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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 202101


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence remained largely unchanged in January to 79
Posted: January 29, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The Consumer Sentiment Index has shown only relatively small variations since the pandemic started, averaging 81.5 in 2020, marginally above January’s 79.0. Needless to say, Sentiment levels were well below the average of 97.0 from 2017 to 2019, according to the University of Michigan Surveys ...


Pending Home Sales Index fell 0.3% in December
Posted: January 29, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Despite dropping slightly in the last month of 2020, the latest pending home sales registered as the highest ever recorded in the month of December, according to the National Association of Realtors®. The decrease marks the fourth consecutive month of month-over-month declines. While contract transitions fell in one of the four major U.S. ...


Chicago Purchasing Managers Index rose 5.1 points to 63.8 in January
Posted: January 29, 2021 at 09:45 AM (Friday)

The Chicago Business BarometerTM, produced with MNI, rose 5.1 points to 63.8 in January. The index now stands at the highest level since July 2018, boosted by a pick-up in activity at the beginning of 2021.

Among the main five indicators, Production saw the largest monthly gain, followed by New Orders. Employment recorded the biggest decline. ...


Personal Income increased 0.6%, Spending decreased 0.2% in December 2020
Posted: January 29, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Personal income increased $116.6 billion (0.6 percent) in December according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 3 and 5). Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $111.6 billion (0.6 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $27.9 billion ...


Employment Cost Index up 0.7% in 4Q2020
Posted: January 29, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.7 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in December 2020, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries increased 0.9 percent and benefit costs increased 0.6 percent from ...


Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index suggests slower above-trend growth in December 2020
Posted: January 29, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Index suggests slower, but still above-trend Midwest growth through December

The Midwest Economy Index (MEI), which approximates quarterly growth at a monthly frequency, fell to +1.26 in December from +1.83 in November. Contributions to the December MEI from three of the four broad sectors of nonfarm business activity and all five Seventh Federal ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity increased at a faster pace in January
Posted: January 28, 2021 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity increased at a faster pace in January compared to a month ago and was similar to year ago levels. Expectations for future activity rose further. Prices paid for raw materials continued to rise rapidly, to the highest reading since 2011. Prices for finished goods also expanded from a month ago and a year ...


New Home Sales in December 2020 at annual rate of 842,000
Posted: January 28, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

New Home Sales
Sales of new single-family houses in December 2020 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 842,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 1.6 percent (±15.8 percent)* above the revised November rate of 829,000 and is 15.2 ...


U.S. Leading Economic Index increased 0.3% in December
Posted: January 28, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.3 percent in December to 109.5 (2016 = 100), following a 0.7 percent increase in November and a 0.9 percent increase in October.

“The US LEI’s slowing pace of increase in December suggests that US economic growth continues to moderate in the first quarter of 2021. Improvements in the US LEI were very broad-based among the leading indicators, except for rising initial claims for unemployment insurance ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 67,000 to 847,000
Posted: January 28, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending January 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 847,000, a decrease of 67,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 14,000 from 900,000 to 914,000. The 4-week moving average was 868,000, an increase of 16,250 from the previous week's revised average. ...


4Q2020 GDP advance estimate increased 4.0%
Posted: January 28, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.0 percent in the fourth quarter of 2020 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 33.4 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject ...


FOMC target funds rate maintained at 0.00% - 0.25%
Posted: January 27, 2021 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.

The COVID-19 pandemic is causing tremendous human and economic hardship across the United States and around the world. The pace of the recovery in economic activity and employment has moderated in recent months, with weakness concentrated in the sectors most adversely ...


December New Orders for Durable Goods Increased 0.2%, Ex-Trans up 0.7%
Posted: January 27, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in December increased $0.4 billion or 0.2 percent to $245.3 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up eight consecutive months, followed a 1.2 percent November increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.7 percent. Excluding defense, new orders ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: January 27, 2021 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 4.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 22, 2021.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 4.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 5 ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity Index fell from 19 to 14 in January 2021
Posted: January 26, 2021 at 10:30 AM (Tuesday)

The Fifth District manufacturing sector showed signs of growth in January, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite index fell from 19 in December to 14 in January but remained in expansionary territory, as did all three of its component indexes — shipments, new orders, and ...


Consumer Confidence improved moderately in January 2021 to 89.3
Posted: January 26, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® improved moderately in January, after decreasing in December. The Index now stands at 89.3 (1985=100), up from 87.1 in December. However, the Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions – decreased from 87.2 to 84.4. The Expectations ...


S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices increase 1.1% in November 2020
Posted: January 26, 2021 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for November 2020 show that home prices continue to increase across the U.S.

Please note that transaction records for September 2020 for Wayne County, MI are now available. Due to delays at the local recording office caused by the COVID-19 lockdown, S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic were previously unable to generate a valid September 2020 update ...


Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Survey Further Weakening in Activity in January
Posted: January 26, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Responses to the January Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest further weakening in nonmanufacturing activity in the region. The indexes for general activity at the firm level and sales/revenues both declined and posted negative readings. Although the indexes for new orders and full-time employment increased, readings for both ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity Expands at a Slower Pace in January
Posted: January 25, 2021 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity continued to expand in January, albeit at a markedly slower pace, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell from 26.8 to 4.6, indicating a sharp deceleration in ...


Chicago Fed National Activity Index points to an uptick in economic growth in December
Posted: January 25, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to +0.52 in December from +0.31 in November. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in December, but three categories decreased from November. The index’s ...


Existing-Home Sales increased 0.7% in December
Posted: January 22, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Existing-home sales rose in December, with home sales in 2020 reaching their highest level since 2006, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Activity in the major regions was mixed on a month-over-month basis, but each of the four areas recorded double-digit year-over-year growth ...


December Housing Starts Increased 5.8%, Permits up 4.5%
Posted: January 21, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Building Permits
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,709,000. This is 4.5 percent (±1.4 percent) above the revised November rate of 1,635,000 and is 17.3 percent (±1.8 percent) above the December 2019 rate of 1,457,000. Single-family authorizations in December ...


Philadelphia Fed Outlook Activity continued to grow in January
Posted: January 21, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Manufacturing activity in the region continued to grow, according to firms responding to the January Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's current indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments increased notably this month and remained positive for the eighth consecutive month. The survey's future indexes remained ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 26,000 to 900,000
Posted: January 21, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending January 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 900,000, a decrease of 26,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 39,000 from 965,000 to 926,000. The 4-week moving average was 848,000, an increase of 23,500 from the previous week's revised average. ...


NAHB Builder Confidence slipped 3 points to 83 in January
Posted: January 20, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Rising material costs led by a huge upsurge in lumber prices along with a resurgence of the coronavirus across much of the nation pushed builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes down three points to 83 in January, according to the latest NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. Despite the ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: January 20, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 1.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 15, 2021.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 5 ...


Treasury International Capital Data for November 2020
Posted: January 19, 2021 at 04:00 PM (Tuesday)

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for November 2020. The sum total in November of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a net TIC inflow of $214.1 billion. Of this, net foreign private inflows were $233.5 billion, and ...


Business Inventories down 0.1% in November
Posted: January 15, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for November, adjusted for seasonal and trading day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,480.8 billion, down 0.1 percent (±0.2 percent)* from October 2020, but was up 1.5 percent (±0.4 percent) from ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Preliminary January Results dipped to 79.2
Posted: January 15, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer sentiment posted trivial declines in early January despite the horrendous rise in covid-19 deaths, the insurrection, and the impeachment of Trump. Two offsetting shifts helped narrow the January loss in sentiment: the covid-19 vaccines and a partisan shift in expectations due to the anticipated impact of Biden's economic ...


Industrial Production increased 1.6%
Capacity Utilization increased to 74.5%

Posted: January 15, 2021 at 09:15 AM (Friday)

Industrial production advanced 1.6 percent in December, with gains of 0.9 percent for manufacturing, 1.6 percent for mining, and 6.2 percent for utilities. The increase for utilities resulted from a rebound in demand for heating after unseasonably warm weather in November. For the fourth quarter as a whole, total industrial production rose at ...


Producer Price Index rose 0.3% in December, ex Fd & Engy up 0.5%
Posted: January 15, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.3 percent in December, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This rise followed advances of 0.1 percent in November and 0.3 percent in October. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index moved up 0.8 percent in 2020, after increasing ...


U.S. Retail Sales for December 2020 Decreased 0.7%, Ex-Auto down 1.4%
Posted: January 15, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for December 2020, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $540.9 billion, a decrease of 0.7 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, but 2.9 percent (±0.7 percent) above December 2019. Total sales for the 12 months ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions were little changed in January 2021
Posted: January 15, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Business activity was little changed in New York State, according to firms responding to the January 2021 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index held steady at 3.5. New orders and shipments edged higher. Unfilled orders continued to move lower, and delivery times continued to lengthen somewhat. ...


U.S. Import Price Index advanced 0.9% in December 2020
Posted: January 14, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

U.S. import prices advanced 0.9 percent in December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, following a 0.2-percent increase the previous month. Higher fuel and nonfuel prices both contributed to the December rise in import prices. Prices for U.S. exports also rose in December, advancing 1.1 percent, after increasing 0.7 percent ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 181,000 to 965,000
Posted: January 14, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending January 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 965,000, an increase of 181,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 3,000 from 787,000 to 784,000. The 4-week moving average was 834,250, an increase of 18,250 from the previous week's revised average. ...


Beige Book: Economic Activity increased modestly
Posted: January 13, 2021 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Most Federal Reserve Districts reported that economic activity increased modestly since the previous Beige Book period, although conditions remained varied: two Districts reported little or no change in activity, while two others noted a decline. Reports on consumer spending were mixed. Some Districts noted declines in retail sales and demand ...


Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine Index fell in December to 99.4
Posted: January 13, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

The Conference Board®-Burning Glass® Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Index fell in December and now stands at 99.4 (July 2018=100), down from 102.9 in November. The Index declined 1.0 percent from October to November and is down 2.8 percent from a year ago.

The Help Wanted OnLine® Index is produced in collaboration with Burning Glass Technologies, the global pioneer in real-time labor market data and analysis. This recent collaboration enhances the Help Wanted OnLine® program by providing additional insights into important ...


Consumer Price Index increased 0.4% in December, Ex Fd & Engy up 0.1%
Posted: January 13, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent in December on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.2 percent in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The seasonally adjusted increase in ...


Real Average Hourly Earnings increased 0.4% in December 2020
Posted: January 13, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

All employees
Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.4 percent from November to December, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from an increase of 0.8 percent in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.4 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: January 13, 2021 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 16.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 8, 2021. The previous week's results included an adjustment for the holidays.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 16.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 69 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 20 ...


Job Openings little changed at 6.5 million in November
Posted: January 12, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The number of job openings was little changed at 6.5 million on the last business day of November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires were little changed at 6.0 million while total separations increased to 5.4 million. Within separations, the quits rate was unchanged at 2.2 percent while the layoffs and discharges ...


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined to 95.9 in December
Posted: January 12, 2021 at 07:00 AM (Tuesday)

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined 5.5 points in December to 95.9, falling below the average Index value since 1973 of 98. Nine of the 10 Index components declined and only one improved. Owners expecting better business conditions over the next six months declined 24 points to a net ...


Employment Trends Index virtually unchanged in December to 99.01
Posted: January 11, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) was virtually unchanged in December, after seven consecutive monthly increases that started in May. The index now stands at 99.01, down from 99.05 (an upward revision) in November. The index is currently down 9.2 percent from a ...


Consumer Credit Increased at an annual rate of 4.40% in November
Posted: January 8, 2021 at 03:00 PM (Friday)

In November, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.4 percent. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 1.0 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 6.1 percent.

...


Wholesale Inventories unchanged% in November 2020
Posted: January 8, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

November 2020 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading day differences but not for price changes, were $496.7 billion, up 0.2 percent (±0.4 percent)* from the revised October level, but were down 0.2 percent (±1.1 percent)* from the revised November ...


Paychex-IHS Small Business Jobs Index shows a slowing to 94.06 in December
Posted: January 8, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The latest Paychex | IHS Markit Small Business Employment Watch benchmark report reveals the effect of increasing COVID-19 cases on small businesses in the U.S. The Jobs Index shows a slowing of 0.24 percent in December to 94.06, a decrease of 4.18 percent from the year prior. A decline in weekly hours worked and hourly earnings ...


December Employment declined by 140,000
Unemployment Rate unchanged at 6.7%

Posted: January 8, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Total nonfarm payroll employment declined by 140,000 in December, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The decline in payroll employment reflects the recent increase in coronavirus (COVID-19) cases and efforts to contain the pandemic. In December, job losses in leisure ...


ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 57.2% in December
Posted: January 7, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Economic activity in the services sector grew in December for the seventh month in a row, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Services Business Survey Committee: “The Services PMI™ registered 57.2 percent, 1.3 percentage points higher than the November reading of 55.9 ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 3,000 to 787,000
Posted: January 7, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending January 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 787,000, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 3,000 from 787,000 to 790,000. The 4-week moving average was 818,750, a decrease of 18,750 from the previous week's revised average. ...


Goods and Services Deficit Increased in November 2020
Posted: January 7, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The nation's international trade deficit in goods and services increased to $68.1 billion in November from $63.1 billion in October (revised), as imports increased more than exports. The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $68.1 billion in November, up $5.0 ...



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