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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 202010


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence rose in October to 81.8
Posted: October 30, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer sentiment has remained largely unchanged in the past month with gains prospects for the overall economy offset by declines in buying attitudes, according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

The expected improvements in the economy were largely driven by those who expected Joe Biden to win, while the declines in buying attitudes were due to uncertain prospects for jobs and incomes due to the resurgence in COVID infection and death rates, said U-M economist ...


Chicago Purchasing Managers Index eased 1.3 points to 61.1 in October
Posted: October 30, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The Chicago Business Barometer, produced with MNI, eased to 61.1 in October, edging lower after a sharp increase in September. However, it still marks the fourth consecutive reading above the 50-mark after sitting below it for a year.

Among the five main indicators, New Orders was the only category to show a monthly uptick, while Production recorded the largest decline. ...


Personal Income increased 0.9%, Spending increased 1.4% in September 2020
Posted: October 30, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Personal income increased $170.3 billion (0.9 percent) in September according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 3 and 5). Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $150.3 billion (0.9 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $201.4 billion ...


Pending Home Sales Index fell 2.2% in September
Posted: October 29, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Pending home sales experienced a minor decline in September after four consecutive months of contract activity growth, according to the National Association of Realtors®. While all four major U.S. regions recorded notable year-over-year increases, only the Northeast achieved month-over-month gains in pending home ...


3Q2020 GDP advance estimate increased 33.1%
Posted: October 29, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 33.1 percent in the third quarter of 2020 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP decreased 31.4 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see "Source Data for the Advance Estimate" on page 2). The "second" estimate for the third quarter, based on more complete data, will be released ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 40,000 to 751,000
Posted: October 29, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending October 24, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 751,000, a decrease of 40,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 4,000 from 787,000 to 791,000. The 4-week moving average was 787,750, a decrease of 24,500 from the previous week's revised average. ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: October 28, 2020 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 1.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 23, 2020.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 1.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 2 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 3 ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity Index rose from 21 to 29 in October
Posted: October 27, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity strengthened in October, according to the most recent survey from the Richmond Fed. The composite index rose from 21 in September to 29 in October, its highest reading on record, buoyed by increases in the shipments and new orders indexes, while the third component — the employment index — was unchanged. ...


Consumer Confidence declined slightly in October 2020 to 100.9
Posted: October 27, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined slightly in October, after increasing sharply in September. The Index now stands at 100.9 (1985=100), down from 101.3 in September. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions – increased from 98.9 to 104.6. However, ...


S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices increase 1.1% in August 2020
Posted: October 27, 2020 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for August 2020 show that home prices continue to increase at a modest rate across the U.S.

Please note that transaction records for July 2020 for Wayne County, MI are now available. Due to delays at the local recording office caused by the COVID-19 lockdown, S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic were previously unable to generate a valid July 2020 update of the ...


September New Orders for Durable Goods Increased 1.9%, Ex-Trans up 0.8%
Posted: October 27, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in September increased $4.3 billion or 1.9 percent to $237.1 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up five consecutive months, followed a 0.4 percent August increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.8 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity Expands for Fifth Straight Month in October
Posted: October 26, 2020 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity expanded in October for the fifth month in a row following a record contraction due to the COVID-19 pandemic, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose three points to 25.5, indicating a ...


New Home Sales in September 2020 at annual rate of 959,000
Posted: October 26, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

New Home Sales
Sales of new single-family houses in September 2020 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 959,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 3.5 percent (±19.9 percent)* below the revised August rate of 994,000, but is 32.1 ...


Chicago Fed National Activity Index Suggests Slower and Slightly Above-Average Growth in September
Posted: October 26, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Led by some further moderation in the growth of production- and employment-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) declined to +0.27 in September from +1.11 in August. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in September, but three of the four ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity rose again in October
Posted: October 22, 2020 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity rose again in October but remained lower than a year ago, while expectations for future activity continued to expand. Prices paid for raw materials grew at a faster pace and prices received for finished goods inched up from a month ago. District firms expected prices for both raw materials and finished ...


U.S. Leading Economic Index increased 0.7% in September
Posted: October 22, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.7 percent in September to 107.2 (2016 = 100), following a 1.4 percent increase in August and a 2.0 percent increase in July.

“The US LEI increased in September, driven primarily by declining unemployment claims and rising housing permits. However, the decelerating pace of improvement suggests the US economy could be losing momentum heading into the final quarter of 2020,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, ...


Existing-Home Sales jumped 9.4% in September
Posted: October 22, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Existing-home sales grew for the fourth consecutive month in September, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Each of the four major regions witnessed month-over-month and year-over-year growth, with the Northeast seeing the highest climb in both categories.

Total existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, rose 9.4% from August to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 6.54 million in September. Overall sales rose year-over-year, up 20.9% from a year ago (5.41 ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 55,000 to 787,000
Posted: October 22, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending October 17, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 787,000, a decrease of 55,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 56,000 from 898,000 to 842,000. The 4-week moving average was 811,250, a decrease of 21,500 from the previous week's revised average. ...


Beige Book: Economic Activity continued to increase at a slight to modest pace
Posted: October 21, 2020 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Economic activity continued to increase across all Districts, with the pace of growth characterized as slight to modest in most Districts. Changes in activity varied greatly by sector. Manufacturing activity generally increased at a moderate pace. Residential housing markets continued to experience steady demand for new and existing homes, ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: October 21, 2020 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 0.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 16, 2020.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 0.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 0.2 ...


September Housing Starts Increased 1.9%, Permits up 5.2%
Posted: October 20, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Building Permits
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,553,000. This is 5.2 percent (±1.6 percent) above the revised August rate of 1,476,000 and is 8.1 percent (±1.8 percent) above the September 2019 rate of 1,437,000. Single-family authorizations in September ...


Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Survey Suggest Activity continued improving in October
Posted: October 20, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Nonmanufacturing activity in the region continued to expand this month, according to firms responding to the Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's current indicators for general activity, new orders, and sales/revenues remained positive, and the survey's index for full-time employment increased. Respondents expect ...


NAHB Builder Confidence increased 2 points to 85 in October
Posted: October 19, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

In a further show of strength for the housing sector, builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes increased two points to 85 in October, further surpassing the previous all-time high of 83 recorded in September, according to the latest NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. These are the first ...


Treasury International Capital Data for August 2020
Posted: October 16, 2020 at 04:00 PM (Friday)

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for August 2020. The sum total in August of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a net TIC inflow of $86.3 billion. Of this, net foreign private inflows were $86.9 billion, and net ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Preliminary October Results rose to 81.2
Posted: October 16, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Slowing employment growth, the resurgence in covid-19 infections, and the absence of additional federal relief payments, prompted consumers to become more concerned about the current economic conditions. Those concerns were largely offset by continued small gains in economic prospects for the year ahead. The Current Conditions Index recorded ...


Industrial Production decreased 0.6%
Capacity Utilization decreased to 71.5%

Posted: October 16, 2020 at 09:15 AM (Friday)

Industrial production fell 0.6 percent in September, its first decline after four consecutive months of gains. The index increased at an annual rate of 39.8 percent for the third quarter as a whole. Although production has recovered more than half of its February to April decline, the September reading was still 7.1 percent below its ...


U.S. Retail Sales for September 2020 Increased 1.9%, Ex-Auto up 1.5%
Posted: October 16, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for September 2020, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $549.3 billion, an increase of 1.9 percent (± 0.5 percent) from the previous month, and 5.4 percent (± 0.7 percent) above September 2019. Total sales for the July ...


U.S. Import Price Index increased 0.3% in September
Posted: October 15, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Prices for U.S. imports increased 0.3 percent in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, following advances of 1.0 percent in August, 1.2 percent in July, and 1.3 percent in June. In September, rising prices for nonfuel imports more than offset lower fuel prices. U.S. export prices increased 0.6 percent in September, ...


Philadelphia Fed Outlook Activity picked up in October
Posted: October 15, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Manufacturing activity in the region picked up this month, according to firms responding to the October Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's current indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments all showed notable improvement. Most future indexes increased and continue to reflect optimism among firms about growth ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions expanded modestly in October 2020
Posted: October 15, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Business activity expanded modestly in New York State, according to firms responding to the October 2020 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell seven points to 10.5, pointing to a slower pace of growth than in September. New orders and shipments continued to increase, while unfilled orders ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 53,000 to 898,000
Posted: October 15, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending October 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 898,000, an increase of 53,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 5,000 from 840,000 to 845,000. The 4-week moving average was 866,250, an increase of 8,000 from the previous week's revised average. ...


Producer Price Index rose 0.4% in September, ex Fd & Engy up 0.4%
Posted: October 14, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The Producer Price Index for final demand advanced 0.4 percent in September, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices rose 0.3 percent in August and 0.6 percent in July. (See table A). On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index increased 0.4 percent for the 12 months ended in September, ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: October 14, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 0.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 9, 2020.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 0.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 0.3 ...


Consumer Price Index increased 0.2% in September, Ex Fd & Engy up 0.2%
Posted: October 13, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in September on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.4 percent in August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.4 percent before ...


Real Average Hourly Earnings decreased 0.1% in September 2020
Posted: October 13, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

All employees
Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.1 percent from August to September, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from an increase of 0.1 percent in average hourly earnings being more than offset by an increase of 0.2 percent in the Consumer Price Index for ...


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 3.8 points to 104.0 in September
Posted: October 13, 2020 at 07:00 AM (Tuesday)

The NFIB Optimism Index rose 3.8 points to 104.0 in September, a historically high reading. Nine of the 10 Index components improved and one declined. The NFIB Uncertainty Index increased 2 points to 92, up from 75 in April.

“As parts of the country continue to open, small businesses are seeing some improvements in foot traffic and sales,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “However, some small businesses are still struggling financially to operate at full capacity while navigating ...


Wholesale Inventories up 0.4% in August 2020
Posted: October 9, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

August 2020 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading day differences but not for price changes, were $486.6 billion, up 1.4 percent (±0.5 percent) from the revised July level, but were down 2.3 percent (±1.1 percent) from the revised August 2019 level. ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 9,000 to 840,000
Posted: October 8, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending October 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 840,000, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 12,000 from 837,000 to 849,000. The 4-week moving average was 857,000, a decrease of 13,250 from the previous week's revised average. ...


Consumer Credit Decreased at an annual rate of 2.00% in August
Posted: October 7, 2020 at 03:00 PM (Wednesday)

In August, consumer credit decreased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2 percent. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 11-1/4 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 3/4 percent.

...


Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine Index rose in September to 105.1
Posted: October 7, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

The Conference Board®-Burning Glass® Help Wanted OnLine™ (HWOL) Index rose in September and now stands at 107.5 (July 2018=100), up from 105.1 in August. The Index rose 1.7 percent from July to August and is up 2.6 percent from a year ago.

The Help Wanted OnLine™ Index is produced in collaboration with Burning Glass Technologies, the global pioneer in real-time labor market data and analysis. This recent collaboration enhances the Help Wanted OnLine™ program by providing additional insights into important ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: October 7, 2020 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 4.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 2, 2020.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 4.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 5 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 8 ...


Job Openings little changed at 6.5 million in August
Posted: October 6, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The number of job openings was little changed at 6.5 million on the last business day of August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires were little changed at 5.9 million in August. Total separations decreased to 4.6 million. Within separations, the quits rate was little changed at 2.0 percent while the layoffs and ...


Goods and Services Deficit Increased in August 2020
Posted: October 6, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The nation's international trade deficit in goods and services increased to $67.1 billion in August from $63.4 billion in July (revised), as imports increased more than exports. The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $67.1 billion in August, up $3.7 billion from ...


ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 57.8% in September
Posted: October 5, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

Economic activity in the services sector grew in September for the fourth month in a row, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM® Report On Business.®

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Services Business Survey Committee: “The Services PMI™ registered 57.8 percent, 0.9 percentage point higher than the August reading of 56.9 ...


Employment Trends Index increased in September to 54.80
Posted: October 5, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased in September, following increases in May, June, July, and August. The index now stands at 54.80, up from 53.30 (an upward revision) in August. “The Employment Trends Index increased again in September, but over the last two months its gains have been more modest, indicating that ...


New orders for manufactured goods increased 0.7% in August 2020
Posted: October 2, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Summary
New orders for manufactured goods in August, up four consecutive months, increased $3.2 billion or 0.7 percent to $470.1 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 6.5 percent July increase. Shipments, also up four consecutive months, increased $1.4 billion or 0.3 percent to $481.3 billion. This followed a 4.7 ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence rose in September to 80.4
Posted: October 2, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer sentiment continued to improve in late September, with the Sentiment Index reaching its highest level in six months, according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

It should be noted that the interviewing period ended prior to the presidential debate, said U-M economist Richard Curtin, director of the surveys. ...


September Employment rose by 661,000
Unemployment Rate fell to 7.9%

Posted: October 2, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 661,000 in September, and the unemployment rate declined to 7.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. These improvements in the labor market reflect the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to ...


New York Purchasing Managers Business Activity jumped to 56.1 in September
Posted: October 2, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

In September, New York City purchasing managers reported significant short term improvements in Current Business Conditions and Current Revenues against a drop in Six Month Outlook, according to the survey taken by the Institute for Supply Management New York.

New York Metro
Current Business Conditions gained back the losses reported in August, increasing 13.2 points from 42.9 to 56.1 in September. This is much like the increase reported (and then lost) from May to June. This index reflects the largest change seen in this month's ...


ISM Manufacturing Index decreased to 55.4% in September
Posted: October 1, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector grew in September, with the overall economy notching a fifth consecutive month of growth, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “The September PMI® registered 55.4 percent, down 0.6 percentage point from the August reading of 56 percent. This ...



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