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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 201908



University of Michigan Consumer Confidence decreased in August to 89.8
Posted: August 30, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The Consumer Sentiment Index posted its largest monthly decline in August 2019 (-8.6 points) since December 2012 (-9.8 points), according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

The 2012 plunge reflected widespread fears among consumers that they would be pushed off the “fiscal cliff” due to rising taxes and falling government spending, said U-M economist Richard Curtin, director of the surveys. ...


Chicago Purchasing Managers Index rose 6.0 points to 50.4 in August
Posted: August 30, 2019 at 09:45 AM (Friday)

The Chicago Business BarometerTM, produced with MNI, rose 6.0 points to 50.4 in August, up from 44.4 in July. The index had been in contractionary territory for two months before this month’s gain.

Only two of the Business Activity components saw a monthly decline, as Supplier Deliveries saw a sharp fall, dropping to 50.3 from July’s 55.6. ...


Personal Income increased 0.1%, Spending increased 0.6%
Posted: August 30, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Personal income increased $23.9 billion (0.1 percent) in July according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $44.4 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $93.1 billion ...


Pending Home Sales Index Rose 2.5% in July
Posted: August 29, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Existing-home sales strengthened in July, a positive reversal after total sales were down slightly in the previous month, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Although Northeast transactions declined, the other three major U.S. regions recorded sales increases, including vast growth in the West ...


2Q2019 GDP preliminary estimate increased 2.0%
Posted: August 29, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent in the second quarter of 2019, according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.1 percent. The revision primarily reflected downward revisions to state and local ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 4,000 to 215,000
Posted: August 29, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending August 24, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 215,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 209,000 to 211,000. The 4-week moving average was 214,500, a decrease of 500 from the previous week's revised average. The ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: August 28, 2019 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 6.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 23, 2019.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 6.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 7 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 8 ...


Consumer Confidence dipped in August to 135.1
Posted: August 27, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined marginally in August, following July’s rebound. The Index now stands at 135.1 (1985=100), down from 135.8 in July. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions – increased from 170.9 to 177.2. The Expectations Index – based ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity Index rose from −12 to 1 in August
Posted: August 27, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity was moderate in August, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite index rose from −12 in July to 1 in August, buoyed by increases in the indexes for shipments and new orders. However, the third component, employment, fell. Firms reported increasing ...


S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Increased 0.6% in June
Posted: August 27, 2019 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for June 2019 shows that the rate of home price increases across the U.S. continues to slow.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 3.1% annual gain in June, down from 3.3% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 1.8%, down from 2.2% in the ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity Expansion Picks Up Pace in August
Posted: August 26, 2019 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity expanded at a faster clip in August, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, shot up nine points to 17.9, its highest reading in nearly ...


July New Orders for Durable Goods increased 2.1%, Ex-Trans down 0.4%
Posted: August 26, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in July increased $5.0 billion or 2.1 percent to $250.4 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up two consecutive months, followed a 1.8 percent June increase. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.4 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased ...


Chicago Fed National Activity points to slower economic growth in July
Posted: August 26, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to –0.36 in July from +0.03 in June. All four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from June, and all four categories made negative contributions to the index in July. The index’s three-month moving average, ...


New Home Sales in July at annual rate of 635,000
Posted: August 23, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

New Home Sales
Sales of new single‐family houses in July 2019 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 635,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 12.8 percent (±16.2 percent)* below the revised June rate of 728,000, but is 4.3 percent ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity declined in August
Posted: August 22, 2019 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity declined in August, while expectations for future activity edged higher (Chart 1). The month-over-month price indexes for raw materials and finished products decreased, turning negative for the first time since 2016. Firms continued to expect prices to rise over the next 6 ...


U.S. Leading Economic Index increased 0.5% in July
Posted: August 22, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.5 percent in July to 112.2 (2016 = 100), following a 0.1 percent decline in June, and a 0.1 percent decline in May.

“The US LEI increased in July, following back-to-back modest declines. Housing permits, unemployment insurance claims, stock prices and the Leading Credit Index were the major drivers of the improvement,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 12,000 to 209,000
Posted: August 22, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending August 17, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 209,000, a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 220,000 to 221,000. The 4-week moving average was 214,500, an increase of 500 from the previous week's revised average. The ...


Existing-Home Sales rose 2.5% in July
Posted: August 21, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Existing-home sales strengthened in July, a positive reversal after total sales were down slightly in the previous month, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Although Northeast transactions declined, the other three major U.S. regions recorded sales increases, including vast growth in the West ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: August 21, 2019 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 0.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 16, 2019.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 0.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 0.4 ...


Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Survey Suggest Activity Continued to Grow in August
Posted: August 20, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Responses to the August Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest continued expansion in nonmanufacturing activity in the region. The indexes for general activity at the firm level and sales/revenues both increased, while the new orders index fell. The index for full-time employment ticked upward. Survey responses indicated ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Preliminary August Results declined to 92.1
Posted: August 16, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer sentiment declined in early August to its lowest level since the start of the year. The early August losses spanned all Index components. Although the Expectations Index recorded more than twice the decline in August as the Current Conditions Index (-8.2 versus -3.3), the Current Conditions Index fell to its lowest level since late ...


July Housing Starts decreased 4.0%, Permits up 8.4%
Posted: August 16, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Building Permits
Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,336,000. This is 8.4 percent (±1.1 percent) above the revised June rate of 1,232,000 and is 1.5 percent (±1.4 percent) above the July 2018 rate of 1,316,000. Single‐family authorizations in July were at a rate ...


Treasury International Capital Data for June 2019
Posted: August 15, 2019 at 04:00 PM (Thursday)

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for June 2019. The sum total in June of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a net TIC inflow of $1.7 billion. Of this, net foreign private inflows were $6.1 billion, and net ...


NAHB Builder Confidence rose one point to 66 in August
Posted: August 15, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes rose one point to 66 in August, according to the latest NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. Sentiment levels have held at a solid 64-to-66 level for the past four months.

“Even as builders report a firm demand for single-family homes, they continue to struggle with rising construction costs stemming from excessive regulations, a chronic shortage of workers and a lack of buildable lots,” said NAHB Chairman Greg Ugalde. ...


Business Inventories unch% in June
Posted: August 15, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for June, adjusted for seasonal and trading day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,460.1 billion, up 0.1 percent (±0.2 percent)* from May 2019 and was up 1.3 percent (±0.4 percent) from ...


Industrial Production declined 0.2%
Capacity Utilization increased to 77.5%

Posted: August 15, 2019 at 09:15 AM (Thursday)

Industrial production declined 0.2 percent in July. Manufacturing output decreased 0.4 percent last month and has fallen more than 1-1/2 percent since December 2018. In July, mining output fell 1.8 percent, as Hurricane Barry caused a sharp but temporary decline in oil extraction in the Gulf of Mexico. The index for utilities rose 3.1 percent. ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 9,000 to 220,000
Posted: August 15, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending August 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 220,000, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 209,000 to 211,000. The 4-week moving average was 213,750, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's revised average. ...


2Q2019 Productivity Growth Increased 2.3%
Posted: August 15, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 2.3 percent in the second quarter of 2019, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output increased 1.9 percent and hours worked decreased 0.4 percent. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates.) From the second quarter of 2018 to ...


U.S. Retail Sales for July Increased 0.7%, Ex-Auto up 1.0%
Posted: August 15, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July 2019, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $523.5 billion, an increase of 0.7 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and 3.4 percent (±0.7 percent) above July 2018. Total sales for the May 2019 through ...


Philadelphia Fed Outlook Reported Activity continued to grow in August
Posted: August 15, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Manufacturing activity in the region continued to grow, according to results from the August Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's broad indicators remained positive, although their movements were mixed this month: The general activity, shipments, and employment indicators decreased from their readings last month, but the ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions grew modestly in August
Posted: August 15, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Business activity increased modestly in New York State, according to firms responding to the August 2019 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index was little changed at 4.8. New orders increased after declining for the prior two months, and shipments continued to expand. Unfilled orders fell, delivery ...


U.S. Import Price Index increased 0.2% in July
Posted: August 14, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Prices for U.S. imports increased 0.2 percent in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, following a 1.1-percent decline the previous month. In July, rising fuel prices more than offset lower nonfuel prices. The price index for U.S. exports advanced 0.2 percent in July, after falling 0.6 percent in June and 0.3 percent in ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: August 14, 2019 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 21.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 9, 2019.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 21.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 20 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 37 ...


Consumer Price Index increased 0.3% in July, Ex Fd & Engy rose 0.3%
Posted: August 13, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in July on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.1 percent in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.8 percent before ...


Real Average Hourly Earnings decreased 0.1% in July
Posted: August 13, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.1 percent from June to July, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from a 0.3-percent increase in average hourly earnings combined with a 0.3-percent increase in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban ...


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 1.4 points to 104.7 in July
Posted: August 13, 2019 at 07:00 AM (Tuesday)

Optimism among small business owners bounced back in July as expectations for business conditions, real sales, and expansion made solid gains. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 1.4 points to 104.7, with seven of 10 components advancing, two falling, and one remaining unchanged. The Uncertainty Index fell 10 points, reversing a surge ...


Forecasters See Weaker Outlook for Near-Term Growth
Posted: August 9, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The U.S. economy for the next three quarters looks slightly weaker now than it did three months ago, according to 35 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The panel predicts real GDP will grow at an annual rate of 1.8 percent this quarter, 2.0 percent next quarter, and 1.9 percent in the first quarter of 2020, ...


Producer Price Index rose 0.2% in July, ex Fd & Engy -0.1%
Posted: August 9, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The Producer Price Index for final demand advanced 0.2 percent in July, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices moved up 0.1 percent in both June and May. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index rose 1.7 percent for the 12 months ended ...


Wholesale Inventories unch% in June
Posted: August 8, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

June 2019 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading day differences but not for price changes, were $498.5 billion, down 0.3 percent (±0.4 percent)* from the revised May level and were down 0.2 percent (±1.1 percent)* from the June 2018 level. The ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 8,000 to 209,000
Posted: August 8, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending August 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 209,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 215,000 to 217,000. The 4-week moving average was 212,250, an increase of 250 from the previous week's revised average. The ...


Consumer Credit Increased at an annual rate of 4.25% in June
Posted: August 7, 2019 at 03:00 PM (Wednesday)

Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5 percent during the second quarter. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 5-1/4 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 4-3/4 percent. In June, consumer credit increased at an annual rate of ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: August 7, 2019 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 5.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 2, 2019.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 5.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 5 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 12 ...


Job Openings little changed at 7.3 million in June
Posted: August 6, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The number of job openings was little changed at 7.3 million on the last business day of June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.5 million, respectively. Within separations, the quits rate was unchanged at 2.3 percent, and the layoffs and ...


ISM Non-Manufacturing Index slowed to 53.7% in July
Posted: August 5, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in July for the 114th consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “The NMI® registered 53.7 percent, which is 1.4 percentage points lower than the June reading of 55.1 ...


Employment Trends Index increased in July to 110.98
Posted: August 5, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased in July, following a decline in June. The index now stands at 110.98, up from 109.30 (a downward revision) in June. The increase marks a 1.3 percent gain in the ETI over the past 12 months.

“The Employment Trends Index increased in July but continues to hover around a flat trend since the summer of 2018,” said Gad Levanon, Head of The Conference Board’s Labor Market Institute. “In the second half of 2018, the Employment Trends Index started signaling a ...


New orders for manufactured goods increased 0.6% in June
Posted: August 2, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Summary
New orders for manufactured goods in June, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, increased $3.1 billion or 0.6 percent to $493.8 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 1.3 percent May decrease. Shipments, up four of the last five months, increased $1.9 billion or 0.4 percent to $506.2 billion. ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence increased in July to 98.4
Posted: August 2, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer sentiment has been remarkably stable since the start of 2017, despite ongoing trade uncertainties, according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

The resilience displayed has been primarily due to a renewed sense of personal financial optimism, said economist Richard Curtin, director of the surveys. Indeed, recent surveys have recorded the most favorable personal financial expectations since May 2003. ...


July Employment increased by 164,000
Unemployment Rate little changed at 3.7%

Posted: August 2, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 164,000 in July, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in professional and technical services, health care, social assistance, and ...


Goods and Services Deficit Increased in June 2019
Posted: August 2, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The nation's international trade deficit in goods and services decreased to $55.2 billion in June from $55.3 billion in May (revised), as imports decreased more than exports. The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $55.2 billion in June, down $0.2 billion from ...


New York Purchasing Managers Business Activity fell to 43.5 in July
Posted: August 2, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

In July, New York City purchasing managers changed direction on every index except Expected Revenues - much like the dynamic observed in May, according to the survey taken by the Institute for Supply Management-New York.

New York Metro
Current Business Conditions reached the lowest level reported in over three years (referencing 37.2 in May of 2016). Business conditions fell to 43.5 in July, down from the breakeven point of 50.0 in June. The Six-Month Outlook recovered from the 10-year low ...



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