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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 201911



Beige Book: Economic Activity continues to expand modestly
Posted: November 27, 2019 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Economic activity expanded modestly from October through mid-November, similar to the pace of growth seen over the prior reporting period. Most Districts reported stable to moderately growing consumer spending, and increases in auto sales and tourism were seen across several Districts. In manufacturing, more Districts reported an expansion in ...


Pending Home Sales Index Decline 1.7% in October
Posted: November 27, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Pending home sales retreated in October, taking a slight step back after two prior months of increases, according to the National Association of Realtors®. The Northeast experienced a minor uptick last month, but the other three major U.S. regions reported declines in month-over-month contract activity. However, pending home sales were ...


Chicago Purchasing Managers Index rose 3.1 points to 46.3 in November
Posted: November 27, 2019 at 09:45 AM (Wednesday)

The Chicago Business BarometerTM, produced with MNI, rose 3.1 points in November, hitting a two-month high 46.3.

However, the index remains in contraction for the third month straight, resulting in a further fall of the 3-month average to 45.5. ...


3Q2019 GDP preliminary estimate increased 2.1%
Posted: November 27, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the third quarter of 2019 (table 1), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 2.0 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 1.9 percent. With the second estimate for the third quarter, upward revisions to ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 15,000 to 213,000
Posted: November 27, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

In the week ending November 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 213,000, a decrease of 15,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 227,000 to 228,000. The 4-week moving average was 219,750, a decrease of 1,500 from the previous week's revised average. ...


October New Orders for Durable Goods Increased 0.6%, Ex-Trans up 0.6%
Posted: November 27, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in October increased $1.5 billion or 0.6 percent to $248.7 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up four of the last five months, followed a 1.4 percent September decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.6 percent. Excluding defense, new ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: November 27, 2019 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 1.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 22, 2019. This week's results are being compared to the week of ...


New Home Sales in October 2019 at annual rate of 733,000
Posted: November 26, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

New Home Sales
Sales of new single‐family houses in October 2019 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 733,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 0.7 percent (±20.4 percent)* below the revised September rate of 738,000, but is 31.6 ...


Consumer Confidence decreased in November to 125.5
Posted: November 26, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® decreased in November, following a slight decline in October. The Index now stands at 125.5 (1985=100), down from 126.1 in October. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions – decreased from 173.5 to 166.9. The Expectations Index ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity Index fell from 8 to −1 in November
Posted: November 26, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity softened in November, according to the most recent survey from the Richmond Fed. The composite index fell from 8 in October to −1 in November, weighed down by negative readings for shipments and new orders, while the third component — employment — declined but remained positive. Manufacturing firms ...


S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Increased 0.1% in September
Posted: November 26, 2019 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for September 2019 show that home prices continue to increase at a modest rate across the U.S.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 3.2% annual gain in September, up from 3.1% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 1.5%, no change from the ...


Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Survey Suggest Activity Continued Expansion in November
Posted: November 26, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Responses to the November Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest continued expansion in nonmanufacturing activity in the region. The indexes for general activity at the firm level and sales/revenues both increased, while the new orders index ticked downward. The index for full-time employment rose. The firms continued to report ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity Contracted Slightly in November
Posted: November 25, 2019 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity contracted slightly in November, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, dipped into negative territory for the first time since mid-2016, falling seven points ...


Chicago Fed National Activity Index Points to Further Slower Economic Growth in October
Posted: November 25, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to –0.71 in October from –0.45 in September. Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from September, and all four categories made negative contributions to the index in October. The index’s ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity continued to decline modestly in November
Posted: November 22, 2019 at 11:00 AM (Friday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity continued to decline modestly in November, however expectations for future activity rebounded moderately (Chart 1). The month-over-month price indexes for raw materials and finished products both increased and District firms expected prices to increase over the next ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence increased in November to 96.8
Posted: November 22, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer sentiment in the November 2019 survey was nearly identical to the average level recorded since the start of 2017 (96.8 versus 97), according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

In 30 of the past 35 months, the Sentiment Index was 95 or higher, a level of optimism second only to when the index was above 100 for 34 out of 36 months from January 1998 to December 2000. ...


Existing-Home Sales increased 1.9% in October
Posted: November 21, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Existing-home sales rose in October, a slight recovery from the declines seen in September, according to the National Association of Realtors®. The four major U.S. regions were split last month, with the Midwest and the South seeing growth, and the Northeast and the West both reporting a drop ...


U.S. Leading Economic Index declined 0.1% in October
Posted: November 21, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI)for the U.S. declined 0.1 percent in October to 111.7 (2016 = 100), following a 0.2 percent decline in both September and August.

“The US LEI declined for a third consecutive month, and its six-month growth rate turned negative for the first time since May 2016. The decline was driven by weaknesses in new orders for manufacturing, average weekly hours, and unemployment insurance claims,” said Ataman ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 2,000 to 227,000
Posted: November 21, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending November 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 227,000, unchanged from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 225,000 to 227,000. The 4-week moving average was 221,000, an increase of 3,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous ...


Philadelphia Fed Outlook Reported Activity continued to grow in November
Posted: November 21, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Manufacturing activity in the region continued to grow, according to results from the November Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s broad indicators remained positive, although their movements were mixed this month: The indicator for general activity increased, but the new orders, shipments, and employment indicators decreased ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: November 20, 2019 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 2.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 15, 2019. This week's results include an adjustment for the Veterans ...


October Housing Starts increased 3.8%, Permits up 5.0%
Posted: November 19, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Building Permits
Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,461,000. This is 5.0 percent (±1.7 percent) above the revised September rate of 1,391,000 and is 14.1 percent (±2.1 percent) above the October 2018 rate of 1,281,000. Single‐family authorizations in October ...


NAHB Builder Confidence edged one point lower to 70 in November
Posted: November 18, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes edged one point lower to 70 in November, according to the latest NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. The past two months mark the highest sentiment levels in 2019.

“Single-family builders are currently reporting ongoing positive conditions, spurred in part by low mortgage rates and continued job growth,” said NAHB Chairman Greg Ugalde. “In a further sign of solid demand, this is the fourth consecutive month where at least half of all ...


Business Inventories unch% in September
Posted: November 15, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for September, adjusted for seasonal and trading day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,459.4 billion, down 0.2 percent (±0.2 percent)* from August 2019, but was up 0.5 percent (±0.3 percent) from ...


Forecasters See Lower Near-Term Growth
Posted: November 15, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The U.S. economy for the next four quarters looks weaker now than it did three months ago, according to 39 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The panel predicts real GDP will grow at an annual rate of 1.7 percent this quarter, down from 2.0 percent in the last survey, 1.9 percent next quarter, and 1.7 percent in ...


Industrial Production fell 0.8%
Capacity Utilization decreased to 76.7%

Posted: November 15, 2019 at 09:15 AM (Friday)

Industrial production fell 0.8 percent in October after declining 0.3 percent in September. Manufacturing production decreased 0.6 percent in October. Much of this decline was due to a drop of 7.1 percent in the output of motor vehicles and parts that resulted from a strike at a major manufacturer of motor vehicles. The decreases for ...


U.S. Import Price Index fell 0.5% in October
Posted: November 15, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

U.S. import prices fell 0.5 percent in October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, following a 0.1-percent increase the previous month. The decrease in October was driven by lower petroleum prices, which declined 3.7 percent; prices for all imports excluding petroleum fell 0.1 percent. The price index for U.S. exports ...


U.S. Retail Sales for October Increased 0.3%, Ex-Auto up 0.2%
Posted: November 15, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October 2019, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $526.5 billion, an increase of 0.3 percent (±0.4 percent)* from the previous month, and 3.1 percent (±0.7 percent) above October 2018. Total sales for the August ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions were little changed in November
Posted: November 15, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Business activity was little changed in New York State, according to firms responding to the November 2019 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index came in at 2.9, roughly in line with its level in October. New orders increased slightly, and shipments grew modestly. Delivery times were somewhat shorter ...


Producer Price Index increased 0.4% in October, ex Fd & Engy up 0.1%
Posted: November 14, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.4 percent in October, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices fell 0.3 percent in September and edged up 0.1 percent in August. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index advanced 1.1 percent for the 12 months ended in October, ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 14,000 to 225,000
Posted: November 14, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending November 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 225,000, an increase of 14,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 211,000. The 4-week moving average was 217,000, an increase of 1,750 from the previous week's unrevised average ...


Real Average Hourly Earnings decreased 0.2% in October
Posted: November 13, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.2 percent from September to October, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from an increase of 0.2 percent in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.4 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban ...


Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in October, Ex Fd & Engy rose 0.2%
Posted: November 13, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in October on a seasonally adjusted basis after being unchanged in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.8 percent before ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: November 13, 2019 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 9.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 8, 2019.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 9.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 9 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 13 ...


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index gained 0.6 points to 102.4 in October
Posted: November 12, 2019 at 07:00 AM (Tuesday)

The small business half of the economy continued its remarkable economic streak, posting a 0.6 point gain in October’s Optimism Index. The 102.4 reading was buoyed by eight of the 10 Index components advancing, as talk of a recession waned in October. The Uncertainty Index declined 4 points but remains historically high heading into an ...


Wholesale Inventories up 0.2% in August 2019
Posted: November 8, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

August 2019 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading day differences but not for price changes, were $499.1 billion, virtually unchanged (±0.4 percent)* from the revised July level, but were down 0.7 percent (±0.9 percent)* from the August 2018 level. ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Preliminary November Results flat at 95.7
Posted: November 8, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The early November reading on consumer sentiment was nearly identical to last month's and the average 2019 level (95.6). Consumers did voice a slightly more positive outlook for the economy, which was offset by a slightly less favorable outlook for their own personal finances. Spontaneous negative references to tariffs were still mentioned ...


Consumer Credit Increased at an annual rate of 2.75% in September
Posted: November 7, 2019 at 03:00 PM (Thursday)

Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5 percent during the third quarter. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2-1/4 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 6 percent. In September, consumer credit increased at an annual rate of ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 8,000 to 211,000
Posted: November 7, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending November 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 211,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 218,000 to 219,000. The 4-week moving average was 215,250, an increase of 250 from the previous week's revised average. The ...


3Q2019 Productivity Growth Decreased 0.3%
Posted: November 6, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity decreased 0.3 percent in the third quarter of 2019, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output increased 2.1 percent and hours worked increased 2.4 percent. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates.) From the third quarter of 2018 to the ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: November 6, 2019 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 0.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 1, 2019.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 2 ...


Job Openings edged down to 7.0 million in September
Posted: November 5, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The number of job openings edged down to 7.0 million (-277,000) on the last business day of September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and separations were little changed at 5.9 million and 5.8 million, respectively. Within separations, the quits rate and the layoffs and discharges rate were little ...


ISM Non-Manufacturing Index rose to 54.7% in October
Posted: November 5, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in October for the 117th consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “The NMI® registered 54.7 percent, which is 2.1 percentage points above the September reading of 52.6 ...


Goods and Services Deficit Decreased in September 2019
Posted: November 5, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The nation's international trade deficit in goods and services decreased to $52.5 billion in September from $55.0 billion in August (revised), as imports decreased more than exports. The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $52.5 billion in September, down $2.6 ...


New orders for manufactured goods decreased 0.6% in September
Posted: November 4, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

New orders for manufactured goods in September, down two consecutive months, decreased $2.9 billion or 0.6 percent to $496.7 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 0.1 percent August decrease. Shipments, down three consecutive months, decreased $1.1 billion or 0.2 percent to $501.1 billion. This followed a 0.3 ...


Employment Trends Index decreased in October to 110.11
Posted: November 4, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) decreased in October, following an increase in September. The index now stands at 110.11, down from 110.87 (a downward revision) in September. The decrease marks a 0.4 percent decline in the ETI over the past 12 months.

“The Employment Trends Index declined in October, with negative contributions from seven of its eight components. The index suggests that job growth may slow down a little in the coming months,” said Gad Levanon, Head of The Conference Board Labor Market Institute. “Leading ...


New York Purchasing Managers Business Activity rose to 47.7 in October
Posted: November 4, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Baby Steps in the Right Direction In October, New York City purchasing managers expressed a more positive perspective than the clear pessimism seen in September, according to the survey taken by the Institute for Supply Management New York.

New York Metro Current Business Conditions rose by 4.9 points to 47.7 in October, up from September's 40 month low of 42.8, but still not enough to reach the breakeven point of 50.0. Current Business Conditions and Quantity of Purchases are the only two indices that remain ...


Construction Spending Increased 0.5% in September
Posted: November 1, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Total Construction
Construction spending during September 2019 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,293.6 billion, 0.5 percent (±1.0 percent)* above the revised August estimate of $1,287.1 billion. The September figure is 2.0 percent (±1.8 percent) below the September 2018 estimate of $1,319.7 billion. During the first ...


ISM Manufacturing Index Increased to 48.3% in October
Posted: November 1, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in October, and the overall economy grew for the 126th consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “The October PMI® registered 48.3 percent, an increase of 0.5 percentage point from the September reading of 47.8 ...


October Employment increased by 128,000
Unemployment Rate little changed at 3.6%

Posted: November 1, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 128,000 in October, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 3.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in food services and drinking places, social assistance, and financial activities. Within manufacturing, employment in motor vehicles and ...



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