and declined 0.1 percent in November. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final
demand index increased 2.1 percent for the 12 months ended ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: February 19, 2020 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 6.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 14, 2020.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 6.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 5 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 8 ...


Treasury International Capital Data for December 2019
Posted: February 18, 2020 at 04:00 PM (Tuesday)

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for December 2019. The sum total in December of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a net TIC inflow of $78.2 billion. Of this, net foreign private inflows were $134.2 billion, and ...


NAHB Builder Confidence edged one point lower to 74 in February
Posted: February 18, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes edged one point lower to 74 in February, according to the latest National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). The last three monthly readings mark the highest sentiment levels since ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions grew at a faster pace in February
Posted: February 18, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Business activity picked up in New York State, according to firms responding to the February 2020 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index moved up eight points to 12.9. The new orders index shot up 16 points to 22.1, and the shipments index climbed to 18.9. Delivery times lengthened, and ...


Business Inventories up 0.1% in December
Posted: February 14, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for December, adjusted for seasonal and trading day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,461.0 billion, down 0.1 percent (±0.2 percent)* from November 2019, but was up 1.7 percent (±0.4 percent) from ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Preliminary February Results rose to 100.9
Posted: February 14, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer sentiment rose to 100.9 in early February to nearly match the expansion peak of 101.4, set two years ago in March 2018. The Expectations Index, the main gauge of future economic conditions, rose to 92.6, also its second highest level in this long expansion. Both measures were still significantly below the levels recorded twenty years ...


Phila Fed Forecasters See Stronger Output Growth and Higher Job Gains in 2020
Posted: February 14, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The U.S. economy in 2020 looks stronger now than it did three months ago, according to 37 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The panel predicts real GDP will grow at an annual rate of 1.7 percent this quarter, down from 1.9 percent in the last survey. However, for each of the next three quarters, the panel ...


Industrial Production declined 0.3%
Capacity Utilization fell to 76.8%

Posted: February 14, 2020 at 09:15 AM (Friday)

Industrial production declined 0.3 percent in January, as unseasonably warm weather held down the output of utilities and as a major manufacturer significantly slowed production of civilian aircraft. The index for manufacturing edged down 0.1 percent in January; excluding the production of aircraft and parts, factory output advanced 0.3 ...


U.S. Import Price Index was unchanged in January
Posted: February 14, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

U.S. import prices were unchanged in January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, following 0.2-percent advances the 2 previous months. In January, falling fuel prices offset increasing prices for nonfuel imports. Prices for U.S. exports advanced 0.7 percent in January, after declining 0.2 percent the ...


U.S. Retail Sales for January Increased 0.3%, Ex-Auto up 0.3%
Posted: February 14, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for January 2020, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $529.8 billion, an increase of 0.3 percent (±0.4 percent)* from the previous month, and 4.4 percent (±0.7 percent) above January 2019. Total sales for the November ...


Real Average Hourly Earnings increased 0.1% in January
Posted: February 13, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.1 percent from December to January, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from an increase of 0.2 percent in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.1 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban ...


Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% in January, Ex Fd & Engy rose 0.2%
Posted: February 13, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.1 percent in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, after rising 0.2 percent in December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.5 percent before ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 2,000 to 205,000
Posted: February 13, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending February 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 205,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 202,000 to 203,000. The 4-week moving average was 212,000, unchanged from the previous week's revised average. The previous ...


Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine Index increased in January to 102.7
Posted: February 12, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

The Conference Board®-Burning Glass® Help Wanted OnLine™ (HWOL) Index increased slightly in January and now stands at 102.7 (July 2018=100), up from 102.4 in December. The Index increased 0.6 percent from November to December, but is down 2.2 percent from a year ago.

The HWOL Index has been on a slight downward trend in the past year but remains at a high level. Together with other leading labor market indicators, the HWOL Index suggests that employment growth will remain solid in the coming months. ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: February 12, 2020 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 1.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 7, 2020.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 1.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 3 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 5 ...


Job Openings fell to 6.4 million in December
Posted: February 11, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The number of job openings fell to 6.4 million (-364,000) on the last business day of December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and separations were little changed at 5.9 million and 5.7 million, respectively. Within separations, the quits rate and layoffs and discharges rate were unchanged at 2.3 ...


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 1.6 points to 104.3 in January
Posted: February 11, 2020 at 07:00 AM (Tuesday)

The small business Optimism Index started the New Year in the top 10% of all readings in the 46-year history of the survey, rising 1.6 points to 104.3 in the month of January. Six of the 10 Index components improved, two declined, and two were unchanged, with the Uncertainty Index edging up slightly. Owners expecting better business ...


Employment Trends Index increased in January to 110.24
Posted: February 10, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased in January, following a decline in December. The index now stands at 110.24, up from 108.84 (a downward revision) in December. The index is up 0.7 percent from a year ago.

“The Employment Trends Index increased in January, signaling solid job growth in early 2020,” said Gad Levanon, Head of The Conference Board Labor Markets Institute. “The improvement in the ETI, along with Friday’s job report and other indicators, suggest that employment ...


Consumer Credit Increased at an annual rate of 6.25% in December
Posted: February 7, 2020 at 03:00 PM (Friday)

In 2019, consumer credit increased 4-3/4 percent, with revolving and nonrevolving credit increasing 4-1/4 percent and 4-3/4 percent, respectively. Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5 percent in the fourth quarter and at a rate of 6-1/4 percent ...


Wholesale Inventories down 0.2% in December 2019
Posted: February 7, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

December 2019 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading day differences but not for price changes, were $494.4 billion, down 0.7 percent (±0.4 percent) from the revised November level, but were up 0.5 percent (±1.1 percent)* from the revised December ...


January Employment increased by 225,000
Unemployment Rate up to 3.6%

Posted: February 7, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 225,000 in January, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 3.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in construction, in health care, and in transportation and warehousing.

This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry. For more ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 15,000 to 202,000
Posted: February 6, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending February 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 202,000, a decrease of 15,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 216,000 to 217,000. The 4-week moving average was 211,750, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's revised average. ...


4Q2019 Productivity Growth Increased 1.4%
Posted: February 6, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2019, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output increased 2.5 percent and hours worked increased 1.1 percent. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates.) From the fourth quarter of 2018 to ...


Challenger Layoffs announced 67,735 cuts in January
Posted: February 6, 2020 at 07:30 AM (Thursday)

Job cuts announced by U.S.-based employers jumped 106%, from December’s total of 32,843 to 67,735, the highest monthly total since February 2019, according to a report released Thursday from global outplacement and business and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & ...


ISM Non-Manufacturing Index rose to 55.5% in January
Posted: February 5, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in January for the 120th consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “The NMI® registered 55.5 percent, which is 0.6 percentage point higher than the seasonally adjusted ...


Goods and Services Deficit Increased in December 2019
Posted: February 5, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The nation's international trade deficit in goods and services increased to $48.9 billion in December from $43.7 billion in November (revised), as imports increased more than exports. The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $48.9 billion in December, up $5.2 ...


ADP National Employment Report increased by 291,000 jobs in January
Posted: February 5, 2020 at 08:15 AM (Wednesday)

Private sector employment increased by 291,000 jobs from December to January according to the January ADP National Employment Report®.

“The labor market experienced expanded payrolls in January,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and cohead of the ADP Research Institute. “Goods producers added jobs, particularly in construction and manufacturing, while service providers experienced a large gain, led by ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: February 5, 2020 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 5.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 31, 2020. The previous week's results included an adjustment for the Martin Luther King ...



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