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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 202008


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity expanded in August
Posted: August 31, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity expanded in August for the third month in a row following a record contraction in the spring after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, came in at 13.1, down ...


Chicago Purchasing Managers Index eased 0.7 points to 51.2 in August
Posted: August 31, 2020 at 09:45 AM (Monday)

The Chicago Business BarometerTM, produced with MNI, slipped to 51.2 in August. This was the second straight reading above the 50-mark after having sat below it for a full year, as firms stated that business activity picked up further in August.

Among the five main indicators, Order Backlogs was the only category to show a monthly decline, while Supplier Deliveries recorded the largest gain. ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence rose in August to 74.1
Posted: August 28, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer sentiment has remained trendless in the same depressed range it has traveled in the past five months, according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

The August figure posted an insignificant gain of just +0.4 Index points above the April to July average, said U-M economist Richard Curtin, director of the surveys. The small August gain reflected fewer concerns about the year-ahead outlook for the economy, although those ...


Personal Income increased 0.4%, Spending increased 1.9% in July 2020
Posted: August 28, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Personal income increased $70.5 billion (0.4 percent) in July according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 3 and 5). Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $39.9 billion (0.2 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $267.6 billion ...


Pending Home Sales Index rose 5.9% in July
Posted: August 27, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Pending home sales in July achieved another month of positive contract activity, marking three consecutive months of growth, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Each of the four major regions saw gains in both month-over-month and year-over-year pending home ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Rose Moderately in August
Posted: August 27, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity rose moderately from July but remained below year-ago levels, while expectations for future activity expanded further (Chart 1, Tables 1 & 2). Prices paid for raw materials increased and prices received for finished goods were slightly positive. District firms expected prices for both finished goods and ...


2Q2020 GDP preliminary estimate decreased 31.7%
Posted: August 27, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 31.7 percent in the second quarter of 2020 (table 1), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 5.0 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the decrease in real GDP was 32.9 percent. With the second estimate, private inventory investment and personal ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 98,000 to 1,006,000
Posted: August 27, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending August 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 1,006,000, a decrease of 98,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 2,000 from 1,106,000 to 1,104,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,068,000, a decrease of 107,250 from the previous week's revised ...


July New Orders for Durable Goods Increased 11.2%, Ex-Trans up 2.4%
Posted: August 26, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in July increased $23.2 billion or 11.2 percent to $230.7 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up three consecutive months, followed a 7.7 percent June increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 2.4 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: August 26, 2020 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 6.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 21, 2020.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 6.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 7 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 10 ...


New Home Sales in July 2020 at annual rate of 901,000
Posted: August 25, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

New Home Sales
Sales of new single-family houses in July 2020 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 901,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 13.9 percent (±20.0 percent)* above the revised June rate of 791,000 and is 36.3 percent ...


Consumer Confidence decreased in August 2020 to 84.8
Posted: August 25, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® decreased in August, after declining in July. The Index now stands at 84.8 (1985=100), down from 91.7 in July. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions – decreased sharply from 95.9 to 84.2. The Expectations Index – based ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity Index rose from 10 to 18 in August
Posted: August 25, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Manufacturing activity in the Fifth District continued to strengthen in August, according to the most recent survey from the Richmond Fed. The composite index rose from 10 in July to 18 in August, as all three components — shipments, new orders, and employment — increased. The index for local business conditions also rose, and many firms ...


S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices increase 0.6% in June 2020
Posted: August 25, 2020 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for June 2020 show that home prices continue to increase at a modest rate across the U.S.

Please note that transaction records for March, April, May and June 2020 for Wayne County, MI are unavailable due to delays at the local recording office caused by the COVID-19 lockdown. Since Wayne is the most populous county in the Detroit metro area, S&P Dow Jones ...


Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Survey Suggest Activity improvement continued in August
Posted: August 25, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Firms responding to the August Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey indicated continued improvement in business activity. The indexes for general activity at the firm level and sales/revenues showed positive readings for the third consecutive month, coinciding with the phased reopening of the service economy in the region. Additionally, ...


Chicago Fed National Activity Index suggests slower, but still well-above-average growth in July
Posted: August 24, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Led by some moderation in the growth of production- and employment-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) declined to +1.18 in July from +5.33 in June. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in July, but all four categories decreased from June. ...


Existing-Home Sales jumped 24.7% in July
Posted: August 21, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Existing-home sales continued on a strong, upward trajectory in July, marking two consecutive months of significant sales gains, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Each of the four major regions attained double-digit, month-over-month increases, while the Northeast was the only region to show a ...


U.S. Leading Economic Index increased 1.4% in July
Posted: August 20, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 1.4 percent in July to 104.4 (2016 = 100), following a 3.0 percent increase in June and a 3.1 percent increase in May.

“The US LEI increased for the third consecutive month in July, albeit at a slower pace than the sharp increases in the previous two months,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “Despite the recent gains in the LEI, which ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 135,000 to 1,106,000
Posted: August 20, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending August 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 1,106,000, an increase of 135,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 8,000 from 963,000 to 971,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,175,750, a decrease of 79,000 from the previous week's revised average. ...


Philadelphia Fed Outlook reported continued to expand in August
Posted: August 20, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Manufacturing activity in the region continued to expand this month, according to firms responding to the August Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's current indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments remained positive for the third consecutive month but fell from their readings in July. The employment index ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: August 19, 2020 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 3.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 14, 2020.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 3.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 4 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 5 ...


July Housing Starts increased 22.6%, Permits up 18.8%
Posted: August 18, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Building Permits
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,495,000. This is 18.8 percent (±1.1 percent) above the revised June rate of 1,258,000 and is 9.4 percent (±1.5 percent) above the July 2019 rate of 1,366,000. Single-family authorizations in July were at a rate ...


Treasury International Capital Data for June 2020
Posted: August 17, 2020 at 04:00 PM (Monday)

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for June 2020. The sum total in June of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a net TIC outflow of $67.9 billion. Of this, net foreign private outflows were $11.8 billion, and net ...


NAHB Builder Confidence increased 6 points to 78 in August
Posted: August 17, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

In a sign that housing continues to lead the economy forward, builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes increased six points to 78 in August, according to the latest NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. The HMI now stands at its highest reading in the 35-year history of the series, matching ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions fell in August 2020
Posted: August 17, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Business activity edged slightly higher in New York State, according to firms responding to the August 2020 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell fourteen points to 3.7, signaling a slower pace of growth than in July. New orders were little changed, and shipments increased modestly. Unfilled ...


Business Inventories down 1.1% in June
Posted: August 14, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for June, adjusted for seasonal and trading day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,394.0 billion, up 8.4 percent (±0.3 percent) from May 2020, but was down 4.3 percent (±0.4 percent) from ...


Forecasters See Higher Growth in the Quarter
Posted: August 14, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The outlook for the U.S. economy in the current quarter looks brighter now than it did three months ago, according to 35 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters predict the economy will expand at an annual rate of 19.1 percent this quarter, much stronger than the prediction of 10.6 percent from the ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Preliminary August Results largely unchanged to 72.8
Posted: August 14, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer sentiment remained largely unchanged in early August from the July reading (+0.3 points) or the April low (+1.0). Two significant changes since April have been that consumers have become more pessimistic about the five-year economic outlook (-18 points) and more optimistic about buying conditions (+21). Lower interest rates by the ...


Industrial Production increased 3.0%
Capacity Utilization increased to 70.6%

Posted: August 14, 2020 at 09:15 AM (Friday)

Total industrial production rose 3.0 percent in July after increasing 5.7 percent in June; even so, the index in July was 8.4 percent below its pre-pandemic February level. Manufacturing output continued to improve in July, rising 3.4 percent. Most major industries posted increases, though they were much smaller in magnitude than the ...


U.S. Retail Sales for July Increased 1.2%, Ex-Auto up 1.9%
Posted: August 14, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July 2020, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $536.0 billion, an increase of 1.2 percent (± 0.5 percent) from the previous month, and 2.7 percent (± 0.7 percent) above July 2019. Total sales for the May 2020 ...


2Q2020 Productivity Growth increased 7.3%
Posted: August 14, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 7.3 percent in the second quarter of 2020, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output decreased 38.9 percent and hours worked decreased 43.0 percent. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates, and show what the percent change would ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 228,000 to 963,000
Posted: August 13, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending August 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 963,000, a decrease of 228,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 5,000 from 1,186,000 to 1,191,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,252,750, a decrease of 86,250 from the previous week's revised average. ...


U.S. Import Price Index increased 0.7% in July
Posted: August 13, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

U.S. import prices increased 0.7 percent in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, following a 1.4-percent advance in June and a 0.7-percent rise in May. The increases for all 3 months were primarily driven by higher fuel prices. The price index for U.S. exports advanced 0.8 percent in July, after rising 1.2 percent the ...


Consumer Price Index increased 0.6% in July, Ex Fd & Engy up 0.6%
Posted: August 12, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.6 percent in July on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.0 percent before ...


Real Average Hourly Earnings decreased 0.4% in July 2020
Posted: August 12, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

All employees
Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.4 percent from June to July, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from an increase of 0.2 percent in average hourly earnings being more than offset by an increase of 0.6 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: August 12, 2020 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 6.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 7, 2020.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 6.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 6 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 9 ...


Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine Index rose in July to 90.2
Posted: August 11, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board®-Burning Glass® Help Wanted OnLine™ (HWOL) Index rose in July and now stands at 90.2 (July 2018=100), up from 89.2 in June. The Index rose 5.7 percent from May to June and is down 12.5 percent from a year ago.

The Help Wanted OnLine™ Index is produced in collaboration with Burning Glass Technologies, the global pioneer in real-time labor market data and analysis. This recent collaboration enhances the Help Wanted OnLine™ program by providing additional insights into important ...


Producer Price Index rose 0.6% in July, ex Fd & Engy up 0.3%
Posted: August 11, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.6 percent in July, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This rise followed a 0.2-percent decline in June and a 0.4-percent advance in May. The July increase is the largest rise since a 0.7-percent advance in October 2018. On an unadjusted basis, the ...


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 1.8 points to 98.8 in July
Posted: August 11, 2020 at 07:00 AM (Tuesday)

NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index fell 1.8 points to 98.8 in July, near the survey’s historical average. Overall, 4 of the 10 Index components improved, 5 declined, and 1 was unchanged. The NFIB Uncertainty Index increased 7 points to 88. Reports of expected better business conditions in the next six months declined 14 points to a net ...


Job Openings increased to 5.9 million in June
Posted: August 10, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The number of job openings increased to 5.9 million on the last business day of June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires decreased to 6.7 million in June, but was still the second highest level in the series history. The largest monthly increase in hires occurred in May 2020. Total separations increased to 4.8 ...


Employment Trends Index increased in July to 49.46
Posted: August 10, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased in July, following increases in May and June. The index now stands at 50.89, up from 49.46 (an upward revision) in June. However, the index is still down 53.8 percent from a year ago.

“Despite increasing again, the ETI’s July results mark a small improvement compared to the gains made in May and June. The slowing momentum likely resulted from the diminishing impact of the reopening of the economy,” said Gad Levanon, Head of The Conference Board Labor ...


Consumer Credit Increased at an annual rate of 2.50% in June
Posted: August 7, 2020 at 03:00 PM (Friday)

Consumer credit decreased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6-3/4 percent during the second quarter. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 31-3/4 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2 percent. In June, revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 2-3/4 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased ...


Wholesale Inventories down 1.4% in June 2020
Posted: August 7, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

June 2020 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading day differences but not for price changes, were $457.3 billion, up 8.8 percent (±0.9 percent) from the revised May level, but were down 8.5 percent (±1.1 percent) from the revised June 2019 level. ...


July Employment rose by 1,800,000
Unemployment Rate fell to 10.2%

Posted: August 7, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 1.8 million in July, and the unemployment rate fell to 10.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. These improvements in the labor market reflected the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 249,000 to 1,186,000
Posted: August 6, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending August 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 1,186,000, a decrease of 249,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 1,434,000 to 1,435,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,337,750, a decrease of 31,000 from the previous week's revised ...


Challenger Layoffs announced 262,649 cuts in July 2020
Posted: August 6, 2020 at 07:30 AM (Thursday)

Job cuts announced by U.S.-based employers jumped in July to 262,649, the third-largest monthly total ever behind April’s 671,129 and May’s 397,016, according to a monthly report released Thursday by global outplacement and business and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, ...


ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 58.1% in July
Posted: August 5, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Economic activity in the Services sector (formally non-manufacturing sector) grew in July for the second month in a row, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Services Business Survey Committee: “The Services PMI™ registered 58.1 percent, 1 percentage point higher than the June reading of 57.1 percent. ...


Goods and Services Deficit Decreased in June 2020
Posted: August 5, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The nation's international trade deficit in goods and services decreased to $50.7 billion in June from $54.8 billion in May (revised), as exports increased more than imports. The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $50.7 billion in June, down $4.1 billion from ...


ADP National Employment Report Increased by 167,000 jobs in July
Posted: August 5, 2020 at 08:15 AM (Wednesday)

Private sector employment increased by 167,000 jobs from June to July according to the July ADP National Employment Report®. “The labor market recovery slowed in the month of July,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “We have seen the slowdown impact businesses across all sizes ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: August 5, 2020 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 5.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 31, 2020.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 5.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 5 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 7 ...



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