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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 202102


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence was slightly lower in February to 76.2
Posted: February 26, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Despite a small gain in late February, consumer sentiment was slightly lower for the entire month than in January. All of February's loss was due to households with incomes below $75,000, with the declines mainly concentrated in future economic prospects. The worst of the pandemic may be nearing its end, but few consumers anticipate the type ...


Chicago Purchasing Managers Index fell 4.3 points to 59.5 in February
Posted: February 26, 2021 at 09:45 AM (Friday)

The Chicago Business BarometerTM, produced with MNI, fell 4.3 points to 59.5 in February. The downtick comes after a sharp increase in the previous month, when the index rose to a 2.5-year high.

Among the main five indicators, New Orders saw the largest monthly decline, followed by Production. Employment recorded the biggest gain. ...


Personal Income increased 10.0%, Spending increased 2.4% in January 2021
Posted: February 26, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Personal income increased $1,954.7 billion (10.0 percent) in January according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 3 and 5). Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $1,963.2 billion (11.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $340.9 billion (2.4 percent). p>Real DPI increased ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity climbed higher in February
Posted: February 25, 2021 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity climbed higher in February compared to a month ago and a year ago, and expectations for future activity increased. Prices paid for raw materials continued to increase, reaching the second highest pace of growth in survey history. Prices for finished goods also grew more from a month ago and a year ...


Pending Home Sales Index dropped 2.8% in January
Posted: February 25, 2021 at 10:03 AM (Thursday)

Pending home sales took a step backward in January as inventory constraints continue to hold back prospective buyers, according to the National Association of Realtors®. The South was the lone region with a modest gain from the month prior, while the other three major U.S. regions experienced month-over-month decreases in January. However, ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease 111,000 to 730,000
Posted: February 25, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending February 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 730,000, a decrease of 111,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 20,000 from 861,000 to 841,000. The 4-week moving average was 807,750, a decrease of 20,500 from the previous week's revised average. ...


January 2021 New Orders for Durable Goods Increased 3.4%, Ex-Trans up 1.4%
Posted: February 25, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in January increased $8.5 billion or 3.4 percent to $256.6 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up nine consecutive months, followed a 1.2 percent December increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.4 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased ...


4Q2020 GDP preliminary estimate increased 4.1%
Posted: February 25, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2020 (table 1), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 33.4 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available ...


New Home Sales in January 2021 at annual rate of 923,000
Posted: February 24, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

New Home Sales
Sales of new single-family houses in January 2021 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 923,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 4.3 percent (±18.1 percent)* above the revised December rate of 885,000 and is 19.3 ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: February 24, 2021 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 11.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 19, 2021.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 11.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 10 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 11 ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity Index held steady at 14 in February 2021
Posted: February 23, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Fifth District manufacturing activity continued to improve in February, according to the most recent survey from the Richmond Fed. The composite index held steady from January to February, at 14, as all three component indexes — shipments, new orders, and employment — remained firmly positive. The index for vendor lead time, which hit ...


Consumer Confidence improved again in February 2021 to 91.3
Posted: February 23, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® improved again in February, after increasing in January. The Index now stands at 91.3 (1985=100), up from 88.9 in January. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—climbed from 85.5 to 92.0. However, the Expectations Index—based ...


S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices increase 0.9% in December 2020
Posted: February 23, 2021 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today releases the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for December 2020 show that home prices continue to increase across the U.S.

Please note that transaction records for October 2020 and November 2020 for Wayne County, MI, are now available. Due to delays at the local recording office caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, S&P DJI and CoreLogic were previously unable to generate valid October 2020 and ...


Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Survey indicated improved conditions in February 2021
Posted: February 23, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Firms responding to the February Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey indicated improved conditions in business activity. The indexes for general activity at the firm level, sales/revenues, and new orders all posted increases for the month, with the former two indexes rising into low positive territory. Additionally, the survey's indexes ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity Expands at a Faster Pace in February
Posted: February 22, 2021 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity expanded at a markedly faster pace in February, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, surged 15 points to 19.9, indicating a sharp acceleration in ...


U.S. Leading Economic Index increased 0.5% in January
Posted: February 22, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.5 percent in January to 110.3 (2016 = 100), following a 0.4 percent increase in December and a 0.9 percent increase in November.

“While the pace of increase in the U.S. LEI has slowed since mid-2020, January’s gains were broad-based and suggest economic growth should improve gradually over the first half of 2021,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. ...


Chicago Fed National Activity Index suggests economic growth increased in January
Posted: February 22, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Led by improvements in personal consumption-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to +0.66 in January from +0.41 in December. All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in January, but three categories decreased from December. The index’s ...


Existing-Home Sales increased 0.6% in January
Posted: February 19, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Existing-home sales rose in January, marking two consecutive months of growth, according to the National Association of Realtors®. From a month-over-month perspective, buying activity varied in the major regions. Year-over-year, all four areas recorded double-digit gains ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase 13,000 to 861,000
Posted: February 18, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending February 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 861,000, an increase of 13,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 55,000 from 793,000 to 848,000. The 4-week moving average was 833,250, a decrease of 3,500 from the previous week's revised average. ...


U.S. Import Price Index increased 1.4% in January 2021
Posted: February 18, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Prices for U.S. imports increased 1.4 percent in January, after rising 1.0 percent in December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The January advance was the largest 1-month rise since the index increased 1.4 percent in March 2012. U.S. export prices increased 2.5 percent in January following advances of 1.3 percent and ...


Philadelphia Fed Outlook Activity continued to grow in February
Posted: February 18, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Manufacturing activity in the region continued to grow, according to firms responding to the February Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's current indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments declined from January's readings but remained elevated. Additionally, employment increases were more widespread this month. ...


January Housing Starts Decreased 6.0%, Permits up 10.4%
Posted: February 18, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Building Permits
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,881,000. This is 10.4 percent (±1.2 percent) above the revised December rate of 1,704,000 and is 22.5 percent (±1.8 percent) above the January 2020 rate of 1,536,000. Single-family authorizations in January ...


Business Inventories up 0.6% in December
Posted: February 17, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for December, adjusted for seasonal and trading day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,494.2 billion, up 0.8 percent (±0.2 percent) from November 2020 and was up 2.5 percent (±0.4 percent) from ...


NAHB Builder Confidence inched up one point to 84 in February
Posted: February 17, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Strong buyer demand helped offset supply chain challenges and a surge in lumber prices as builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes inched up one point to 84 in February, according to the latest National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) ...


ISM Manufacturing Index decreased to 60.6% in June 2021
Posted: February 17, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector grew in June, with the overall economy notching a 13th consecutive month of growth, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: ...


Industrial Production increased 0.9%
Capacity Utilization increased to 75.6%

Posted: February 17, 2021 at 09:15 AM (Wednesday)

Industrial production increased 0.9 percent in January. Manufacturing output rose 1.0 percent, about the same as its average gain over the previous five months. Mining production advanced 2.3 percent, while the output of utilities declined 1.2 percent. At 107.2 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production in January was 1.8 ...


Producer Price Index rose 1.3% in January, ex Fd & Engy up 0.8%
Posted: February 17, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 1.3 percent in January, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This advance is the largest since the index began in December 2009. Final demand prices rose 0.3 percent in December and 0.1 percent in November. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final ...


U.S. Retail Sales for January 2021 Increased 5.3%, Ex-Auto up 5.9%
Posted: February 17, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for January 2021, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $568.2 billion, an increase of 5.3 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and 7.4 percent (±0.7 percent) above January 2020. Total sales for the November ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: February 17, 2021 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 5.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 12, 2021.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 5.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 4 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 5 ...


Treasury International Capital Data for December 2020
Posted: February 16, 2021 at 04:00 PM (Tuesday)

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for December 2020. The sum total in December of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a net TIC outflow of $0.6 billion. Of this, net foreign private inflows were $25.5 billion, and ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions grew modestly in February 2021
Posted: February 16, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Business activity grew modestly in New York State, according to firms responding to the February 2021 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index climbed nine points to 12.1, its highest level in several months. New orders increased, and shipments edged higher. Delivery times lengthened, and inventories ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Preliminary February Results edged downward to 76.2
Posted: February 12, 2021 at 10:00 PM (Friday)

Consumer sentiment edged downward in early February, with the entire loss concentrated in the Expectation Index and among households with incomes below $75,000. Households with incomes in the bottom third reported significant setbacks in their current finances, with fewer of these households mentioning recent income gains than anytime since ...


Philadelphia Fed Survey of Forecasters see Stronger Economic Rebound with Lower Unemployment
Posted: February 12, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The outlook for the U.S. economy over the next three years looks stronger now than it did three months ago, according to 39 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The panel predicts real GDP will grow at an annual rate of 3.2 percent this quarter, unchanged from the prediction in the last survey. However, over ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease 19,000 to 793,000
Posted: February 11, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending February 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 793,000, a decrease of 19,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 33,000 from 779,000 to 812,000. The 4-week moving average was 823,000, a decrease of 33,500 from the previous week's revised average. ...


Wholesale Inventories up 0.3% in December 2020
Posted: February 10, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

December 2020 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading day differences but not for price changes, were $503.8 billion, up 1.2 percent (±0.4 percent) from the revised November level and were up 1.7 percent (±1.2 percent) from the revised December ...


Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine Index rose in January to 101.1
Posted: February 10, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

The Conference Board®-Burning Glass® Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Index rose in January and now stands at 101.1 (July 2018=100), up from 98.2 in December. The Index declined 3.7 percent from November to December and is down 7.7 percent from a year ago.

The Help Wanted OnLine® Index is produced in collaboration with Burning Glass Technologies, the global pioneer in real-time labor market data and analysis. This recent collaboration enhances the Help Wanted OnLine® program by providing additional insights into important ...


Consumer Price Index increased 0.3% in January, Ex Fd & Engy unch%
Posted: February 10, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The gasoline index continued to increase, rising 7.4 percent in January and accounting for most of the seasonally adjusted increase in the all items index. Although the indexes for electricity and natural gas declined, the energy index rose 3.5 percent over the month. The ...


Real Average Hourly Earnings increased 0.1% in January 2021
Posted: February 10, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

All employees
Real average hourly earnings for all employees were unchanged from December to January, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from an increase of 0.2 percent in average hourly earnings being offset by an increase of 0.3 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: February 10, 2021 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 4.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 5, 2021.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 4.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 4 ...


Job Openings little changed at 6.6 million in December
Posted: February 9, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The number of job openings was little changed at 6.6 million on the last business day of December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires decreased to 5.5 million while total separations were little changed at 5.5 million. Within separations, the quits rate and layoffs and discharges rate were little changed at 2.3 percent ...


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined to 95.0 in January
Posted: February 9, 2021 at 07:00 AM (Tuesday)

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined in January to 95.0, down 0.9 from December and three points below the 47-year average of 98. Owners expecting better business conditions over the next six months declined seven points to a net negative 23%, the lowest level since November 2013. The net percent of owners expecting better ...


Employment Trends Index increased in January to 99.27
Posted: February 8, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased in January, the ninth consecutive monthly increase since May of last year. The index now stands at 99.27, up from 98.55 (a downward revision) in December. The index is currently down 10.0 percent from a year ago.

“The Employment Trends Index has been increasing in recent months, with the largest contributing component being the number of jobs in the temporary help industry. Over the next few months, expect some uncertainty around job growth, especially if some potentially adverse ...


Consumer Credit Increased at an annual rate of 2.80% in December
Posted: February 5, 2021 at 03:00 PM (Friday)

In 2020, revolving credit decreased 11.2 percent and nonrevolving credit increased 3.9 percent, leaving total consumer credit little changed. Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.7 percent in the fourth quarter and at a rate of 2.8 percent ...


January Employment increased by 49,000
Unemployment Rate declined to 6.3%

Posted: February 5, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The unemployment rate fell by 0.4 percentage point to 6.3 percent in January, while nonfarm payroll employment changed little (+49,000), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The labor market continued to reflect the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. In January, notable job gains in ...


Goods and Services Deficit Increased in December 2020
Posted: February 5, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The nation's international trade deficit in goods and services decreased to $66.6 billion in December from $69.0 billion in November (revised), as exports increased more than imports. The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $66.6 billion in December, down $2.4 ...


New orders for manufactured goods increased 0.2% in December 2020
Posted: February 4, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in December increased $0.4 billion or 0.2 percent to $245.3 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up eight consecutive months, followed a 1.2 percent November increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.7 percent. Excluding defense, new orders ...


4Q2020 Productivity Growth decreased 4.8%
Posted: February 4, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity decreased 4.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2020, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output increased 5.3 percent and hours worked increased 10.7 percent. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates, and show what the percent change would ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 33,000 to 779,000
Posted: February 4, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending January 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 779,000, a decrease of 33,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 35,000 from 847,000 to 812,000. The 4-week moving average was 848,250, a decrease of 1,250 from the previous week's revised average. ...


Challenger Layoffs announced 79,552 Job Cuts in January 2021
Posted: February 4, 2021 at 07:30 AM (Thursday)

Planned job cuts announced by U.S.-based companies rose 3.3%, to 79,552, in January from 77,030 in December, according to a report released Thursday by global outplacement and business and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. January's total is 17.4% higher than the 67,735 cuts announced in the same month last year. It is ...


ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 58.7% in January
Posted: February 3, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Economic activity in the services sector grew in January for the eighth month in a row, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Services Business Survey Committee: “The Services PMI® registered 58.7 percent, 1 percentage point higher than the seasonally adjusted December ...



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