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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - FOMC


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions continued to decline in March 2024
Posted: March 15, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Business activity continued to decline in New York State, according to firms responding to the March 2024 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell nineteen points to -20.9. Demand softened as new orders declined significantly, and shipments were lower. Unfilled orders continued to shrink, and ...


Beige Book: Economic Activity increased slightly since early January
Posted: March 6, 2024 at 03:00 PM (Wednesday)

Economic activity increased slightly, on balance, since early January, with eight Districts reporting slight to modest growth in activity, three others reporting no change, and one District noting a slight softening. Consumer spending, particularly on retail goods, inched down in recent weeks. Several reports cited heightened price sensitivity ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity declined slightly in February 2024
Posted: February 29, 2024 at 02:16 PM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity declined slightly in February, and expectations for future activity moderated but remained slightly positive. Price growth for raw materials slowed somewhat this month and finished product prices also eased, although future increases are expected. On a year-over-year basis, both price indexes increased ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity was flat to −5 in February 2024
Posted: February 27, 2024 at 10:30 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity was flat in February, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index increased from −15 in January to −5 in February. Of its three component indexes, shipments remained solidly negative at −15, new orders increased from −16 to −5, and ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity stabilized in February 2024
Posted: February 26, 2024 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity stabilized in February after contracting in January, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rebounded 16 points to 1.0. The near-zero reading suggests flat output month ...


Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Survey suggest activity was mostly steady in February 2024
Posted: February 21, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Firms responding to the February Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey indicated mostly steady business activity. The index for general activity at the firm level declined to a near-zero reading. The index for sales/revenues was little changed, while the index for new orders turned negative. On balance, the firms continued to report an ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions edged slightly lower in February 2024
Posted: February 15, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Business activity edged slightly lower in New York State, according to firms responding to the February 2024 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index rose forty-one points but remained negative at -2.4. New orders declined modestly, while shipments edged higher. Unfilled orders continued to shrink, ...


Philadelphia Fed Mfg Outlook Activity continued to decline overall in January 2024
Posted: February 15, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Manufacturing activity in the region expanded overall, according to the firms responding to the February Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's indicators for current general activity and shipments rose and turned positive. The indicator for new orders also rose but remained negative. The employment index suggests declines ...


FOMC target funds rate maintained at 5.25% - 5.50%
Posted: January 31, 2024 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have moderated since early last year but remain strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are moving into better balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity contracted in January 2024
Posted: January 29, 2024 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity contracted in January after stabilizing in December, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, dropped 17 points to -15.4—its lowest reading ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity declined moderately in January 2024
Posted: January 25, 2024 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity declined moderately, and expectations for future activity expanded further. Prices paid for raw materials in January increased sharply relative to last month and this time last year. Heading forward, raw materials prices are expected to continue increasing at a faster pace than finished ...


Chicago Fed National Activity Index Index suggests economic growth decreased in December 2023
Posted: January 25, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to –0.15 in December from +0.01 in November. All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from November, and three categories made negative contributions in December. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved down to –0.28 in December ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity remained sluggish to -15 in January 2024
Posted: January 23, 2024 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity remained sluggish in January, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index decreased from −11 in December to −15 in January. Of its three component indexes, shipments edged up from −17 to −15, new orders edged down from −14 to −16, ...


Philadelphia Fed Mfg Outlook Activity continued to decline overall in January 2024
Posted: January 18, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Manufacturing activity in the region continued to decline overall, according to the firms responding to the January Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments rose but remained negative. The employment index was little changed and continues to suggest mostly steady levels ...


Beige Book: Economic Activity reported little or no change
Posted: January 17, 2024 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Overall Economic Activity
A majority of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts reported little or no change in economic activity since the prior Beige Book period. Of the four Districts that differed, three reported modest growth and one reported a moderate decline. Consumers delivered some seasonal relief over the holidays by meeting ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions dropped sharply in January 2024
Posted: January 16, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Business activity dropped sharply in New York State, according to firms responding to the January 2024 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell twenty-nine points to -43.7, its lowest reading since May 2020. New orders and shipments also posted sharp declines. Unfilled orders continued to ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity slowed to -11 in December 2023
Posted: December 27, 2023 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity slowed in December, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index decreased from −5 in November to −11 in December. Of its three component indexes, shipments fell from −8 to −17, new orders decreased from −5 to −14, and employment edged ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity stabilized in December 2023
Posted: December 26, 2023 at 10:30 AM (Tuesday)

Texas factory activity stabilized in December after contracting in November, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, pushed up nine points to 1.4, with the near-zero reading indicating little change in manufacturing output ...


Chicago Fed National Activity Index Suggests economic growth increased in November 2023
Posted: December 26, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.03 in November from –0.66 in October. All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index increased from October, and two categories made positive contributions in November. The index’s three-month moving ...


Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Survey suggest activity indicated overall improvement in November 2023
Posted: December 26, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Nonmanufacturing activity in the region expanded this month, according to the firms responding to the December Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The indexes for general activity at the firm level and sales/revenues remained positive, while the new orders index improved but remained negative. The firms continued to report overall ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity was flat in December 2023
Posted: December 21, 2023 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity was flat in December, and expectations for future activity picked up. Price increases for both raw materials and finished products picked up slightly this month with further increases expected. However, price growth eased year-over-year. Increases in raw materials prices continue to outpace finished ...


Philadelphia Fed Mfg Outlook Activity continued to decline overall in December 2023
Posted: December 21, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Manufacturing activity in the region continued to decline overall, according to the firms responding to the December Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's indicators for general activity and shipments remained negative. Furthermore, the index for new orders declined sharply and turned negative. The employment index dipped ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions declined in December 2023
Posted: December 15, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Business activity declined in New York State, according to firms responding to the December 2023 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell twenty-four points to -14.5, continuing to oscillate around -8.6—the average observed over the past year. New orders fell for a third consecutive month, ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity slowed to -5 in November 2023
Posted: November 28, 2023 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity slowed in November, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index decreased from 3 in October to −5 in November. Of its three component indexes, shipments fell from 9 to −8, new orders edged down from −4 to −5, and employment decreased from ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity contracted in November 2023
Posted: November 27, 2023 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity contracted in November after two months of expansion, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell 12 points to -7.2.

Other measures of manufacturing activity also indicated contraction this month. The new orders index has been negative for 18 months and dropped from -8.8 to -20.5 in November. The capacity utilization index returned to negative territory, falling from 5.4 to -10.1, while ...


Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Survey suggest activity indicated overall improvement in November 2023
Posted: November 21, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Firms responding to the November Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey indicated overall improvement in business activity. The indexes for general activity at the firm level and sales/revenues returned to positive territory for the first time since July. The index for new orders rose but remained negative. The firms continued to report ...


Chicago Fed National Activity Index Suggests economic growth declined in October 2023
Posted: November 21, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to –0.49 in October from –0.02 in September. All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from September, and all four categories made negative contributions in October. The index’s three-month moving ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Declined Again in November 2023
Posted: November 16, 2023 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity declined again in November, and expectations for future activity ticked down slightly, while price indexes were mixed with a slight increase in raw materials prices but a decline in finished goods prices (Chart 1, Tables 1 & 2). Going forward, firms expect both finished goods and raw materials prices ...


Philadelphia Fed Mfg Outlook Activity continued to decline overall in November 2023
Posted: November 16, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Manufacturing activity in the region continued to decline overall, according to the firms responding to the November Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's indicator for general activity rose but remained negative. The indicator for shipments turned negative, while the indicator for new orders was positive but low. The ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions grew modestly in November 2023
Posted: November 15, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Business activity grew modestly in New York State, according to firms responding to the November 2023 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index climbed fourteen points to 9.1. New orders continued to fall slightly, while shipments picked up. Unfilled orders declined significantly, and delivery ...


Philadelphia Fed Survey of Forecasters Predict Upgrade Growth and Job Gains in 2023 and 2024
Posted: November 13, 2023 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The outlook for the U.S. economy looks somewhat better now than it did three months ago, according to 34 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters predict the economy will expand at an annual rate of 1.3 percent this quarter, up slightly from the prediction of 1.2 percent in the last survey. On ...


FOMC target funds rate maintained at 5.25% - 5.50%
Posted: November 1, 2023 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity expanded at a strong pace in the third quarter. Job gains have moderated since earlier in the year but remain strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated.

The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. Tighter financial and credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. The extent of these effects remains uncertain. The Committee remains highly attentive to ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity continued in October 2023
Posted: October 30, 2023 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Growth in Texas factory activity continued in October, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, posted a second positive reading after four months in negative territory. It edged down to 5.2, a reading that signals a modest pace ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Continued to Decline in October 2023
Posted: October 26, 2023 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity continued to decline in October, and expectations for future activity stayed mostly flat. District firms’ finished product prices stayed steady this month, and the raw materials prices declined slightly for the first time since 2020. Going forward, firms expect both finished product and raw materials prices ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity edged down to 3 in October 2023
Posted: October 24, 2023 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity changed little in October, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index edged down from 5 in September to 3 in October. Of its three component indexes, shipments edged up from 7 to 9, new orders fell from 3 to −4, and employment remained at ...


Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Survey suggest activity remained weak overall in October 2023
Posted: October 24, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Nonmanufacturing activity in the region remained weak overall, according to the firms responding to the October Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's current indicators for general activity at the firm level and for sales/revenues edged up but remained negative. Meanwhile, the index for new orders fell further into ...


Chicago Fed National Activity Index Suggests economic growth near historical trend in September 2023
Posted: October 23, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to +0.02 in September from –0.22 in August. All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index increased from August, and two categories made positive contributions in September. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved up to a neutral value in ...


Philadelphia Fed Mfg Outlook Activity was mixed in October 2023
Posted: October 19, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Manufacturing activity in the region was mixed this month, according to the firms responding to the October Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's indicator for general activity remained negative, while the indicators for new orders and shipments were positive but low. The employment index turned positive, and both price ...


Beige Book: Economic Activity indicated little to no change since the September report
Posted: October 18, 2023 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Overall Economic Activity
Most Districts indicated little to no change in economic activity since the September report. Consumer spending was mixed, especially among general retailers and auto dealers, due to differences in prices and product offerings. Tourism activity continued to improve, although some Districts reported slight slowing ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions edged lower in October 2023
Posted: October 16, 2023 at 08:39 AM (Monday)

Business activity edged lower in New York State, according to firms responding to the October 2023 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell seven points to -4.6. New orders fell slightly, while shipments were little changed. Unfilled orders declined, and delivery times shortened. Inventories ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Declined Somewhat in September 2023
Posted: September 28, 2023 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity declined somewhat in September, and expectations for future activity stayed mostly flat. District firms’ finished product prices picked up slightly this month even as growth in raw materials prices slowed slightly. However, firms expect raw materials price increases to outpace finished product prices in ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity improved to 5 in September 2023
Posted: September 26, 2023 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity improved in September, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index increased from −7 in August to 5 in September. Each of its three component indexes — shipments, new orders, and employment — increased. The shipments index improved from −5 ...


Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Survey suggest activity declined overall in September 2023
Posted: September 26, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Nonmanufacturing activity in the region declined overall this month, according to the firms responding to the September Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The indexes for general activity at the firm level, new orders, and sales/revenues all remained negative. The firms continued to report overall increases in full-time employment ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity resumed in September 2023
Posted: September 25, 2023 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Growth in Texas factory activity resumed in September, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rebounded nearly 20 points to 7.9—its highest reading of ...


Chicago Fed National Activity Index Suggests slower economic growth in August 2023
Posted: September 25, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to –0.16 in August from +0.07 in July. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from July, and all four categories made negative contributions in August. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, ticked up to –0.14 in August from –0.15 ...


Philadelphia Fed Mfg Outlook Activity declined overall in September 2023
Posted: September 21, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Manufacturing activity in the region declined overall, according to the firms responding to the September Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments returned to negative territory after turning positive in August. On balance, the firms continued to report a decline in ...


FOMC target funds rate maintained at 5.25% - 5.50%
Posted: September 20, 2023 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have slowed in recent months but remain strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated.

The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. Tighter credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. The extent of these effects remains uncertain. The Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks. ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions was little changed in September 2023
Posted: September 15, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Business activity was little changed in New York State, according to firms responding to the September 2023 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index rose twenty-one points to 1.9. New orders and shipments increased. Delivery times remained steady, and inventories continued to contract. Labor ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity contracted again in August 2023
Posted: August 28, 2023 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity contracted again in August, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell six points to -11.2—its lowest level since May 2020.

Other measures of manufacturing activity also indicated contraction in August. The new orders index has been in negative territory for more than a year and posted a reading of -15.8, up slightly from July. The capacity utilization index edged down to -3.7, and the shipments ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity was unchanged in August 2023
Posted: August 24, 2023 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity was unchanged in August, and expectations for future activity rose slightly. District firms’ finished product prices continued to decline on a monthly basis even as raw materials prices increased. Firms continue to expect input and output price increases in the next ...



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