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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 202403


Personal Income Increased 0.3%, Spending Increased 0.8% in February 2024
Posted: March 29, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Personal income increased $66.5 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in February, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 2 and 3). Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $50.3 billion (0.2 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity declined further in March 2024
Posted: March 28, 2024 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity declined further in March, and expectations for future activity were again steady. Prices continued to grow at a similar rate to previous months, with a continued spread between raw materials and finished goods growth.

The month-over-month composite index was -7 in March, down from -4 in February and up from -9 in January (Tables 1 & 2). The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. Activity for ...


Pending Home Sales increased 1.6% in February 2024
Posted: March 28, 2024 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Pending home sales in February grew 1.6%, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The Midwest and South posted monthly gains in transactions while the Northeast and West recorded losses. All four U.S. regions registered year-over-year decreases.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – increased to 75.6 in February. Year over year, pending transactions were down 7.0%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence March 2024 Results up to 79.4
Posted: March 28, 2024 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Sentiment remained essentially unchanged since January 2024, solidifying the large gains from December and January, according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

Consumers exhibited confidence that inflation will continue to soften, said U-M economist Joanne Hsu, director of the Surveys of Consumers. Assessments and expectations of personal finances improved modestly from last month, as the perceived negative effects of high prices ...


Chicago Purchasing Managers Index declines to 41.4 in March 2024
Posted: March 28, 2024 at 09:45 AM (Thursday)

The Chicago Business BarometerTM, produced with MNI declines 2.6 points to 41.4 in March. This is the fourth consecutive monthly decrease, pushing the index further into contractionary territory, and marking the lowest print since May 2023. We also note that this print is 4 points below the 2023 average. THE MOVE LOWER WAS DRIVEN BY A ...


4Q2023 GDP final estimate increased 4.9% and increased 3.4% Year 2023
Posted: March 28, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023 (table 1), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 4.9 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 3.2 percent. The update primarily reflected upward revisions to consumer spending and ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 2,000 to 210,000
Posted: March 28, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending March 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 210,000, a decrease of 2,000
from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 210,000 to 212,000. The
4-week moving average was 211,000, a decrease of 750 from the previous week's revised average. The ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: March 27, 2024 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 0.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 22, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 0.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one ...


Consumer Confidence fell in March 2024 to 104.7
Posted: March 26, 2024 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® was 104.7 (1985=100) in March, essentially unchanged from a downwardly revised 104.8 in February.

The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—increased to 151.0 (1985=100) in March from 147.6 in February. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity slowed to −11 in March 2024
Posted: March 26, 2024 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity slowed in March, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index decreased from −5 in February to −11 in March. Of its three component indexes, shipments remained solidly negative at −14, new orders fell from −5 to −17, and employment fell from ...


S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices decrease 0.1% in January 2024
Posted: March 26, 2024 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the January 2024 results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices. The leading measure of U.S. home prices shows that three out of the 20 major metro markets reported month-over-month price increases.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 6.0% annual gain in January, up from a 5.6% rise in the previous month. The 10-City Composite showed an increase of 7.4%, up from a 7.0% ...


February 2024 New Orders for Durable Goods increased 1.4%, Ex-Trans up 0.5%
Posted: March 26, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in February, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, increased $3.7 billion or 1.4 percent to $277.9 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 6.9 percent January decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.5 percent. Excluding defense, new ...


Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Survey suggest activity declined in March 2024
Posted: March 26, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Nonmanufacturing activity in the region declined this month, according to the firms responding to the March Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The index for general activity at the firm level turned negative. The new orders index remained negative, while the sales/revenues index fell to a near-zero reading. The full-time employment ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity weakened in March 2024
Posted: March 25, 2024 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity weakened in March after stabilizing in February, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell five points to -4.1, a reading that suggests a slight decline in output month ...


Chicago Fed National Activity Index suggests economic growth increased in February 2024
Posted: March 25, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to +0.05 in February from –0.54 in January. All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index increased from January, and three categories made positive contributions in February. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to –0.18 in February from ...


New Home Sales in February 2024 at annual rate of 662,000
Posted: March 25, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

New Home Sales
Sales of new single‐family houses in February 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 662,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 0.3 percent (±16.2 percent)* below the revised January rate of 664,000, but is 5.9 ...


U.S. Leading Economic Index increased by 0.1% in February 2024
Posted: March 21, 2024 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased by 0.1 percent in February 2024 to 102.8 (2016=100), following a 0.4 percent decline in January. Over the six-month period between August 2023 and February 2024, the LEI contracted by 2.6 percent—a smaller decrease than the 3.8 percent decline over the previous ...


Existing-Home Sales Increased 9.5% in February 2024
Posted: March 21, 2024 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Existing-home sales climbed in February, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Among the four major U.S. regions, sales jumped in the West, South and Midwest, and were unchanged in the Northeast. Year-over-year, sales declined in all regions.

Total existing-home sales– completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – bounced 9.5% from January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.38 million in February. Year-over-year, sales slid 3.3% (down from 4.53 million in ...


Philadelphia Fed Mfg Outlook Activity expanded overall in March 2024
Posted: March 21, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Manufacturing activity in the region continued to expand overall, according to the firms responding to the March Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's indicator for general activity edged lower but remained positive, while the index for shipments ticked up and the index for new orders turned positive. The employment index ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 2,000 to 210,000
Posted: March 21, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending March 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 210,000, a decrease of 2,000
from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 3,000 from 209,000 to 212,000. The
4-week moving average was 211,250, an increase of 2,500 from the previous week's revised average. ...


4Q2023 Current Account Deficit Decreased
Posted: March 21, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The U.S. current-account deficit, which reflects the combined balances on trade in goods and services and income flows between U.S. residents and residents of other countries, narrowed by $1.6 billion, or 0.8 percent, to $194.8 billion in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to statistics released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic ...


FOMC target funds rate maintained at 5.25% - 5.50%
Posted: March 20, 2024 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are moving into better balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: March 20, 2024 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 1.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 15, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one ...


Treasury International Capital Data for January 2024
Posted: March 19, 2024 at 04:00 PM (Tuesday)

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for January 2024. The sum total in January of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a net TIC outflow of $8.8 billion. Of this, net foreign private outflows were $26.9 billion, and ...


February 2024 Housing Starts Increased 10.7%, Permits up 1.9%
Posted: March 19, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Building Permits
Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,518,000. This is 1.9 percent above the revised January rate of 1,489,000 and is 2.4 percent above the February 2023 rate of 1,482,000. Single‐family authorizations in February were at a rate of 1,031,000; this ...


NAHB Builder Confidence climbed 3 points to 51 in March 2024
Posted: March 18, 2024 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

A lack of existing inventory that continues to drive buyers to new home construction, coupled with strong demand and mortgage rates below last fall’s cycle peak helped push builder sentiment above a key marker in March.

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes climbed three points to 51 in March, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. This is the highest level since July 2023 and marks ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Preliminary March 2024 Results up to 76.5
Posted: March 15, 2024 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer sentiment moved little this month with a 0.4 index point decrease that is well within the margin of error, and thus sentiment has been steady and essentially unchanged since January 2024. Sentiment remained almost 25% above November 2023 and is currently halfway between the historic low reached during the peak of inflation in June ...


February 2024 Industrial Production edged up 0.1%, Capacity Utilization remained at 78.3%
Posted: March 15, 2024 at 09:15 AM (Friday)

Industrial production edged up 0.1 percent in February after declining 0.5 percent in January. In February, the output of manufacturing rose 0.8 percent and the index for mining climbed 2.2 percent. Both gains partly reflected recoveries from weather-related declines in January. The index for utilities fell 7.5 percent in February because ...


U.S. Import Price Index rose 0.3% in February 2024
Posted: March 15, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

U.S. import prices rose 0.3 percent in February, after advancing 0.8 percent in January, the U.S. Bureau of
Labor Statistics reported today. Higher prices for both nonfuel and fuel imports contributed to the overall
increase. Prices for U.S. exports advanced 0.8 percent in February following a 0.9-percent increase ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions continued to decline in March 2024
Posted: March 15, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Business activity continued to decline in New York State, according to firms responding to the March 2024 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell nineteen points to -20.9. Demand softened as new orders declined significantly, and shipments were lower. Unfilled orders continued to shrink, and ...


Business Inventories down 1.3% in January 2024
Posted: March 14, 2024 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for January, adjusted for seasonal and trading day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,833.3 billion, down 1.3 percent (±0.2 percent) from December 2023 and was down 1.2 percent (±0.4 percent) from ...


Producer Price Index increased 0.6% in February 2024, ex Fd & Engy rose 0.3%
Posted: March 14, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.6 percent in February, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices increased 0.3 percent in January and edged down 0.1 percent in December 2023. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index advanced 1.6 percent for the 12 months ...


U.S. Retail Sales for February 2024 up 0.6%, Ex-Auto up 0.3%
Posted: March 14, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for February 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $700.7 billion, up 0.6 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 1.5 percent (±0.7 percent) above February 2023. Total sales for the December 2023 ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 1,000 to 209,000
Posted: March 14, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending March 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 209,000, a decrease of 1,000
from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 7,000 from 217,000 to 210,000.
The 4-week moving average was 208,000, a decrease of 500 from the previous week's revised average. ...


Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine Index increased in February 2024 to 155.8
Posted: March 13, 2024 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

The Conference Board−Lightcast Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Index rose in February 2024 to 155.8 (July 2018=100), up from an upwardly revised 151.1 in January. The 3.1 percent increase between February and January followed a 0.3 percent decrease between January and December. Overall, the Index is down 7.3 percent from one ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: March 13, 2024 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 7.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 8, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 7.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one ...


Consumer Price Index increased 0.4% in February 2024, Ex Fd & Engy up 0.4%
Posted: March 12, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent in February on a seasonally adjusted basis, after rising 0.3 percent in January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.2 percent before ...


Real Average Hourly Earnings decreased 0.4% in February 2024
Posted: March 12, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

All employees

Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.4 percent from January to February, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from an increase of 0.1 percent in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of ...


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index decreased to 89.4 in February 2024
Posted: March 12, 2024 at 07:00 AM (Tuesday)

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index decreased in February to 89.4, marking the 26th consecutive month below the 50-year average of 98. Twenty-three percent of small business owners reported that inflation was their single most important business problem in operating their business, up three points from last month and replacing labor quality ...


Employment Trends Index decreased in February 2024 to 112.29
Posted: March 11, 2024 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) decreased in February to 112.29, from a downwardly revised 113.18 in January. The Employment Trends Index is a leading composite index for employment. When the Index increases, employment is likely to grow as well, and vice versa. Turning points in the Index indicate that a change in the trend ...


February 2024 Employment rose by 275,000
Unemployment Rate increased to 3.9%

Posted: March 8, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 275,000 in February, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in government, in food services and drinking places, in social assistance, and in transportation ...


Consumer Credit Increased at an annual rate of 4.7% in January 2024
Posted: March 7, 2024 at 03:00 PM (Thursday)

In January, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.7 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 7.6 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 3.6 percent.

...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Unch at 217,000
Posted: March 7, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending March 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 217,000, unchanged from the
previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 215,000 to 217,000. The 4-week
moving average was 212,250, a decrease of 750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous ...


Goods and Services Deficit increased in January 2024
Posted: March 7, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $67.4 billion in January, up $3.3 billion from $64.2 billion in December, revised.

Exports, Imports, and Balance
January exports were $257.2 billion, $0.3 billion more than December exports. January imports were $324.6 billion, $3.6 billion more than December imports. ...


4Q2023 Productivity Growth increased 3.2%
Posted: March 7, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 3.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output increased 3.5 percent and hours worked increased 0.3 percent. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates.) From the same quarter a year ago, ...


Challenger Layoffs announced 84,638 Job Cuts in February 2024
Posted: March 7, 2024 at 07:30 AM (Thursday)

U.S.-based employers announced 84,638 cuts in February, up 3% from the 82,307 cuts announced one month prior. It is 9% higher than the 77,770 cuts announced in the same month in 2023, according to a report released Thursday from global outplacement and business and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.
Challenger, Gray ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: March 6, 2024 at 03:30 PM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 9.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 1, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 9.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one ...


Beige Book: Economic Activity increased slightly since early January
Posted: March 6, 2024 at 03:00 PM (Wednesday)

Economic activity increased slightly, on balance, since early January, with eight Districts reporting slight to modest growth in activity, three others reporting no change, and one District noting a slight softening. Consumer spending, particularly on retail goods, inched down in recent weeks. Several reports cited heightened price sensitivity ...


Wholesale Inventories down 0.3% in January 2024
Posted: March 6, 2024 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

January 2024 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading day differences but not for price changes, were $657.2 billion, down 1.7 percent (±0.4 percent) from the revised December level and were down 1.5 percent (±0.9 percent) from the revised January ...


Job Openings changed little at 8.9 million in January 2024
Posted: March 6, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The number of job openings changed little at 8.9 million on the last business day of January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.4 million) and layoffs and discharges ...



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