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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 202005


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence largely unchanged in May to 72.3
Posted: May 29, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Following April’s record one-month decline, consumer confidence inched upward in May by an insignificant amount, according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

The Sentiment Index fell 27.7% below last May’s level, with the falloff in evaluations of current conditions and future prospects posting declines of 25%-30%. The CARES relief checks and higher unemployment payments have helped to stem economic hardship, but those programs ...


Chicago Purchasing Managers Index fell 3.1 points to 32.3 in May
Posted: May 29, 2020 at 09:45 AM (Friday)

The Chicago Business BarometerTM, produced with MNI, fell to 32.3 in May, hitting the lowest level since March 1982, as business confidence cooled further amid the Covid-19 crisis.

Among the main five indicators, Order Backlogs and Supplier Deliveries saw the largest declines, while Employment edged marginally higher. ...


Personal Income increased 10.5%, Spending decreased 13.6% in April 2020
Posted: May 29, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Personal income increased $1.97 trillion (10.5 percent) in April according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 3 and 5). Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $2.13 trillion (12.9 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $1.89 trillion ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity up somewhat in May
Posted: May 28, 2020 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity continued to decline, but not as sharply compared to last month’s record low. Expectations for future activity rose, but remained slightly negative. Month-over-month price indexes remained negative again in May. Moving forward, District firms expected prices for finished goods to decline and prices for ...


Pending Home Sales Index decreased 21.8% in April
Posted: May 28, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Brought on by the coronavirus pandemic, pending home sales decreased in April, making two straight months of declines, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Every major region experienced a drop in month-over-month contract activity and a decline in year-over-year pending home ...


1Q2020 GDP preliminary estimate decreased 5.0%
Posted: May 28, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 5.0 percent in the first quarter of 2020 (table 1), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 2.1 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the decrease in real GDP was 4.8 percent. With the second estimate, a downward revision to private inventory ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 323,000 to 2,123,000
Posted: May 28, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending May 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 2,123,000, a decrease of 323,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 8,000 from 2,438,000 to 2,446,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,608,000, a decrease of 436,000 from the previous week's revised average. ...


April New Orders for Durable Goods Decreased 17.2%, Ex-Trans down 7.4%
Posted: May 28, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in April decreased $35.4 billion or 17.2 percent to $170.0 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down three of the last four months, followed a 16.6 percent March decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 7.4 percent. Excluding defense, new ...


Beige Book: Economic Activity declined in all Districts – falling sharply in most – reflecting COVID-19 pandemic
Posted: May 27, 2020 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Economic activity declined in all Districts – falling sharply in most – reflecting disruptions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. Consumer spending fell further as mandated closures of retail establishments remained largely in place during most of the survey period. Declines were especially severe in the leisure and hospitality sector, ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity Index rose from −53 to −27 in May
Posted: May 27, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Fifth District manufacturing remained soft in May, according to the most recent survey from the Richmond Fed. The composite index rose from a record low of −53 in April to −27 in May, remaining at its lowest level since 2009. All three components — shipments, new orders and employment — were above their April readings but still in ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: May 27, 2020 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 2.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 22, 2020.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 2.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity Contraction Continues in May
Posted: May 26, 2020 at 10:30 AM (Tuesday)

Texas factory activity declined again in May, though at a slower pace than in April, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, remained negative but improved from -55.6 to -28.0, suggesting the contraction in output has ...


New Home Sales in April 2020 at annual rate of 623,000
Posted: May 26, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

New Home Sales
Sales of new single-family houses in April 2020 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 623,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 0.6 percent (±14.9 percent)* above the revised March rate of 619,000, but is 6.2 percent ...


Consumer Confidence held steady in May 2020 to 86.6
Posted: May 26, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® held steady in May, following a sharp decline in April. The Index now stands at 86.6 (1985=100), up from 85.7 in April. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions – declined from 73.0 to 71.1. However, the Expectations Index – based ...


S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices increase 0.8% in March 2020
Posted: May 26, 2020 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for March 2020 show that home prices continue to increase at a modest rate across the U.S.

Please note, due to deed availability delays at the local recording office caused by the COVID-19 crisis, sale transaction records for March 2020 for Wayne County, MI have not been accounted for. Since Wayne is the most populous county in the Detroit metro area, S&P Dow ...


Chicago Fed National Activity Index Suggests Growth Fell Substantially in April
Posted: May 26, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Led by declines in production- and employment-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to –16.74 in April from –4.97 in March. All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made negative contributions in April, and all four categories decreased from March. The index’s three-month ...


Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Survey Suggest Activity weakness continued in May
Posted: May 26, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Responses to the May Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest continued weakness in nonmanufacturing activity in the region. Despite remaining well below zero, the survey’s current indicators for general activity at the firm level, new orders, sales/revenues, and full-time employment all increased this month after reaching all-time ...


Existing-Home Sales dropped 17.8% in April
Posted: May 21, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Existing-home sales dropped in April, continuing what is now a two-month skid in sales brought on by the coronavirus pandemic, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Each of the four major regions experienced a decline in month-over-month and year-over-year sales, with the West seeing the greatest dip in ...


U.S. Leading Economic Index declined 4.4% in April
Posted: May 21, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined 4.4 percent in April to 98.8 (2016 = 100), following a 7.4 percent decline in March, and a 0.2 percent decline in February.

“In April, the US LEI continued on a downward trajectory, after posting the largest decline in its 60-year history in March,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “The erosion has been very widespread, except for stock prices ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 249,000 to 2,438,000
Posted: May 21, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending May 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 2,438,000, a decrease of 249,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 294,000 from 2,981,000 to 2,687,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,042,000, a decrease of 501,000 from the previous week's revised ...


Philadelphia Fed Outlook reported continued weakness in May
Posted: May 21, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Manufacturing firms reported continued weakness in regional manufacturing activity this month, according to results from the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. Despite remaining well below zero, the survey’s current indicators for general activity, new orders, shipments, and employment rose this month after reaching long-term low readings ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: May 20, 2020 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 2.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 15, 2020.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 6 ...


April Housing Starts decreased 30.2%, Permits down 20.8%
Posted: May 19, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Building Permits
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,074,000. This is 20.8 percent (±0.9 percent) below the revised March rate of 1,356,000 and is 19.2 percent (±0.9 percent) below the April 2019 rate of 1,330,000. Single-family authorizations in April were at a ...


NAHB Builder Confidence increased 7 points to 37 in May
Posted: May 18, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

In a signal that the housing market is showing signs of stabilizing and gradually moving forward in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes increased seven points to 37 in May, according to the latest NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. The rise in ...


Treasury International Capital Data for March 2020
Posted: May 15, 2020 at 04:00 PM (Friday)

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for March 2020. The sum total in March of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a net TIC inflow of $349.9 billion. Of this, net foreign private inflows were $354.0 billion, and net ...


Job Openings decreased to 6.2 million in March
Posted: May 15, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The number of total separations increased by 8.9 million to a series high of 14.5 million in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Within separations, the quits rate fell to 1.8 percent and the layoffs and discharges rate increased to 7.5 percent. Job openings decreased to 6.2 million on the last business day of March. ...


Forecasters See Sharply Lower Growth in the Current Quarter, Followed by Recovery
Posted: May 15, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

With many economic activities halted because of the COVID-19 pandemic, the near-term outlook for the U.S. economy looks much weaker now than it did three months ago, according to 42 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters predict the economy will contract at an annual rate of 32.2 percent this ...


Business Inventories down 5.2% in March
Posted: May 15, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for March, adjusted for seasonal and trading day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,386.1 billion, down 5.2 percent (±0.2 percent) from February 2020 and was down 4.9 percent (±0.3 percent) from ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Preliminary May Results inched upward to 73.7
Posted: May 15, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Confidence inched upward in early May as the CARES relief checks improved consumers' finances and widespread price discounting boosted their buying attitudes. Despite these gains, personal financial prospects for the year ahead continued to weaken, falling to the lowest level in almost six years, with declines especially sharp among upper ...


Industrial Production fell 11.2%
Capacity Utilization decreased to 64.9%

Posted: May 15, 2020 at 09:15 AM (Friday)

Total industrial production fell 11.2 percent in April for its largest monthly drop in the 101-year history of the index, as the COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) pandemic led many factories to slow or suspend operations throughout the month. Manufacturing output dropped 13.7 percent, its largest decline on record, as all major industries ...


U.S. Retail Sales for April Decreased 16.4%, Ex-Auto down 17.2%
Posted: May 15, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for April 2020, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $403.9 billion, a decrease of 16.4 percent (± 0.5 percent) from the previous month, and 21.6 percent (± 0.7 percent) below April 2019. Total sales for the February ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions decline sharply in May 2020
Posted: May 15, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Business activity continued to deteriorate significantly in New York State, according to firms responding to the May 2020 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index climbed thirty points, but remained well below zero at -48.5. New orders and shipments continued to decline sharply, though not as steeply as ...


U.S. Import Price Index declined 2.6% in April
Posted: May 14, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

U.S. import prices declined 2.6 percent in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, following a 2.4-percent decrease in March. Both monthly declines were led by falling fuel prices. Prices for U.S. exports fell 3.3 percent in April, after decreasing 1.7 percent the ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 195,000 to 2,981,000
Posted: May 14, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending May 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 2,981,000, a decrease of 195,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 7,000 from 3,169,000 to 3,176,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,616,500, a decrease of 564,000 from the previous week's revised average. ...


Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine Index fell sharply in April to 58.6
Posted: May 13, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

The Conference Board®-Burning Glass® Help Wanted OnLine™ (HWOL) Index fell sharply in April and now stands at 58.6 (July 2018=100), down from 99.4 in March. The Index declined 1.8 percent from February to March and is down 44.6 percent from a year ago.

The Index is based on a model that estimates the number of job openings in the US. The model also includes a measure of online job ads, as well as other key labor market indicators (see program note on page 4). A sharp decline in these labor market indicators resulted in a ...


Producer Price Index declined 1.3% in April, ex Fd & Engy down 0.9%
Posted: May 13, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The Producer Price Index for final demand declined 1.3 percent in April, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This decrease is the largest since the index began in December 2009. Final demand prices fell 0.2 percent in March and 0.6 percent in February. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index moved ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: May 13, 2020 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 0.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 8, 2020.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 0.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 1 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 3 ...


Consumer Price Index declined 0.8% in April, Ex Fd & Engy fell 0.4%
Posted: May 12, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) declined 0.8 percent in April on a seasonally adjusted basis, the largest monthly decline since December 2008, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 0.3 percent before ...


Real Average Hourly Earnings increased 5.6% in April
Posted: May 12, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 5.6 percent from March to April, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from an increase of 4.7 percent in average hourly earnings combined with a decrease of 0.8 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban ...


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 5.5 points to 90.9 in April
Posted: May 12, 2020 at 07:00 AM (Tuesday)

Small business optimism took another dive in April, falling 5.5 points to 90.9, with owners expressing certainty the economy will weaken in the near-term, but expecting it to improve over the next six months. The Optimism Index has fallen 13.6 points over the last two months, with nine of 10 Index components declining in April and ...


Employment Trends Index declined further in April to 43.43
Posted: May 11, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) declined further in April, following a sharp decline in March. The index now stands at 43.43, down from 57.87 (a downward revision) in March. The index is down 60.2 percent from a year ago.

“The Employment Trends Index plunged in March and April, with all components of the index moving far into negative territory,” said Gad Levanon, Head of The Conference Board Labor Markets Institute. “A decline in jobs of this magnitude is unprecedented. The principal ...


Wholesale Inventories down 0.8% in March 2020
Posted: May 8, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

March 2020 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading day differences but not for price changes, were $475.0 billion, down 5.2 percent (±0.5 percent) from the revised February level and were down 5.2 percent (±0.5 percent) from the revised March 2019 ...


April Employment fell by 20,500,000
Unemployment Rate rose to 14.7%

Posted: May 8, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Total nonfarm payroll employment fell by 20.5 million in April, and the unemployment rate rose to 14.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The changes in these measures reflect the effects of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. Employment fell sharply in all major industry sectors, ...


Paychex-IHS Small Business Jobs Index declined to 94.63 in April
Posted: May 8, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Small Business Employment Declines, Reflecting the Ongoing Impact of the Coronavirus Pandemic. The latest Paychex | IHS Markit Small Business Employment Watch shows a decrease in small business employment as the COVID-19 pandemic caused instability for employers nationwide. The jobs index declined 3.65 percent last month to 94.63, a ...


Consumer Credit Increased at an annual rate of 1.75% in March
Posted: May 7, 2020 at 03:00 PM (Thursday)

Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1-3/4 percent during the first quarter. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 10-1/4 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 6 percent. In March, revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 31 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at ...


1Q2020 Productivity Growth Decreased 2.5%
Posted: May 7, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity decreased 2.5 percent in the first quarter of 2020, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output decreased 6.2 percent and hours worked decreased 3.8 percent. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates.) From the first quarter of 2019 to the ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 677,000 to 3,169,000
Posted: May 7, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending May 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 3,169,000, a decrease of 677,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 7,000 from 3,839,000 to 3,846,000. The 4-week moving average was 4,173,500, a decrease of 861,500 from the previous week's revised average. ...


Challenger Layoffs announced 671,129 cuts in April 2020
Posted: May 7, 2020 at 07:00 AM (Thursday)

Job cuts announced by U.S.-based employers spiked to 671,129, the highest single-month total on record. Challenger began tracking job cut announcements in January 1993. Last month’s total was primarily due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which was cited as the reason for 633,082 job cuts, according to a monthly report released Thursday from ...


ADP National Employment Report decreased by 20,236,0000 jobs in April
Posted: May 6, 2020 at 08:15 AM (Wednesday)

Private sector employment decreased by 20,236,000 jobs from March to April according to the April ADP National Employment Report®. The report utilizes data through the 12th of the month. The NER uses the same time period the Bureau of Labor and Statistics uses for their survey. As such, the April NER does not reflect the full impact of COVID-19 ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: May 6, 2020 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 0.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 1, 2020.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 1 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 2 ...



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