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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 200812



DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer up 1.4%
Posted: December 31, 2008 at 10:01 AM (Wednesday)

For the week ending December 20, 2008, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer leapt up by +1.4 percent led by a surge in last minute holiday shopping and a cold snap that increased utility usage across much of the country. Inflation-adjusted chain store sales posted their largest weekly increase since the same week one-year ago, proving that ...


New York Purchasing Managers index essentially unchanged
Posted: December 31, 2008 at 10:01 AM (Wednesday)

New York City business activity was essentially unchanged in December after falling sharply last month, according to the survey taken by the National Association of Purchasing Management-New York (NAPM-NY). The Current Business Conditions index rose to 50.1 in December.

Purchasing managers were less pessimistic about the outlook. The Six-Month Outlook index rose to 40.7 in December from last month¹s record low. ...


Weekly initial unemployment claims down 94,000 to 492,000
Posted: December 31, 2008 at 08:31 AM (Wednesday)

In the week ending Dec. 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 492,000, a decrease of 94,000 from the previous week's unrevised figure of 586,000. The 4-week moving average was 552,250, a decrease of 5,750 from the previous week's unrevised average of ...


Mortgage Applications Little Changed In Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: December 31, 2008 at 07:01 AM (Wednesday)

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 26, 2008. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, was 1245.7, essentially unchanged, on a seasonally adjusted basis from 1245.4 one week earlier. This week’s results included an adjustment ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing activity shows continued weakness
Posted: December 30, 2008 at 11:01 AM (Tuesday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity weakened further in December, and firms’ expectations for future activity remained pessimistic. Price indexes in the survey also fell for the second straight month.

The net percentage of firms reporting month-over-month increases in production in December was -21, up from -31 in November and -23 in October. Among both durable and nondurable goods producers, production fell at fewer plants than in November. The month-over-month factory ...


Consumer Confidence Falls to New All-Time Low in December
Posted: December 30, 2008 at 10:02 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index™, which had increased moderately in November, declined to a new all-time low in December. The Index now stands at 38.0 (1985=100), down from 44.7 in November. The Present Situation Index plummeted to 29.4 from 42.3 last month. The Expectations Index decreased to 43.8 from 46.2 ...


Chicago PMI indicates increased weakness of the economy
Posted: December 30, 2008 at 10:01 AM (Tuesday)

The Chicago Purchasing Managers reported the CHICAGO BUSINESS BAROMETER indicated increased weakness of the USA economy in December:

BUSINESS ACTIVITY:
PRICES PAID index decline reached the greatest breadth in almost 60 years;
PRODUCTION decline sustained;
EMPLOYMENT continued year-long decline;
ORDER BACKLOGS index reached a 28 year low;
BUYING POLICY: moderated. ...


S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices declines 18%
Posted: December 30, 2008 at 09:03 AM (Tuesday)

Data through October 2008, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, shows continued broad based declines in the prices of existing single family homes across the United States, with 14 of the 20 metro areas showing record rates of annual decline and 14 now ...


ICSC Chain Store Sales Index -1.5% In Dec 27 Wk
Posted: December 30, 2008 at 07:46 AM (Tuesday)

U.S. chain store sales were hit last week by sluggish demand from consumers combined with severe weather conditions in several parts of the country, the International Council of Shopping Centers said Tuesday. The ICSC/Goldman Sachs Retail Chain Store Sales Index fell 1.5% in the week ended Dec. 27 from the prior week and was down 1.8% on the ...


Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index declined 1.6%
Posted: December 29, 2008 at 12:31 PM (Monday)

The Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index (CFMMI) decreased 1.6% in November, to a seasonally adjusted level of 96.4 (2002 = 100). Revised data show the index decreased 1.2% in October, to 98.0. The Federal Reserve Board’s industrial production index for manufacturing IPMFG) decreased 1.5% in November. Regional output in November was down ...


Texas Manufacturing Activity Declines Deepen
Posted: December 29, 2008 at 10:31 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity deteriorated further in December, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. Nearly all indexes of current activity remained negative, and several dropped to record lows. The six-month outlook remained uncertain and weak, and a majority of respondents noted a decline in ...


New orders for durable goods decreased 1.0%
Posted: December 24, 2008 at 01:04 PM (Wednesday)

New orders for manufactured durable goods in November decreased $1.8 billion or 1.0 percent to $186.9 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This was the fourth consecutive monthly decrease and followed an 8.4 percent October decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.2 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased ...


DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer Down -0.5%
Posted: December 24, 2008 at 10:02 AM (Wednesday)

For the week ending December 13, 2008, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer dropped by another -0.5 percent with broad declines across the consumer and industrial sectors of the economy. The year-over-year growth rate for the barometer is absolutely plunging, on par with a contraction not seen since the mid-1980s. The barometer last ...


Personal Income down 0.2%, Spending down 0.6%
Posted: December 24, 2008 at 08:31 AM (Wednesday)

Personal income decreased $20.7 billion, or 0.2 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $11.8 billion, or 0.1 percent, in November, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $56.1 billion, or 0.6 percent. In October, personal income increased $11.3 billion, or 0.1 percent, ...


Weekly initial unemployment claims up 30,000 to 586,000
Posted: December 24, 2008 at 08:03 AM (Wednesday)

In the week ending Dec. 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 586,000, an increase of 30,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 556,000. The 4-week moving average was 558,000, an increase of 13,750 from the previous week's revised average of ...


Near Record Low Mortgage Rates Boost Mortgage Applications
Posted: December 24, 2008 at 07:01 AM (Wednesday)

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 19, 2008. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, was 1245.4, an increase of 48.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from 841.4 one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the ...


Richmond Fed's latest survey decreased to -55
Posted: December 23, 2008 at 10:02 PM (Tuesday)

In December, the seasonally adjusted manufacturing index — our broadest measure of manufacturing activity — decreased to -55 from November's reading of -38. Among the index's components, shipments plummeted twenty-four points to -55, new orders fell eighteen points to -66, and the jobs index pulled back eight points to finish ...


New Home Sales in November at annual rate of 407,000
Posted: December 23, 2008 at 10:03 AM (Tuesday)

Sales of new one-family houses in November 2008 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 407,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 2.9 percent (±13.9%)* below the revised October of 419,000 and is 35.3 percent (±11.4%) below the November ...


U Mich - Lower Prices Provide Consumers Some Relief
Posted: December 23, 2008 at 10:02 AM (Tuesday)

Consumers reported that lower prices provided some needed relief, but continued job losses as well as income declines have kept consumers pessimistic about their future economic prospects. The most significant change recorded in the December survey was the record plunge in inflation expectations. Not only did a record number of consumers ...


Existing-Home Sales Decline in Economic Uncertainty
Posted: December 23, 2008 at 10:01 AM (Tuesday)

Existing-home sales weakened against a backdrop of an eroding economy, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – fell 8.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate¹ of 4.49 million units in November from a downwardly revised level of 4.91 million in October, and are 10.6 percent below the 5.02 ...


3Q2008 GDP final estimate -0.5%
Posted: December 23, 2008 at 08:31 AM (Tuesday)

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- decreased at an annual rate of 0.5 percent in the third quarter of 2008, (that is, from the second quarter to the third quarter), according to final estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the ...


ICSC Chain Store Sales Index Up 2.6% In Dec 20 Wk
Posted: December 23, 2008 at 07:46 AM (Tuesday)

The International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs Retail Chain Store Sales Index increased 2.6% in the week to December 20 from its level in the previous week, on a seasonally-adjusted, comparable store basis. On a year-on-year basis, retailer sales declined 0.6% in the latest week, as consumers complete holiday gift purchases at ...


Chicago Fed National Activity Index weakened further
Posted: December 22, 2008 at 08:31 AM (Monday)

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index was −2.47 in November, down from −1.27 in October. All four broad categories of indicators made negative ontributions to the index in November.

On December 1, 2008, the National Bureau of Economic Research determined that the U.S. economy had reached a business cycle peak in December 2007. The three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, first indicated an increasing likelihood that a recession had begun in December ...


DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer down -0.7%
Posted: December 18, 2008 at 10:02 AM (Thursday)

Barometer Down -0.7% in Week Ending December 6, 2008
For the week ending December 6, 2008, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer dropped by another -0.7 percent with broad declines across the consumer and industrial sectors of the economy. The year-over-year growth rate for the barometer is absolutely plunging, on par with a contraction not ...


Philadelphia Fed December Outlook contines decline
Posted: December 18, 2008 at 10:02 AM (Thursday)

Conditions in the region's manufacturing sector continued to deteriorate this month, according to firms polled for the December Business Outlook Survey. All of the survey's broad indicators remained negative this month and at relatively low levels. Firms reported declines in input prices and the prices for their own manufactured goods this ...


U.S. leading index decreased 0.3 percent
Posted: December 18, 2008 at 10:01 AM (Thursday)

The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index decreased 0.4 percent, the coincident index decreased 0.3 percent and the lagging index increased 0.1 percent in November.

The leading index continued to fall in November, due mainly to large declines in building permits, stock prices, and initial unemployment claims, which offset the continued positive contributions from real money supply (M2) and the yield spread. Without the very large ...


Weekly initial unemployment claims down 21,000 to 554,000
Posted: December 18, 2008 at 08:31 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending Dec. 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 554,000, a decrease of 21,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 575,000. The 4-week moving average was 543,750, an increase of 2,750 from the previous week's revised average of ...


3Q08 Current Account Deficit decreased
Posted: December 17, 2008 at 08:31 AM (Wednesday)

The U.S. current-account deficit--the combined balances on trade in goods and services, income, and net unilateral current transfers--decreased to $174.1 billion (preliminary) in the third quarter of 2008 from $180.9 billion (revised) in the second quarter. The decrease was accounted for by increases in the surpluses on income and on services ...


Weekly Mortgage Applications Increase, Driven by Refinances
Posted: December 17, 2008 at 07:50 AM (Wednesday)

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 12, 2008. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, was 841.4, an increase of 2.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from 817.7 one week earlier, which was revised from 796.8.* On ...


FOMC target funds rate of 0 - 1/4%
Posted: December 16, 2008 at 02:25 PM (Tuesday)

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to establish a target range for the federal funds rate of 0 to 1/4 percent.

Since the Committee's last meeting, labor market conditions have deteriorated, and the available data indicate that consumer spending, business investment, and industrial production have declined. Financial markets remain quite strained and credit conditions tight. Overall, ...


November Housing starts down 18.9%, Permits down 15.6%
Posted: December 16, 2008 at 08:32 AM (Tuesday)

BUILDING PERMITS
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 616,000. This is 15.6 percent (±1.6%) below the revised October rate of 730,000 and is 48.1 percent (±1.1%) below the revised November 2007 estimate of 1,187,000. Single-family authorizations in November were at ...


Consumer Price Index decreased 1.9% in November
Posted: December 16, 2008 at 08:31 AM (Tuesday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased 1.9 percent in November, before seasonal adjustment, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The November level of 212.425 (1982-84=100) was 1.1 percent higher than in November 2007.

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners ...


ICSC Chain Store Sales Up 0.6% In Dec 13 Week
Posted: December 16, 2008 at 07:16 AM (Tuesday)

The International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs Retail Chain Store Sales Index increased 0.61% in the week to December 13 from its level a week before, on a seasonally-adjusted, comparable store basis. On a year-on-year basis, retailers saw sales decline by 0.4% in the latest week, as consumers complete holiday gift purchases at ...


NAHB Builder confidence held at record low
Posted: December 15, 2008 at 01:02 PM (Monday)

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes held at a record low in December as deepening economic turmoil, a deteriorating job market, and an ongoing flow of foreclosed homes onto the market continued to negatively impact sales conditions. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index ...


Industrial production drops 0.6%
Capacity Utilization down to 75.4%

Posted: December 15, 2008 at 09:16 AM (Monday)

Industrial production decreased 0.6 percent in November with declines widespread across industries. The drop in output in September was revised down, and the rebound in October was revised up, in large part because both the decrease due to the September hurricanes and the subsequent partial recovery in October were larger than previously ...


Empire State Manufacturing deteriorated significantly
Posted: December 15, 2008 at 08:32 AM (Monday)

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers deteriorated significantly in December. The general business conditions index, at -25.8, held near the record low set in November. The new orders and shipments indexes also remained near their recent record lows, and the unfilled orders index dropped to ...


Business Inventories down 0.6% in October
Posted: December 12, 2008 at 10:02 AM (Friday)

Sales. The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that the combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for October, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,118.7 billion, down 3.5 percent (±0.3%) from September 2008 and down 1.6 percent (±0.5%) from October ...


U.S. Retail Sales for November decreased 1.8%
Posted: December 12, 2008 at 08:33 AM (Friday)

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $355.7 billion, a decrease of 1.8 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month and 7.4 percent (±0.7%) below November 2007. ...


Producer Price Index fell 2.2 percent in November
Posted: December 12, 2008 at 08:33 AM (Friday)

The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods fell 2.2 percent in November, seasonally adjusted, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. This decline followed decreases of 2.8 percent in October and 0.4 percent in September. At the earlier stages of processing, prices received by manufacturers of ...


DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer edged down -0.9%
Posted: December 11, 2008 at 10:02 AM (Thursday)

For the week ending November 29, 2008, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer dropped a hefty -0.9 percent, dragged down by nearly across the board declines in the industrial sector. Though much of the weakness in the industrial sector is a direct reflection of unwinding commodity prices, there has also been a significant drop-off in foreign ...


Goods and Services Deficit Increases in October 2008
Posted: December 11, 2008 at 08:32 AM (Thursday)

The Nation's international deficit in goods and services increased to $57.2 billion in October from $56.6 billion (revised) in September, as exports decreased more than imports.

Goods and Services
Exports decreased to $151.7 billion in October from $155.1 billion in September. Goods were $104.8 billion in October, down from $107.8 billion in September, and services were $46.9 billion in October, down from $47.3 billion in September. ...


Weekly initial unemployment claims up 58,000 to 573,000
Posted: December 11, 2008 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending Dec. 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 573,000, an increase of 58,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 515,000. The 4-week moving average was 540,500, an increase of 14,250 from the previous week's revised average of ...


U.S. Import Price Index decreased 6.7% in November
Posted: December 11, 2008 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The U.S. Import Price Index fell for the fourth consecutive month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today, decreasing 6.7 percent in November as falling prices for both petroleum and nonpetroleum imports contributed to the decline. Export prices declined 3.2 percent in November, the fourth consecutive ...


Wholesale Inventories down 1.1% in October
Posted: December 10, 2008 at 10:02 AM (Wednesday)

Sales. The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that October 2008 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $377.4 billion, down 4.1 percent (+/-0.7%) from the revised September level, but up 2.7 ...


Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: December 10, 2008 at 07:02 AM (Wednesday)

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 5, 2008. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, was 796.8, a decrease of 7.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from 857.7 one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index ...


Pending Home Sales Holding In Stable Range
Posted: December 9, 2008 at 10:01 AM (Tuesday)

Pending home sales eased against a deteriorating economic backdrop but remain in a stable range, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in October, slipped 0.7 percent to 88.9 from an upwardly revised reading of 89.5 in September, and is 1.0 percent below October 2007 when it was 89.8. Despite the turmoil in the economy, the ...


ICSC Chain Store Sales Down 0.8% In Dec 6 Week
Posted: December 9, 2008 at 07:15 AM (Tuesday)

The International Council of Shopping Centers-Goldman Sachs Retail Chain Store Sales Index fell by 0.8% in the week to Dec. 6 from its level a week before, on a seasonally-adjusted, comparable store basis. This result Tuesday followed a 0.1% increase in the prior week. "With the rush and excitement of Black Friday sales and promotions behind ...


Consumer credit decreased at an annual rate of 1.5%
Posted: December 5, 2008 at 03:02 PM (Friday)

Consumer credit fell at an annual rate of 1-1/2 percent in October. Revolving credit was essentially unchanged, while nonrevolving credit fell 2-1/2 percent.

...


November Employment declined by 533,000,
Unemployment rate jumps to 6.7%

Posted: December 5, 2008 at 08:32 AM (Friday)

Nonfarm payroll employment fell sharply (-533,000) in November, and the unemployment rate rose from 6.5 to 6.7 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. November's drop in payroll employment followed declines of 403,000 in September and 320,000 in October, as revised. Job losses were large ...


DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer down -0.6%
Posted: December 4, 2008 at 10:03 AM (Thursday)

For the week ending November 22, 2008, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer experienced its first increase following six straight weeks of decline. In the latest week, inflation-adjusted chain store sales and movie-going slumped but a rebound in the manufacturing sector helped save the day. Despite the latest week’s improvement, however, ...



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