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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 202012


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 19,000 to 787,000
Posted: December 31, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending December 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 787,000, a decrease of 19,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 3,000 from 803,000 to 806,000. The 4-week moving average was 836,750, an increase of 17,750 from the previous week's revised average. ...


Pending Home Sales Index fell 2.6% in November
Posted: December 30, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Pending home sales declined in November, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Month-over-month contract activity fell in each of the four major U.S. regions. However, compared to a year ago, all four areas achieved gains in pending home sales transactions.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings, fell 2.6% to 125.7 in November, the third straight month of decline. Year-over-year, contract signings climbed 16.4%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract ...


Chicago Purchasing Managers Index edged up 1.3 points to 59.5 in December
Posted: December 30, 2020 at 09:45 AM (Wednesday)

The Chicago Business BarometerTM, produced with MNI, edged up to 59.5 in December. Through Q4 as a whole, business sentiment recovered further to 59.6, the strongest reading since Q4 2018.

Among the main five indicators, Employment saw the largest monthly gain, followed by Order Backlogs. New Orders recorded the biggest decline. ...


S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices increase 1.4% in October 2020
Posted: December 29, 2020 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for October 2020 show that home prices continue to increase at a modest rate across the U.S.

Please note that transaction records for September 2020 for Wayne County, MI are now available. Due to delays at the local recording office caused by the COVID-19 lockdown, S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic were previously unable to generate a valid September 2020 update ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity Expands at a Faster Pace in December
Posted: December 28, 2020 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Expansion in Texas factory activity picked up in December, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rebounded from 7.2 to 25.5, indicating an acceleration in ...


New Home Sales in November 2020 at annual rate of 841,000
Posted: December 23, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

New Home Sales
Sales of new single-family houses in November 2020 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 841,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 11.0 percent (±9.5 percent) below the revised October rate of 945,000, but is 20.8 ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence improved in December to 80.7
Posted: December 23, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Consumer sentiment improved in the December 2020 survey despite the ongoing surge in covid infections and deaths, according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

The improvement was due to Democrats becoming much more positive and Republicans much more negative about long-term prospects for the national economy, said U-M economist Richard Curtin, director of the surveys. ...


Personal Income decreased 1.1%, Spending decreased 0.4% in November 2020
Posted: December 23, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Personal income decreased $221.8 billion (1.1 percent) in November according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 3 and 5). Disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $218.0 billion (1.2 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $63.3 billion ...


November New Orders for Durable Goods Increased 0.9%, Ex-Trans up 0.4%
Posted: December 23, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in November increased $2.2 billion or 0.9 percent to $244.2 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up seven consecutive months, followed a 1.8 percent October increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.4 percent. Excluding defense, new orders ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 89,000 to 803,000
Posted: December 23, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

In the week ending December 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 803,000, a decrease of 89,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 7,000 from 885,000 to 892,000. The 4-week moving average was 818,250, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's revised average. ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: December 23, 2020 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 0.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 18, 2020.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 0.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 1 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 4 ...


Consumer Confidence declined in December 2020 to 88.6
Posted: December 22, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined in December, after decreasing in November. The Index now stands at 88.6 (1985=100), down from 92.9 in November. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions – decreased sharply from 105.9 to 90.3. However, the Expectations ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity Index rose from 15 to 19 in December 2020
Posted: December 22, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity showed signs of improvement in December, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite index rose from 15 in November to 19 in December, buoyed by increases in the indexes for new orders and employment, while the third component — the shipments index — ...


Existing-Home Sales fell 2.5% in November
Posted: December 22, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Existing-home sales fell in November, snapping a five-month streak of month-over-month gains, according to the National Association of Realtors®. All major regions either took a step back or held steady in terms of their respective month-over-month status, but each of the four areas experienced significant ...


3Q2020 GDP final estimate increased 33.4%
Posted: December 22, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 33.4 percent in the third quarter of 2020 (table 1), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP decreased 31.4 percent.

The "third" estimate of GDP released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 33.1 percent. The upward revision primarily reflected larger increases in ...


Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Survey Suggest Activity moderation continued in December
Posted: December 22, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Firms responding to the December Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey indicated a continued moderation in business activity. The survey's current indicator for general activity at the firm level held steady at a low but positive reading. However, the indexes for new orders and sales/revenues remained negative, and the full-time ...


Chicago Fed National Activity Index Suggests Slower, but Still Slightly Above-Average Growth in November
Posted: December 21, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Led by slower growth in employment- and production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) declined to +0.27 in November from +1.01 in October. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in November, but all four categories decreased from October. The ...


U.S. Leading Economic Index increased 0.6% in November
Posted: December 18, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.6 percent in November to 109.1 (2016 = 100), following a 0.8 percent increase in October and a 0.7 percent increase in September.

“The US LEI continued rising in November, but its pace of improvement has been decelerating in recent months, suggesting a significant moderation in growth as the US economy heads into 2021,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference ...


3Q2020 Current Account Deficit Increased
Posted: December 18, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The U.S. current account deficit, which reflects the combined balances on trade in goods and services and income flows between U.S. residents and residents of other countries, widened by $17.2 billion, or 10.6 percent, to $178.5 billion in the third quarter of 2020, according to statistics released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity expanded further in December
Posted: December 17, 2020 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity expanded further in December. Manufacturing activity was still below year ago levels, but expectations for future activity were positive. Prices paid for raw materials and finished goods rose further from a month ago and a year ago. District firms expected prices for both raw materials and finished goods ...


November Housing Starts Increased 1.2%, Permits up 6.2%
Posted: December 17, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Building Permits
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,639,000. This is 6.2 percent (±1.5 percent) above the revised October rate of 1,544,000 and is 8.5 percent (±1.8 percent) above the November 2019 rate of 1,510,000. Single-family authorizations in November ...


Philadelphia Fed Outlook Activity showed less widespread growth in December
Posted: December 17, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Manufacturing activity in the region continued to grow, but growth was, according to firms responding to the December Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's current indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments remained positive for the seventh consecutive month but fell notably from their readings in November. ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 23,000 to 885,000
Posted: December 17, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending December 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 885,000, an increase of 23,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 9,000 from 853,000 to 862,000. The 4-week moving average was 812,500, an increase of 34,250 from the previous week's revised average. ...


FOMC target funds rate maintained at 0.00% - 0.25%
Posted: December 16, 2020 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.

The COVID-19 pandemic is causing tremendous human and economic hardship across the United States and around the world. Economic activity and employment have continued to recover but remain well below their levels at the beginning of the year. Weaker demand and earlier ...


Business Inventories up 0.9% in October
Posted: December 16, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for October, adjusted for seasonal and trading day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,482.3 billion, up 0.9 percent (±0.1 percent) from September 2020 and was up 2.2 percent (±0.3 percent) from ...


NAHB Builder Confidence fell four points to 86 in December
Posted: December 16, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Ending a string of three successive months of record highs, builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes fell four points to 86 in December, according to the latest NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). Despite the decline, December is still the second-highest reading in the history of the series after last ...


U.S. Retail Sales for November 2020 Decreased 1.1%, Ex-Auto down 0.9%
Posted: December 16, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November 2020, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $546.5 billion, a decrease of 1.1 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, but 4.1 percent (±0.7 percent) above November 2019. Total sales for the September ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: December 16, 2020 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 1.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 11, 2020.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 1.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 0.4 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 1 ...


Treasury International Capital Data for October 2020
Posted: December 15, 2020 at 04:00 PM (Tuesday)

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for October 2020. The sum total in October of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a net TIC outflow of $10.4 billion. Of this, net foreign private outflows were $28.9 billion, and ...


Industrial Production increased 0.4%
Capacity Utilization increased to 73.3%

Posted: December 15, 2020 at 09:15 AM (Tuesday)

Industrial production increased 0.4 percent in November. After having fallen 16.5 percent between February and April, the level of the index has risen to about 5 percent below its pre-pandemic (February) reading. In November, manufacturing output advanced 0.8 percent for its seventh consecutive monthly gain. An increase of 5.3 percent for ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions edged slightly higher in December 2020
Posted: December 15, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Business activity edged slightly higher in New York State, according to firms responding to the December 2020 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index was little changed at 4.9. New orders increased marginally, and shipments were modestly higher. Inventories continued to move lower, and delivery times ...


U.S. Import Price Index ticked up 0.1% in November 2020
Posted: December 15, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Prices for U.S. imports ticked up 0.1 percent in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, after edging down 0.1 percent in October. Higher fuel prices in November more than offset lower nonfuel prices. U.S. export prices also rose in November, increasing 0.6 percent following advances of 0.2 percent in October and 0.6 ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Preliminary December Results increase to 81.4
Posted: December 11, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer sentiment posted a surprising increase in early December due to a partisan shift in economic prospects. Following Biden's election, Democrats became much more optimistic, and Republicans much more pessimistic, the opposite of the partisan shift that occurred when Trump was elected. In the five months from August to December, ...


Producer Price Index rose 0.1% in November, ex Fd & Engy up 0.1%
Posted: December 11, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The Producer Price Index for final demand advanced 0.1 percent in November, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices rose 0.3 percent in October and 0.4 percent in September. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index increased 0.8 percent for the 12 months ended in ...


Consumer Price Index increased 0.2% in November, Ex Fd & Engy up 0.2%
Posted: December 10, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in November on a seasonally adjusted basis after being unchanged in October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.2 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The seasonally adjusted increase in the ...


Real Average Hourly Earnings increased 0.1% in November 2020
Posted: December 10, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

All employees
Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.1 percent from October to November, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from an increase of 0.3 percent in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.2 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 137,000 to 853,000
Posted: December 10, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending December 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 853,000, an increase of 137,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 4,000 from 712,000 to 716,000. The 4-week moving average was 776,000, an increase of 35,500 from the previous week's revised average. ...


Job Openings up to 6.7 million in October
Posted: December 9, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

The number of job openings was little changed at 6.7 million on the last business day of October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires were little changed at 5.8 million while total separations increased to 5.1 million. Within separations, the quits rate was unchanged at 2.2 percent while the layoffs and discharges ...


Wholesale Inventories up 1.1% in October 2020
Posted: December 9, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

October 2020 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading day differences but not for price changes, were $496.6 billion, up 1.8 percent (±0.4 percent) from the revised September level and were up 0.9 percent (±0.7 percent) from the revised October 2019 ...


Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine Index fell in November to 102.5
Posted: December 9, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

The Conference Board®-Burning Glass® Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Index fell in November and now stands at 102.5 (July 2018=100), down from 103.8 in October. The Index rose 3.3 percent from September to October and is up 0.8 percent from a year ago.

The Help Wanted OnLine® Index is produced in collaboration with Burning Glass Technologies, the global pioneer in real-time labor market data and analysis. This recent collaboration enhances the Help Wanted OnLine® program by providing additional insights into important ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: December 9, 2020 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 1.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 4, 2020. The previous week's results included an adjustment for the ...


Consumer Credit Increased at an annual rate of 2.00% in October
Posted: December 8, 2020 at 03:00 PM (Tuesday)

In October, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2 percent. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 6-3/4 percent, and nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 4-3/4 percent.

...


3Q2020 Productivity Growth increased 4.6%
Posted: December 8, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 4.6 percent in the third quarter of 2020, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output increased 43.4 percent and hours worked increased 37.1 percent. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates, and show what the percent change would ...


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dipped to 101.4 in November
Posted: December 8, 2020 at 07:00 AM (Tuesday)

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined 2.6 points in November to 101.4 but remain well above the 47-year historical average reading of 98. Six of the 10 Index components declined and four increased. The NFIB Uncertainty Index decreased 8 points to 90, still a historically high reading. Owners expecting better business conditions over ...


Employment Trends Index increased in November to 98.81
Posted: December 7, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased in November, the seventh consecutive monthly increase since May. The index now stands at 98.81, up from 98.32 (an upward revision) in October. However, the index is still down 10.2 percent from a year ago.

“The Employment Trends Index increased again in November, but the pace of improvement has moderated compared to previous months,” said Gad Levanon, Head of The Conference Board Labor Markets Institute. “The index signals that the recovery of the labor market may be slowing ...


New orders for manufactured goods increased 1.0% in October 2020
Posted: December 4, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

New orders for manufactured goods in October, up six consecutive months, increased $4.9 billion or 1.0 percent to $480.8 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 1.3 percent September increase. Shipments, also up six consecutive months, increased $4.9 billion or 1.0 percent to $488.6 billion. This followed a 0.5 ...


November Employment rose by 245,000
Unemployment Rate edged down to 6.7%

Posted: December 4, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 245,000 in November, and the unemployment rate edged down to 6.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. These improvements in the labor market reflect the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to ...


Goods and Services Deficit Increased in October 2020
Posted: December 4, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The nation's international trade deficit in goods and services increased to $63.1 billion in October from $62.1 billion in September (revised), as imports increased more than exports. The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $63.1 billion in October, up $1.0 ...


ISM Non-Manufacturing Index dipped to 55.9% in November
Posted: December 3, 2020 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Economic activity in the services sector grew in November for the sixth month in a row, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Services Business Survey Committee: “The Services PMI™ registered 55.9 percent, 0.7 percentage point lower than the October reading of 56.6 ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 75,000 to 712,000
Posted: December 3, 2020 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending November 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 712,000, a decrease of 75,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 9,000 from 778,000 to 787,000. The 4-week moving average was 739,500, a decrease of 11,250 from the previous week's revised average. ...



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