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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 202006


Consumer Confidence increased in June 2020 to 98.1
Posted: June 30, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased in June, after virtually no change in May. The Index now stands at 98.1 (1985=100), up from 85.9 in May. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions – improved from 68.4 to 86.2. The Expectations Index – based on ...


Chicago Purchasing Managers Index rose 4.3 points to 36.6 in June
Posted: June 30, 2020 at 09:45 AM (Tuesday)

The Chicago Business Barometer, produced with MNI, rose to 36.6 in June with business activity picking up as Covid-19 related shutdowns eased somewhat. Across Q2, business sentiment slipped 11.8 points to 34.8, hitting the lowest level since Q1 2009.

Among the main five indicators, Production and New Orders saw the largest monthly gains, while Supplier Deliveries and Employment faltered. ...


S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices increase 1.1% in April 2020
Posted: June 30, 2020 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for April 2020 show that home prices continue to increase at a modest rate across the U.S.

Please note that transaction records for March and April 2020 for Wayne County, MI are unavailable due to delays at the local recording office caused by the COVID-19 lockdown. Since Wayne is the most populous county in the Detroit metro area, S&P Dow Jones Indices and ...


Paychex-IHS Small Business Jobs Index held steady to 94.81 in June
Posted: June 30, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The latest Paychex | IHS Markit Small Business Employment Watch shows that employment growth held steady in June, with the jobs index moderating just 0.06 percent to 94.81. However, increases in weekly earnings signify an upward trend as more business reopened their doors, and employees resumed work. As such, annualized one-month growth in ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity rebounded strongly in June
Posted: June 29, 2020 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity rebounded strongly in June, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, climbed from -28.0 to 13.6, indicating moderate expansion in output following three months of record or ...


Pending Home Sales Index rose 44.3% in May
Posted: June 29, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

Pending home sales mounted a record comeback in May, seeing encouraging contract activity after two previous months of declines brought on by the coronavirus pandemic, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Every major region recorded an increase in month-over-month pending home sales transactions, while the South also experienced ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence rose in June to 78.1
Posted: June 26, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer confidence rose moderately in June along with the reopening of the economy in several parts of the country, according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

Compared with the shutdown in April, consumers thought current economic conditions had improved but have only partially offset the steep declines due to the pandemic. Not surprisingly, many consumers thought the economy could only improve from its virtual standstill in ...


Personal Income decreased 4.2%, Spending increased 8.2% in May 2020
Posted: June 26, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Personal income decreased $874.2 billion (4.2 percent) in May according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 3 and 5). Disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $911.1 billion (4.9 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $994.5 billion ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Grew Slightly in June
Posted: June 25, 2020 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity grew slightly after sharply decreasing the past three months, but remained well below year-ago levels. Expectations for future activity rebounded moderately. Month-over-month price indexes increased in June after dropping sharply in previous months. District firms expected prices for both finished goods ...


1Q2020 GDP final estimate decreased 5.0%
Posted: June 25, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 5.0 percent in the first quarter of 2020 (table 1), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 2.1 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the decrease in real GDP was also 5.0 percent. With the third estimate, an upward revision to nonresidential fixed ...


May New Orders for Durable Goods Increased 15.8%, Ex-Trans up 4.0%
Posted: June 25, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in May increased $26.6 billion or 15.8 percent to $194.4 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, followed an 18.1 percent April decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 4.0 percent. Excluding defense, ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 60,000 to 1,480,000
Posted: June 25, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending June 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 1,480,000, a decrease of 60,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 32,000 from 1,508,000 to 1,540,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,620,750, a decrease of 160,750 from the previous week's revised ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: June 24, 2020 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 8.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 19, 2020.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 8.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 9 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 12 ...


New Home Sales in May 2020 at annual rate of 676,000
Posted: June 23, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

New Home Sales
Sales of new single-family houses in May 2020 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 676,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 16.6 percent (±15.5 percent) above the revised April rate of 580,000 and is 12.7 percent ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity Index rose from −27 to 0 in June
Posted: June 23, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing held fairly steady in June, according to the most recent survey from the Richmond Fed. The composite index rose from −27 in May to 0 in June, as shipments were relatively flat, more firms reported increases in new orders, and firms generally reported continued declines in employment. The index for local ...


Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Survey Suggest Activity continued weakness in June
Posted: June 23, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Nonmanufacturing firms reported continued weakness in regional nonmanufacturing activity this month, according to results from the Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey. Most of the survey’s current indicators improved from readings last month: The indexes for general activity at the firm level and sales/revenues showed positive readings ...


Existing-Home Sales fell 9.7% in May
Posted: June 22, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

Existing-home sales fell in May, marking a three-month decline in sales as a result of the coronavirus outbreak, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Each of the four major regions witnessed dips in month-over-month and year-over-year sales, with the Northeast experiencing the greatest ...


Chicago Fed National Activity Index Suggests Economic Growth Increased Substantially in May
Posted: June 22, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Led by improvements in production- and employment-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +2.61 in May from –17.89 in April. All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in May, and all four categories increased from April. The index’s three-month ...


1Q2020 Current Account Deficit Decreased
Posted: June 19, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The U.S. current account deficit, which reflects the combined balances on trade in goods and services and income flows between U.S. residents and residents of other countries, narrowed by $0.1 billion, or 0.1 percent, to $104.2 billion in the first quarter of 2020, according to statistics from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). ...


U.S. Leading Economic Index increased 2.8% in May
Posted: June 18, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 2.8 percent in May to 99.8 (2016 = 100), following a 6.1 percent decline in April, and a 7.5 percent decline in March.

“In May, the US LEI showed a partial recovery from its sharp decline over the previous three months, as economic activity began to pick up again,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “The relative improvement in unemployment ...


Philadelphia Fed Outlook reported signs of improvement in June
Posted: June 18, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Manufacturing conditions in the region showed signs of improvement this month, according to firms responding to the June Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s current indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments returned to positive territory, coinciding with the gradual reopening of the economy in our region and ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 58,000 to 1,508,000
Posted: June 18, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending June 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 1,508,000, a decrease of 58,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 24,000 from 1,542,000 to 1,566,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,773,500, a decrease of 234,500 from the previous week's revised ...


May Housing Starts increased 4.3%, Permits up 14.4%
Posted: June 17, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Building Permits
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,220,000. This is 14.4 percent (±1.1 percent) above the revised April rate of 1,066,000, but is 8.8 percent (±1.0 percent) below the May 2019 rate of 1,338,000. Single-family authorizations in May were at a rate ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: June 17, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 8.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 12, 2020.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 8.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 7 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 10 ...


Business Inventories down 1.3% in April
Posted: June 16, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for April, adjusted for seasonal and trading day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,184.8 billion, down 14.4 percent (±0.2 percent) from March 2020 and was down 18.4 percent (±0.3 percent) from ...


NAHB Builder Confidence jumped 21 points to 58 in June
Posted: June 16, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

In a sign that housing stands poised to lead a post-pandemic economic recovery, builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes jumped 21 points to 58 in June, according to the latest National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). Any reading above 50 indicates a ...


Industrial Production increased 1.4%
Capacity Utilization increased to 64.8%

Posted: June 16, 2020 at 09:15 AM (Tuesday)

Total industrial production increased 1.4 percent in May, as many factories resumed at least partial operations following suspensions related to COVID-19. Even so, total industrial production in May was 15.4 percent below its pre-pandemic level in February. Manufacturing output—which fell sharply in March and April—rose 3.8 percent in May; ...


U.S. Retail Sales for May Increased 17.7%, Ex-Auto up 12.4%
Posted: June 16, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for May 2020, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $485.5 billion, an increase of 17.7 percent (± 0.5 percent) from the previous month, but 6.1 percent (± 0.7 percent) below May 2019. Total sales for the March 2020 ...


Treasury International Capital Data for April 2020
Posted: June 15, 2020 at 04:00 PM (Monday)

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for April 2020. The sum total in April of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a net TIC inflow of $125.3 billion. Of this, net foreign private inflows were $128.0 billion, and net ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions steadied in June 2020
Posted: June 15, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Business activity steadied in New York State, according to firms responding to the June 2020 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. After breaching record lows in April and May, the headline general business conditions index climbed forty-eight points to -0.2. New orders were unchanged from last month and shipments inched higher. Delivery times ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Preliminary June Results increased to 78.9
Posted: June 12, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer sentiment posted its second monthly gain in early June, paced by gains in the outlook for personal finances and more favorable prospects for the national economy due to the reopening of the economy. The turnaround is largely due to renewed gains in employment, with more consumers expecting declines in the jobless rate than at any ...


U.S. Import Price Index increased 1.0% in May
Posted: June 12, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Prices for U.S. imports increased 1.0 percent in May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, after declining 2.6 percent in April and 2.4 percent in March. The May advance was led by higher fuel prices. The price index for U.S. exports rose 0.5 percent in May following a 3.3-percent drop the ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 355,000 to 1,542,000
Posted: June 11, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending June 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 1,542,000, a decrease of 355,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 20,000 from 1,877,000 to 1,897,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,002,000, a decrease of 286,250 from the previous week's revised ...


Producer Price Index rose 0.4% in May, ex Fd & Engy up 0.1%
Posted: June 11, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.4 percent in May, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This increase followed declines of 1.3 percent in April and 0.2 percent in March. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index decreased 0.8 percent for the 12 months ended ...


FOMC target funds rate maintained at 0.00% - 0.25%
Posted: June 10, 2020 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.

The coronavirus outbreak is causing tremendous human and economic hardship across the United States and around the world. The virus and the measures taken to protect public health have induced sharp declines in economic activity and a surge in job losses. Weaker demand and ...


Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine Index fell in May to 70.3
Posted: June 10, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

The Conference Board®-Burning Glass® Help Wanted OnLine™ (HWOL) Index fell in May and now stands at 70.3 (July 2018=100), down from an upwardly revised 88.6 in April. The Index declined 10.0 percent from March to April and is down 31.6 percent from a year ago.

The Help Wanted OnLine™ Index is produced in collaboration with Burning Glass Technologies, the global pioneer in real-time labor market data and analysis. This recent collaboration enhances the Help Wanted OnLine™ program by providing additional insights into important ...


Consumer Price Index declined 0.1% in May, Ex Fd & Engy fell 0.1%
Posted: June 10, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) declined 0.1 percent in May on a seasonally adjusted basis after falling 0.8 percent in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 0.1 percent before ...


Real Average Hourly Earnings decreased 0.9% in May
Posted: June 10, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.9 percent from April to May, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from a decrease of 1.0 percent in average hourly earnings combined with a decrease of 0.1 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: June 10, 2020 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 9.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 5, 2020. The previous week's results included an adjustment for the Memorial ...


Job Openings declined to 5.0 million in April
Posted: June 9, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The number of total separations decreased by 4.8 million to 9.9 million in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Despite the over the month decline, the total separations level is the second highest in series history. Within separations, the quits rate fell to 1.4 percent and the layoffs and discharges rate decreased to ...


Wholesale Inventories up 0.3% in April 2020
Posted: June 9, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

April 2020 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading day differences but not for price changes, were $395.4 billion, down 16.9 percent (±0.5 percent) from the revised March level and were down 20.7 percent (±0.7 percent) from the revised April 2019 ...


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased 3.5 points to 94.4 in May
Posted: June 9, 2020 at 07:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Small Business Optimism Index increased 3.5 points in May to 94.4, a strong improvement from April’s 90.9 reading. Eight of the 10 Index components improved in May and two declined. The NFIB Uncertainty Index increased seven points to 82. Reports of expected business conditions in the next six months increased 5 points to a net 34%, ...


NBER: Determination of the February 2020 Peak in US Economic Activity
Posted: June 8, 2020 at 01:07 PM (Monday)

Cambridge, MA - The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research maintains a chronology of the peaks and troughs of U.S. business cycles. The committee has determined that a peak in monthly economic activity occurred in the U.S. economy in February 2020. The peak marks the end of the expansion that began in June ...


Employment Trends Index increased in May to 46.28
Posted: June 8, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased in May, following sharp declines in March and April. The index now stands at 46.28, up from 42.53 (a downward revision) in April. However, the index is down 57.9 percent from a year ago.

“The Employment Trends Index increased in May. Seven of the eight components made positive contributions to the index, suggesting that the number of jobs will grow in the coming months,” said Gad Levanon, Head of The Conference Board Labor Markets Institute. “The number of ...


Consumer Credit Decreased at an annual rate of 19.50% in April
Posted: June 5, 2020 at 03:00 PM (Friday)

In April, consumer credit decreased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 19-1/2 percent. Revolving credit decreased at a annual rate of 65 percent, while nonrevolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 4 percent.

...


May Employment rose by 2,500,000
Unemployment Rate fell to 13.3%

Posted: June 5, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 2.5 million in May, and the unemployment rate declined to 13.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. These improvements in the labor market reflected a limited resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed in March and April due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic ...


1Q2020 Productivity Growth Decreased 0.9%
Posted: June 4, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity decreased 0.9 percent in the first quarter of 2020, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output decreased 6.5 percent and hours worked decreased 5.6 percent. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates.) From the first quarter of 2019 to the ...


Goods and Services Deficit Increased in April 2020
Posted: June 4, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The nation's international trade deficit in goods and services increased to $49.4 billion in April from $42.3 billion in March (revised), as exports decreased more than imports. The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $49.4 billion in April, up $7.1 billion from ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 249,000 to 1,877,000
Posted: June 4, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending May 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 1,877,000, a decrease of 249,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 3,000 from 2,123,000 to 2,126,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,284,000, a decrease of 324,750 from the previous week's revised average. ...


Challenger Layoffs announced 397,016 cuts in May 2020
Posted: June 4, 2020 at 07:30 AM (Thursday)

Job cuts announced by U.S.-based employers totaled 397,016 in May, down 40.8% from April’s total of 671,129, the highest monthly total on record. Despite the drop, last month’s total is the second highest monthly total on record since global outplacement and business and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. began tracking ...



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