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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 202112


Chicago Purchasing Managers Index rose to 63.1 in December 2021
Posted: December 30, 2021 at 09:45 AM (Thursday)

The Chicago Business BarometerTM, produced with MNI, rose to 63.1 in December, picking up again after last month’s decline. Inventories hit a four-year high as firms created buffers for longer lead times.

Among the main five indicators, Production and New Orders and were higher. Order Backlogs, Employment and Supplier Deliveries fell across the month. ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease 8,000 to 198,000
Posted: December 30, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending December 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 198,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 205,000 to 206,000. The 4-week moving average was 199,250, a decrease of 7,250 from the previous week's revised average. This ...


Pending Home Sales Index fell 2.2% in November 2021
Posted: December 29, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Pending home sales slipped in November, receding slightly after a previous month of gains, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Each of the four major U.S. regions witnessed contract transactions decline month-over-month. Year-over-year activity mostly retreated too, as three regions reported drops and only the Midwest saw ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity rose to 16 in December 2021
Posted: December 28, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity strengthened in December, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite index rose from 12 in November to 16 in December, driven by increases in shipments and new orders. The third component in the composite index, employment, moderated but remained ...


S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices increase 0.8% in October 2021
Posted: December 28, 2021 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for October 2021 show that home prices continue to increase across the U.S.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 19.1% annual gain in October, down from 19.7% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 17.1%, down from 17.9% ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity Continues to Increase Strongly in December 2021
Posted: December 27, 2021 at 11:02 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity increased at an above-average pace in December, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, held fairly steady at 26.7, a reading indicative of solid ...


New Home Sales in November 2021 at annual rate of 744,000
Posted: December 23, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

New Home Sales
Sales of new single‐family houses in November 2021 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 744,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 12.4 percent (±17.2 percent)* above the revised October rate of 662,000, but is 14.0 ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence improved in December to 70.6
Posted: December 23, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Although consumers were slightly more optimistic about economic conditions in the December survey, nearly all the data were collected prior to the rapid spread of Omicron in the U.S., according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

While it is likely that confidence will decline in the month ahead, it is simply too early to judge the eventual impact of Omicron on prices, incomes and employment, said U-M economist Richard Curtin, director of the surveys. The most positive change recorded in December ...


Personal Income Increased 0.4%, Spending Increased 0.6% in November 2021
Posted: December 23, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Personal income increased $90.4 billion (0.4 percent) in November according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 3 and 5). Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $70.4 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $104.7 billion ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease 1,000 to 205,000
Posted: December 23, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending December 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 205,000, unchanged from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 1,000 from 206,000 to 205,000. The 4-week moving average was 206,250, an increase of 2,750 from the previous week's revised average. The ...


November 2021 New Orders for Durable Goods increased 2.5%, Ex-Trans up 0.8%
Posted: December 23, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in November increased $6.5 billion or 2.5 percent to $268.3 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up six of the last seven months, followed a 0.1 percent October increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.8 percent. Excluding defense, new ...


Consumer Confidence increased in December 2021 to 115.8
Posted: December 22, 2021 at 12:04 PM (Wednesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased again in December, after an upward revision in November. The Index now stands at 115.8 (1985=100), up from 111.9 (an upward revision) in November. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—was relatively flat at 144.1, ...


Existing-Home Sales rose 1.9% in November 2021
Posted: December 22, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Existing-home sales rose in November, denoting three consecutive months of increases, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Three of the four major U.S. regions reported growth in monthly sales, while the fourth region held steady in November. From a year-over-year perspective, only one region experienced a rise in sales as the ...


3Q2021 GDP final estimate increased 2.3%
Posted: December 22, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in the third quarter of 2021 (table 1), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 6.7 percent.

The "third" estimate of GDP released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.1 percent. The update primarily reflects upward revisions to personal ...


Chicago Fed National Activity Index suggests economic growth moderated in November 2021
Posted: December 22, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Led by slower growth in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to +0.37 in November from +0.75 in October. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in November, but all four categories deteriorated from October. The index’s ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: December 22, 2021 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 0.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 17, 2021.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 0.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 2 ...


3Q2021 Current Account Deficit Increased
Posted: December 21, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The U.S. current-account deficit, which reflects the combined balances on trade in goods and services and income flows between U.S. residents and residents of other countries, widened by $16.5 billion, or 8.3 percent, to $214.8 billion in the third quarter of 2021, according to statistics released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic ...


Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Survey suggest continued growth in December 2021
Posted: December 21, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Responses to the December Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest continued growth in business activity in the region. The indicators for firm-level general activity and sales/revenues both declined moderately from last month, while the indicator for new orders increased slightly. The survey's indexes for employment decreased. ...


U.S. Leading Economic Index increased 1.1% in November 2021
Posted: December 20, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI)for the U.S. increased by 1.1 percent in November to 119.9 (2016 = 100), following a 0.9 percent increase in October and a 0.3 percent increase in September.

“The U.S. LEI rose sharply again in November, suggesting the current economic expansion will continue into the first half of 2022,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “Inflation and continuing supply chain disruptions, as ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity edged higher in December 2021
Posted: December 16, 2021 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity growth edged higher, but expectations for future activity moderated slightly. The monthly index of raw materials prices continued to ease slightly from a month ago, although most firms continued to report higher input prices compared to a year ago. Finished goods price indexes declined from a month ago ...


Industrial Production rose 0.5%
Capacity Utilization increased to 76.8%

Posted: December 16, 2021 at 09:15 AM (Thursday)

Industrial production rose 0.5 percent in November. The indexes for both manufacturing and mining increased 0.7 percent, while the index for utilities decreased 0.8 percent.

At 102.3 percent of its 2017 average, total industrial production in November was 5.3 percent above its year-earlier level and at its highest reading since September 2019. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector increased 0.3 percentage point to 76.8 percent; even ...


November Housing Starts Increased 11.8%, Permits up 3.6%
Posted: December 16, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Building Permits
Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,712,000. This is 3.6 percent (±0.9 percent) above the revised October rate of 1,653,000 and is 0.9 percent (±2.0 percent)* above the November 2020 rate of 1,696,000. Single‐family authorizations in November ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase 28,000 to 222,000
Posted: December 16, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending December 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 206,000, an increase of 18,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 4,000 from 184,000 to 188,000. The 4-week moving average was 203,750, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week's revised average. This ...


Philadelphia Fed Outlook Activity grew slower in December 2021
Posted: December 16, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Manufacturing growth in the region continued but was less widespread, according to the firms responding to the December Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's indicators for general activity, shipments, and new orders all declined to their lowest readings in 2021 but remained positive this month. However, the employment index ...


Treasury International Capital Data for October 2021
Posted: December 15, 2021 at 04:00 PM (Wednesday)

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for October 2021. The sum total in October of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a net TIC inflow of $143.0 billion. Of this, net foreign private inflows were $152.3 billion, and ...


FOMC target funds rate maintained at 0.00% - 0.25% - Increased Taper
Posted: December 15, 2021 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.

With progress on vaccinations and strong policy support, indicators of economic activity and employment have continued to strengthen. The sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic have improved in recent months but continue to be affected by COVID-19. Job gains have ...


Business Inventories up 0.7% in October 2021
Posted: December 15, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for October, adjusted for seasonal and trading day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,709.1 billion, up 2.1 percent (±0.2 percent) from September 2021 and was up 16.7 percent (±0.7 percent) from ...


NAHB Builder Confidence rose 1 point to 84 in December 2021
Posted: December 15, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Despite inflation concerns and ongoing production bottlenecks, builder confidence edged higher for the fourth consecutive month on strong consumer demand and limited existing inventory. Builder sentiment in the market for newly built single-family homes moved one point higher to 84 in December, according to the National Association of ...


U.S. Import Price Index increased 0.7% in November 2021
Posted: December 15, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Prices for U.S. imports rose 0.7 percent in November following a 1.5-percent increase in October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. In November, both higher fuel and nonfuel prices contributed to the advance. U.S. export prices rose 1.0 percent in November, after increasing 1.6 percent in October and 0.3 percent in ...


U.S. Retail Sales for November 2021 increase 0.3%, Ex-Auto up 0.3%
Posted: December 15, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November 2021, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $639.8 billion, an increase of 0.3 percent (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, and 18.2 percent (±0.9 percent) above November 2020. Total sales for the ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions continued to grow strongly in December 2021
Posted: December 15, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Business activity continued to grow strongly in New York State, according to firms responding to the December 2021 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index held steady at 31.9. New orders and shipments posted substantial increases, and firms had more unfilled orders. Delivery times lengthened ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: December 15, 2021 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 4.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 10, 2021.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 4.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 6 ...


Producer Price Index rose 0.8% in November, ex Fd & Engy up 0.7%
Posted: December 14, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.8 percent in November, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices moved up 0.6 percent in each of the 3 prior months. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index rose 9.6 percent for the 12 months ended in November, the ...


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased to 98.4 in November
Posted: December 14, 2021 at 07:00 AM (Tuesday)

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased slightly in November by 0.2 points to 98.4. Four of the 10 Index components improved, four declined, and two were unchanged. The NFIB Uncertainty Index decreased four points to 63.

“As the end of the year nears, the outlook for business conditions is not encouraging to small business owners as lawmakers propose additional mandates and tax increases,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Owners are also pessimistic as many continue managing ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Preliminary December Results rose to 70.4
Posted: December 10, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Sentiment posted a small overall gain in early December (+4.5%), although it was still nearly identical to the average reading in the prior four months (70.6). The more interesting result was the large disparity between monthly gain among households with incomes in the lowest third (+23.6%) of the income distribution compared with the ...


Consumer Price Index increased 0.8% in November, Ex Fd & Engy up 0.5%
Posted: December 10, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.8 percent in November on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.9 percent in October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 6.8 percent before ...


Real Average Hourly Earnings decreased 0.4% in November 2021
Posted: December 10, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

All employees
Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.4 percent from October to November, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from an increase of 0.3 percent in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.8 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All ...


Wholesale Inventories up 2.3% in October 2021
Posted: December 9, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

October 2021 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading day differences but not for price changes, were $620.5 billion, up 2.2 percent (±0.4 percent) from the revised September level and were up 22.2 percent (±1.8 percent) from the revised October ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease 43,000 to 184,000
Posted: December 9, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending December 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 184,000, a decrease of 43,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since September 6, 1969 when it was 182,000. The previous week's level was revised up by 5,000 from 222,000 to 227,000. The 4-week ...


Job Openings reached a series high of 11.0 million in October
Posted: December 8, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

The number of job openings increased to 11.0 million on the last business day of October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires were little changed at 6.5 million and total separations edged down to 5.9 million. Within separations, the quits rate decreased to 2.8 percent following a series high in September. The layoffs ...


Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine Index rose in November 2021 to 165.7
Posted: December 8, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

The Conference Board®−Burning Glass® Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Index rose in November and now stands at 165.7 (July 2018=100), up from 161.2 in October. The 2.8 percent increase between October and November follows a 1.5 percent increase between September and October. Overall, the Index is up 61 percent from a ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: December 8, 2021 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 2.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 3, 2021. The previous week's results included an adjustment for the ...


Consumer Credit Increased at an annual rate of 4.6% in October
Posted: December 7, 2021 at 03:00 PM (Tuesday)

In October, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.6 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 7.8 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of of 3.7 percent.

...


3Q2021 Productivity Growth decreased 5.2%
Posted: December 7, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity decreased 5.2 percent in the third quarter of 2021, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output increased 1.8 percent and hours worked increased 7.4 percent. This is the largest decline in quarterly productivity since the second quarter of 1960, when the measure decreased 6.1 ...


Goods and Services Deficit Decreased in October 2021
Posted: December 7, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The nation's international trade deficit in goods and services decreased to $67.1 billion in October from $81.4 billion in September (revised), as exports increased more than imports. The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $67.1 billion in October, down $14.3 ...


Employment Trends Index increased slightly in November to 114.49
Posted: December 6, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased slightly in November. The index now stands at 114.49, up from 113.03 in October (an upward revision).

“The Employment Trends Index continues to advance steadily, suggesting a decent outlook for job growth over the next several months,” said Gad Levanon, Head of The Conference Board Labor Markets Institute. “In that context, November’s disappointing payrolls growth may be an ...


New orders for manufactured goods increased 0.2% in October 2021
Posted: December 3, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Summary
New orders for manufactured goods in October, up seventeen of the last eighteen months, increased $5.1 billion or 1.0 percent to $522.1 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 0.5 percent September increase. Shipments, also up seventeen of the last eighteen months, increased $10.2 billion or 2.0 percent to ...


ISM Non-Manufacturing Index rose to 69.1% in November
Posted: December 3, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Economic activity in the services sector grew in November for the 18th month in a row — with the Services PMI® setting a record for the fifth time in 2021 — say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Services Business Survey Committee: “In November, the Services PMI® registered another all-time high of 69.1 percent, 2.4 percentage points above ...


November Employment rose by 210,000
Unemployment Rate declined to 4.2%

Posted: December 3, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 210,000 in November, and the unemployment rate fell by 0.4 percentage point to 4.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in professional and business services, transportation and warehousing, construction, and manufacturing. Employment in retail ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase 28,000 to 222,000
Posted: December 2, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending November 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 222,000, an increase of 28,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 5,000 from 199,000 to 194,000. The 4-week moving average was 238,750, a decrease of 12,250 from the previous week's revised average. ...



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