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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - FOMC



Beige Book: Economic Activity expanded at a modest pace
Posted: September 4, 2019 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

On balance, reports from Federal Reserve Districts suggested that the economy expanded at a modest pace through the end of August. Although concerns regarding tariffs and trade policy uncertainty continued, the majority of businesses remained optimistic about the near-term outlook. Reports on consumer spending were mixed, although auto sales ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity Index rose from −12 to 1 in August
Posted: August 27, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity was moderate in August, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite index rose from −12 in July to 1 in August, buoyed by increases in the indexes for shipments and new orders. However, the third component, employment, fell. Firms reported increasing ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity Expansion Picks Up Pace in August
Posted: August 26, 2019 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity expanded at a faster clip in August, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, shot up nine points to 17.9, its highest reading in nearly ...


Chicago Fed National Activity points to slower economic growth in July
Posted: August 26, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to –0.36 in July from +0.03 in June. All four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from June, and all four categories made negative contributions to the index in July. The index’s three-month moving average, ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity declined in August
Posted: August 22, 2019 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity declined in August, while expectations for future activity edged higher (Chart 1). The month-over-month price indexes for raw materials and finished products decreased, turning negative for the first time since 2016. Firms continued to expect prices to rise over the next 6 ...


Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Survey Suggest Activity Continued to Grow in August
Posted: August 20, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Responses to the August Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest continued expansion in nonmanufacturing activity in the region. The indexes for general activity at the firm level and sales/revenues both increased, while the new orders index fell. The index for full-time employment ticked upward. Survey responses indicated ...


Philadelphia Fed Outlook Reported Activity continued to grow in July
Posted: August 15, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Manufacturing activity in the region continued to grow, according to results from the August Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's broad indicators remained positive, although their movements were mixed this month: The general activity, shipments, and employment indicators decreased from their readings last month, but the ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions grew modestly in August
Posted: August 15, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Business activity increased modestly in New York State, according to firms responding to the August 2019 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index was little changed at 4.8. New orders increased after declining for the prior two months, and shipments continued to expand. Unfilled orders fell, delivery ...


Forecasters See Weaker Outlook for Near-Term Growth
Posted: August 9, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The U.S. economy for the next three quarters looks slightly weaker now than it did three months ago, according to 35 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The panel predicts real GDP will grow at an annual rate of 1.8 percent this quarter, 2.0 percent next quarter, and 1.9 percent in the first quarter of 2020, ...


FOMC target funds rate lowered to 2.00% - 2.25%
Posted: July 31, 2019 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Although growth of household spending has picked up from ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity Continues Moderate Expansion in July
Posted: July 29, 2019 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity continued to expand in July, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, moved from 8.9 to 9.3, indicating output growth continued at roughly the same pace as ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity was dipped in July
Posted: July 25, 2019 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity was largely unchanged in July, while expectations for future activity remained moderately positive. The price index for raw materials increased from both last month and a year ago. Prices received for finished products were ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity Index fell from 2 to -12 in July
Posted: July 23, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity weakened in July, according to the most recent survey from the Richmond Fed. The composite index fell from 2 in June to −12 in July, its lowest reading since January 2013, as all three components — shipments, new orders, and employment — registered declines. Backlogs of orders also fell, reaching a value ...


Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Survey Suggest Activity Expanded in July
Posted: July 23, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Responses to the July Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest an expansion of nonmanufacturing activity in the region. The index for general activity at the firm level and the index for sales/revenues both gained after two consecutive months of decline, while the new orders index increased for the second consecutive month. ...


Chicago Fed National Activity points to economic growth near trend in June
Posted: July 22, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) ticked up to –0.02 in June from –0.03 in May. One of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from May, and two of the four categories made negative contributions to the index in June. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, ticked up to –0.26 in June ...


Philadelphia Fed Outlook Reported Activity recovered sharply in July
Posted: July 18, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Manufacturing conditions in the region showed improvement this month, according to firms responding to the July Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s indexes for general activity, new orders, shipments, and employment remained positive and increased from their June readings. Most of the survey’s future activity indexes ...


Beige Book: Economic Activity expanded at a modest pace
Posted: July 17, 2019 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Overall Economic Activity
Economic activity continued to expand at a modest pace overall from mid-May through early July, with little change from the prior reporting period. In most Districts, sales of retail goods increased slightly overall, although vehicle sales were flat. Activity in the nonfinancial services sector rose further. ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions grew modestly in July
Posted: July 15, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Business activity rebounded modestly in New York State, according to firms responding to the July 2019 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index climbed out of negative territory, rising thirteen points to 4.3. New orders were little changed, and shipments increased. Unfilled orders and inventories ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity was flat in June
Posted: June 27, 2019 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity was flat in June, while expectations for future activity remained solid. Price indexes were lower than a month ago, indicating that prices continue to rise but at a slower pace. The raw materials price index was lower than a year ago, and expectations for future price indexes also ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity Index dropped slightly from 5 to 3 in June
Posted: June 25, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity changed little in June, according to the most recent survey from the Richmond Fed. The composite index dropped slightly from 5 in May to 3 in June, resulting from a drop in the employment index, while the other two components, shipments and new orders rose slightly. Most firms reported some improvement ...


Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Survey Suggest Activity Moderated in June
Posted: June 25, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Responses to the June Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest a moderation of nonmanufacturing activity in the region. The index for general activity at the firm level fell for the second consecutive month and the index for sales/revenues fell for the third consecutive month, while the full-time employment and new orders indexes edged ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity Continues to Expand but Pace Slows in June
Posted: June 24, 2019 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity continued to expand in June, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose from 6.3 to 8.9, indicating output growth accelerated slightly ...


Chicago Fed National Activity points to a pickup in economic growth in May
Posted: June 24, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to –0.05 in May from –0.48 in April. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from April, but only one of the four categories made a positive contribution to the index in May. The index’s ...


Philadelphia Fed Outlook Reported Activity declined in June
Posted: June 20, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Manufacturing conditions in the region weakened this month, according to firms responding to the June Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The current activity index declined to a reading just above zero this month. The survey’s indexes for new orders, shipments, and employment remained positive but also declined from their May readings. Most ...


FOMC target funds rate maintained at 2.25% - 2.50%
Posted: June 19, 2019 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in May indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic activity is rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Although growth of household spending appears to have picked up ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions took a sharp turn downward in June
Posted: June 17, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Business activity took a sharp turn downward in New York State, according to firms responding to the June 2019 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index plummeted twenty-six points, its largest monthly decline on record, to -8.6. New orders receded, while shipments increased modestly. Unfilled orders ...


Beige Book: Economic Activity expanded at a modest pace
Posted: June 5, 2019 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Overall Economic Activity
Economic activity expanded at a modest pace overall from April through mid-May, a slight improvement over the previous period. Almost all Districts reported some growth, and a few saw moderate gains in activity. Manufacturing reports were generally positive, but some Districts noted signs of slowing activity and a ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity Index inched up from 3 to 5 in May
Posted: May 29, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity was moderate in May, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite index inched up from 3 in April to 5 in May, as shipments and new orders had fairly flat reading and the third component, employment, remained positive. Firms reported growth in spending ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity Continues but Pace Slows in May
Posted: May 28, 2019 at 10:30 AM (Tuesday)

Texas factory activity continued to expand in May, albeit at a slower pace, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell six points to 6.3, indicating output growth decelerated ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity grew at a modest pace in May
Posted: May 23, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity continued to grow at a modest pace in May, and expectations for future activity remained mostly solid (Chart 1). Price indexes showed little change, with most indexes lower than a year ago and some slight upward movement in future raw ...


Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Survey Suggest Activity Continued Growth in May
Posted: May 21, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Responses to the May Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey lightly moderated but continued to suggest expansion in nonmanufacturing activity in the region. The indexes for general activity at the firm level, new orders, and sales/revenues all remained positive but fell from last month’s readings. The index for full-time employment edged ...


Chicago Fed National Activity points to slower economic growth in April
Posted: May 20, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to –0.45 in April from +0.05 in March. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from March, and two of the four categories made negative contributions to the index in April. The index’s three-month ...


Philadelphia Fed Outlook Reported Activity continued to grow in May
Posted: May 16, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Results from the May Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest continued growth for the region’s manufacturing sector. The survey’s indexes for general activity, shipments, and employment increased from their April readings. The new orders index remained positive but decreased modestly. The survey’s future activity index, after falling ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions picked up significantly May
Posted: May 15, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Business activity picked up significantly in New York State, according to firms responding to the May 2019 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index climbed eight points to 17.8, its highest level in six months. New orders and shipments also grew at a faster pace than in recent months. Delivery times ...


Forecasters See Lower Near-Term Growth
Posted: May 10, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The outlook for growth in the U.S. economy over the next four quarters is slightly weaker than that in the last survey, according to 40 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters predict real GDP will grow at an annual rate of 1.9 percent this quarter and 2.1 percent next quarter, down from the ...


FOMC target funds rate maintained at 2.25% - 2.50%
Posted: May 1, 2019 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic activity rose at a solid rate. Job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Growth of household spending and business fixed investment slowed in the ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity Picks Up Slightly in April
Posted: April 29, 2019 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

exas factory activity continued to expand in April, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, ticked up two points to 12.4, indicating output growth accelerated slightly ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity grew more modestly in April
Posted: April 25, 2019 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity grew more modestly in April, and expectations for future activity eased slightly but remained mostly solid (Chart 1). Price indexes showed little change, with some slight upticks in month-over-month selling prices and future raw ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity Index fell from 10 to 3 in April
Posted: April 23, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity moderated in April, according to the latest survey from the Richmond Fed. The composite index fell from 10 in March to 3 in April, weighed down by slightly negative readings in the indexes for both shipments and new orders but buoyed by a positive reading for the third component index, employment. Firms ...


Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Survey Suggest Activity Continued to Expand in April
Posted: April 23, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Responses to the April Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest nonmanufacturing activity continued to expand in the region. The indexes for general activity at the firm level and new orders were in line with their readings from last month, and the sales/revenues index declined. The full-time employment index retreated from last ...


Chicago Fed National Activity points to a pickup in economic growth in March
Posted: April 22, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Led by improvements in employment-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to –0.15 in March from –0.31 in February. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from February, but three of the four categories made negative contributions to the index in March. The ...


Philadelphia Fed Outlook Reported Activity continued to grow in April
Posted: April 18, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Regional manufacturing activity continued to grow in April, according to results from this month’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. Although the survey’s indicators for general activity and shipments fell from their readings last month, the indicators for new orders, employment, and the workweek improved. The survey’s indexes for ...


Beige Book: Economic Activity expanded at a slight-to-moderate pace in March and early April
Posted: April 17, 2019 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Overall Economic Activity
Economic activity expanded at a slight-to-moderate pace in March and early April. While most Districts reported that growth continued at a similar pace as the previous report, a few Districts reported some strengthening. There was little change in the outlook among contacts in reporting Districts, with those ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions grew modestly in April
Posted: April 15, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Business activity grew modestly in New York State, according to firms responding to the April 2019 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index rose six points to 10.1, indicating that growth picked up somewhat but remained fairly subdued. New orders rose slightly, and shipments continued to grow ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity accelerated moderately in March
Posted: March 28, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity accelerated moderately in March, and expectations for future activity also increased. The month-over-month finished goods and raw materials price indexes both declined in March, while price expectations for the next six months ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity Index fell from 16 to 10 in March
Posted: March 26, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity grew moderately in March, according to the latest survey from the Richmond Fed. The composite index fell from 16 in February to 10 in March but remained in expansionary territory. The fall came from drops in both the shipments and new orders indexes, but the third component, employment, increased. Firms ...


Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Activity Suggest suggest continued return to expansion in March
Posted: March 26, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Responses to the March Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest a continued return to expansion in nonmanufacturing activity in the region. The indexes for general activity at the firm level, new orders, sales/revenues, and full-time employment all rose for the second consecutive month. The firms continued to report overall increases ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity Continued to Expand in Marc­h
Posted: March 25, 2019 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity continued to expand in Marc­h, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, held fairly steady at 11.5, indicating output growth continued at about the same pace as ...


Chicago Fed National Activity points to little change in economic growth in February
Posted: March 25, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) edged down to –0.29 in February from –0.25 in January. Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from January, and three of the four categories made negative contributions to the index in February. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved down ...


Forecasters See Lower Near-Term Output Growth and somewhat stronger employment growth
Posted: March 22, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Lower Near-Term Output Growth
The U.S. economy looks weaker now in the next few quarters than it did four months ago, according to 38 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters predict real GDP will grow at an annual rate of 1.5 percent this quarter and 2.4 percent next quarter, down from the ...



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