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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 202003



Consumer Confidence declined sharply in March 2020 to 120.0
Posted: March 31, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined sharply in March, following an increase in February. The Index now stands at 120.0 (1985=100), down from 132.6 in February. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions – decreased from 169.3 to 167.7. The Expectations Index ...


Chicago Purchasing Managers Index Drops 1.1 points to 49.0 in March
Posted: March 31, 2020 at 09:45 AM (Tuesday)

The Chicago Business BarometerTM, produced with MNI, declined by 1.1 points in March, marking a ninth consecutive sub-50 reading. However, business sentiment rose marginally by 0.2 points to 46.6 in Q1.

Among the main five indicators, Production and New Orders saw the only monthly declines, while Supplier Deliveries recorded the largest gain. ...


S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices unch% in January 2020
Posted: March 31, 2020 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for January 2020 show that home prices continue to increase at a modest rate across the U.S.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 3.9% annual gain in January, up from 3.7% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 2.6%, up from 2.3% in the ...


Paychex-IHS Small Business Jobs Index slowed to 98.21 in March
Posted: March 31, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Paychex | IHS Markit Small Business Hiring and Wage Growth Slow as Impacts of the Coronavirus Pandemic Begin to Take Effect. Employment growth had remained relatively stable for ten months prior to impact of COVID-19 accelerating in March.

The latest Paychex | IHS Markit Small Business Employment Watch shows a slight decrease in both small business employment and wage growth in March. The report is based on data through March 19, a time when many businesses began to modify operations as a result of the ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity Declined Sharply in March
Posted: March 30, 2020 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity declined sharply in March, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, plummeted from 16.4 to -35.3, suggesting a notable contraction in output since ...


Pending Home Sales Index grew 2.4% in February
Posted: March 30, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

Pending home sales rose in February, climbing for the second consecutive month, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Each of the four major regions saw an increase in month-over-month contract activity, as well as growth in year-over-year pending home sales transactions compared to one ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence dropped in March to 89.1
Posted: March 27, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer sentiment dropped 11.9 Index-points in March, the fourth largest one-month decline in nearly a half century. The steepest monthly decline was barely larger at -12.7 Index-points in response to the deepening recession in October 2008, and there were two declines of 12.2 points in response to the 1980 recession and Hurricane Katrina ...


Personal Income increased 0.6%, Spending increased 0.2% in February 2020
Posted: March 27, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Personal income increased $106.8 billion (0.6 percent) in February according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (table 3 and table 5). Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $88.7 billion (0.5 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $27.7 billion (0.2 percent). Real DPI inincreased 0.4 ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity declined sharply in March
Posted: March 26, 2020 at 10:30 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity declined sharply compared with a month ago, and expectations for future activity fell to levels last seen in early 2009. Month-over-month price indexes decreased moderately, and District firms expected lower prices in the next 6 months.

Factory Activity Declined Sharply in March
The month-over-month composite index was -17 in March, the lowest composite reading since April 2009, and down considerably from 5 in February and -1 in January. The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 3,001,000 to 3,283,000
Posted: March 26, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending March 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 3,283,000, an increase of 3,001,000 from the previous week's revised level. This marks the highest level of seasonally adjusted initial claims in the history of the seasonally adjusted series. The previous high was 695,000 in October of 1982. The ...


4Q2019 GDP final estimate increased 2.1%
Posted: March 26, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2019 (table 1), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP also increased 2.1 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available ...


February New Orders for Durable Goods Increased 1.2%, Ex-Trans down 0.6%
Posted: March 25, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in February increased $2.9 billion or 1.2 percent to $249.4 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up four of the last five months, followed a 0.1 percent January increase. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.6 percent. Excluding defense, new ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: March 25, 2020 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 29.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 20, 2020.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 29.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 29 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 34 ...


New Home Sales in February 2020 at annual rate of 765,000
Posted: March 24, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

New Home Sales
Sales of new single-family houses in February 2020 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 765,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 4.4 percent (±14.8 percent)* below the revised January rate of 800,000, but is 14.3 ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity Index rose from −2 to 2 in March
Posted: March 24, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity remained fairly flat in March, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite index remained close to 0, rising from −2 in February to 2 in March. The indexes for shipments and new orders were above their February values, but the third component — employment ...


Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Survey Suggest Activity fell sharply in March
Posted: March 24, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Nonmanufacturing firms reported a significant weakening in regional nonmanufacturing activity this month, according to results from the Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s indexes for general activity at the firm level, sales/revenues, new orders, and full-time employment all fell sharply and into negative territory this ...


Chicago Fed National Activity Index Suggests Economic Growth Picked Up in February
Posted: March 23, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

The data through February were unlikely to have been affected much by the COVID-19 outbreak. Economic data for March will be incorporated in the next CFNAI released on April 20, 2020.

Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.16 in February from –0.33 in January. Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from January, and three of the four ...


Federal Reserve announces extensive new measures to support the economy
Posted: March 23, 2020 at 08:00 AM (Monday)

The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support households, businesses, and the U.S. economy overall in this challenging time. The coronavirus pandemic is causing tremendous hardship across the United States and around the world. Our nation's first priority is to care for those afflicted and to limit the further ...


Existing-Home Sales increased 6.5% in February
Posted: March 20, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Existing-home sales climbed substantially in February after a slight decline in January, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Of the four major regions, only the Northeast reported a drop in sales, while other areas saw increases, including sizable sales gains in ...


U.S. Leading Economic Index edged up 0.1% in February
Posted: March 19, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI)for the U.S. edged up 0.1 percent in February to 112.1 (2016 = 100), following a 0.7 percent increase in January, and a 0.3 percent decline in December.

“The U.S. LEI rose slightly in February, but it doesn’t reflect the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic which began to hit the U.S. economy in full by early March. The slight gain in February came only from half of the LEI components. In particular, the recovery in ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 71,000 to 281,000
Posted: March 19, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending March 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 281,000, an increase of 70,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 211,000. This is the highest level for initial claims since September 2, 2017 when it was 299,000. The 4-week moving average was 232,250, an increase of 16,500 from the ...


Philadelphia Fed Outlook Reported Activity declined markedly in February
Posted: March 19, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Manufacturing firms reported a significant weakening in regional manufacturing activity this month, according to results from the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s current indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments fell precipitously this month, coinciding with developments related to the coronavirus. The ...


4Q2019 Current Account Deficit Decreased
Posted: March 19, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The U.S. current account deficit, which reflects the combined balances on trade in goods and services and income flows between U.S. residents and residents of other countries, narrowed by $15.6 billion, or 12.4 percent, to $109.8 billion in the fourth quarter of 2019, according to statistics from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). ...


February Housing Starts decreased 1.5%, Permits down 5.5%
Posted: March 18, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Building Permits
Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,464,000. This is 5.5 percent (±1.5 percent) below the revised January rate of 1,550,000, but is 13.8 percent (±2.1 percent) above the February 2019 rate of 1,287,000. Single‐family authorizations in February ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: March 18, 2020 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 8.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 13, 2020.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 8.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 8 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 10 ...


NAHB Builder Confidence fell two points to 72 in March
Posted: March 17, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes fell two points to 72 in March, according to the latest National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). Sentiment levels have held in a firm range in the low- to mid-70s for the past ...


Job Openings rose to 7.0 million in January
Posted: March 17, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The number of job openings rose to 7.0 million (+411,000) on the last business day of January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and separations were little changed at 5.8 million and 5.6 million, respectively. Within separations, the quits rate was unchanged at 2.3 percent and the layoffs and ...


Business Inventories down 0.1% in January
Posted: March 17, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for January, adjusted for seasonal and trading day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,471.2 billion, up 0.6 percent (±0.2 percent) from December 2019 and was up 2.1 percent (±0.3 percent) from ...


Industrial Production rose 0.6%
Capacity Utilization increased to 77.0%

Posted: March 17, 2020 at 09:15 AM (Tuesday)

Industrial production rose 0.6 percent in February after falling 0.5 percent in January. Manufacturing output edged up 0.1 percent in February; excluding a large gain for motor vehicles and parts and a large drop for civilian aircraft, factory output was unchanged. The index for mining declined 1.5 percent, but the index for utilities jumped ...


U.S. Retail Sales for February Decreased 0.5%, Ex-Auto down 0.4%
Posted: March 17, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for February 2020, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $528.1 billion, a decrease of 0.5 percent (±0.4 percent) from the previous month, but 4.3 percent (±0.7 percent) above February 2019. Total sales for the December ...


Treasury International Capital Data for January 2020
Posted: March 16, 2020 at 04:00 PM (Monday)

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for January 2020. The sum total in January of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a net TIC inflow of $122.9 billion. Of this, net foreign private inflows were $94.1 billion, and ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions declined in March 2020
Posted: March 16, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Business activity declined in New York State, according to firms responding to the March 2020 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell thirty-four points to -21.5, its lowest level since 2009. The new orders index dropped to -9.3, pointing to a decline in orders, and the shipments index fell to ...


FOMC target funds rate lowered by 1.00% to 0.00% - 0.25%, balance sheet expansion program started
Posted: March 15, 2020 at 05:00 PM (Sunday)

The coronavirus outbreak has harmed communities and disrupted economic activity in many countries, including the United States. Global financial conditions have also been significantly affected. Available economic data show that the U.S. economy came into this challenging period on a strong footing. Information received since the Federal ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Preliminary March Results fell to 95.9
Posted: March 13, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer sentiment fell in early March due to the spreading coronavirus and the steep declines in stock prices. Importantly, the initial response to the pandemic has not generated the type of economic panic among consumers that was present in the runup to the Great Recession. Nonetheless, the data suggest that additional declines in confidence ...


U.S. Import Price Index declined 0.5% in February
Posted: March 13, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

U.S. import prices declined 0.5 percent in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, after ticking up 0.1 percent in January. In February, falling import fuel prices more than offset higher prices for nonfuel imports. Prices for U.S. exports decreased 1.1 percent in February, after advancing 0.6 percent the ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 4,000 to 211,000
Posted: March 12, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending March 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 211,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 1,000 from 216,000 to 215,000. The 4-week moving average was 214,000, an increase of 1,250 from the previous week's revised average. ...


Producer Price Index fell 0.6% in February, ex Fd & Engy down 0.1%
Posted: March 12, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The Producer Price Index for final demand fell 0.6 percent in February, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices advanced 0.5 percent in January and 0.2 percent in December. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index increased 1.3 percent for the 12 months ended in ...


Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine Index unchanged in February at 101.4
Posted: March 11, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

The Conference Board®-Burning Glass® Help Wanted OnLine™ (HWOL) Index was unchanged in February and remains at 101.4 (July 2018=100). The Index declined 1.0 percent (from December to January) and is down 4.9 percent from a year ago.

Despite being on a slightly downward trend over the past year, the HWOL Index is still hovering at high levels. However, the COVID-19 outbreak will likely cause the number of online job ads to decline in the coming months. ...


Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% in February, Ex Fd & Engy rose 0.2%
Posted: March 11, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.1 percent in February on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.3 percent before ...


Real Average Hourly Earnings increased 0.3% in February
Posted: March 11, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.3 percent from January to February, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from an increase of 0.3 percent in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.1 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: March 11, 2020 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 55.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 6, 2020.

In response to the current interest rate environment, MBA now forecasts total mortgage originations to come in around $2.61 trillion this year - a 20.3 percent gain from 2019's volume ($2.17 trillion). Refinance originations are expected to double earlier MBA projections, ...


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 0.2 points to 104.5 in February
Posted: March 10, 2020 at 07:00 AM (Tuesday)

Small business owners expressed slightly higher levels of optimism in February with the NFIB Optimism Index moving up 0.2 points to 104.5, a reading among the top 10 percent in the 46-year history of the survey. Those expecting better business conditions increased and job creation and openings improved as well. Real sales expectations ...


Employment Trends Index declined in February to 108.96
Posted: March 9, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) declined in February, following an increase in January. The index now stands at 108.96, down from 109.85 (a downward revision) in January. The index is down 1.3 percent from a year ago.

“The Employment Trends Index declined in February, following a strong increase in January,” said Gad Levanon, Head of The Conference Board Labor Markets Institute. “The drop in February was the result of a large negative contribution from the ‘Jobs Hard to Get’ component. ...


Consumer Credit Increased at an annual rate of 3.50% in January
Posted: March 6, 2020 at 03:00 PM (Friday)

In January, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3-1/2 percent. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 3-1/4 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 5-3/4 percent.

...


Wholesale Inventories down 0.4% in January 2020
Posted: March 6, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

January 2020 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading day differences but not for price changes, were $504.6 billion, up 1.6 percent (±0.5 percent) from the revised December level and were up 2.2 percent (±0.7 percent) from the revised January 2019 ...


February Employment increased by 273,000
Unemployment Rate down to 3.5%

Posted: March 6, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 273,000 in February, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 3.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in health care and social assistance, food services and drinking places, government, construction, professional and technical services, ...


Goods and Services Deficit Increased in January 2020
Posted: March 6, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The nation's international trade deficit in goods and services decreased to $45.3 billion in January from $48.6 billion in December (revised), as imports decreased more than exports. The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $45.3 billion in January, down $3.3 ...


New orders for manufactured goods decreased 0.2% in January
Posted: March 5, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in January decreased $0.4 billion or 0.2 percent to $246.2 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down two of the last three months, followed a 2.9 percent December increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.9 percent. Excluding defense, new ...


Challenger Layoffs announced 56,660 cuts in February 2020
Posted: March 5, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Job cuts announced by U.S.-based employers fell 16.4% from January’s total of 67,735 to 56,660 in February. Despite widespread concern, COVID-19 has not yet caused companies to cut positions, according to a report released Thursday from global outplacement and business and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & ...


4Q2019 Productivity Growth Increased 1.2%
Posted: March 5, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 1.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2019, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output increased 2.4 percent and hours worked increased 1.2 percent. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates.) From the fourth quarter of 2018 to ...



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