Research >> Economics

Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 202106


Pending Home Sales Index rose 8.0% in May
Posted: June 30, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Pending home sales rebounded strongly in May, reaching the highest reading ever for the month of May since 2005, according to the National Association of Realtors®. All four U.S. regions registered both month-over-month increases and year-over-year gains for pending home sales contract transactions for the month ...


Chicago Purchasing Managers Index Slipped 9.1 points to 66.1 in June
Posted: June 30, 2021 at 09:45 AM (Wednesday)

The Chicago Business BarometerTM, produced with MNI, fell to 66.1 in June, a four-month low. Through Q2, the index surged 7.9 points to 71.1, its highest quarterly reading since Q4 1973.

Among the main five indicators, Order Backlogs saw the largest decline, with Supplier Deliveries posting the only gain. ...


Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index Points to little change in growth through May
Posted: June 30, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The Midwest Economy Index (MEI), which approximates quarterly growth at a monthly frequency, moved up to +0.69 in May from +0.63 in April. Contributions to the May MEI from three of the four broad sectors of nonfarm business activity and two of the five Seventh Federal Reserve District states increased from April. The relative MEI increased ...


ADP National Employment Report Increased by 692,000 jobs in June
Posted: June 30, 2021 at 08:15 AM (Wednesday)

Private sector employment increased by 692,000 jobs from May to June according to the June ADP® National Employment Report. “The labor market recovery remains robust, with June closing out a strong second quarter of jobs growth,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “While payrolls are still nearly 7 million short of pre-COVID-19 ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: June 30, 2021 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 6.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 25, 2021.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 6.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 7 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 8 ...


Consumer Confidence improved further in June 2021 to 127.3
Posted: June 29, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® improved further in June, following gains in each of the previous four months. The Index now stands at 127.3 (1985=100), up from 120.0 (an upward revision) in May. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—rose from 148.7 to 157.7. ...


S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices increase 2.1% in April 2021
Posted: June 29, 2021 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for April 2021 show that home prices continue to increase across the U.S.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 14.6% annual gain in April, up from 13.3% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 14.4%, up from 12.9% in ...


Paychex-IHS Small Business Jobs Index grew to 98.52 in June 2021
Posted: June 29, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Despite the competitive hiring environment, small business employment growth grew 0.26 percent in June, according to aggregated payroll data of approximately 350,000 clients provided by Paychex. The data released in the latest report of the Paychex | IHS Markit Small Business Employment Watch shows momentum in job growth with the Small ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity expanded at a faster pace in June 2021
Posted: June 28, 2021 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity expanded at a faster pace in June, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose 14 points to 29.4, a reading indicative of strong output growth. Other measures of manufacturing activity also pointed ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence increased in June to 85.5
Posted: June 25, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer sentiment rebounded in June to the second-highest level since the start of the pandemic, according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

All of the June gain was among households with incomes above $100,000, and mainly in the way they judged the future economic outlook, said U-M economist Richard Curtin, director of the surveys. ...


Personal Income Decreased 2.0%, Spending Increased 0.1% in May 2021
Posted: June 25, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Personal income decreased $414.3 billion (2.0 percent) in May according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 3 and 5). Disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $436.3 billion (2.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $2.9 billion (less than 0.1 percent). Real DPI decreased 2.8 ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity remained at a strong pace in June 2021
Posted: June 24, 2021 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity remained strong, and expectations for future activity increased to a survey record high. The index of prices paid for raw materials and prices received for finished goods compared with a month ago remained very high. Price indexes vs. a year ago posted record highs again in June. Moving forward, district ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease 7,000 to 411,000
Posted: June 24, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending June 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 411,000, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 6,000 from 412,000 to 418,000. The 4-week moving average was 397,750, an increase of 1,500 from the previous week's revised average. The ...


May 2021 New Orders for Durable Goods Increased 2.3%, Ex-Trans up 0.3%
Posted: June 24, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in May increased $5.7 billion or 2.3 percent to $253.3 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up twelve of the last thirteen months, followed a 0.8 percent April decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.3 percent. Excluding defense, new orders ...


1Q2021 GDP final estimate increased 6.4%
Posted: June 24, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 6.4 percent in the first quarter of 2021 (table 1), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 4.3 percent. The "third" estimate of GDP released today is based on more complete source data than ...


New Home Sales in May 2021 at annual rate of 769,000
Posted: June 23, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

New Home Sales
Sales of new single‐family houses in May 2021 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 769,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 5.9 percent (±18.6 percent)* below the revised April rate of 817,000, but is 9.2 percent ...


1Q2021 Current Account Deficit Increased
Posted: June 23, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The U.S. current account deficit, which reflects the combined balances on trade in goods and services and income flows between U.S. residents and residents of other countries, widened by $20.7 billion, or 11.8 percent, to $195.7 billion in the first quarter of 2021, according to statistics from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: June 23, 2021 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 2.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 18, 2021.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 2.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 1 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 3 ...


Existing-Home Sales decreased 0.9% in May 2021
Posted: June 22, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Existing-home sales decreased for a fourth straight month in May, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Only one major U.S. region recorded a month-over-month increase, while the other three regions saw sales decline. However, each of the four areas again registered double-digit ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity Index rose to 22 in June 2021
Posted: June 22, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity expanded in June, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite index rose from 18 in May to 22 in June. This was driven by an increase in the new orders index, while the other two component indexes — shipments and employment — also remained in ...


Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Survey indicated further strengthening in activity in June 2021
Posted: June 22, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Responses to the June Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest further strengthening in nonmanufacturing activity in the region. The indicators for firm-level general activity, new orders, and sales/revenues all rose sharply. However, the full-time employment index decreased but remained positive. The respondents expect overall ...


Chicago Fed National Activity Index Suggests a Pickup in Economic Growth in May
Posted: June 21, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to +0.29 in May from –0.09 in April. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in May, and three categories improved from April. The index’s three-month moving ...


U.S. Leading Economic Index increased 1.3% in May 2021
Posted: June 17, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased by 1.3 percent in May to 114.5 (2016 = 100), following a 1.3 percent increase in April and a 1.4 percent increase in March.

“After another large improvement in May, the U.S. LEI now stands above its previous peak reached in January 2020 (112.0), suggesting that strong economic growth will continue in the near term,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase 37,000 to 412,000
Posted: June 17, 2021 at 08:31 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending June 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 412,000, an increase of 37,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 1,000 from 376,000 to 375,000. The 4-week moving average was 395,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week's revised average. This ...


Philadelphia Fed Outlook Activity continued to grow in June 2021
Posted: June 17, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Manufacturing activity in the region continued to grow, according to the firms responding to the June Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments remained elevated, although movements were mixed. Additionally, the employment index increased, while the price indexes climbed ...


FOMC target funds rate maintained at 0.00% - 0.25%
Posted: June 16, 2021 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.

Progress on vaccinations has reduced the spread of COVID-19 in the United States. Amid this progress and strong policy support, indicators of economic activity and employment have strengthened. The sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic remain weak but have shown ...


U.S. Import Price Index increased 1.1% in May 2021
Posted: June 16, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Prices for U.S. imports increased 1.1 percent in May, after a 0.8-percent advance the previous month, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Higher prices for fuel and nonfuel imports contributed to both the May and April rises. U.S. export prices increased 2.2 percent in May following a 1.1-percent advance ...


May Housing Starts Increased 3.6%, Permits down 3.0%
Posted: June 16, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Building Permits
Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,681,000. This is 3.0 percent (±1.4 percent) below the revised April rate of 1,733,000, but is 34.9 percent (±2.4 percent) above the May 2020 rate of 1,246,000. Single‐family authorizations in May were at a rate ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: June 16, 2021 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 4.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 11, 2021. The previous week's results included an adjustment for the Memorial ...


Treasury International Capital Data for April 2021
Posted: June 15, 2021 at 04:00 PM (Tuesday)

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for April 2021. The sum total in April of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a net TIC inflow of $101.2 billion. Of this, net foreign private inflows were $118.3 billion, and net ...


Business Inventories down 0.2% in April 2021
Posted: June 15, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Sales
The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for April, adjusted for seasonal and trading day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,621.1 billion, up 0.6 percent (±0.1 percent) from March 2021 and was up 40.0 percent (±0.6 percent) from ...


NAHB Builder Confidence fell two points to 81 in June 2021
Posted: June 15, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Rising material prices and supply chain shortages resulted in builder confidence dipping to its lowest level since August 2020. The latest National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today shows that builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes fell two points to 81 in ...


Industrial Production increased 0.8%
Capacity Utilization increased to 75.2%

Posted: June 15, 2021 at 09:15 AM (Tuesday)

Total industrial production increased 0.8 percent in May. Manufacturing production advanced 0.9 percent, reflecting, in part, a large gain in motor vehicle assemblies; factory output excluding motor vehicles and parts increased 0.5 percent. The indexes for mining and utilities rose 1.2 percent and 0.2 ...


Producer Price Index rose 0.8% in May, ex Fd & Engy up 1.1%
Posted: June 15, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.8 percent in May, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices rose 0.6 percent in April and 1.0 percent in March. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index advanced 6.6 percent for the 12 months ended in May, the largest increase ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions continued to expand at slower pace in June 2021
Posted: June 15, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Business activity continued to expand in New York State, though at a slower pace than last month, according to firms responding to the June 2021 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell seven points to 17.4. New orders and shipments increased moderately, and there was a rise in unfilled ...


U.S. Retail Sales for May 2021 decrease 1.3%, Ex-Auto down 0.7%
Posted: June 15, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for May 2021, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $620.2 billion, a decrease of 1.3% (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, but 28.1 percent (±0.7 percent) above May 2020. Total sales for the March 2021 through May ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Preliminary June Results Rose to 86.4
Posted: June 11, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer sentiment rose in early June, recouping two-thirds of May's loss. The early June gain was mainly among middle and upper income households and for future economic prospects rather than current conditions. Stronger growth in the national economy was anticipated, with an all-time record number of consumers anticipating a net decline ...


Consumer Price Index increased 0.6% in May, Ex Fd & Engy up 0.7%
Posted: June 10, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.6 percent in May on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.8 percent in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 5.0 percent before seasonal adjustment; this was the largest 12-month increase since ...


Real Average Hourly Earnings decreased 0.2% in May 2021
Posted: June 10, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

All employees
Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.2 percent from April to May, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from an increase of 0.5 percent in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.6 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease 9,000 to 376,000
Posted: June 10, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending June 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 376,000, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 385,000. This is the lowest level for initial claims since March 14, 2020 when it was 256,000. The 4-week moving average was 402,500, a decrease of 25,500 from the previous ...


Wholesale Inventories up 0.8% in April 2021
Posted: June 9, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

April 2021 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading day differences but not for price changes, were $570.8 billion, up 0.8 percent (±0.4 percent) from the revised March level and were up 43.6 percent (±1.4 percent) from the revised April 2020 level. ...


Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine Index rose in May 2021 to 126.9
Posted: June 9, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

The Conference Board®-Burning Glass® Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Index rose in May and now stands at 126.9 (July 2018=100), up from 118.1 in April. The Index declined 4.4 percent from March to April and is up 53.2 percent from a year ago.

The Help Wanted OnLine® Index is produced in collaboration with Burning Glass Technologies, the global pioneer in real-time labor market data and analysis. This recent collaboration enhances the Help Wanted OnLine® program by providing additional insights into important ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: June 9, 2021 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 3.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 4, 2021. This week's results include an adjustment for the Memorial Day holiday.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 3.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 13 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 5 ...


Job Openings reached a series high of 9.3 million in April
Posted: June 8, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The number of job openings reached a series high of 9.3 million on the last business day of April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires were little changed at 6.1 million. Total separations increased to 5.8 million. Within separations, the quits rate reached a series high of 2.7 percent while the layoffs and discharges ...


Goods and Services Deficit Decreased in April 2021
Posted: June 8, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The nation's international trade deficit in goods and services decreased to $68.9 billion in April from $75.0 billion in March (revised), as imports decreased and exports increased. The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $68.9 billion in April, down $6.1 billion ...


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index Dipped to 99.6 in May
Posted: June 8, 2021 at 07:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Optimism Index fell a bit in May to 99.6, a decline of 0.2 points from April. After steadily increasing in each month of 2021, May saw a slight pause in the recovery of small business optimism. The economy is doing very well currently, and owners are scrambling to take advantage of it by hiring and investing. The first five Index components ...


Consumer Credit Increased at an annual rate of 5.30% in April
Posted: June 7, 2021 at 03:00 PM (Monday)

In April, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.3 percent. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 2.4 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 7.6 percent.

...


Employment Trends Index increased in May 2021 to 107.35
Posted: June 7, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) significantly increased in May, after an increase in April. The index now stands at 107.35, up from 104.31 (a downward revision) in the previous month. The index is currently up 39.4 percent from a year ago.

“In the past three months, the Employment Trends Index grew much faster than any other three-month period in the history of the index prior to the pandemic. This marked acceleration suggests historically strong job growth in the coming months,” said Gad Levanon, Head of The ...


New orders for manufactured goods decreased 1.3% in April 2021
Posted: June 4, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Summary
New orders for manufactured goods in April, down following eleven consecutive monthly increases, decreased $2.9 billion or 0.6 percent to $485.2 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 1.4 percent March increase. Shipments, up eleven of the last twelve months, increased $1.8 billion or 0.4 percent to $487.8 ...


May Employment rose by 559,000
Unemployment Rate declined to 5.8%

Posted: June 4, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 559,000 in May, and the unemployment rate declined by 0.3 percentage point to 5.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, in public and private education, and in health care and ...



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