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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 202004



Chicago Purchasing Managers Index fell 12.4 points to 35.4 in April
Posted: April 30, 2020 at 09:45 AM (Thursday)

The Chicago Business BarometerTM, produced with MNI, fell 12.4 points in April to its lowest level since March 2009 as business confidence dipped sharply amid the current spread of COVID-19.

Among the main five indicators, New Orders and Production registered the steepest declines, while Supplier Deliveries surged. ...


Personal Income decreased 2.0%, Spending decreased 7.5% in March 2020
Posted: April 30, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Personal income decreased $382.1 billion (2.0 percent) in March according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 3 and 5). Disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $334.6 billion (2.0 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $1,127.3 billion ...


Employment Cost Index up 0.8% in 1Q2020
Posted: April 30, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.8 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in March 2020, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries increased 0.9 percent and benefit costs increased 0.4 percent from ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 603,000 to 3,839,000
Posted: April 30, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending April 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 3,839,000, a decrease of 603,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 15,000 from 4,427,000 to 4,442,000. The 4-week moving average was 5,033,250, a decrease of 757,000 from the previous week's revised ...


FOMC target funds rate maintained at 0.00% - 0.25%
Posted: April 29, 2020 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.

The coronavirus outbreak is causing tremendous human and economic hardship across the United States and around the world. The virus and the measures taken to protect public health are inducing sharp declines in economic activity and a surge in job losses. Weaker demand and ...


Pending Home Sales Index decreased 20.8% in March
Posted: April 29, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Pending home sales fell in March, seeing expected declines as a result of the coronavirus outbreak, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Each of the four major regions saw drops in month-over-month contract activity and year-over-year pending home ...


1Q2020 GDP advance estimate decreased 4.8%
Posted: April 29, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 4.8 percent in the first quarter of 2020 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2019, real GDP increased 2.1 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see "Source Data for the Advance Estimate" on page 2). The "second" estimate for the first quarter, based on more complete data, will be released ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: April 29, 2020 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 3.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 24, 2020.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 3.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 7 ...


Consumer Confidence deteriorated further in April 2020 to 86.9
Posted: April 28, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® deteriorated further in April, following a sharp decline in March. The Index now stands at 86.9 (1985=100), down from 118.8 in March. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions – also declined considerably, from 166.7 to 76.4. ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity Index plummeted from 2 to −53 in April
Posted: April 28, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity declined sharply in April, according to the most recent survey from the Richmond Fed. The composite index plummeted from 2 in March to −53 in April, its lowest reading and largest one-month drop on record. All three components — shipments, new orders, and employment — fell, and the indexes for shipments ...


S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices increase 0.4% in February 2020
Posted: April 28, 2020 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for February 2020 show that home prices continue to increase at a modest rate across the U.S.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 4.2% annual gain in February, up from 3.9% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 2.9%, up from 2.6% in the ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity Declined Further in April
Posted: April 27, 2020 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity declined further in April, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, pushed further negative from -35.3 to -55.3, suggesting the contraction in output has steepened since ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence dropped in April to 71.9
Posted: April 24, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer sentiment tumbled 17.3 index points in April, the largest one-month decline in nearly a half century, according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

A two-month decline of 29.2 points was also the largest consecutive monthly decline ever recorded. ...


March New Orders for Durable Goods Decreased 14.4%, Ex-Trans down 0.2%
Posted: April 24, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in March decreased $36.0 billion or 14.4 percent to $213.2 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down following three consecutive monthly increases, followed a 1.1 percent February increase. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.2 percent. Excluding ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Decreased Further in April
Posted: April 23, 2020 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity decreased further to the lowest reading in survey history (since 1994), while expectations for future activity improved but remained slightly negative. Month-over-month price indexes declined again in April, but District firms expected prices to rise slightly in the next ...


New Home Sales in March 2020 at annual rate of 627,000
Posted: April 23, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

New Home Sales
Sales of new single‐family houses in March 2020 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 627,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 15.4 percent (±14.8 percent) below the revised February rate of 741,000 and is 9.5 percent ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 810,000 to 4,427,000
Posted: April 23, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending April 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 4,427,000, a decrease of 810,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 8,000 from 5,245,000 to 5,237,000. The 4-week moving average was 5,786,500, an increase of 280,000 from the previous week's ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: April 22, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 0.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 17, 2020.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 0.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 0.1 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 1 ...


Existing-Home Sales decreased 8.5% in March
Posted: April 21, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Existing-home sales fell in March following a February that saw significant nationwide gains, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Each of the four major regions reported a dip in sales, with the West suffering the largest decrease.

Total existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, dropped 8.5% from February to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 5.27 million in March. Despite the decline, overall sales increased year-over-year for ...


Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Survey Suggest Activity fell sharply in April
Posted: April 21, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Nonmanufacturing firms reported continued weakening in regional nonmanufacturing activity this month, according to results from the Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s current indicators for general activity at the firm level, sales/revenues, new orders, and full-time employment once again fell sharply this month to ...


Chicago Fed National Activity Index Suggests Growth Decreased Substantially in March
Posted: April 20, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Led by declines in production- and employment-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to –4.19 in March from +0.06 in February. All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made negative contributions in March, and three of the four categories decreased from February. The index’s ...


U.S. Leading Economic Index declined 6.7% in March
Posted: April 17, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined 6.7 percent in March to 104.2 (2016 = 100), following a 0.2 percent decrease in February, and a 0.4 percent increase in January.

“In March, the US LEI registered the largest decline in its 60-year history,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “The unprecedented and sudden deterioration was broad based, with the largest negative contributions coming ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 1,370,000 to 5,245,000
Posted: April 16, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending April 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 5,245,000, a decrease of 1,370,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 9,000 from 6,606,000 to 6,615,000. The 4-week moving average was 5,508,500, an increase of 1,240,750 from the previous week's ...


March Housing Starts decreased 22.3%, Permits down 6.8%
Posted: April 16, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Building Permits
Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,353,000. This is 6.8 percent (±1.1 percent) below the revised February rate of 1,452,000, but is 5.0 percent (±2.4 percent) above the March 2019 rate of 1,288,000. Single‐family authorizations in March were at ...


Philadelphia Fed Outlook Reported Activity fell sharply in April
Posted: April 16, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Manufacturing firms reported continued weakening in regional manufacturing activity this month, according to results from the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s current indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments once again fell sharply this month to long-term low readings, coinciding with ongoing ...


Treasury International Capital Data for February 2020
Posted: April 15, 2020 at 04:00 PM (Wednesday)

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for February 2020. The sum total in February of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a net TIC outflow of $13.4 billion. Of this, net foreign private outflows were $9.2 billion, and ...


Beige Book: Economic Activity contracted sharply and abruptly due to COVID-19 pandemic
Posted: April 15, 2020 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Economic activity contracted sharply and abruptly across all regions in the United States as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. The hardest-hit industries—because of social distancing measures and mandated closures—were leisure and hospitality, and retail aside from essential goods. Most Districts reported declines in manufacturing, but ...


Business Inventories down 0.4% in February
Posted: April 15, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for February, adjusted for seasonal and trading day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,464.2 billion, down 0.5 percent (±0.2 percent) from January 2020, but was up 1.4 percent (±0.3 percent) from ...


NAHB Builder Confidence plunged 42 points to 30 in April
Posted: April 15, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Reflecting the growing effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes plunged 42 points in April to 30, according to the latest NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. The decline in April was the largest single monthly change in the history of the index and marks ...


Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine Index fell in March to 99.6
Posted: April 15, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

The Conference Board®-Burning Glass® Help Wanted OnLine™ (HWOL) Index fell in March and now stands at 99.6 (July 2018=100), down from 101.2 in February. The Index declined 1.5 percent from the prior month and is down 5.5 percent from a year ago.

The March 2020 data does not capture the large decline due to COVID-19 as the data collection period covered February 14 to March 13. The COVID-19 related decline in online job ads will be reflected in the April HWOL release. ...


Industrial Production fell 5.4%
Capacity Utilization decreased to 72.7%

Posted: April 15, 2020 at 09:15 AM (Wednesday)

Total industrial production fell 5.4 percent in March, as the COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) pandemic led many factories to suspend operations late in the month. Manufacturing output fell 6.3 percent; most major industries posted decreases, with the largest decline registered by motor vehicles and parts. The decreases for total ...


U.S. Retail Sales for March Decreased 8.7%, Ex-Auto down 4.5%
Posted: April 15, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March 2020, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $483.1 billion, a decrease of 8.7 percent (±0.4 percent) from the previous month, and 6.2 percent (±0.7 percent) below March 2019. Total sales for the January 2020 ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions plummeted in April 2020
Posted: April 15, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Business activity plunged in New York State, according to firms responding to the April 2020 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index plummeted fifty-seven points to -78.2, its lowest level in the history of the survey—by a wide margin. New orders and shipments declined at a record pace. Delivery ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: April 15, 2020 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 7.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 10, 2020. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 7.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one ...


U.S. Import Price Index fell 2.3% in March
Posted: April 14, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Prices for U.S. imports fell 2.3 percent in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, following a 0.7-percent decline the previous month. The March drop was driven by lower fuel prices. U.S. export prices decreased 1.6 percent in March, after falling 1.1 percent ...


Consumer Price Index declined 0.4% in March, Ex Fd & Engy fell 0.1%
Posted: April 10, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) declined 0.4 percent in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, the largest monthly decline since January 2015, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.5 percent before ...


Real Average Hourly Earnings increased 0.8% in March
Posted: April 10, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.8 percent from February to March, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from an increase of 0.4 percent in average hourly earnings combined with a decrease of 0.4 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Preliminary March Results fell to 71.0
Posted: April 9, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Consumer sentiment plunged 18.1 Index-points in early April, the largest monthly decline ever recorded. When combined with last month's decline, the two-month drop of 30.0 Index-points was 50% larger than the prior record. Of the two Index components, the Current Conditions Index plunged by 31.3 Index-points, nearly twice the prior record ...


Wholesale Inventories down 0.4% in February 2020
Posted: April 9, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

February 2020 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading day differences but not for price changes, were $500.7 billion, down 0.8 percent (±0.5 percent) from the revised January level, but were up 1.1 percent (±0.7 percent) from the revised February ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 261,000 to 6,606,000
Posted: April 9, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending April 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 6,606,000, a decrease of 261,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 219,000 from 6,648,000 to 6,867,000. The 4-week moving average was 4,265,500, an increase of 1,598,750 from the previous week's ...


Producer Price Index fell 0.2% in March, ex Fd & Engy down 0.2%
Posted: April 9, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The Producer Price Index for final demand fell 0.2 percent in March, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices declined 0.6 percent in February and increased 0.5 percent in January. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index advanced 0.7 percent for the 12 months ended ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: April 8, 2020 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 17.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 3, 2020. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 17.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one ...


Consumer Credit Increased at an annual rate of 6.50% in February
Posted: April 7, 2020 at 03:00 PM (Tuesday)

In February, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6-1/2 percent. Revolving credit increased at a 4-1/2 percent annual rate, while nonrevolving credit increased at a 7 percent annual rate.

...


Job Openings little changed at 6.9 million in February
Posted: April 7, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The number of job openings was little changed at 6.9 million on the last business day of February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and separations were little changed at 5.9 million and 5.6 million, respectively. Within separations, the quits rate was unchanged at 2.3 percent and the layoffs and ...


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 8.1 points to 96.4 in March
Posted: April 7, 2020 at 07:00 AM (Tuesday)

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 8.1 points in March to 96.4, the largest monthly decline in the survey’s history. Nine of the 10 Index components declined, which is evidence that economic disruptions are escalating on Main Street as small businesses struggle to keep their doors open. The small business sector is anticipating ...


Employment Trends Index plummeted in March to 60.39
Posted: April 6, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) plummeted in March, following a decline in February. The index now stands at 60.39, down from 109.27 (an upward revision) in February. The index is down 45.0 percent from a year ago.

“The Employment Trends Index plummeted in March, almost entirely due to the historically large increase in initial claims for unemployment,” said Gad Levanon, Head of The Conference Board Labor Markets Institute. “This period of declining employment is historically severe ...


ISM Non-Manufacturing Index decreased to 52.5% in March
Posted: April 3, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in March for the 122nd consecutive month, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business.®

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “The NMI® registered 52.5 percent, 4.8 percentage points lower than the February reading of 57.3 ...


March Employment fell by 701,000
Unemployment Rate rose to 4.4%

Posted: April 3, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Total nonfarm payroll employment fell by 701,000 in March, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The changes in these measures reflect the effects of the coronavirus (COVID-19) and efforts to contain it. Employment in leisure and hospitality fell by 459,000, mainly in food services ...


New orders for manufactured goods unch% in February
Posted: April 2, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Summary
New orders for manufactured goods in February, down three of the last four months, decreased $0.1 billion or virtually unchanged to $497.4 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 0.5 percent January decrease. Shipments, down two consecutive months, decreased $0.8 billion or 0.2 percent to $500.3 billion. ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 3,341,000 to 6,648,000
Posted: April 2, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending March 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 6,648,000, an increase of 3,341,000 from the previous week's revised level. This marks the highest level of seasonally adjusted initial claims in the history of the seasonally adjusted series. The previous week's level was revised up by 24,000 from ...



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