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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - FOMC


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions declined modestly in June 2024
Posted: June 17, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Business activity declined modestly in New York State, according to firms responding to the June 2024 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index moved up ten points but remained below zero at -6.0. New orders held steady, while shipments inched higher. Delivery times shortened somewhat, and ...


FOMC target funds rate maintained at 5.25% - 5.50%
Posted: June 12, 2024 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated. In recent months, there has been modest further progress toward the Committee's 2 percent ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity improved to 0 in May 2024
Posted: May 29, 2024 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity improved but remained sluggish in May, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index increased from −7 in April to 0 in May. Of its three component indexes, shipments increased from −10 to 13, new orders increased from −9 to −6, and ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity edged down in May 2024
Posted: May 28, 2024 at 10:30 AM (Tuesday)

Texas factory activity edged down in May, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, slipped from 4.8 to -2.8. The negative reading signals a slight decline in output ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity essentially unchanged in May 2024
Posted: May 23, 2024 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity was essentially unchanged in May, and expectations for future activity grew modestly. Price growth increased on a month-over-month basis but cooled on a year-over-year basis, and raw materials prices continue to grow at a faster pace than finished ...


Chicago Fed National Activity Index suggests economic growth decreased in April 2024
Posted: May 23, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to –0.23 in April from –0.04 in March. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from March, and all four categories made negative contributions in April. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to +0.01 in April from ...


Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Survey suggest activity declined in May 2024
Posted: May 23, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Firms responding to the May Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey indicated less widespread business activity than reported last month. The index for general activity at the firm level declined but remained positive. The index for sales/revenues increased, but the index for new orders turned negative. The firms continued to report an ...


Philadelphia Fed Mfg Outlook Activity weakened in May 2024
Posted: May 16, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Manufacturing activity in the region weakened overall, according to the firms responding to the May Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's indicators for current general activity, new orders, and shipments all declined, with the latter two turning negative. The employment index suggests declines in employment overall. Both ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions continued to decline in May 2024
Posted: May 15, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Business activity continued to decline in New York State, according to firms responding to the May 2024 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index was little changed at -15.6. New orders declined significantly, while shipments held steady. Unfilled orders continued to decline. Delivery times shortened, ...


Philadelphia Fed Survey of Forecasters Predict Higher Near-Term Growth and Job Gains
Posted: May 10, 2024 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Forecasters Predict Higher Near-Term Growth and Job Gains
The near-term outlook for the U.S. economy looks better now than it did three months ago, according to 34 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters predict the economy will expand at an annual rate of 2.1 percent this quarter and 2.0 percent ...


FOMC target funds rate maintained at 5.25% - 5.50%
Posted: May 1, 2024 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated. In recent months, there has been a lack of further progress toward the Committee's 2 percent ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity strengthened slightly in April 2024
Posted: April 29, 2024 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Texas factory output strengthened slightly in April, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose from -4.1 to 4.8.

Other measures of manufacturing activity were mixed this month. The new orders index remained negative, though it pushed up seven points to -5.3. The capacity utilization and shipments indexes turned positive this month, coming in at 4.2 and 5.0, respectively. ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Fell Again in April 2024
Posted: April 25, 2024 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

The month-over-month composite index was -8 in April, down from -7 in March and -4 in February. The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. Activity declined somewhat for both durable and nondurable goods, with food, metals, electrical equipment, ...


Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Survey suggest activity declined in April 2024
Posted: April 25, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Nonmanufacturing activity in the region expanded overall this month, according to the firms responding to the April Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The indexes for general activity at the firm level, new orders, and sales/revenues were all positive. The full- and part-time employment indexes suggest overall increases in employment. ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity remained slow at −7 in April 2024
Posted: April 23, 2024 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity remained slow in April, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index increased from −11 in March to −7 in April. Of its three component indexes, shipments increased from −14 to −10, new orders increased from −17 to −9, and employment fell ...


Chicago Fed National Activity Index suggests economic growth increased in March 2024
Posted: April 22, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to +0.15 in March from +0.09 in February. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index increased from February, and two categories made positive contributions in March. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to –0.19 in March from –0.28 ...


Philadelphia Fed Mfg Outlook Activity expanded in April 2024
Posted: April 18, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Manufacturing activity in the region continued to expand this month, according to the firms responding to the April Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments all rose. However, the employment index remained negative. Both price indexes continue to suggest overall price ...


Beige Book: Economic Activity expanded slightly, on balance, since late February
Posted: April 17, 2024 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Overall Economic Activity
Overall economic activity expanded slightly, on balance, since late February. Ten out of twelve Districts experienced either slight or modest economic growth—up from eight in the previous report, while the other two reported no changes in activity. Consumer spending barely increased overall, but reports were quite ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions continued to decline in April 2024
Posted: April 15, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Business activity continued to decline in New York State, according to firms responding to the April 2024 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index rose seven points but remained below zero at -14.3. New orders and shipments both declined significantly, and unfilled orders continued to shrink. Delivery ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity declined further in March 2024
Posted: March 28, 2024 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity declined further in March, and expectations for future activity were again steady. Prices continued to grow at a similar rate to previous months, with a continued spread between raw materials and finished goods growth.

The month-over-month composite index was -7 in March, down from -4 in February and up from -9 in January (Tables 1 & 2). The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. Activity for ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity slowed to −11 in March 2024
Posted: March 26, 2024 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity slowed in March, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index decreased from −5 in February to −11 in March. Of its three component indexes, shipments remained solidly negative at −14, new orders fell from −5 to −17, and employment fell from ...


Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Survey suggest activity declined in March 2024
Posted: March 26, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Nonmanufacturing activity in the region declined this month, according to the firms responding to the March Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The index for general activity at the firm level turned negative. The new orders index remained negative, while the sales/revenues index fell to a near-zero reading. The full-time employment ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity weakened in March 2024
Posted: March 25, 2024 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity weakened in March after stabilizing in February, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell five points to -4.1, a reading that suggests a slight decline in output month ...


Chicago Fed National Activity Index suggests economic growth increased in February 2024
Posted: March 25, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to +0.05 in February from –0.54 in January. All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index increased from January, and three categories made positive contributions in February. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to –0.18 in February from ...


Philadelphia Fed Mfg Outlook Activity expanded overall in March 2024
Posted: March 21, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Manufacturing activity in the region continued to expand overall, according to the firms responding to the March Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's indicator for general activity edged lower but remained positive, while the index for shipments ticked up and the index for new orders turned positive. The employment index ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions continued to decline in March 2024
Posted: March 15, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Business activity continued to decline in New York State, according to firms responding to the March 2024 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell nineteen points to -20.9. Demand softened as new orders declined significantly, and shipments were lower. Unfilled orders continued to shrink, and ...


Beige Book: Economic Activity increased slightly since early January
Posted: March 6, 2024 at 03:00 PM (Wednesday)

Economic activity increased slightly, on balance, since early January, with eight Districts reporting slight to modest growth in activity, three others reporting no change, and one District noting a slight softening. Consumer spending, particularly on retail goods, inched down in recent weeks. Several reports cited heightened price sensitivity ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity declined slightly in February 2024
Posted: February 29, 2024 at 02:16 PM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity declined slightly in February, and expectations for future activity moderated but remained slightly positive. Price growth for raw materials slowed somewhat this month and finished product prices also eased, although future increases are expected. On a year-over-year basis, both price indexes increased ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity was flat to −5 in February 2024
Posted: February 27, 2024 at 10:30 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity was flat in February, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index increased from −15 in January to −5 in February. Of its three component indexes, shipments remained solidly negative at −15, new orders increased from −16 to −5, and ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity stabilized in February 2024
Posted: February 26, 2024 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity stabilized in February after contracting in January, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rebounded 16 points to 1.0. The near-zero reading suggests flat output month ...


Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Survey suggest activity was mostly steady in February 2024
Posted: February 21, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Firms responding to the February Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey indicated mostly steady business activity. The index for general activity at the firm level declined to a near-zero reading. The index for sales/revenues was little changed, while the index for new orders turned negative. On balance, the firms continued to report an ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions edged slightly lower in February 2024
Posted: February 15, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Business activity edged slightly lower in New York State, according to firms responding to the February 2024 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index rose forty-one points but remained negative at -2.4. New orders declined modestly, while shipments edged higher. Unfilled orders continued to shrink, ...


Philadelphia Fed Mfg Outlook Activity expanded overall in February 2024
Posted: February 15, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Manufacturing activity in the region expanded overall, according to the firms responding to the February Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's indicators for current general activity and shipments rose and turned positive. The indicator for new orders also rose but remained negative. The employment index suggests declines ...


FOMC target funds rate maintained at 5.25% - 5.50%
Posted: January 31, 2024 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have moderated since early last year but remain strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are moving into better balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity contracted in January 2024
Posted: January 29, 2024 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity contracted in January after stabilizing in December, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, dropped 17 points to -15.4—its lowest reading ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity declined moderately in January 2024
Posted: January 25, 2024 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity declined moderately, and expectations for future activity expanded further. Prices paid for raw materials in January increased sharply relative to last month and this time last year. Heading forward, raw materials prices are expected to continue increasing at a faster pace than finished ...


Chicago Fed National Activity Index Index suggests economic growth decreased in December 2023
Posted: January 25, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to –0.15 in December from +0.01 in November. All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from November, and three categories made negative contributions in December. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved down to –0.28 in December ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity remained sluggish to -15 in January 2024
Posted: January 23, 2024 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity remained sluggish in January, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index decreased from −11 in December to −15 in January. Of its three component indexes, shipments edged up from −17 to −15, new orders edged down from −14 to −16, ...


Philadelphia Fed Mfg Outlook Activity continued to decline overall in January 2024
Posted: January 18, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Manufacturing activity in the region continued to decline overall, according to the firms responding to the January Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments rose but remained negative. The employment index was little changed and continues to suggest mostly steady levels ...


Beige Book: Economic Activity reported little or no change
Posted: January 17, 2024 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Overall Economic Activity
A majority of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts reported little or no change in economic activity since the prior Beige Book period. Of the four Districts that differed, three reported modest growth and one reported a moderate decline. Consumers delivered some seasonal relief over the holidays by meeting ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions dropped sharply in January 2024
Posted: January 16, 2024 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Business activity dropped sharply in New York State, according to firms responding to the January 2024 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell twenty-nine points to -43.7, its lowest reading since May 2020. New orders and shipments also posted sharp declines. Unfilled orders continued to ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity slowed to -11 in December 2023
Posted: December 27, 2023 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity slowed in December, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index decreased from −5 in November to −11 in December. Of its three component indexes, shipments fell from −8 to −17, new orders decreased from −5 to −14, and employment edged ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity stabilized in December 2023
Posted: December 26, 2023 at 10:30 AM (Tuesday)

Texas factory activity stabilized in December after contracting in November, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, pushed up nine points to 1.4, with the near-zero reading indicating little change in manufacturing output ...


Chicago Fed National Activity Index Suggests economic growth increased in November 2023
Posted: December 26, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.03 in November from –0.66 in October. All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index increased from October, and two categories made positive contributions in November. The index’s three-month moving ...


Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Survey suggest activity indicated overall improvement in November 2023
Posted: December 26, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Nonmanufacturing activity in the region expanded this month, according to the firms responding to the December Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The indexes for general activity at the firm level and sales/revenues remained positive, while the new orders index improved but remained negative. The firms continued to report overall ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity was flat in December 2023
Posted: December 21, 2023 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity was flat in December, and expectations for future activity picked up. Price increases for both raw materials and finished products picked up slightly this month with further increases expected. However, price growth eased year-over-year. Increases in raw materials prices continue to outpace finished ...


Philadelphia Fed Mfg Outlook Activity continued to decline overall in December 2023
Posted: December 21, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Manufacturing activity in the region continued to decline overall, according to the firms responding to the December Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's indicators for general activity and shipments remained negative. Furthermore, the index for new orders declined sharply and turned negative. The employment index dipped ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions declined in December 2023
Posted: December 15, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Business activity declined in New York State, according to firms responding to the December 2023 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell twenty-four points to -14.5, continuing to oscillate around -8.6—the average observed over the past year. New orders fell for a third consecutive month, ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity slowed to -5 in November 2023
Posted: November 28, 2023 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity slowed in November, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index decreased from 3 in October to −5 in November. Of its three component indexes, shipments fell from 9 to −8, new orders edged down from −4 to −5, and employment decreased from ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity contracted in November 2023
Posted: November 27, 2023 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity contracted in November after two months of expansion, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell 12 points to -7.2.

Other measures of manufacturing activity also indicated contraction this month. The new orders index has been negative for 18 months and dropped from -8.8 to -20.5 in November. The capacity utilization index returned to negative territory, falling from 5.4 to -10.1, while ...



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