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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 202310


Consumer Confidence declined moderately in October 2023 to 102.6
Posted: October 31, 2023 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined moderately in October to 102.6 (1985=100), down from an upwardly revised 104.3 in September. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—declined to 143.1 (1985=100) from 146.2. The Expectations Index—based on ...


Chicago Purchasing Managers Index fell to 44.0 in October 2023
Posted: October 31, 2023 at 09:45 AM (Tuesday)

• The Chicago Business BarometerTM, produced with MNI fell -0.1 points to 44.0 in October from 44.1 in September. It remains below the 48.7 level seen in August but broadly in line with the 2023 average of 44.2.
• Production was the largest downside driver, while supplier deliveries and order backlogs also contributed. New orders and ...


S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices increase 0.4% in August 2023
Posted: October 31, 2023 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for August 2023 show that 13 of the 20 major metro markets reported month-over-month price increases.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR ...


Employment Cost Index up 1.1% in 3Q2023
Posted: October 31, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 1.1 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in September 2023, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries increased 1.2 percent and benefit costs increased 0.9 percent from ...


Paychex-IHS Markit Small Business Jobs Index declined to 98.77 in October 2023
Posted: October 31, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

According to the Paychex | IHS Markit Small Business Employment Watch, job growth across the U.S. remains moderate but is growing at a slower rate than a year ago. Meanwhile, growth in hourly and weekly earnings decelerated in October, consistent with recent trends. Hourly earnings growth is below four percent (3.56%) for the ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity continued in October 2023
Posted: October 30, 2023 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Growth in Texas factory activity continued in October, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, posted a second positive reading after four months in negative territory. It edged down to 5.2, a reading that signals a modest pace ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence fell in October 2023 to 63.8
Posted: October 27, 2023 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer sentiment fell back about 6% this October after inching down slightly for two consecutive months, according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

One-year expected business conditions plunged 16% and expectations over consumers’ own personal finances in the year ahead fell 8%, reflecting ongoing concerns about inflation and, to a lesser degree, uncertainty over the implications of negative news both domestically and ...


Personal Income Increased 0.4%, Spending Increased 0.7% in September 2023
Posted: October 27, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Personal income increased $77.8 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in September, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (table 2 and table 3). Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $56.1 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Continued to Decline in October 2023
Posted: October 26, 2023 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity continued to decline in October, and expectations for future activity stayed mostly flat. District firms’ finished product prices stayed steady this month, and the raw materials prices declined slightly for the first time since 2020. Going forward, firms expect both finished product and raw materials prices ...


Pending Home Sales up 1.1% in September 2023
Posted: October 26, 2023 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Pending home sales augmented 1.1% in September, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The Northeast, Midwest and South posted monthly gains in transactions while the West experienced a loss. All four U.S. regions had year-over-year declines in transactions.

"Despite the slight gain, pending contracts remain at historically low levels due to the highest mortgage rates in 20 years," said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist. "Furthermore, inventory remains tight, which hinders sales but keeps home prices elevated." ...


3Q2023 GDP advance estimate increased 4.9%
Posted: October 26, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.9 percent in the third quarter of 2023 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 2.1 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject ...


September 2023 New Orders for Durable Goods increased 4.7%, Ex-Trans up 0.5%
Posted: October 26, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in September, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, increased $13.2 billion or 4.7 percent to $297.2 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 0.1 percent August decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.5 percent. Excluding defense, new ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase 10,000 to 210,000
Posted: October 26, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending October 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 210,000, an increase of
10,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 198,000 to
200,000. The 4-week moving average was 207,500, an increase of 1,250 from the previous week's revised ...


New Home Sales in September 2023 at annual rate of 759,000
Posted: October 25, 2023 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

New Home Sales
Sales of new single‐family houses in September 2023 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 759,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 12.3 percent (±16.6 percent)* above the revised August rate of 676,000 and is 33.9 ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: October 25, 2023 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 1.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 20, 2023.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 2 ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity edged down to 3 in October 2023
Posted: October 24, 2023 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity changed little in October, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index edged down from 5 in September to 3 in October. Of its three component indexes, shipments edged up from 7 to 9, new orders fell from 3 to −4, and employment remained at ...


Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Survey suggest activity remained weak overall in October 2023
Posted: October 24, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Nonmanufacturing activity in the region remained weak overall, according to the firms responding to the October Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's current indicators for general activity at the firm level and for sales/revenues edged up but remained negative. Meanwhile, the index for new orders fell further into ...


Chicago Fed National Activity Index Suggests economic growth near historical trend in September 2023
Posted: October 23, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to +0.02 in September from –0.22 in August. All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index increased from August, and two categories made positive contributions in September. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved up to a neutral value in ...


Existing-Home Sales fell 2.0% in September 2023
Posted: October 19, 2023 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Existing-home sales faded in September, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Among the four major U.S. regions, sales rose in the Northeast but receded in the Midwest, South and West. All four regions registered year-over-year sales declines.

Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – waned 2.0% from August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.96 million in September. Year-over-year, sales dropped 15.4% (down from 4.68 million in ...


U.S. Leading Economic Index declined by 0.7% in September 2023
Posted: October 19, 2023 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined by 0.7 percent in September 2023 to 104.6 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.5 percent in August. The LEI is down 3.4 percent over the six-month period between March and September 2023, an improvement from its 4.6 percent contraction over the previous six months ...


Philadelphia Fed Mfg Outlook Activity was mixed in October 2023
Posted: October 19, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Manufacturing activity in the region was mixed this month, according to the firms responding to the October Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's indicator for general activity remained negative, while the indicators for new orders and shipments were positive but low. The employment index turned positive, and both price ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease 13,000 to 198,000
Posted: October 19, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending October 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 198,000, a decrease of
13,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 209,000 to
211,000. The 4-week moving average was 205,750, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's revised ...


Treasury International Capital Data for August 2023
Posted: October 18, 2023 at 04:00 PM (Wednesday)

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for August 2023. The sum total in August of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a net TIC inflow of $134.4 billion. Of this, net foreign private inflows were $140.9 billion, and ...


Beige Book: Economic Activity indicated little to no change since the September report
Posted: October 18, 2023 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Overall Economic Activity
Most Districts indicated little to no change in economic activity since the September report. Consumer spending was mixed, especially among general retailers and auto dealers, due to differences in prices and product offerings. Tourism activity continued to improve, although some Districts reported slight slowing ...


September 2023 Housing Starts Increased 7.0%, Permits down 4.4%
Posted: October 18, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Building Permits
Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,473,000. This is 4.4 percent below the revised August rate of 1,541,000 and is 7.2 percent below the September 2022 rate of 1,588,000. Single‐family authorizations in September were at a rate of 965,000; this ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: October 18, 2023 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 6.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 13, 2023.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 6.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 7 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 10 ...


NAHB Builder Confidence fell 4 points to 40 in October 2023
Posted: October 17, 2023 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Stubbornly high mortgage rates that have climbed to a 23-year high and have remained above 7% for the past two months continue to take a heavy toll on builder confidence, as sentiment levels have dropped to the lowest point since January 2023.

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes in October fell four points to 40 from a downwardly revised September reading, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. This is ...


Business Inventories up 0.4% in August 2023
Posted: October 17, 2023 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for August, adjusted for seasonal and trading day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,857.2 billion, up 1.3 percent (±0.2 percent) from July 2023 and was up 0.2 percent (±0.3 percent)* from ...


September 2023 Industrial Production increased 0.3%, Capacity Utilization moved up to 79.7%
Posted: October 17, 2023 at 09:15 AM (Tuesday)

Industrial production increased 0.3 percent in September and advanced at an annual rate of 2.5 percent in the third quarter. Manufacturing output rose 0.4 percent in September, the index for mining moved up 0.4 percent, and the index for utilities decreased 0.3 percent. At 103.6 percent of its 2017 average, total industrial production in ...


U.S. Retail Sales for September 2023 up 0.7%, Ex-Auto up 0.6%
Posted: October 17, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for September 2023, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $704.9 billion, up 0.7 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 3.8 percent (±0.7 percent) above September 2022. Total sales for the July 2023 ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions edged lower in October 2023
Posted: October 16, 2023 at 08:39 AM (Monday)

Business activity edged lower in New York State, according to firms responding to the October 2023 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell seven points to -4.6. New orders fell slightly, while shipments were little changed. Unfilled orders declined, and delivery times shortened. Inventories ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Preliminary October 2023 Results down to 63.0
Posted: October 13, 2023 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer sentiment fell back about 7% this October following two consecutive months of very little change. Assessments of personal finances declined about 15%, primarily on a substantial increase in concerns over inflation, and one-year expected business conditions plunged about 19%. However, long-run expected business conditions are ...


U.S. Import Price Index up 0.1 percent in September
Posted: October 13, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Prices for U.S. imports ticked up 0.1 percent in September following a 0.6-percent advance the previous month, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Higher fuel prices drove the September increase. U.S. export prices rose 0.7 percent in September, after advancing 1.1 percent ...


Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in September, Ex Fd & Engy up 0.3%
Posted: October 12, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in September on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.6 percent in August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.7 percent before ...


Real Average Hourly Earnings decreased 0.2% in September 2023
Posted: October 12, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

All employees

Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.2 percent from August to September, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from an increase of 0.2 percent in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims unchanged at 209,000
Posted: October 12, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending October 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 209,000, unchanged from the
previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 207,000 to 209,000. The 4-week
moving average was 206,250, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's revised average. The ...


Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine Index fell in September 2023 to 155.4
Posted: October 11, 2023 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

The Conference Board−Lightcast Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Index fell in September to 155.4 (July 2018=100), down from an upwardly revised 161.8 in August. The 4.0 percent decrease between September and August follows a 7.7 percent increase between August and September. Overall, the Index is down 6.2 percent from one ...


Producer Price Index increased 0.5% in September 2023, ex Fd & Engy up 0.1%
Posted: October 11, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.5 percent in September, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices rose 0.7 percent in August and 0.6 percent in July. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand advanced 2.2 percent for the 12 months ended in ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: October 11, 2023 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 0.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 6, 2023.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 0.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 1 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 0.3 ...


Wholesale Inventories down 0.2% in August 2023
Posted: October 10, 2023 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

August 2023 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading day differences but not for price changes, were $662.3 billion, up 1.8 percent (±0.5 percent) from the revised July level, but were down 1.7 percent (±0.7 percent) from the revised August 2022 level. ...


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index decreased to 90.8 in September 2023
Posted: October 10, 2023 at 07:00 AM (Tuesday)

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index decreased half of a point in September to 90.8. September’s reading marks the 21st consecutive month below the 49-year average of 98. Twenty-three percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business, unchanged from last month and tied with ...


Employment Trends Index increased in September 2023 to 114.66
Posted: October 9, 2023 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased in September to 114.66, from an upwardly revised 114.16 in August. The ETI is a leading composite index for employment. When the Index increases, employment is likely to grow as well, and vice versa. Turning points in the Index indicate that a change in the trend of job gains or ...


Consumer Credit Decreased at an annual rate of 3.8% in August 2023
Posted: October 6, 2023 at 03:00 PM (Friday)

In August, consumer credit decreased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.8 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 13.9 percent, while nonrevolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 9.8 percent.

...


September 2023 Employment rose by 336,000
Unemployment Rate stays at 3.8%

Posted: October 6, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 336,000 in September, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality; government; health care; professional, scientific, and technical services; and ...


Goods and Services Deficit decreased in August 2023
Posted: October 5, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $58.3 billion in August, down $6.4 billion from $64.7 billion in July, revised.

Exports, Imports, and Balance
August exports were $256.0 billion, $4.1 billion more than July exports. August imports were $314.3 billion, $2.3 billion less than July imports. ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase 2,000 to 207,000
Posted: October 5, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending September 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 207,000, an increase of
2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 204,000 to
205,000. The 4-week moving average was 208,750, a decrease of 2,500 from the previous week's revised ...


Challenger Layoffs announced 47,457 Job Cuts in Sept. 2023
Posted: October 5, 2023 at 07:30 AM (Thursday)

U.S.-based employers announced 47,457 cuts in September, down 37% from the 75,151 cuts announced in August. It is up 58% from the 29,989 announced in the same month one year prior, according to a report released Thursday from global outplacement and business and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.
Despite the ...


New orders for manufactured goods increased 1.2% in August 2023
Posted: October 4, 2023 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Summary
New orders for manufactured goods in August, up five of the last six months, increased $6.7 billion or 1.2 percent to $586.1 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 2.1 percent July decrease. Shipments, up four consecutive months, increased $7.7 billion or 1.3 percent to $586.0 billion. This followed a 0.7 ...


ISM Non-Manufacturing Index decrease to 53.6% in September 2023
Posted: October 4, 2023 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Economic activity in the services sector expanded in September for the ninth consecutive month as the Services PMI® registered 53.6 percent, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM® Report On Business®. The sector has grown in 39 of the last 40 months, with the lone contraction in ...


ADP National Employment Report Increased by 89,000 jobs in September 2023
Posted: October 4, 2023 at 08:15 AM (Wednesday)

Private sector employment increased by 89,000 jobs in September and annual pay was up 5.9 percent year-over-year, according to the September ADP® National Employment ReportTM produced by the ADP Research Institute ® in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab (“Stanford ...



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