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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 200901



Chicago PMI Deteriorated further
Posted: January 30, 2009 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The Chicago Purchasing Managers reported the CHICAGO BUSINESS BAROMETER indicated continued deterioration of the USA economy in January…at a somewhat faster rate:

BUSINESS ACTIVITY:
PRICES PAID index decline continued, but at a moderated rate;
PRODUCTION and NEW ORDERS indexes fell to lowest levels in more than 28 years;
EMPLOYMENT continued year-long decline;
ORDER BACKLOGS index continued near 28 year low;
BUYING POLICY: lead-times ...


New York Purchasing Managers business activity declined
Posted: January 30, 2009 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

New York City business activity declined for a 12th straight month, according to the survey taken by the National Association of Purchasing Management- New York (NAPM-NY). The Current Business Conditions index stood at 38.4 in January.

Seasonally-adjusted series have been recalculated using updated seasonal factors. This affects Current Business Conditions, the Six-Month Outlook and the NY-BCI from January 2004 to December 2008. Please contact the NAPM-NY Business Survey Chair for the new historical data. ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence hovers near low
Posted: January 30, 2009 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer confidence continued to hover near its half century low, showing no signs of significant change during the past six months. “Nearly all consumers anticipate the deepest and longest recession in the post-WWII era, but few consumers now expect the economy to sink into a 1930's style depression,” according to Richard Curtin, the Director ...


4Q2008 GDP advance estimate -3.8%
Posted: January 30, 2009 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- decreased at an annual rate of 3.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008, (that is, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter), according to advance estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the ...


Employment Cost Index up 0.5% in 4Q2008
Posted: January 30, 2009 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Total compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.5 percent from September to December 2008, seasonally adjusted, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. This follows three consecutive quarterly increases of 0.7 percent. In the December quarter, wages and salaries rose 0.5 percent and benefits ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing activity declined further
Posted: January 29, 2009 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity declined further in January, and firms’ expectations for future activity continued to be pessimistic. Price indexes in the survey also fell for the third straight month.

The net percentage of firms reporting month-over-month increases in production in January was -25, down from -18 in December, but up slightly from -30 in November. Production declined sharply at durable-goods producing plants, but was less negative at non-durable-goods ...


DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer down -1.2%
Posted: January 29, 2009 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

For the week ending January 17, 2009, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer fell by -1.2 percent as the timing of weekly seasonal adjustment continued the wild swings in motor vehicle production. Consumer activity was strong in the latest week with inflation-adjusted chain store sales rising +1.2 percent, mortgage application activity (driven ...


New Home Sales in December at annual rate of 331,000
Posted: January 29, 2009 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Sales of new one-family houses in December 2008 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 331,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 14.7 percent (±13.9%)* below the revised November of 388,000 and is 44.8 percent (±10.8%) below the December ...


Weekly initial unemployment claims up 3,000 to 588,000
Posted: January 29, 2009 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending Jan. 24, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 588,000, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 585,000. The 4-week moving average was 542,500, an increase of 24,250 from the previous week's revised average of ...


New orders for durable goods decreased 2.6%
Posted: January 29, 2009 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

New orders for manufactured durable goods in December decreased $4.7 billion or 2.6 percent to $176.8 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This was the fifth consecutive monthly decrease and followed a 3.7 percent November decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 3.6 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased ...


FOMC keeps target funds rate of 0 - 1/4%
Posted: January 28, 2009 at 02:16 PM (Wednesday)

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. The Committee continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for some time.

Information received since the Committee met in December suggests that the economy has weakened further. Industrial production, housing starts, and employment have continued to decline steeply, as consumers and businesses have cut back spending. Furthermore, global demand ...


December Mass Layoffs total 2,275 actions, 226,117 workers
Posted: January 28, 2009 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

In December, employers took 2,275 mass layoff actions, seasonally adjusted, as measured by new filings for unemployment insurance benefits during the month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Each action involved at least 50 persons from a single employer; the number of workers involved totaled ...


Mortgage Applications Fall In Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: January 28, 2009 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 23, 2009. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, was 732.1, a decrease of 38.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from 1195.3 one week earlier. This week’s results included an ...


Richmond Fed's latest survey improved to -49
Posted: January 27, 2009 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

In January, the seasonally adjusted manufacturing index — our broadest measure of manufacturing activity — remained negative, although it improved to -49 from December's reading of -55. Among the index's components, shipments was virtually unchanged at -54, new orders picked up sixteen points to finish at -50, and the jobs index held steady ...


Consumer Confidence inched lower in January
Posted: January 27, 2009 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index™, which had decreased in December, inched lower in January and continues to be at a historic low. The Index now stands at 37.7 (1985=100), down from 38.6 in December. The Present Situation Index declined slightly to 29.9 from 30.2 last month. The Expectations Index decreased moderately to 43.0 ...


S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices declines 19.1%
Posted: January 27, 2009 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

Data through November 2008, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, shows continued broad based declines in the prices of existing single family homes across the United States, with 11 of the 20 metro areas showing record rates of annual decline, and 14 ...


ICSC Chain Store Sales Down 1.8% In Jan 24 Wk
Posted: January 27, 2009 at 07:45 AM (Tuesday)

The International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs Retail Chain Store Sales Index declined 1.8% in the week to January 24 from its level a week before, on a seasonally-adjusted, comparable store basis. On a year-on-year basis, retailers saw sales decline by 2.4% in the latest week - the seventh consecutive ...


Texas Manufacturing Activity Continues to Contract
Posted: January 26, 2009 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Texas manufacturing activity remained weak in January, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. Current activity indexes for production, capacity utilization, growth rate of orders, delivery time, volume of new orders and shipments remained at near-record ...


Existing-Home Sales Show Strong Gain In December
Posted: January 26, 2009 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

Existing-home sales rose unexpectedly while inventory declined, led by a surge of sales in the West, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – jumped 6.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of 4.74 million units in December from a downwardly revised pace of 4.45 million units in November, but are 3.5 percent below the ...


U.S. leading economic index increased 0.3%
Posted: January 26, 2009 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The U.S. LEI increased 0.3 percent, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) decreased 0.5 percent and The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index (LAG) decreased 0.4 percent in December.

The LEI rose modestly in December, mainly due to the continued and very large positive contribution from real money supply. The yield spread also contributed positively to the index, helping offset the continued declines in building permits, the average workweek, supplier ...


Chicago Fed National Activity Index decreased further
Posted: January 26, 2009 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index was –3.26 in December, down from –2.78 in November. All four broad categories of indicators made negative contributions to the index in December.

The three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased slightly to –2.40 in December from –2.56 in the previous month. With recent revisions, the three-month moving average reached its lowest value since 1980 in November. December’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national ...


DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer up 1.9%
Posted: January 22, 2009 at 10:01 AM (Thursday)

For the week ending January 10, 2009, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer jumped up by +1.9 percent following two consecutive weeks of dramatic decline. The seasonally adjusted timing of annual auto plant shutdowns is causing large swings in auto production data as hefty double-digit increases in the latest week were preceded by hefty ...


Weekly initial unemployment claims up 62,000 to 589,000
Posted: January 22, 2009 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending Jan. 17, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 589,000, an increase of 62,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 527,000. The 4-week moving average was 519,250, unchanged from the previous week's revised average of ...


December Housing starts down 15.5%, Permits down 10.7%
Posted: January 22, 2009 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

BUILDING PERMITS
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 549,000. This is 10.7 percent (±1.3%) below the revised November rate of 615,000 and is 50.6 percent (±1.6%) below the revised December 2007 estimate of 1,111,000. Single-family authorizations in December were at ...


Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: January 22, 2009 at 07:00 AM (Thursday)

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 16, 2009. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, was 1195.3, a decrease of 9.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from 1324.8 one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index ...


Builder Confidence Edges Down Further In January
Posted: January 21, 2009 at 01:00 PM (Wednesday)

Concerns about the faltering economy and reluctant home buyers pushed builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes down further in January, according to the latest National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), released today. The HMI edged down a single point to a new record low of 8 ...


ICSC Chain Store Sales up 1.1% In Jan 17 Wk
Posted: January 21, 2009 at 07:47 AM (Wednesday)

The International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs Retail Chain Store Sales Index increased 1.1% in the week to January 17 from its level a week before, on a seasonally-adjusted, comparable store basis. On a year-on-year basis, retailers saw sales decline by 1.8% in the latest ...


Industrial production drops 2.0%
Capacity Utilization down to 73.6%

Posted: January 16, 2009 at 09:15 AM (Friday)

Industrial production fell 2.0 percent in December, and declines were again widespread. Output was revised up in October, but it was revised down in November; for the fourth quarter as a whole, total industrial production decreased 11.5 percent at an annual rate. At 103.6 percent of its 2002 average, output in December was 7.8 percent below ...


Consumer Price Index decreased 1.0% in December
Posted: January 16, 2009 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased 1.0 percent in December, before seasonal adjustment, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The December level of 210.228 (1982-84=100) was 0.1 percent higher than in ...


DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer fell -1.4%
Posted: January 15, 2009 at 10:02 AM (Thursday)

For the week ending January 3, 2009, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer fell -1.4 percent on top of a slightly downward revised decline of -1.7 percent in the prior week. Following the Fed’s announcement that it would begin buying long-term Treasuries in January, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage dropped to 5.1 percent in the first week of ...


Philadelphia Fed January Outlook continued to be depressed
Posted: January 15, 2009 at 10:01 AM (Thursday)

Conditions in the region's manufacturing sector continued to be depressed this month, according to firms polled for the January Business Outlook Survey. All of the survey's broad indicators for current activity remained negative, although some rose from the extremely low levels they had reached during the past few months. Employment ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey continued to deteriorate
Posted: January 15, 2009 at 08:31 AM (Thursday)

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers continued to deteriorate in January. The general business conditions index rose several points but, at -22.2, remained near recent record lows. The new orders, shipments, and unfilled orders indexes also remained near their recent record lows. The ...


Weekly initial unemployment claims up 54,000 to 524,000
Posted: January 15, 2009 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending Jan. 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 524,000, an increase of 54,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 470,000. The 4-week moving average was 518,500, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week's revised average of ...


Producer Price Index fell 1.9 percent in December
Posted: January 15, 2009 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods fell 1.9 percent in December, seasonally adjusted, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. This decrease followed a 2.2-percent decline in November and a 2.8-percent drop in October. At the earlier stages of processing, prices received by producers of ...


Beige Book: Economic activity continue to weaken
Posted: January 14, 2009 at 02:01 PM (Wednesday)

Overall economic activity continued to weaken across almost all of the Federal Reserve Districts since the previous reporting period. Most Districts noted reduced or low activity across a wide range of industries, although a few Districts noted some exceptions in ...


Business Inventories down 0.7% in November
Posted: January 14, 2009 at 10:01 AM (Wednesday)

Sales. The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that the combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for November, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,057.0 billion, down 5.1 percent (±0.2%) from October 2008 and down 8.9 percent (±0.5%) from November ...


U.S. Import Price Index declined 4.2% in December
Posted: January 14, 2009 at 08:31 AM (Wednesday)

The U.S. Import Price Index declined 4.2 percent in December, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today, following decreases in each of the previous four months. Export prices also fell for the fifth consecutive month, declining 2.3 percent in December after a 3.4 percent drop the ...


U.S. Retail Sales for November decreased 2.7%
Posted: January 14, 2009 at 08:31 AM (Wednesday)

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for December, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $343.2 billion, a decrease of 2.7 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month and 9.8 percent (±0.7%) below December 2007. ...


Record Low Mortgage Rates Boost Refinance Activity
Posted: January 14, 2009 at 07:02 AM (Wednesday)

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 9, 2009. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, was 1324.8, an increase of 15.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from 1143.8 one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the ...


Goods and Services Deficit Decreases in November 2008
Posted: January 13, 2009 at 08:31 AM (Tuesday)

The Nation's international deficit in goods and services decreased to $40.4 billion in November from $56.7 billion (revised) in October, as imports decreased more than exports.

Goods and Services
Exports decreased to $142.8 billion in November from $151.5 billion in October. Goods were $97.2 billion in November, down from $104.8 billion in October, and services were $45.6 billion in November, down from $46.7 billion in October. ...


ICSC Chain Store Sales Dn 2.3% In Jan 10 Wk
Posted: January 13, 2009 at 07:45 AM (Tuesday)

The International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs Retail Chain Store Sales Index decreased 2.3% in the week to January 10 from its level a week before, on a seasonally-adjusted, comparable store basis. On a year-on-year basis, retailers saw sales decline by 2.2% in the latest week, as consumers complete holiday gift purchases at ...


Wholesale Inventories down 1.1% in November
Posted: January 9, 2009 at 10:01 AM (Friday)

Sales. The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that November 2008 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $349.2 billion, down 7.1 percent (+/-0.4%) from the revised October level and were down 7.6 ...


December Employment declined by 524,000,
Unemployment rate jumps to 7.2%

Posted: January 9, 2009 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Nonfarm payroll employment declined sharply in December, and the unemployment rate rose from 6.8 to 7.2 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Payroll employment fell by 524,000 over the month and by 1.9 million over the last 4 months of 2008. In December, job losses were large and widespread ...


Consumer credit increased at an annual rate of 3.75%
Posted: January 8, 2009 at 03:01 PM (Thursday)

Consumer credit decreased at an annual rate of 3-3/4 percent in November 2008. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 3-1/2 percent, and nonrevolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 4 percent.

...


DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer down -1.6%
Posted: January 8, 2009 at 10:01 AM (Thursday)

For the week ending December 27, 2008, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer sank -1.6 percent, following a downward revised increase of +1.3 percent in the prior week. A terrible winter storm in which the nation’s snowfall was 143 percent above normal (according to Weather Trends International) descended upon the Northeast in the final ...


Weekly initial unemployment claims down 24,000 to 467,000
Posted: January 8, 2009 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending Jan. 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 467,000, a decrease of 24,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 491,000. The 4-week moving average was 525,750, a decrease of 27,000 from the previous week's revised average of ...


ADP National Employment Report decreased 693,000
Posted: January 7, 2009 at 08:15 AM (Wednesday)

Nonfarm private employment decreased 693,000 from November to December 2008 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report. This month’s ADP Report incorporates methodological improvements intended to improve the correspondence between the nonfarm private employment estimates shown in the ADP Report and ...


Mortgage Applications Decrease In Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: January 7, 2009 at 07:01 AM (Wednesday)

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 2, 2009. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, was 1143.8, a decrease of 8.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from 1245.7 one week earlier. This week’s results included an ...


Economic Slump Weakens Pending Home Sales
Posted: January 6, 2009 at 10:01 AM (Tuesday)

After holding fairly stable for a year, pending home sales declined in the face of job losses and an eroding economy, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in November, fell 4.0 percent to 82.3 from a downwardly revised reading of 85.7 in October, and is 5.3 percent below November 2007 when it was 86.9. The current index is the lowest since the ...


ISM Non-Manufacturing Index moves higher to 40.6%
Posted: January 6, 2009 at 10:01 AM (Tuesday)

The NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index) registered 40.6 percent in December, 3.3 percentage points higher than the 37.3 percent registered in November, indicating contraction in the non-manufacturing sector for the third consecutive month, but at a slightly slower rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased 6.6 percentage points ...



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