The MNI Chicago Business Barometer surged to an 11-month high of 66.4 in November, up 8.0 points from October’s 58.4.

Business activity recorded its most impressive performance so far this year in November, ending a three-month run of declines. Although broad-based, with increases across all five of the Barometer’s subcomponents, resurgent orders, solid output and higher unfinished orders ...

Personal income increased $84.9 billion (0.5 percent) in October according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $81.7 billion (0.5 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $86.9 billion ...

Pending home sales declined slightly in October in all regions but the Northeast, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, decreased 2.6 percent to 102.1 in October, down from 104.8 in September. However, year-over-year contract signings dropped 6.7 percent, making this the tenth straight month of annual ...

In the week ending November 24, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 234,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 224,000. The 4-week moving average was 223,250, an increase of 4,750 from the previous week's unrevised average ...

Fifth District manufacturing activity grew moderately in November, according to results of the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite index slipped from 15 in October to 14 in November, pulled down by drops in the indexes for new orders and employment, while the other component, the index for shipments, ...

New Home Sales
Sales of new single‐family houses in October 2018 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 544,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 8.9 percent (±13.7 percent)* below the revised September rate of 597,000 and is 12.0 ...

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.5 percent in the third quarter of 2018, according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 4.2 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was also 3.5 percent. With this second estimate for the third quarter, the general ...

Mortgage applications increased 5.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 23, 2018. This week's results include an adjustment for the ...

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined in November, following an improvement in October. The Index now stands at 135.7 (1985=100), down from 137.9 in October. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions – improved slightly, from 171.9 to 172.7. The ...

S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for September 2018 shows that the rate of home price increases across the U.S. slowed for the second month in ...

Texas factory activity continued to expand in November, albeit at a markedly slower pace, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, remained positive but fell nine points to 8.4, indicating output growth continued ...

Led by improvements in employment-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to +0.24 in October from +0.14 in September. Only one of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from September, but three of the four categories made positive contributions to the index in October. ...

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI)for theU.S. increased 0.1 percent in October to 112.1 (2016 = 100), following a 0.6 percent increase in September, and a 0.5 percent increase in August.

“The US LEI increased slightly in October, and the pace of improvement slowed for the first time since May,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Economic Research and Global Research Chair at The Conference Board. “The index still points to robust economic growth in early ...

Existing-home sales increased in October after six straight months of decreases, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Three of four major U.S. regions saw gains in sales activity last month.

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, increased 1.4 percent from September to a seasonally adjusted rate of 5.22 million in October. Sales are now down 5.1 percent from a year ago ...

Consumer sentiment has remained largely unchanged at very favorable levels during 2018, with the November reading nearly at the center of the 11-month range from 95.7 to 101.4, according to the latest University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

Although the data recorded a within-month decline of 2.8 index points following the election, the drop was related more to income than political party, said U-M economist Richard Curtin, director of the surveys. ...

In the week ending November 17, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 224,000, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 5,000 from 216,000 to 221,000. The 4-week moving average was 218,500, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's revised average. ...

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in October decreased $11.5 billion or 4.4 percent to $248.5 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down three of the last four months, followed a 0.1 percent September decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.1 percent. Excluding defense, new ...

Mortgage applications decreased 0.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 16, 2018. This week's results do not include an adjustment for the Veterans' ...

Building Permits
Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,263,000. This is 0.6 percent (±2.4 percent)* below the revised September rate of 1,270,000 and is 6.0 percent (±1.6 percent) below the October 2017 rate of 1,343,000. Single‐family authorizations in October ...

Responses to the November Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest that nonmanufacturing activity in the region continued to expand. The firm-level index of general activity, new orders, and sales/revenues all rose above last month’s readings. In addition, the employment indicators remained positive, while the indexes for prices paid ...

Growing affordability concerns resulted in builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes falling eight points to 60 in November on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). Despite the sharp drop, builder sentiment still remains in ...

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for September 2018. The sum total in September of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a net TIC outflow of $29.1 billion. Of this, net foreign private inflows were $23.5 billion, and ...

Growth in Tenth District manufacturing activity edged higher in November, while expectations for future activity moderated slightly. Price indexes were mixed.

The month-over-month composite index was 15 in November, up from 8 in October and 13 in September. The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. The increase in factory growth was ...

Industrial production edged up 0.1 percent in October, as a gain for manufacturing outweighed decreases elsewhere. As a result of upward revisions primarily in mining, the overall index is now reported to have advanced at an annual rate of 4.7 percent in the third quarter, appreciably above the gain of 3.3 percent reported initially. ...

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for September, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,468.0 billion, up 0.4 percent (±0.2 percent) from August 2018 and was up 6.6 percent (±1.3 percent) from ...

Prices for U.S. imports increased 0.5 percent in October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, after advancing 0.2 percent in September. Higher fuel and nonfuel prices contributed to the October increase. U.S. export prices advanced 0.4 percent in October after recording no change in ...

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October 2018, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $511.5 billion, an increase of 0.8 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and 4.6 percent (±0.5 percent) above October 2017. Total sales for the August ...

Growth in manufacturing activity slowed in November, according to results from this month’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s broad indicators for general activity, new orders, shipments, employment, and work hours remained positive but fell from their readings last month. The firms remained generally optimistic about ...

Business activity continued to grow at a solid clip in New York State, according to firms responding to the November 2018 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index edged up two points to 23.3. New orders and shipments increased moderately, while unfilled orders held steady. Delivery times continued ...

In the week ending November 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 216,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 214,000. The 4-week moving average was 215,250, an increase of 1,500 from the previous week's unrevised average ...

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in October on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.1 percent in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.5 percent before ...

Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.1 percent from September to October, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from a 0.2-percent increase in average hourly earnings combined with a 0.3-percent increase in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban ...

Mortgage applications decreased 3.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 9, 2018.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 3.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased five percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 4.3 ...

The outlook for growth in the U.S. economy over the next four quarters is slightly weaker from that of three months ago, according to 37 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The panel predicts real GDP will grow at an annual rate of 2.6 percent this quarter and 2.4 percent next quarter, down from the previous ...

Small business optimism continued its two-year streak of record highs, according to the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index October reading of 107.4. Overall, small businesses continue to support the three percent-plus growth of the economy and add significant numbers of new workers to the employment pool. Owners believe the current period is ...

September 2018 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $511.2 billion, up 0.2 percent (±0.5 percent)* from the revised August level and were up 7.8 percent (±3.5 percent) from the September 2017 level. ...

Consumer sentiment remained virtually unchanged in early November from its October reading. Importantly, interviewing went through Wednesday night so there was only a one-day overlap after the mid-term election results were known by consumers. Those few cases held expectations that were identical with the data collected earlier in the month, ...

The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.6 percent in October, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices advanced 0.2 percent in September and declined 0.1 percent in August. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index increased 2.9 percent for the 12 months ended ...

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a strong rate. Job gains have been strong, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has declined. Household spending has continued to grow ...

In the week ending November 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 214,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 214,000 to 215,000. The 4-week moving average was 213,750, a decrease of 250 from the previous week's revised average. The ...

Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5-1/4 percent during the third quarter. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 6-1/2 percent. In September, consumer credit increased at an annual rate of ...

Mortgage applications decreased 4.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 2, 2018.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 4.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier to the lowest level since December 2014. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous ...

The number of job openings decreased to 7.0 million on the last business day of September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and separations were both little changed at 5.7 million. Within separations, the quits rate was unchanged at 2.4 percent and the layoffs and discharges rate was little changed at ...

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased in October, following a decrease in September. The index now stands at 110.72, up from 110.39 (a downward revision) in September. The change represents a 4.6 percent gain in the ETI compared to a year ago.

“After last month’s decline, The Employment Trends Index bounced back and is signaling solid employment growth through the winter,” said Gad Levanon, Chief Economist, North America, at The Conference Board. “The main determinants of wage growth – economic growth, a tight ...

Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in October for the 105th consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The NMI® registered 60.3 percent, which is 1.3 percentage points lower than the September reading of 61.6 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a slower rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index decreased to 62.5 percent, 2.7 ...

New orders for manufactured goods in September, up four of the last five months, increased $3.4 billion or 0.7 percent to $515.3 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 2.6 percent August increase. Shipments, up sixteen of the last seventeen months, increased $4.6 billion or 0.9 percent to $509.8 billion. This followed ...

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 250,000 in October, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in manufacturing, in construction, and in transportation and ...

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $54.0 billion in September, up $0.7 billion from $53.3 billion in August, revised.

Exports, Imports, and Balance
September exports were $212.6 billion, $3.1 billion more than August exports. September imports were $266.6 billion, $3.8 billion more than August imports. The September increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the ...

In October, New York City purchasing managers reported yet another new high level of Employment while indicating lower Current Business Conditions and a lower Six-Month Outlook, according to the survey taken by the Institute for Supply Management-New York.

New York Metro
Current Business Conditions were at 69.8 in October versus 72.5 in September, down for the second consecutive month. The Six-Month Outlook fell to 70.9 in October from 81.5 in September, the largest month-over-month drop since January-February 2018 (11.4). ...

Total Construction
Construction spending during September 2018 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,329.5 billion, nearly the same as (±1.5 percent)* the revised August estimate of $1,328.8 billion. The September figure is 7.2 percent (±1.8 percent) above the September 2017 estimate of $1,240.4 billion. During the first ...