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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 201101



Texas Manufacturing Activity Held Steady
Posted: January 31, 2011 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity held steady in January, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, came in at zero, suggesting output was unchanged from December. Other measures of current activity signaled continued growth in ...


Chicago Purchasing Managers Index Gained
Posted: January 31, 2011 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Chicago Purchasing Managers reported the CHICAGO BUSINESS BAROMETER improved to its highest level since July 1988, indicating expansion for a sixteenth consecutive month.

BUSINESS ACTIVITY:
PRICES PAID indicated increased inflation, increasing to the highest level since July 2008;
EMPLOYMENT strengthened to a height not seen since May 1984;
NEW ORDERS increased to the highest point since December 1983;
PRODUCTION improved with NEW ORDERS ...


Personal Income increased 0.4%, Spending up 0.7%
Posted: January 31, 2011 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Personal income increased $54.5 billion, or 0.4 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $47.3 billion, or 0.4 percent, in December, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $69.5 billion, or 0.7 percent. In November, personal income increased $44.9 billion, or 0.4 percent, ...


New York Purchasing Managers Business Activity expanded faster
Posted: January 31, 2011 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

New York City business activity expanded at the fastest pace in eight months, according to the survey taken by the Institute for Supply Management-New York (ISM-NY). The Current Business Conditions index rose to 71.2 in January from a revised 63.8 in December.

Future optimism surged to a 12-month high and stood at the third highest level in the survey’s history, indicating very widespread gains. The Six-Month Outlook index increased to 90.7 in January from a revised 75.1 in December. ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence was unchanged
Posted: January 28, 2011 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer confidence was largely unchanged in January from December and the January 2010 level. Importantly, confidence remained at its highest level in nearly three years. The recently extended tax cuts as well as the 2% reduction in wage taxes improved the outlook for the economy, and more importantly, for employment prospects. ...


4Q2010 GDP advance estimate up 3.2%
Posted: January 28, 2011 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 3.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2010, (that is, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In ...


Employment Cost Index up 0.4% in 4Q2010
Posted: January 28, 2011 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.4 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending December 2010, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Both wages and salaries (which make up about 70 percent of compensation costs) and benefits (which make up the remaining 30 percent of compensation) increased ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing activity moderated somewhat
Posted: January 27, 2011 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Growth in Tenth District manufacturing activity moderated somewhat in January, but activity was stronger than a year ago and optimism remained fairly high. Price indexes in the survey were still elevated, particularly for raw materials.

The month-over-month composite index was 7 in January, down from 14 in December and 11 in November. The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. Growth in activity eased at both ...


Pending Home Sales rose 2.0%
Posted: January 27, 2011 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Pending home sales improved further in December, marking the fifth gain in the past six months, according to the National Association of Realtors®

The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator, increased 2.0 percent to 93.7 based on contracts signed in December from a downwardly revised 91.9 in November. The index is 4.2 percent below the 97.8 mark in December 2009. The data reflects contracts and not ...


DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer declined by 0.2%
Posted: January 27, 2011 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

For the week ending January 15, 2011, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer declined by another -0.2 percent. After racing along at the end of the year, the barometer has fallen in the first three weeks of 2011, primarily concentrated among a few of the production components such as lumber and coal. Admittedly, however, home purchasing activity ...


December Mass Layoffs total 1,483 actions, 137,992 workers
Posted: January 27, 2011 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Employers took 1,483 mass layoff actions in December involving 137,992 workers, seasonally adjusted, as measured by new filings for unemployment insurance benefits during the month, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Each mass layoff involved at least 50 persons from a single employer. The number of mass layoff events in ...


New Orders for Durable Goods Decreased 2.5%, ex-trans up 0.5%
Posted: January 27, 2011 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

New orders for manufactured durable goods in December decreased $5.0 billion or 2.5 percent to $191.0 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down four of the last five months, followed a 0.1 percent November decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.5 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased ...


Weekly initial unemployment claims increase 51,000 to 454,000
Posted: January 27, 2011 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending Jan. 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 454,000, an increase of 51,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 403,000. The 4-week moving average was 428,750, an increase of 15,750 from the previous week's revised average of ...


Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index increased 0.3%
Posted: January 27, 2011 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index (CFMMI) increased 0.3% in December, to a seasonally adjusted level of 81.5 (2007 = 100). Revised data show the index increased 0.3% in November to 81.2. The Federal Reserve Board’s industrial production index for manufacturing (IPMFG) rose 0.4% in December. Regional output in December rose 8.3% from ...


Chicago Fed National Activity Index improved in December
Posted: January 27, 2011 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Led by gains in employment- and production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index increased to +0.03 in December from –0.40 in November. December marked the first time in five months that the index had a positive reading. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index made positive contributions ...


FOMC target funds maintained rate at 0 - 1/4%
Posted: January 26, 2011 at 02:15 PM (Wednesday)

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December confirms that the economic recovery is continuing, though at a rate that has been insufficient to bring about a significant improvement in labor market conditions. Growth in household spending picked up late last year, but remains constrained by high unemployment, ...


New Home Sales in December at annual rate of 329,000
Posted: January 26, 2011 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Sales of new single-family houses in December 2010 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 329,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 17.5 percent (±17.7%) above the revised November rate of 280,000, but is 7.6 percent (±17.0%) below ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: January 26, 2011 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 21, 2011. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 12.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 12.0 percent ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity down 7 to 18
Posted: January 25, 2011 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Manufacturing activity in the central Atlantic region expanded for the fourth straight month, according to the Richmond Fed's latest survey. Looking at the main components of the overall index, shipments and new orders grew more slowly, while employment growth held steady. Other indicators varied but suggested continued solid ...


Consumer Confidence Jumps in January
Posted: January 25, 2011 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had dipped in December, increased in January. The Index now stands at 60.6 (1985=100), up from 53.3 in December. The Present Situation Index improved to 31.0 from 24.9. The Expectations Index increased to 80.3 from 72.3 last month.

Consumers have begun the year in better spirits. As ...


S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices keep weakening
Posted: January 25, 2011 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

Data through November 2010, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show a deceleration in the annual growth rates in 17 of the 20 MSAs and the 10- and 20-City Composites compared to what was reported for October 2010. The 10-City Composite was down 0.4% and ...


ICSC Chain Store Sales dropped 1.2% in Jan 22 Wk
Posted: January 25, 2011 at 07:45 AM (Tuesday)

For the week ending January 22, weekly retail sales declined by 1.2 percent, according to the ICSC-Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index. However, the year-over-year pace improved from the prior week, increasing by 2.8 percent.

“Adverse weather in the East once again curbed discretionary spending, negatively impacting sales,” said Michael Niemira, ICSC director of research and chief economist. “However, January is a low volume month for sales and although it is shaping up to be softer than recent ...


Philadelphia Fed January Outlook Points to Growth
Posted: January 20, 2011 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Results from the Business Outlook Survey suggest that regional manufacturing activity continues to expand in January. All of the broad indicators remained positive this month and there was an apparent pickup in new orders and employment. Increases in input prices continue to be widespread this month, and more firms reported increases in prices ...


U.S. leading economic index increased 1.0%
Posted: January 20, 2011 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 1.0 percent in December to 112.4 (2004 = 100), following a 1.1 percent increase in November, and a 0.4 percent increase in October.

While the LEI points to an economic expansion that is gaining further traction, its components still suggest the expansion path may be uneven. December’s gain was led by housing permits, the interest rate spread, initial claims for unemployment insurance and consumer ...


Existing-Home Sales rose 12.3% in December
Posted: January 20, 2011 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Existing-home sales rose sharply in December, when sales increased for the fifth time in the past six months, according to the National Association of REALTORS®.

Existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, rose 12.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.28 million in December from an upwardly revised 4.70 million in November, but remain 2.9 percent ...


DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer declined by 1.0%
Posted: January 20, 2011 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

For the week ending January 8, 2011, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer declined sharply by -1.0 percent. The barometer was overpowered in the latest week by a huge decline in inflation-adjusted chain store sales. According to ICSC, the chain store sales index tumbled in the week ending the 8th, “possibly exaggerated by the seasonal ...


Weekly initial unemployment claims decrease 37,000 to 404,000
Posted: January 20, 2011 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending Jan. 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 404,000, a decrease of 37,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 441,000. The 4-week moving average was 411,750, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week's revised average of ...


December Housing starts down 4.3%, Permits jump 16.7%
Posted: January 19, 2011 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

BUILDING PERMITS
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 635,000. This is 16.7 percent (±2.1%) above the revised November rate of 544,000, but is 6.8 percent (±2.8%) below the December 2009 estimate of 681,000. Single-family authorizations in December were at a rate ...


ICSC Chain Store Sales dropped 0.1% in Jan 15 Wk
Posted: January 19, 2011 at 07:45 AM (Wednesday)

Ice and snow storms during the past week played havoc with the consumers’ ability to shop. Overall, for the week ending January 15, sales slipped slightly by 0.1 percent, according to the ICSC-Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index. In addition to the weekly sales decline, sales on a year-over-year basis experienced their smallest gain ...


Purchase Apps Up, Refi's Up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: January 19, 2011 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 14, 2011. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 5.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 6.4 percent ...


Builder Confidence Remains Unchanged In January
Posted: January 18, 2011 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes held unchanged at a relatively low level of 16 for a third consecutive month in January, according to the latest National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), ...


Treasury International Capital Data for November 2010
Posted: January 18, 2011 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for November 2010. Net foreign purchases of long-term securities were $85.1 billion.

Net foreign purchases of long-term U.S. securities were $93.9 billion. Of this, net purchases by private foreign investors were $81.9 billion, and net purchases by foreign official institutions were $12.0 billion. U.S. residents purchased a net $8.8 billion of long-term ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions Improved
Posted: January 18, 2011 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers improved in January. The general business conditions index rose 2 points to 11.9. The new orders index moved up 10 points to 12.4, and the shipments index surged 18 points to 25.4. After a sharp decline last month, the inventories index rose above ...


Business Inventories up 0.2% in November
Posted: January 14, 2011 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that the combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for November, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,133.1 billion, up 1.2 percent (±0.1%) from October 2010 and up 8.5 percent (±0.5%) from ...


Industrial Production increased 0.8%
Capacity Utilization rose to 76.0%

Posted: January 14, 2011 at 09:15 AM (Friday)

Industrial production increased 0.8 percent in December after having risen 0.3 percent in November. The rate of change for industrial production was revised down in November but revised up in September and October; the net effect of the revisions from July to November left the level of industrial production in November slightly higher than ...


U.S. Retail Sales for December up 0.6%, Ex-Auto up 0.5%
Posted: January 14, 2011 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for December, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $380.9 billion, an increase of 0.6 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month, and 7.9 percent (±0.7%) above December 2009. ...


Consumer Price Index up 0.5 in December, ex Fd & Engy up 0.1%
Posted: January 14, 2011 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.5 percent in December on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.5 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The energy index increased in December. The gasoline index rose sharply ...


Real Average Hourly Earnings fell 0.4% in December
Posted: January 14, 2011 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Real average hourly earnings for all employees fell 0.4 percent from November to December, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. A 0.1 percent increase in average hourly earnings was more than offset by a 0.5 percent increase in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban ...


DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer was flat
Posted: January 13, 2011 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

For the week ending January 1, 2011, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer was flat. After the amazing run-up in economic activity toward the end of the year we’ll not complain if the barometer wants to take a little breather…as long as it is short-lived! The timing of factory shut-downs surrounding the New Year’s floating holiday tends to ...


Goods and Services Deficit Decreased in November 2010
Posted: January 13, 2011 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The Nation’s international trade deficit in goods and services decreased to $38.3 billion in November from $38.4 billion (revised) in October, as exports increased more than imports.

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that total November exports of $159.6 billion and imports of $198.0 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $38.3 billion, down from $38.4 ...


Producer Price Index up 1.1% in December, ex Fd & Engy up 0.2%
Posted: January 13, 2011 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods rose 1.1 percent in December, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This advance followed increases of 0.8 percent in November and 0.4 percent in October and marks the sixth straight rise in finished goods prices. At the earlier stages of processing, prices received ...


Weekly initial unemployment claims increase 35,000 to 445,000
Posted: January 13, 2011 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending Jan. 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 445,000, an increase of 35,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 410,000. The 4-week moving average was 416,500, an increase of 5,500 from the previous week's revised average of ...


Beige Book: Economic Activity Continued to Expand Moderately
Posted: January 12, 2011 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts suggest that economic activity continued to expand moderately from November through December. Conditions were said to be improving in the Boston, New York, Philadelphia, and Richmond Districts. Activity increased modestly to moderately in the Cleveland, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Kansas City, ...


U.S. Import Price Index increased 1.1% in December
Posted: January 12, 2011 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

U.S. import prices rose 1.1 percent in December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, after increasing 1.5 percent in November and 1.1 percent in October. Import prices advanced 4.8 percent in 2010. The price index for U.S. exports increased 0.7 percent in December and 6.5 percent over the ...


Purchase Apps Up, Refi's Up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: January 12, 2011 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 7, 2011. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 2.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 47.5 percent ...


Wholesale Inventories down 0.2% in November
Posted: January 11, 2011 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that November 2010 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $370.1 billion, up 1.9 percent (+/-0.4%) from the revised October level and were up 12.2 percent ...


Job Openings were 3.2 million in November
Posted: January 11, 2011 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

There were 3.2 million job openings on the last business day of November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The job openings rate was essentially unchanged over the month at 2.4 percent. Both the hires rate and the separations rate were little changed at 3.2 percent each in November. This release includes estimates of the ...


ICSC Chain Store Sales dropped 3.2% in Jan 8 Wk
Posted: January 11, 2011 at 07:45 AM (Tuesday)

After four solid weeks of shopping consumers finally took a break and left retailers with a post-holiday sales slump. As a result, week-over-week retail sales declined by a sharp 3.2 percent, according to the ICSC-Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index. However, on a year-over-year basis, the pace of retail sales remained relatively ...


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index down to 92.6
Posted: January 11, 2011 at 07:30 AM (Tuesday)

The Index of Small Business Optimism lost 0.6 points in December, dropping to 92.6, not a huge change but not the hope-for rebound that would signify more growth in the small business sector. Apparently, the “management change”in Washington and marginally better retail sales numbers were not enough to pump up spirits at the New Year ...


Employment Trends Index increased in December to 99.3
Posted: January 10, 2011 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased in December for the third consecutive month, closing the last quarter of 2010 on a positive note. The index now stands at 99.3, up from November’s revised figure of 98.5. The index is up 7.6 percent from a ...



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