The entire October rebound was due to gains in confidence among lower income households, while confidence among households with incomes in the top third of the income distribution retreated a bit due to concerns about volatile financial markets. Overall, the Sentiment Index has been higher in 2015 than in any year since 2004. Importantly, ...

The Chicago Business Barometer increased 7.5 points to 56.2 in October from 48.7 in September, led by strong gains in both Production and New Orders.

The sharp increase in the Barometer pushed it to the highest since January and marks a promising start to the fourth quarter, building on the small gain made in Q3. Production led the latest increase, jumping just under 20 points to 63.4, while New Orders also rose sharply, ...

Personal income increased $18.6 billion, or 0.1 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $19.2 billion, or 0.1 percent, in September, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $15.6 billion, or 0.1 percent. In August, personal income increased $54.9 billion, or 0.4 percent, ...

Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.6 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in September 2015, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries (which make up about 70 percent of compensation costs) increased 0.6 percent, and benefits (which make up the remaining 30 percent ...

Pending home sales cooled in September for the second straight month and to their second lowest index reading in 2015, according to the National Association of Realtors®. All four major regions experienced a pullback in activity in September.

The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward–looking indicator based on contract signings, declined 2.3 percent to 106.8 in September from a slightly downwardly revised 109.3 in August but is still 3.0 percent above September 2014 (103.7). With last month's decline, the index ...

For the week ending October 17 2015, the BTMU U.S. Business Barometer remained flat at 97.6 as the gains in some indexes were completely offset by losses in others. MBA’s purchase index, for instance, surged 16.4 percent after plummeting by 34.1 percent in the previous week. But that gain was offset by losses in chain store sales and ...

Real gross domestic product -- the value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production, adjusted for price changes -- increased at an annual rate of 1.5 percent in the third quarter of 2015, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic ...

In the week ending October 24, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 260,000, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 259,000. The 4-week moving average was 259,250, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 263,250. This is the lowest level for this average since ...

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September suggests that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Household spending and business fixed investment have been increasing at solid rates in recent months, and the housing sector has improved further; however, net exports have been soft. The pace ...

Mortgage applications decreased 3.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 23, 2015. The previous week's results included an adjustment for the Columbus ...

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had increased moderately in September, declined in October. The Index now stands at 97.6 (1985=100), down from 102.6 in September. The Present Situation Index decreased from 120.3 last month to 112.1 in October, while the Expectations Index edged down to 88.0 from 90.8 in ...

Fifth District manufacturing activity remained soft in October, according to the most recent survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Order backlogs and shipments declined, while new orders leveled off. Manufacturing employment remained soft, growing at the same pace as a month ago. The average workweek shortened and average wages ...

S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for August 2015 show that home prices continued their rise across the country over the last 12 months.

Year-over-Year
The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, recorded a slightly higher year-over-year gain with a 4.7% annual increase in August 2015 versus a 4.6% increase in July 2015. The 10-City Composite increased 4.7% ...

New orders for manufactured durable goods in September decreased $2.9 billion or 1.2 percent to $231.1 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down two consecutive months, followed a 3.0 percent August decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.4 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 2.0 ...

Texas factory activity increased in October after nine months of flat or declining output, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose to 4.8, marking the first month of output growth ...

Sales of new single-family houses in September 2015 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 468,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 11.5 percent (±11.3%) below the revised August rate of 529,000, but is 2.0 percent (±17.9%)* above ...

Tenth District manufacturing activity steadied somewhat, and expectations for future activity were largely flat following last month’s more negative reading. Most price indexes edged higher for the first time in several months.

The month-over-month composite index was -1 in October, up from -8 in September and -9 in August. The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. Most of the improvement came from ...

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined 0.2 percent in September to 123.3 (2010 = 100). The Index was unchanged in August and July.

“Despite September’s decline, the U.S. LEI still suggests economic expansion will continue, although at a moderate pace,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “The recent weakness in stock markets, the ...

Existing–home sales rebounded strongly in September following August's decline and have now increased year–over–year for 12 consecutive months, according to the National Association of Realtors®. All four major regions experienced sales gains in September.

Total existing–home sales, which are completed transactions that include single–family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co–ops, increased 4.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.55 million in September from a slightly downwardly revised 5.30 million in ...

For the week ending October 10 2015, the BTMU U.S. Business Barometer declined by 0.5 percent to 97.8. This week’s barometer was driven by weak performance in MBA’s purchase index, which dropped sharply by 34.1 percent, following a significant gain of 27.4 percent in the prior week ( The plummet was caused by the implementation of the ...

The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to –0.09 in September from +0.01 in August. September’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was slightly below its historical trend. The economic growth reflected in this level of the CFNAI-MA3 suggests subdued inflationary pressure from economic activity ...

In the week ending October 17, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 259,000, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 255,000 to 256,000. The 4-week moving average was 263,250, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's revised average. This ...

Mortgage applications increased 11.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 16, 2015. This week's results include an adjustment to account for the Columbus Day ...

Regional nonmanufacturing activity remained positive in October, according to firms responding to this month’s Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey. Indicators for firm-level current activity, new orders, and employment improved from last month. Though readings for sales and regional activity fell, they remained positive. Responding ...

BUILDING PERMITS
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,103,000. This is 5.0 percent (±1.4%) below the revised August rate of 1,161,000, but is 4.7 percent (±2.0%) above the September 2014 estimate of 1,053,000. Single-family authorizations in September were at ...

Builder confidence in the market for newly constructed single-family homes rose three points in October to a level of 64 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). This month’s reading is a return to HMI levels seen at the end of the housing boom in ...

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for August 2015. The sum total in August of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a monthly net TIC outflow of $9.2 billion. Of this, net foreign private inflows were $37.3 billion, and ...

The number of job openings decreased to 5.4 million on the last business day of August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The number of hires and separations was little changed at 5.1 million and 4.8 million, respectively. Within separations, the quits rate was 1.9 percent for the fifth month in a row, and the layoffs ...

Industrial production decreased 0.2 percent in September after edging down 0.1 percent in August. The decline in August is smaller than previously reported. In September, manufacturing output moved down 0.1 percent for a second consecutive monthly decrease; the index for mining fell 2.0 percent, while the index for utilities rose 1.3 percent. ...

Manufacturing conditions in the region continued to weaken in October, according to firms responding to this month’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The indicator for general activity remained negative, while the new orders and shipments indexes turned negative this month. Labor market indicators also weakened. The survey’s indicators ...

For the week ending October 3 2015, the BTMU U.S. Business Barometer picked up by 0.3 percent to 98.3, after declining for three weeks in a row. The recovery in this week’s barometer was driven by both consumption and production indexes. MBA’s purchase index rebounded by 27.4 percent, following a 5.6 percent decline in the previous week. As to ...

In the week ending October 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 255,000, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 1,000 from 263,000 to 262,000. The 4-week moving average was 265,000, a decrease of 2,250 from the previous week's revised average. This ...

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased 0.2 percent in September on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index was essentially unchanged before seasonal adjustment. The energy index fell 4.7 percent in September, with all major ...

Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.1 percent from August to September, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from essentially no change in average hourly earnings combined with a 0.2-percent decrease in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban ...

The October 2015 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that business activity declined for a third consecutive month for New York manufacturers. The headline general business conditions index edged up three points, but remained negative at -11.4. The survey indicated that new orders, shipments, and unfilled orders all declined at a ...

Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts point to continued modest expansion in economic activity during the reporting period from mid-August through early October. The pace of growth was characterized as modest in the New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Atlanta, Chicago, and St. Louis Districts, while the Minneapolis, Dallas, and ...

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that the combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for August, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,320.5 billion, down 0.6 percent (±0.2%) from July 2015 and was down 3.1 percent (±0.5%) from ...

Mortgage applications decreased 27.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 9, 2015.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 27.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 27 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 23 ...

The Producer Price Index for final demand declined 0.5 percent in September, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices were unchanged in August and rose 0.2 percent in July. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index fell 1.1 percent for the 12 months ended in September, the eighth ...

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for September, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $447.7 billion, an increase of 0.1 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month, and 2.4 percent (±0.7%) above September 2014. ...

The Index of Small Business Optimism was basically unchanged in September, rising only 0.2 points, this after an August gain of only 0.5 points. So the Index remains stuck at a below average reading of 96.1. Owners didn’t seem to be overly concerned about the antics of the stock market, as optimism did not fall. However financial markets did ...

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that August 2015 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $445.4 billion, down 1.0 percent (+/-0.7%) from the revised July level and were down 4.7 percent (+/-1.6%) ...

Prices for U.S. imports edged down 0.1 percent in September, after a 1.6-percent decrease in August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The continued downward trend in nonfuel import prices more than offset an advance in fuel prices. The price index for U.S. exports declined 0.7 percent in September, following a 1.4-percent ...

For the week ending September 26 2015, the BTMU U.S. Business Barometer declined by 0.3 percent to 98.0. This week’s barometer was driven by both consumption and production indexes. MBA’s purchase index fell by 5.6 percent, following a significant gain of 9.1 percent in the prior week. Chain store sales also dropped by 0.3 percent. As to ...

In the week ending October 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 263,000, a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 1,000 from 277,000 to 276,000. The 4-week moving average was 267,500, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's revised average. ...

In August, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5-1/2 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 5-1/4 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 5-3/4 percent.

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Mortgage applications increased 25.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 2, 2015.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 25.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 26 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 24 ...

The Nation's international trade deficit in goods and services increased to $48.3 billion in August from $41.8 billion in July (revised), as exports decreased and imports increased.

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $48.3 billion in August, up $6.5 billion from $41.8 billion in July, revised. August exports were $185.1 billion, ...

Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in September for the 68th consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The NMI® registered 56.9 percent in September, 2.1 percentage points lower than the August reading of 59 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a slower rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index decreased to 60.2 percent, ...

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased slightly in September. The index now stands at 128.76, up from 128.66 in August (a downward revision). The change represents a 4.6 percent gain in the ETI compared to a year ago.

While Friday’s job report was a disappointment, and the trend in job growth is probably slower than in the last couple of years, the Employment Trends Index does not suggest a negative shock will impact the labor market any time soon. Slower job growth is more in line with ...