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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 202211


Beige Book: Economic Activity was about flat or up slightly
Posted: November 30, 2022 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Economic activity was about flat or up slightly since the previous report, down from the modest average pace of growth in the prior Beige Book period. Five Districts reported slight or modest gains in activity, and the rest experienced either no change or slight-to-modest declines. Interest rates and inflation continued to weigh on activity, ...


Job Openings edged down to 10.3 million in October 2022
Posted: November 30, 2022 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

The number of job openings edged down to 10.3 million on the last business day of October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month the number of hires and total separations changed little at 6.0 million and 5.7 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (4.0 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.4 million) ...


Pending Home Sales down 4.6% in October 2022
Posted: November 30, 2022 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Pending home sales slid for the fifth consecutive month in October, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Three of four U.S. regions recorded month-over-month decreases, and all four regions recorded year-over-year declines in transactions.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings, sank 4.6% to 77.1 in October. Year-over-year, pending transactions slipped by 37.0%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. ...


Chicago Purchasing Managers Index tumbled to 37.2 in November 2022
Posted: November 30, 2022 at 09:45 AM (Wednesday)

The Chicago Business BarometerTM, produced with MNI, tumbled a further eight points to 37.2 in November, contracting for a third consecutive month. Excluding the 2020 pandemic shock, this was the lowest reading since the 2008/09 Global Financial Crisis.

• After marginal improvements in October, only Employment and Inventories recorded November upticks. All other indexes saw marked declines. Production, New Orders and Order Backlogs fell further to June 2020 lows. Only Inventories and Prices Paid remained expansionary. ...


3Q2022 GDP preliminary estimate increased 2.9%
Posted: November 30, 2022 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent in the third quarter of 2022 (table 1), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP decreased 0.6 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for ...


ADP National Employment Report Increased by 127,000 jobs in November 2022
Posted: November 30, 2022 at 08:15 AM (Wednesday)

Private sector employment increased by 127,000 jobs in November and annual pay was up 7.6 percent year-over-year, according to the November ADP® National Employment ReportTM produced by the ADP Research Institute® in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab ...


Purchase Apps Down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: November 30, 2022 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 0.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 25, 2022. This week’s results include an adjustment for the observance of the ...


Consumer Confidence decreased in November 2022 to 100.2
Posted: November 29, 2022 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® decreased in November after also losing ground in October. The Index now stands at 100.2 (1985=100), down from 102.2 in October. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—decreased to 137.4 from 138.7 last month. The ...


S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices decrease 1.0% in September 2022
Posted: November 29, 2022 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for September 2022 show that home price gains declined across the United States.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 10.6% annual gain in September, down from 12.9% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 9.7%, down from ...


Paychex-IHS Markit Small Business Jobs Index moderated slightly to 99.38 in November 2022
Posted: November 29, 2022 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The rate of job growth and hourly earnings growth held relatively steady at U.S. small businesses in November, according to the latest Paychex | IHS Markit Small Business Employment Watch. The Small Business Jobs Index moderated slightly -0.05 percent from the previous month and stands at 99.38. At 5.04 percent, the pace of hourly earnings ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity growth abated in November 2022
Posted: November 28, 2022 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Growth in Texas factory activity abated in November, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell five points to near zero, suggesting little change in output ...


New Home Sales in October 2022 at annual rate of 632,000
Posted: November 23, 2022 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

New Home Sales
Sales of new single‐family houses in October 2022 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 632,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 7.5 percent (±20.8 percent)* above the revised September rate of 588,000, but is 5.8 ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence fell in November 2022 to 56.8
Posted: November 23, 2022 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Consumer sentiment declined 5% below October, eroding about one-third of the overall gain seen since the historic low in June, according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

Buying conditions for durables, which had markedly improved last month, decreased most sharply in November, falling back 19% on the basis of high interest rates as well as continued high prices, said U-M economist Joanne Hsu, director of the surveys. Long-term business ...


October 2022 New Orders for Durable Goods increased 1.0%, Ex-Trans up 0.5%
Posted: November 23, 2022 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in October, up seven of the last eight months, increased $2.8 billion or 1.0 percent to $277.4 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 0.3 percent September increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.5 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase 17,000 to 240,000
Posted: November 23, 2022 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

In the week ending November 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 240,000, an increase of 17,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 222,000 to 223,000. The 4-week moving average was 226,750, an increase of 5,500 from the previous week's revised average. ...


Purchase Apps Up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: November 23, 2022 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 2.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 18, 2022. Last week’s results include an adjustment for the observance of ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity edged up to -9 in November 2022
Posted: November 22, 2022 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Some Fifth District manufacturing firms reported softening conditions in November, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index remained negative but edged up from −10 in October to −9 in November. Of its three component indexes, the indexes for shipments and ...


Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Survey suggest weakened nonmanufacturing activity in November 2022
Posted: November 22, 2022 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Responses to the November Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest weakened nonmanufacturing activity in the region. The index for general activity at the firm level fell into negative territory, and the index for new orders remained negative. The index for sales/revenues declined sharply but remained positive. The full-time ...


Chicago Fed National Activity Index Suggests slower economic growth in October 2022
Posted: November 21, 2022 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to –0.05 in October from +0.17 in September. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made negative contributions in October, and three categories deteriorated from September. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved down to +0.09 ...


U.S. Leading Economic Index decreased by 0.8% in October 2022
Posted: November 18, 2022 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. decreased by 0.8 percent in October 2022 to 114.9 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.5 percent in September. The LEI is now down 3.2 percent over the six-month period between April and October 2022, a reversal from its 0.5 percent growth over the previous ...


Existing-Home Sales fell 5.9% in October 2022
Posted: November 18, 2022 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Existing-home sales retreated for the ninth straight month in October, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. All four major U.S. regions registered month-over-month and year-over-year declines.

Total existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – decreased 5.9% from September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.43 million in October. Year-over-year, sales dropped by 28.4% (down from 6.19 ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity declined again in November 2022
Posted: November 17, 2022 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity declined at a similar pace compared to last month, while expectations for future activity were mostly flat or slightly positive. The monthly index of raw materials prices continued to slow in November and decreased compared to a year ago. Finished goods price indexes increased slightly from a month ago ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease 4,000 to 222,000
Posted: November 17, 2022 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending November 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 222,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 225,000 to 226,000. The 4-week moving average was 221,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's revised average. ...


Philadelphia Fed Mfg Outlook Activity continued to decline in November 2022
Posted: November 17, 2022 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Manufacturing activity in the region continued to decline, according to the firms responding to the November Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The general activity index declined further, the new orders index remained negative, and the shipments index remained positive but low. The employment index declined but continued to suggest ...


October 2022 Housing Starts Decreased 4.2%, Permits down 2.4%
Posted: November 17, 2022 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Building Permits
Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,526,000. This is 2.4 percent below the revised September rate of 1,564,000 and is 10.1 percent below the October 2021 rate of 1,698,000. Single‐family authorizations in October were at a rate of 839,000; this ...


Treasury International Capital Data for September 2022
Posted: November 16, 2022 at 04:00 PM (Wednesday)

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for September 2022. The sum total in September of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a net TIC inflow of $30.9 billion. Of this, net foreign private inflows were $48.5 billion, and ...


Business Inventories up 0.4% in September 2022
Posted: November 16, 2022 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for September, adjusted for seasonal and trading day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,847.9 billion, up 0.2 percent (±0.2 percent)* from August 2022 and was up 11.5 percent (±0.2 percent) from ...


NAHB Builder Confidence dropped 5 points to 33 in November 2022
Posted: November 16, 2022 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Elevated interest rates, stubbornly high building material costs and declining affordability conditions that are pushing more buyers to the sidelines continue to drag down builder sentiment.

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes posted its 11th straight monthly decline in November, dropping five points to 33, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. This ...


October 2022 Industrial Production decreased 0.1%, Capacity Utilization decreased to 79.9%
Posted: November 16, 2022 at 09:16 AM (Wednesday)

Industrial production decreased 0.1 percent in October, and its gain in September was revised down to 0.1 percent. Manufacturing output edged up 0.1 percent in October, and its increases in July, August, and September were all lower than previously reported. In October, the index for mining stepped down 0.4 percent, and the index for ...


U.S. Import Price Index decreased 0.2% in October 2022
Posted: November 16, 2022 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Prices for U.S. imports declined 0.2 percent in October, after falling 1.1 percent the previous month, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Lower fuel and nonfuel prices contributed to the October drop in U.S. import prices. U.S. export prices decreased 0.3 percent in October following a 1.5-percent decline ...


U.S. Retail Sales for October 2022 up 1.3%, Ex-Auto up 1.3%
Posted: November 16, 2022 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October 2022, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $694.5 billion, up 1.3 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and 8.3 percent (±0.7 percent) above October 2021. Total sales for the August 2022 through ...


Purchase Apps Up, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: November 16, 2022 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 2.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 11, 2022. This week’s results include an adjustment for the observance of ...


Producer Price Index increased 0.2% in October 2022, ex Fd & Engy up 0.2%
Posted: November 15, 2022 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.2 percent in October, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices rose 0.2 percent in September and were unchanged in August. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand advanced 8.0 percent for the 12 months ended ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions edged slightly higher in November 2022
Posted: November 15, 2022 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Business activity edged slightly higher in New York State, according to firms responding to the November 2022 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index climbed fourteen points to 4.5. New orders decreased slightly, while shipments expanded modestly. Delivery times were little changed, and inventories ...


Philadelphia Fed Survey of Forecasters Predict Lower Growth and Higher Unemployment Rate
Posted: November 14, 2022 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The outlook for the U.S. economy looks weaker now than it did three months ago, according to 38 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters predict the economy will expand at an annual rate of 1.0 percent this quarter, down from the prediction of 1.2 percent in the last survey. Over the next three ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Preliminary November Results fell to 54.7
Posted: November 11, 2022 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer sentiment fell about 9% below October, erasing about half of the gains that had been recorded since the historic low in June. All components of the index declined from last month, but buying conditions for durables, which had markedly improved last month, decreased most sharply in November, falling back 21% on the basis of high ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase 7,000 to 225,000
Posted: November 10, 2022 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending November 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 225,000, an increase of 7,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 217,000 to 218,000. The 4-week moving average was 218,750, a decrease of 250 from the previous week's revised average. The ...


Consumer Price Index increased 0.4% in October 2022, Ex Fd & Engy up 0.3%
Posted: November 10, 2022 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 7.7 percent before ...


Real Average Hourly Earnings decreased 0.1% in October 2022
Posted: November 10, 2022 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

All employees
Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.1 percent from September to October, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from an increase of 0.4 percent in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.4 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All ...


Wholesale Inventories up 0.6% in September 2022
Posted: November 9, 2022 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

September 2022 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading day differences but not for price changes, were $699.9 billion, up 0.4 percent (±0.4 percent)* from the revised August level and were up 14.4 percent (±0.5 percent) from the revised September ...


Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine Index fell in October 2022 to 161.3
Posted: November 9, 2022 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

The Conference Board®−Emsi Burning Glass® Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Index fell in October to 161.3 (July 2018=100), down from 162.7 in September. The 0.9 percent decrease between October and September follows a 4.3 percent increase between August and September. Overall, the Index is down 4.3 percent from a ...


Purchase Apps Down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: November 9, 2022 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 0.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 4, 2022.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 4 ...


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined to 91.3 in October 2022
Posted: November 8, 2022 at 07:00 AM (Tuesday)

NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index declined 0.8 points in October to 91.3, which is the 10th consecutive month below the 49-year average of 98. Thirty-three percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business, three points higher than September’s reading and four points lower than ...


Consumer Credit Increased at an annual rate of 6.4% in September 2022
Posted: November 7, 2022 at 03:00 PM (Monday)

Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.8 percent during the third quarter. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 12.9 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of rate of 4.9 percent. In September, consumer credit increased at an annual rate of ...


Employment Trends Index declined in October 2022 to 119.57
Posted: November 7, 2022 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

he Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) declined in October to 119.57, down from an upwardly revised 120.73 in September 2022. The Employment Trends Index is a leading composite index for employment. When the index increases, employment is likely to increase as well, and vice versa. Turning points in the index indicate that a ...


October 2022 Employment increased by 261,000
Unemployment Rate rose to 3.7%

Posted: November 4, 2022 at 08:32 AM (Friday)

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 261,000 in October, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in health care, professional and technical services, and manufacturing.

This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry. For more ...


New orders for manufactured goods increased 0.4% in September 2022
Posted: November 3, 2022 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Summary
New orders for manufactured goods in September, up eleven of the last twelve months, increased $1.5 billion or 0.3 percent to $551.0 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 0.2 percent August increase. Shipments, up eighteen of the last nineteen months, increased $1.1 billion or 0.2 percent to $550.3 billion. ...


ISM Non-Manufacturing Index dropped to 54.4% in October 2022
Posted: November 3, 2022 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Economic activity in the services sector grew in October for the 29th month in a row — with the Services PMI® registering 54.4 percent — say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Services Business Survey Committee: “In October, the Services PMI® registered 54.4 percent, 2.3 percentage points lower than September’s reading ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease 1,000 to 217,000
Posted: November 3, 2022 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending October 29, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 217,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 217,000 to 218,000. The 4-week moving average was 218,750, a decrease of 500 from the previous week's revised average. The ...


3Q2022 Productivity Growth increased 0.3%
Posted: November 3, 2022 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 0.3 percent in the third quarter of 2022, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output increased 2.8 percent and hours worked increased 2.4 percent. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates.) From the same quarter a year ago, ...



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