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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 201411



New Home Sales in October at annual rate of 458,000
Posted: November 26, 2014 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Sales of new single-family houses in October 2014 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 458,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 0.7 percent (±16.5%) above the revised September rate of 455,000 and is 1.8 percent (±17.4%)* above the ...


Pending Home Sales Index decreased 1.1% in October
Posted: November 26, 2014 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Pending home sales declined in October but remained at a healthy level of activity and are above year-over-year levels for the second straight month, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, decreased 1.1 percent to 104.1 in October from an upwardly-revised 105.3 in September, but is 2.2 percent higher than October 2013 (101.9). The index is above 100—considered an average ...


DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer rose by 0.4%
Posted: November 26, 2014 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

For the week ending November 15 2014, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer rose by 0.4 percent to 98.6, extending the growing trend to two weeks. The biggest factor that contributed to the performance of this week’s barometer was MBA’s purchase index, which increased by a sharp 11.7 percent, following 1.1 percent in the prior week. As to ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence increased in November to 88.8
Posted: November 26, 2014 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Consumer confidence posted its fourth consecutive monthly gain in November, rising to its highest level since July 2007. The November gain was due to improved personal finances as well as a more favorable outlook for employment. Importantly, consumers expressed much more favorable buying plans for durables and vehicles in the most recent ...


Chicago Purchasing Managers Index fell 5.4 points to 60.8 in November
Posted: November 26, 2014 at 09:45 AM (Wednesday)

The Chicago Business Barometer fell 5.4 points to 60.8 in November from a one year high of 66.2 in October driven by a double digit drop in New Orders.

The Barometer‘s decline reversed nearly all of October’s sharp increase, leaving it back close to the September level. All five components which contribute to the Barometer fell between October and November. ...


Personal Income increased 0.2%, Spending increased 0.2%
Posted: November 26, 2014 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Personal income increased $32.9 billion, or 0.2 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $23.4 billion, or 0.2 percent, in October, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $27.3 billion, or 0.2 percent. In September, personal income increased $24.6 billion, or 0.2 percent, ...


New Orders for Durable Goods Increased 0.4%, Ex-Trans Down 0.9%
Posted: November 26, 2014 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

New orders for manufactured durable goods in October increased $1.0 billion or 0.4 percent to $243.8 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, followed a 0.9 percent September decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.9 percent. Excluding defense, new ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 21,000 to 313,000
Posted: November 26, 2014 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

In the week ending November 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 313,000, an increase of 21,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 291,000 to 292,000. The 4-week moving average was 294,000, an increase of 6,250 from the previous week's revised average. ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: November 26, 2014 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 4.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 21, 2014. The previous week’s results had included an adjustment for the Veterans ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity Index dropped 16 points to a reading of 4
Posted: November 25, 2014 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity grew modestly in November, according to the most recent survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Shipments and the volume of new orders flattened this month, while manufacturing employment and average wage growth continued at a moderate pace. The average workweek lengthened at a slightly slower ...


Consumer Confidence declined in November to 88.7
Posted: November 25, 2014 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had rebounded in October, declined in November. The Index now stands at 88.7 (1985=100), down from 94.1 in October. The Present Situation Index declined from 94.4 to 91.3, while the Expectations Index decreased sharply to 87.0 from 93.8 ...


S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices decrease 0.1% in September
Posted: November 25, 2014 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the September 2014 index data for the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Results show that home prices continue to decelerate. The 10-City Composite gained 4.8% year-over-year, down from 5.5% in August. The 20-City Composite gained 4.9% year-over-year, compared to ...


3Q2014 GDP preliminary estimate increased 3.9%
Posted: November 25, 2014 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Real gross domestic product -- the value of the production of goods and services in the United States, adjusted for price changes -- increased at an annual rate of 3.9 percent in the third quarter of 2014, according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased ...


ICSC Chain Store Sales increased by 2.2% in Nov 22 Wk
Posted: November 25, 2014 at 07:45 AM (Tuesday)

The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) and Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index increased 1.7% for the week ending November 22 - relative to the prior year. On a week-over-week basis, sales increased rapidly by 2.2%.

"Early Black Friday promotions helped propel sales on a week-over-week basis," said Michael Niemira, ICSC research consultant. "Weather was a bit of a mixed-bag over the past week for retailers as colder weather got the consumer in the winter apparel mindset - however ...


Texas Manufacturing Activity Posts Slower Growth in November
Posted: November 24, 2014 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity increased again in November, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell from 13.7 to 6, indicating output growth slowed ...


Chicago Fed National Activity moderated in October
Posted: November 24, 2014 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) moved down to +0.14 in October from +0.29 in September. Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from September, and two of the four categories made negative contributions to the index ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity expanded at a slightly faster pace in Nov
Posted: November 21, 2014 at 11:00 AM (Friday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity expanded at a slightly faster pace in November, and producers’ expectations for future activity increased further. Firms reported rising difficulties in attracting and retaining certain key workers, and several contacts cited increased labor costs. Price indexes were mixed with little ...


DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer picked up by 0.3%
Posted: November 20, 2014 at 02:01 PM (Thursday)

For the week ending November 8 2014, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer picked up by 0.3 percent to 98.2, after several weeks of weak trend. The recovery in this week’s barometer was driven by both consumption and production indexes. Chain store sales bounced back by 1.5 percent following a 1.6 percent drop in the last week. MBA’s purchase ...


U.S. Leading Economic Index increased 0.9%
Posted: November 20, 2014 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.9 percent in October to 105.2 (2004 = 100), following a 0.7 percent increase in September, and no change in August.

The LEI rose sharply in October, with all components gaining over the previous six months. Despite a negative contribution from stock prices in October, and minimal contributions from new orders for consumer goods and average workweek in manufacturing, the LEI suggests the ...


Existing-Home Sales increased 1.5% in October
Posted: November 20, 2014 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Existing-home sales rose in October for the second straight month and are now above year-over-year levels for the first time in a year, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, rose 1.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.26 million in October from an upwardly-revised 5.18 million in September. Sales are ...


Philadelphia November Outlook Suggest Pickup in Growth
Posted: November 20, 2014 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, increased from 20.7 in October to 40.8 this month and has now been positive for nine consecutive months. This was the highest reading since December 1993. The percentage of firms reporting increased activity this month (49 percent) was ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 2,000 to 291,000
Posted: November 20, 2014 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending November 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 291,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 3,000 from 290,000 to 293,000. The 4-week moving average was 287,500, an increase of 1,750 from the previous week's revised average. ...


Consumer Price Index unch% in October, Ex Fd & Engy up 0.2%
Posted: November 20, 2014 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.

Gasoline and other energy indexes declined, offsetting increases in shelter and an array of other indexes to leave the seasonally adjusted all items index unchanged. The gasoline index fell for the fourth month in a row, declining 3.0 percent, and the indexes for natural ...


Real Average Hourly Earnings rose 0.1% in October
Posted: November 20, 2014 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Real average hourly earnings for all employees rose 0.1 percent from September to October, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from a 0.1 percent increase in average hourly earnings combined with no change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban ...


October Housing Starts down 2.8%, Permits up 4.8%
Posted: November 19, 2014 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

BUILDING PERMITS
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,080,000. This is 4.8 percent (±1.3%) above the revised September rate of 1,031,000 and is 1.2 percent (±1.2%) above the October 2013 estimate of 1,067,000. Single-family authorizations in October were at a rate ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: November 19, 2014 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 4.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 14, 2014. This week’s results included an adjustment for the Veterans ...


Treasury International Capital Data for September 2014
Posted: November 18, 2014 at 04:00 PM (Tuesday)

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for September 2014. The sum total in September of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a monthly net TIC outflow of $55.6 billion. Of this, net foreign private outflows were $46.1 ...


Builder Confidence rose 4 points in November to 58
Posted: November 18, 2014 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes rose four points to a level of 58 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), released today.

Growing confidence among consumers is what’s fueling this optimism among builders. Members in many areas of the country continue to see increasing buyer traffic and signed contracts. ...


Producer Price Index rose 0.2% in October, ex Fd & Engy down 0.1%
Posted: November 18, 2014 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.2 percent in October, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This increase followed a 0.1-percent decline in September and no change in August. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand advanced 1.5 percent for the 12 months ended in October, the ...


ICSC Chain Store Sales increased by 0.2% in Nov 15 Wk
Posted: November 18, 2014 at 07:45 AM (Tuesday)

The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) and Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index increased 2.2% for the week ending November 15 - relative to the prior year. On a week-over-week basis, sales increased by 0.2%.

"Gas prices have declined by 81 cents per gallon since early July - which I estimate has saved consumers around $90 billion of expenditure at an annual rate," said Michael Niemira, ICSC research consultant. "The savings should help lift holiday sales," he added. ...


Forecasters Steady Outlook for Growth with Improved Outlook for Labor Market
Posted: November 17, 2014 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The outlook for growth in the U.S. economy over the next four years is little changed from the survey of three months ago, according to 42 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters predict real GDP will grow at an annual rate of 2.7 percent this quarter and 2.8 percent next quarter. On an annual-average ...


Industrial Production edged down 0.1%
Capacity Utilization decreased 0.3% to 78.9%

Posted: November 17, 2014 at 09:15 AM (Monday)

Industrial production edged down 0.1 percent in October after having advanced 0.8 percent in September. In October, manufacturing output increased 0.2 percent for the second consecutive month. The index for mining declined 0.9 percent and the output of utilities moved down 0.7 percent. At 104.9 percent of its 2007 average, total ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions continue to expand
Posted: November 17, 2014 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

The November 2014 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that business activity continued to expand for New York manufacturers. The headline general business conditions index climbed four points to 10.2, indicating a pace of growth somewhat faster than last month’s. The new orders index rose eleven points to 9.1, and the shipments ...


Business Inventories up 0.3% in September
Posted: November 14, 2014 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that the combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for September, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,352.5 billion, virtually unchanged (±0.3%)* from August 2014, but were up 4.1 percent (±0.6%) from ...


U.S. Import Price Index declined 1.3% in October
Posted: November 14, 2014 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The price index for U.S. imports decreased 1.3 percent in October following a 0.6-percent decline in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The October drop was mostly led by falling fuel prices. U.S. export prices declined 1.0 percent in October, after falling 0.4 percent in September and 0.5 percent ...


U.S. Retail Sales for October increase 0.3%, Ex-Auto up 0.3%
Posted: November 14, 2014 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $444.5 billion, an increase of 0.3 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month, and 4.1 percent (±0.9%) above October 2013. ...


Job Openings were 4.7 million in September
Posted: November 13, 2014 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

There were 4.7 million job openings on the last business day of September, little changed from 4.9 million in August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires (5.0 million) and separations (4.8 million) increased in September. Within separations, the quits rate (2.0 percent) increased and the layoffs and discharges rate ...


DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer slipped by 0.2%
Posted: November 13, 2014 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

For the week ending November 1 2014, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer slipped by 0.2 percent to 97.9, falling to its lowest level since June 2014. The biggest factor that contributed to this week’s barometer was chain store sales, which dipped by 1.6 percent, mainly owing to a big falloff in furniture stores and a moderate decline in office ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 12,000 to 290,000
Posted: November 13, 2014 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending November 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 290,000, an increase of 12,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 278,000. The 4-week moving average was 285,000, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 279,000. There were no special factors impacting this ...


Wholesale Inventories up 0.3% in September
Posted: November 12, 2014 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that September 2014 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $454.3 billion, up 0.2 percent (+/-0.9)* from the revised August level and were up 5.2 percent ...


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index gained 0.8 points to 96.1
Posted: November 12, 2014 at 07:30 AM (Wednesday)

The Small Business Optimism Index gained 0.8 points, restoring the August reading of 96.1, either a strong recession reading or a weak expansion reading, no clear direction. The average of the Index from 1974Q4 to 2014 to date is 98, which includes all the Great Recession readings. The responses to the ten Index component questions would have ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: November 12, 2014 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 0.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending Nov. 7, 2014.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 0.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased two percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased two ...


ICSC Chain Store Sales increased by 1.5% in Nov 8 Wk
Posted: November 11, 2014 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) and Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index increased 2.1% for the week ending November 8 - relative to the prior year. On a week-over-week basis, sales increased by 1.5%.

"Department and electronics stores lead the way this week," said Michael Niemira, ICSC research consultant. "Consumers are still seeing a huge break at the gas pump, with the average price per gallon hitting its lowest point since November 29, 2010 - something that ...


Employment Trends Index increased in October to 123.09
Posted: November 10, 2014 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased in October. The index now stands at 123.09, up from 121.91 (an upward revision) in September. This represents a 7.7 percent gain in the ETI compared to a year ago.

The Employment Trends Index continues to increase rapidly, with all eight components improving in October. The index is signaling solid job growth through the winter. As a result, we could see the unemployment rate reach its natural rate of 5.5 percent by early Spring. ...


Consumer Credit Increased at an annual rate of 6.50%
Posted: November 7, 2014 at 03:00 PM (Friday)

Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6-1/2 percent during the third quarter. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 3 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 8 percent. In September, consumer credit increased at an annual rate of ...


October Employment increased by 214,000
Unemployment Rate dropped to 5.8%

Posted: November 7, 2014 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 214,000 in October, and the unemployment
rate edged down to 5.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in food services and drinking places, retail trade, and health care.

Both the unemployment rate (5.8 percent) and the number of unemployed persons (9.0 million) edged down in October. Since the beginning of the year, the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed persons have declined by 0.8 percentage point and 1.2 million, ...


DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer unch%
Posted: November 6, 2014 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

For the week ending October 25 2014, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer remained at the same level, 98.1, from the prior week as gains in some indexes were entirely cancelled out by drops in others. On one side, electric output and coal production declined by 1.7 and 4.3 percent, respectively, in line with a sharp drop of 5 percent in ...


3Q2014 Productivity Growth Increased 2.0%
Posted: November 6, 2014 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased at a 2.0 percent annual rate during the third quarter of 2014, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output increased 4.4 percent and hours worked increased 2.3 percent. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates.) From the third ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 10,000 to 278,000
Posted: November 6, 2014 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending November 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 278,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 287,000 to 288,000. The 4-week moving average was 279,000, a decrease of 2,250 from the previous week's revised average. This ...


Challenger Layoffs surged nearly 70% in October
Posted: November 6, 2014 at 07:00 AM (Thursday)

Just one month after falling to a 14-year low, monthly job cuts surged nearly 70 percent in October to the second highest total this year, according to the report Thursday from global outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

U.S.-based employers announced 51,183 job cuts last month, a 68-percent increase from September’s 30,477, which was the lowest monthly total since June, 2000 (17,241). October job cuts were 12 percent higher than the 45,730 layoffs announced during the same month a year ...



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