Research >> Economics
Forecasters Steady Outlook for Growth with Improved Outlook for Labor Market
|
The outlook for growth in the U.S. economy over the next four years is little changed from the survey of three months ago, according to 42 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters predict real GDP will grow at an annual rate of 2.7 percent this quarter and 2.8 percent next quarter. On an annual-average over annual-average basis, real GDP will grow 2.2 percent in 2014, up slightly from the previous estimate of 2.1 percent. The forecasters predict real GDP will grow 3.0 percent in 2015, 2.9 percent in 2016, and 2.7 percent in 2017.
An improved outlook for the unemployment rate accompanies the outlook for growth. The forecasters predict the unemployment rate will be an annual average of 6.2 percent in 2014, before falling to 5.6 percent in 2015, 5.4 percent in 2016, and 5.2 percent in 2017. The projections for 2014, 2015, and 2017 are a little below those of the last survey. The projection for 2016 remains unchanged.
On the jobs front, the panelists have revised upward their estimates for job gains in the next two quarters. The forecasters see nonfarm payroll employment growing at a rate of 221,600 jobs per month this quarter and 211,200 jobs per month next quarter. The forecasters' projections for the annual-average level of nonfarm payroll employment suggest job gains at a monthly rate of 206,400 in 2014 and 212,300 in 2015, as the table below shows.
Posted: November 17, 2014 Monday 10:00 AM