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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - FOMC


Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Survey suggest activity indicated overall improvement in November 2023
Posted: November 21, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Firms responding to the November Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey indicated overall improvement in business activity. The indexes for general activity at the firm level and sales/revenues returned to positive territory for the first time since July. The index for new orders rose but remained negative. The firms continued to report ...


Chicago Fed National Activity Index Suggests economic growth declined in October 2023
Posted: November 21, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to –0.49 in October from –0.02 in September. All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from September, and all four categories made negative contributions in October. The index’s three-month moving ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Declined Again in November 2023
Posted: November 16, 2023 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity declined again in November, and expectations for future activity ticked down slightly, while price indexes were mixed with a slight increase in raw materials prices but a decline in finished goods prices (Chart 1, Tables 1 & 2). Going forward, firms expect both finished goods and raw materials prices ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions grew modestly in November 2023
Posted: November 15, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Business activity grew modestly in New York State, according to firms responding to the November 2023 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index climbed fourteen points to 9.1. New orders continued to fall slightly, while shipments picked up. Unfilled orders declined significantly, and delivery ...


Philadelphia Fed Survey of Forecasters Predict Upgrade Growth and Job Gains in 2023 and 2024
Posted: November 13, 2023 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The outlook for the U.S. economy looks somewhat better now than it did three months ago, according to 34 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters predict the economy will expand at an annual rate of 1.3 percent this quarter, up slightly from the prediction of 1.2 percent in the last survey. On ...


FOMC target funds rate maintained at 5.25% - 5.50%
Posted: November 1, 2023 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity expanded at a strong pace in the third quarter. Job gains have moderated since earlier in the year but remain strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated.

The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. Tighter financial and credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. The extent of these effects remains uncertain. The Committee remains highly attentive to ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Continued to Decline in October 2023
Posted: October 26, 2023 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity continued to decline in October, and expectations for future activity stayed mostly flat. District firms’ finished product prices stayed steady this month, and the raw materials prices declined slightly for the first time since 2020. Going forward, firms expect both finished product and raw materials prices ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity edged down to 3 in October 2023
Posted: October 24, 2023 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity changed little in October, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index edged down from 5 in September to 3 in October. Of its three component indexes, shipments edged up from 7 to 9, new orders fell from 3 to −4, and employment remained at ...


Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Survey suggest activity remained weak overall in October 2023
Posted: October 24, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Nonmanufacturing activity in the region remained weak overall, according to the firms responding to the October Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's current indicators for general activity at the firm level and for sales/revenues edged up but remained negative. Meanwhile, the index for new orders fell further into ...


Chicago Fed National Activity Index Suggests economic growth near historical trend in September 2023
Posted: October 23, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to +0.02 in September from –0.22 in August. All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index increased from August, and two categories made positive contributions in September. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved up to a neutral value in ...


Philadelphia Fed Mfg Outlook Activity was mixed in October 2023
Posted: October 19, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Manufacturing activity in the region was mixed this month, according to the firms responding to the October Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's indicator for general activity remained negative, while the indicators for new orders and shipments were positive but low. The employment index turned positive, and both price ...


Beige Book: Economic Activity indicated little to no change since the September report
Posted: October 18, 2023 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Overall Economic Activity
Most Districts indicated little to no change in economic activity since the September report. Consumer spending was mixed, especially among general retailers and auto dealers, due to differences in prices and product offerings. Tourism activity continued to improve, although some Districts reported slight slowing ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions edged lower in October 2023
Posted: October 16, 2023 at 08:39 AM (Monday)

Business activity edged lower in New York State, according to firms responding to the October 2023 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell seven points to -4.6. New orders fell slightly, while shipments were little changed. Unfilled orders declined, and delivery times shortened. Inventories ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Declined Somewhat in September 2023
Posted: September 28, 2023 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity declined somewhat in September, and expectations for future activity stayed mostly flat. District firms’ finished product prices picked up slightly this month even as growth in raw materials prices slowed slightly. However, firms expect raw materials price increases to outpace finished product prices in ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity improved to 5 in September 2023
Posted: September 26, 2023 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity improved in September, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index increased from −7 in August to 5 in September. Each of its three component indexes — shipments, new orders, and employment — increased. The shipments index improved from −5 ...


Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Survey suggest activity declined overall in September 2023
Posted: September 26, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Nonmanufacturing activity in the region declined overall this month, according to the firms responding to the September Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The indexes for general activity at the firm level, new orders, and sales/revenues all remained negative. The firms continued to report overall increases in full-time employment ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity resumed in September 2023
Posted: September 25, 2023 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Growth in Texas factory activity resumed in September, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rebounded nearly 20 points to 7.9—its highest reading of ...


Chicago Fed National Activity Index Suggests slower economic growth in August 2023
Posted: September 25, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to –0.16 in August from +0.07 in July. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from July, and all four categories made negative contributions in August. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, ticked up to –0.14 in August from –0.15 ...


Philadelphia Fed Mfg Outlook Activity declined overall in September 2023
Posted: September 21, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Manufacturing activity in the region declined overall, according to the firms responding to the September Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments returned to negative territory after turning positive in August. On balance, the firms continued to report a decline in ...


FOMC target funds rate maintained at 5.25% - 5.50%
Posted: September 20, 2023 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have slowed in recent months but remain strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated.

The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. Tighter credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. The extent of these effects remains uncertain. The Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks. ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions was little changed in September 2023
Posted: September 15, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Business activity was little changed in New York State, according to firms responding to the September 2023 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index rose twenty-one points to 1.9. New orders and shipments increased. Delivery times remained steady, and inventories continued to contract. Labor ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity contracted again in August 2023
Posted: August 28, 2023 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity contracted again in August, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell six points to -11.2—its lowest level since May 2020.

Other measures of manufacturing activity also indicated contraction in August. The new orders index has been in negative territory for more than a year and posted a reading of -15.8, up slightly from July. The capacity utilization index edged down to -3.7, and the shipments ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity was unchanged in August 2023
Posted: August 24, 2023 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity was unchanged in August, and expectations for future activity rose slightly. District firms’ finished product prices continued to decline on a monthly basis even as raw materials prices increased. Firms continue to expect input and output price increases in the next ...


Chicago Fed National Activity Index Suggests a pickup in economic growth in July 2023
Posted: August 24, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.12 in July from –0.33 in June. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index increased from June, and two of the four categories made positive contributions in July. The index’s three-month moving ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity edged up to -7 in August 2023
Posted: August 22, 2023 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity remained sluggish in August, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index edged up from −9 in July to −7 in August. Two of its three component indexes — shipments and new orders — also increased. The shipments index edged up from −6 in July ...


Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Survey suggest activity remained weak overall in August 2023
Posted: August 22, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Nonmanufacturing activity in the region remained weak overall this month, according to the firms responding to the August Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The index for general activity at the firm level fell to a near-zero reading, while the index for new orders remained negative and the index for sales/revenues returned to ...


Philadelphia Fed Mfg Outlook Activity expanded overall in August 2023
Posted: August 17, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Manufacturing activity in the region expanded overall, according to the firms responding to the August Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments were all positive for the first time since May 2022. However, the firms reported a decline in employment, on balance. The price ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions declined in August 2023
Posted: August 15, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Business activity declined in New York State, according to firms responding to the August 2023 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell twenty points to -19.0. New orders and shipments fell significantly. Delivery times were steady, and inventories moved lower. Labor market indicators pointed to ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity declined in July 2023
Posted: July 31, 2023 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity declined in July, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, held fairly steady at -4.8, a reading indicative of a modest contraction ...


FOMC target funds rate raised to 5.25% - 5.50%
Posted: July 26, 2023 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated.

The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. Tighter credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. The extent of these effects remains uncertain. The Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks. ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Declined Moderately in April 2023
Posted: April 27, 2023 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity declined moderately in April, while expectations for future activity remained positive. Price indexes increased versus last month but decreased from the previous year and are not expected to change significantly over the next ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity Fell to -10 in April 2023
Posted: April 25, 2023 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing firms reported deterioration in business conditions in April, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index fell from −5 in March to −10 in April. Two of its three component indexes — shipments and new orders — declined. The shipments index dropped ...


Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Survey suggest activity continues to weaken in April 2023
Posted: April 25, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Responses to the April Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest continued weakening in nonmanufacturing activity in the region. The indexes for general activity at the firm level, sales/revenues, and new orders all declined. Both price indexes remain somewhat elevated, and the respondents continue to anticipate growth over the next ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity was flat in April 2023
Posted: April 24, 2023 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity was flat in April after growing modestly in March, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, inched down from 2.5 to 0.9, with the near-zero reading suggestive of no change in output from ...


Chicago Fed National Activity Index Suggests to steady economic growth in March 2023
Posted: April 24, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) was unchanged at –0.19 in March. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made negative contributions in March, and two categories deteriorated from February. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to +0.01 in March from –0.09 ...


Philadelphia Fed Mfg Outlook Activity continued to decline in April 2023
Posted: April 20, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Manufacturing activity in the region continued to decline overall in April, according to the firms responding to this month's Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's broad indicators for activity remained negative, although the indexes for new orders and shipments rose. The employment index suggests steady employment overall. ...


Beige Book: Economic Activity was little changed
Posted: April 19, 2023 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Overall economic activity was little changed in recent weeks. Nine Districts reported either no change or only a slight change in activity this period while three indicated modest growth. Expectations for future growth were mostly unchanged as well; however, two Districts saw outlooks deteriorate. Consumer spending was generally seen as flat ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions increased in April 2023
Posted: April 17, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Business activity increased in New York State for the first time in five months, according to firms responding to the April 2023 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index shot up thirty-five points to 10.8. New orders and shipments surged. Delivery times held steady, and inventories moved higher. Despite ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity Improved Modestly to -5 in March 2023
Posted: March 28, 2023 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing firms reported modest improvements in business conditions in March, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index rose from -16 in February to -5 in March. Of its three component indexes, shipments saw the largest change, rising notably from -15 ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity expanded slightly in March 2023
Posted: March 27, 2023 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Modest growth resumes in Texas manufacturing, but outlooks continue to worsen. Texas factory activity expanded slightly in March after contracting in February, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, moved up from -2.8 to 2.5, ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity was Mostly Flat in March 2023
Posted: March 23, 2023 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity remained essentially flat for the third month in a row, and expectations for future activity increased slightly. Monthly price indexes were mixed with an increase in materials prices but a slight decrease in finished goods prices. Expectations for future raw materials and finished goods prices remained ...


Chicago Fed National Activity Index Suggests Economic Growth Declined in February 2023
Posted: March 23, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to –0.19 in February from +0.23 in January. All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made negative contributions in February, and three categories deteriorated from January. The index’s three-month moving ...


FOMC target funds rate raised to 4.75% - 5.00%
Posted: March 22, 2023 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have picked up in recent months and are running at a robust pace; the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated.

The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. Recent developments are likely to result in tighter credit conditions for households and businesses and to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. The extent of these effects is uncertain. The Committee remains ...


Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Survey suggest activity weakened in March 2023
Posted: March 21, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Nonmanufacturing activity in the region weakened this month, according to the firms responding to the March Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The index for general activity fell to a near-zero reading, and the index for new orders at the firm level turned negative. The sales/revenues index also decreased but remained positive, and ...


Philadelphia Fed Mfg Outlook Activity continued to decline in March 2023
Posted: March 16, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Manufacturing activity in the region continued to decline overall, according to the firms responding to March's Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's broad indicators for current activity were all negative. On balance, the firms also reported a decline in employment. Most future indicators weakened, suggesting that the firms ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions continued to decline in March 2023
Posted: March 15, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Business activity continued to decline in New York State, according to firms responding to the March 2023 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell nineteen points to -24.6. New orders dropped significantly, and shipments declined modestly. Delivery times shortened for a second consecutive ...


Beige Book: Economic Activity increased slightly
Posted: March 8, 2023 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Overall Economic Activity
Overall economic activity increased slightly in early 2023. Six Districts reported little or no change in economic activity since the last report, while six indicated economic activity expanded at a modest pace. On balance, supply chain disruptions continued to ease. Consumer spending generally held steady, though a ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity deteriorated to -16 in February 2023
Posted: February 28, 2023 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing firms reported deterioration in business conditions in February, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index decreased from −11 in January to -16 in February. Of its three component indexes, shipments saw the largest change, declining notably from ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity declined in February 2023
Posted: February 27, 2023 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity declined in February for the first time since May 2020, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, edged down from 0.2 to -2.8, a reading suggestive of a modest contraction ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity was Mostly Flat in February 2023
Posted: February 23, 2023 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity was flat, and expectations for future activity were modest. Monthly and annual survey price indexes continued to increase slightly, and expectations for future raw material and finished goods prices also rose.

The month-over-month composite index was 0 in February, up slightly from -1 in January and -4 in December. The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. The pace of factory was ...



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