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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 202007



University of Michigan Consumer Confidence sank in July to 72.5
Posted: July 31, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer sentiment sank further in late July due to the continued resurgence of the coronavirus, according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

In the last four months, the Sentiment Index has remained trendless, averaging a decline of 25% from the same period in 2019. The Expectations Index fell back to a six-year low first recorded in May, providing no indication that consumers expect the recession to end anytime ...


Chicago Purchasing Managers Index rose 15.3 points to 51.9 in July
Posted: July 31, 2020 at 09:45 AM (Friday)

The Chicago Business BarometerTM, produced with MNI, rose to 51.9 in July, the highest level since May 2019. Business activity recovered following twelve consecutive months of readings below 50. Nevertheless, companies noted continued uncertainty amid the ongoing ...


Personal Income decreased 1.1%, Spending increased 5.6% in June 2020
Posted: July 31, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Personal income decreased $222.8 billion (1.1 percent) in June according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 3 and 5). Disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $255.3 billion (1.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $737.7 billion ...


Employment Cost Index up 0.5% in 2Q2020
Posted: July 31, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.5 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month
period ending in June 2020, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries
increased 0.4 percent and benefit costs increased 0.8 percent from ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 12,000 to 1,434,000
Posted: July 30, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending July 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 1,434,000, an increase of 12,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 6,000 from 1,416,000 to 1,422,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,368,500, an increase of 6,500 from the previous week's revised average. ...


2Q2020 GDP advance estimate decreased 32.9%
Posted: July 30, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 32.9 percent in the second quarter of 2020 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 5.0 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see "Source Data for the Advance Estimate" on page 2). The "second" estimate for the second quarter, based on more complete data, will be ...


FOMC target funds rate maintained at 0.00% - 0.25%
Posted: July 29, 2020 at 02:02 PM (Wednesday)

The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.

The coronavirus outbreak is causing tremendous human and economic hardship across the United States and around the world. Following sharp declines, economic activity and employment have picked up somewhat in recent months but remain well below their levels at the beginning ...


Pending Home Sales Index rose 16.6% in June
Posted: July 29, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Pending home sales continued to ascend in June, sustaining two consecutive months of increases in contract activity, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Each of the four major regions experienced growth in month-over-month pending home sales transactions, while the Northeast was the only region to not record increases ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: July 29, 2020 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 0.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 24, 2020.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 0.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 0.4 ...


Consumer Confidence decreased in July 2020 to 92.6
Posted: July 28, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® decreased in July, after increasing in June. The Index now stands at 92.6 (1985=100), down from 98.3 in June. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions – improved from 86.7 to 94.2. However, the Expectations Index – based ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity Index rose from 0 to 10 in July
Posted: July 28, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Manufacturing in the Fifth District showed signs of recovery in July, according to the most recent survey from the Richmond Fed. The composite index rose from 0 in June to 10 in July, its first positive reading since March, buoyed by increases in all three components. The indexes for shipments and new orders suggested expansion, while the ...


S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices increase 0.7% in May 2020
Posted: July 28, 2020 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for May 2020 show that home prices continue to increase at a modest rate across the U.S.

Please note that transaction records for March, April and May 2020 for Wayne County, MI are unavailable due to delays at the local recording office caused by the COVID-19 lockdown. Since Wayne is the most populous county in the Detroit metro area, S&P Dow Jones Indices and ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity Recovery Continues in July
Posted: July 27, 2020 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity continued to expand in July following a record contraction in the spring, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, inched up from 13.6 to 16.1, suggesting a slight pickup in the pace of ...


June New Orders for Durable Goods Increased 7.3%, Ex-Trans up 3.3%
Posted: July 27, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in June increased $14.0 billion or 7.3 percent to $206.9 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up two consecutive months, followed a 15.1 percent May increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 3.3 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased ...


New Home Sales in June 2020 at annual rate of 776,000
Posted: July 24, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

New Home Sales
Sales of new single-family houses in June 2020 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 776,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 13.8 percent (±17.8 percent)* above the revised May rate of 682,000 and is 6.9 percent ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Continued to Grow Slightly in July
Posted: July 23, 2020 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity continued to grow slightly after decreasing sharply in the spring, but still remained well below year-ago levels. Expectations for future activity continued to improve slightly. District firms continued to expect prices for both finished goods and raw materials to expand in the next ...


U.S. Leading Economic Index increased 2.0% in June
Posted: July 23, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 2.0 percent in June to 102.0 (2016=100), following a 3.2 percent increase in May and a 6.3 percent decrease in April.

“The June increase in the LEI reflects improvements brought about by the incremental reopening of the economy, with labor market conditions and stock prices in particular contributing positively,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 109,000 to 1,416,000
Posted: July 23, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending July 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 1,416,000, an increase of 109,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 7,000 from 1,300,000 to 1,307,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,360,250, a decrease of 16,500 from the previous week's revised ...


Existing-Home Sales jumped 20.7% in June
Posted: July 22, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Existing-home sales rebounded at a record pace in June, showing strong signs of a market turnaround after three straight months of sales declines caused by the ongoing pandemic, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Each of the four major regions achieved month-over-month growth, with the West experiencing the greatest ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: July 22, 2020 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 4.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 17, 2020.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 4.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 4 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 5 ...


Chicago Fed National Activity Index suggests economic growth increased further in June
Posted: July 21, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Led by improvements in production- and employment-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to +4.11 in June from +3.50 in May. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in June, and two of the four categories increased from May. The ...


Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Survey Suggest Activity shows signs of improvement in July
Posted: July 21, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Nonmanufacturing firms reported signs of improvement in regional nonmanufacturing activity this month, according to results from the Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The indexes for general activity at the firm level and sales/revenues showed positive readings for the second consecutive month after a string of negative readings in ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Preliminary July Results decreased to 73.2
Posted: July 17, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer sentiment retreated in the first half of July due to the widespread resurgence of the coronavirus. The promising gain recorded in June was reversed, leaving the Sentiment Index in early July insignificantly above the April low (+1.4 points). Following the steepest two-month decline on record, it is not surprising that consumers need ...


June Housing Starts increased 17.3%, Permits up 2.1%
Posted: July 17, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Building Permits
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,241,000. This is 2.1 percent (±1.2 percent) above the revised May rate of 1,216,000, but is 2.5 percent (±1.7 percent) below the June 2019 rate of 1,273,000. Single-family authorizations in June were at a rate ...


Treasury International Capital Data for May 2020
Posted: July 16, 2020 at 04:00 PM (Thursday)

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for May 2020. The sum total in May of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a net TIC outflow of $4.5 billion. Of this, net foreign private outflows were $24.9 billion, and net ...


Business Inventories down 2.3% in May
Posted: July 16, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for May, adjusted for seasonal and trading day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,284.3 billion, up 8.4 percent (±0.3 percent) from April 2020, but was down 11.8 percent (±0.4 percent) from ...


NAHB Builder Confidence jumped 14 points to 72 in July
Posted: July 16, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

In a strong signal that the housing market is ready to lead a post-COVID economic recovery, builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes jumped 14 points to 72 in July, according to the latest National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). The HMI now stands at the solid pre-pandemic ...


U.S. Retail Sales for June Increased 7.5%, Ex-Auto up 7.3%
Posted: July 16, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June 2020, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $524.3 billion, an increase of 7.5 percent (± 0.5 percent) from the previous month, and 1.1 percent (± 0.7 percent) above June 2019. Total sales for the April 2020 ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 10,000 to 1,300,000
Posted: July 16, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending July 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 1,300,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 4,000 from 1,314,000 to 1,310,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,375,000, a decrease of 60,000 from the previous week's revised ...


Philadelphia Fed Outlook continued to expand in July
Posted: July 16, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Manufacturing activity in the region continued to expand this month, according to firms responding to the July Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's current indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments showed positive readings for the second consecutive month, coinciding with the phased reopening of the economy in ...


Beige Book: Economic Activity increased, but remained well below pre-pandemic
Posted: July 15, 2020 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Economic activity increased in almost all Districts, but remained well below where it was prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. Consumer spending picked up as many nonessential businesses were allowed to reopen. Retail sales rose in all Districts, led by a rebound in vehicle sales and sustained growth in the food and beverage and home ...


Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine Index rose in June to 89.5
Posted: July 15, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

The Conference Board®-Burning Glass® Help Wanted OnLine™ (HWOL) Index rose in June and now stands at 89.5 (July 2018=100), up from 84.3 in May. The Index rose 8.0 percent from April to May and is down 13.3 percent from a year ago.

The Help Wanted OnLine™ Index is produced in collaboration with Burning Glass Technologies, the global pioneer in real-time labor market data and analysis. This recent collaboration enhances the Help Wanted OnLine™ program by providing additional insights into important ...


Industrial Production increased 5.4%
Capacity Utilization increased to 68.6%

Posted: July 15, 2020 at 09:15 AM (Wednesday)

Total industrial production rose 5.4 percent in June after increasing 1.4 percent in May; even so, it remained 10.9 percent below its pre-pandemic February level. For the second quarter as a whole, the index fell 42.6 percent at an annual rate, its largest quarterly decrease since the industrial sector retrenched after World War II. ...


U.S. Import Price Index rose 1.4% in June
Posted: July 15, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The price index for U.S. imports rose 1.4 percent in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, following a 0.8-percent increase in May. Both the June and May advances were driven by rising fuel prices. U.S. export prices also increased 1.4 percent in June, after advancing 0.4 percent the ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions rose in July 2020
Posted: July 15, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Business activity increased in New York State for the first time in several months, according to firms responding to the July 2020 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index rose to 17.2, its first positive reading since February. New orders and shipments also increased, and unfilled orders were ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: July 15, 2020 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 5.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 10, 2020. Last week's results included an adjustment for the Fourth of ...


Real Average Hourly Earnings decreased 1.7% in June 2020
Posted: July 14, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 1.7 percent from May to June, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from a decrease of 1.2 percent in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.6 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban ...


Consumer Price Index increased 0.6% in June, Ex Fd & Engy up 0.2%
Posted: July 14, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.6 percent in June on a seasonally adjusted basis after falling 0.1 percent in May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 0.6 percent before ...


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased 6.2 points to 100.6 in June
Posted: July 14, 2020 at 07:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Small Business Optimism Index increased 6.2 points in June to 100.6 with eight of the 10 components improving and two declining. Owners anticipate improving sales as the economy continues to re-open with expectations rebounding to a net 13% after April’s lowest reading in survey history (a net negative 42%). Small business owners continue ...


Producer Price Index fell 0.2% in June, ex Fd & Engy up 0.1%
Posted: July 10, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The Producer Price Index for final demand fell 0.2 percent in June, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This decrease followed a 0.4-percent increase in May and a 1.3-percent decline in April. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index moved down 0.8 percent for the 12 months ended ...


Wholesale Inventories down 1.2% in May 2020
Posted: July 9, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

May 2020 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading day differences but not for price changes, were $419.1 billion, up 5.4 percent (±0.7 percent) from the revised April level, but were down 16.2 percent (±0.7 percent) from the revised May 2019 level. ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 99,000 to 1,314,000
Posted: July 9, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending July 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 1,314,000, a decrease of 99,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 14,000 from 1,427,000 to 1,413,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,437,250, a decrease of 63,000 from the previous week's revised ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: July 8, 2020 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 2.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 3, 2020. This week's results include an adjustment for the Fourth of July holiday.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 2.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 8 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 0.4 ...


Consumer Credit Decreased at an annual rate of 5.25% in May
Posted: July 7, 2020 at 03:00 PM (Tuesday)

In May, consumer credit decreased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5-1/4 percent. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 28-1/2 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2-1/4 percent.

...


Job Openings increased to 5.4 million in May
Posted: July 7, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The number of hires increased by 2.4 million to a series high of 6.5 million in May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This was the largest monthly increase of hires since the series began. Total separations decreased by 5.8 million to 4.1 million, the single largest decrease since the series began. Within separations, the ...


Employment Trends Index increased in June to 49.05
Posted: July 6, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased in June, further stabilizing from sharp declines in recent months. The index now stands at 49.05, up from 45.27 (a downward revision) in May. However, the index is still down 54.8 percent from a year ago.

“The Employment Trends Index increased for the second consecutive month, but the virus’s recent proliferation threatens those gains and puts the US labor market’s future in an even more precarious position,” said Gad Levanon, Head of The Conference Board Labor Markets ...


ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 57.1% in June
Posted: July 6, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in June after two consecutive months of contraction, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “The NMI® registered 57.1 percent, 11.7 percentage points higher than the May reading of 45.4 ...


New orders for manufactured goods increased 8.0% in May 2020
Posted: July 2, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Summary
New orders for manufactured goods in May, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, increased $30.5 billion or 8.0 percent to $412.8 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 13.5 percent April decrease. Shipments, up following four consecutive monthly decreases, increased $12.5 billion or 3.1 percent to ...


June Employment rose by 4,800,000
Unemployment Rate fell to 11.1%

Posted: July 2, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 4.8 million in June, and the unemployment rate declined to 11.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. These improvements in the labor market reflected the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed in March and April due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 55,000 to 1,427,000
Posted: July 2, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending June 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 1,427,000, a decrease of 55,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 1,480,000 to 1,482,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,503,750, a decrease of 117,500 from the previous week's revised average. ...



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