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U.S. leading index decreased 0.3 percent
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The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index decreased 0.4 percent, the coincident index decreased 0.3 percent and the lagging index increased 0.1 percent in November.
The leading index continued to fall in November, due mainly to large declines in building permits, stock prices, and initial unemployment claims, which offset the continued positive contributions from real money supply (M2) and the yield spread. Without the very large increases in inflation-adjusted money supply since September, the leading index would have been significantly weaker.
The coincident index also fell in November, driven by a very large contraction in employment and a smaller drop in industrial production. The lagging index rose slightly this month, and the coincident-to-lagging ratio decreased as a result (the ratio tends to have long leads in the business cycle).
All in all, the continued widespread deterioration in the composite indexes suggests that the recession that began in December 2007 will continue into the new year, and the contraction in economic activity could deepen further in the near term.
Posted: December 18, 2008 Thursday 10:01 AM