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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 201208



Chicago Purchasing Managers Index Still Anemic at 53.0
Posted: August 31, 2012 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The Chicago Purchasing Managers reported the CHICAGO BUSINESS BAROMETER posted a small gain in August but remained steady for the last four months. Among the Business Activity measures, declines into contraction for both Order Backlogs and Supplier Deliveries offset minor gains in Production, New Orders, and Employment in ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Improved to 74.3
Posted: August 31, 2012 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer confidence improved slightly in the August survey due to consumers more favorable evaluations of their present financial situation. Rather than citing income changes, consumers were more likely to cite reductions in the amount of their outstanding debt. These improvements, however, did not extend into the future, as their ...


New orders for manufactured goods increased 2.8%
Posted: August 31, 2012 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

New orders for manufactured goods in July, up two of the last three months, increased $12.9 billion or 2.8 percent to $478.6 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 0.5 percent June decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.7 ...


DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer declined by 0.5%
Posted: August 30, 2012 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

For the week ending August 18, 2012, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer dropped by -0.5 percent following the slight decreases for the last two weeks. Chain Store Sales continued to fall for the fourth consecutive week and decreased sharply this week despite the back-to-school sales season. Electric Output also dropped considerably this week ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Improved Moderately
Posted: August 30, 2012 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Growth in Tenth District manufacturing activity improved moderately in August, and producers optimism continued to edge higher. Price indexes were relatively stable, although the share of producers planning to raise prices increased further. Several respondents said the ongoing drought has negatively affected their business, mainly through ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Unchanged at 374,000
Posted: August 30, 2012 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending August 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 374,000, unchanged from the previous week's revised figure of 374,000. The 4-week moving average was 370,250, an increase of 1,500 from the previous week's revised average ...


Personal Income increased 0.3%, Spending increased 0.4%
Posted: August 30, 2012 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Personal income increased $42.3 billion, or 0.3 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $39.9 billion, or 0.3 percent, in July, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $46.0 billion, or 0.4 percent. In June, personal income increased $46.1 billion, or 0.3 percent, ...


Beige Book: Economic Activity Continued to Expand Gradually
Posted: August 29, 2012 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts suggest economic activity continued to expand gradually in July and early August across most regions and sectors. Six Districts indicated the local economy continued to expand at a modest pace and another three cited moderate growth; among the latter, Chicago noted that the pace of growth ...


Pending Home Sales Index rose 2.4%
Posted: August 29, 2012 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Pending home sales rose in July to the highest level in over two years and remain well above year-ago levels, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, rose 2.4 percent to 101.7 in July from 99.3 in June and is 12.4 percent above July 2011 when it was 90.5. The data reflect contracts but not closings. ...


2Q2012 GDP preliminary estimate up 1.7%
Posted: August 29, 2012 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 1.7 percent in the second quarter of 2012 (that is, from the first quarter to the second quarter), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: August 29, 2012 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 4.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 24, 2012.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 4.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 5 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 6 ...


Consumer Confidence declined in August to 60.6
Posted: August 28, 2012 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had improved in July, declined in August. The Index now stands at 60.6 (1985=100), down from 65.4 in July. The Expectations Index decreased to 70.5 from 78.4. The Present Situation Index, however, was virtually unchanged, at 45.8 versus 45.9 a ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity Index gained 8 to −9
Posted: August 28, 2012 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Manufacturing activity in the central Atlantic region contracted at a less pronounced rate this month, after deteriorating in July, according to the Richmond Fed's latest seasonally adjusted survey. Looking at the main components of activity, shipments edged higher, employment turned negative, and the weakness in new orders moderated ...


S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices increased 0.1%
Posted: August 28, 2012 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

Data through June 2012, released today by S&P Dow Jones Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, showed that all three headline composites ended the second quarter of 2012 with positive annual growth rates for the first time since the summer of 2010. The national composite was up 1.2% in ...


ICSC Chain Store Sales edged up 0.5% in Aug 25 Wk
Posted: August 28, 2012 at 07:45 AM (Tuesday)

The International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs Retail Chain Store Sales Index edged up 0.5% in the week ended Saturday from the week before on a seasonally adjusted, comparable-store basis, as back-to-school shopping helped to reverse recent declines.

"A bout of cooler weather nationally and more school systems beginning their new school year gave consumers the motivation they needed to spend, helping to lift overall back-to-school shopping and weekly sales this past week," said ICSC Chief Economist Michael Niemira. ...


Texas Manufacturing Activity Slower Growth Continues in August
Posted: August 27, 2012 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity increased but at a slower pace in August, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell from 12 to 6.4, suggesting softer ...


Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index Increased 1.8%
Posted: August 27, 2012 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

The Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index (CFMMI) increased 1.8% in July, to a seasonally adjusted level of 95.6 (2007 = 100). Revised data show the index was up 0.9% in June. The Federal Reserve Board’s industrial production index for manufacturing (IPMFG) increased 0.5% in July. Regional output rose 12.5% in July from a year earlier, ...


New Orders for Durable Goods Increased 4.2%, Ex-Trans Down 0.4%
Posted: August 24, 2012 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

New orders for manufactured durable goods in July increased $9.4 billion or 4.2 percent to $230.7 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up three consecutive months, followed a 1.6 percent June increase. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.4 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 5.7 ...


New Home Sales in July at annual rate of 372,000
Posted: August 23, 2012 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Sales of new single-family houses in July 2012 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 372,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 3.6 percent (±14.1%) above the revised June rate of 359,000 and is 25.3 percent (±18.2%) above the July ...


July Mass Layoffs total 1,340 actions, 137,420 workers
Posted: August 23, 2012 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Employers took 1,340 mass layoff actions in July involving 137,420 workers, seasonally adjusted, as measured by new filings for unemployment insurance benefits during the month, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Each mass layoff involved at least 50 workers from a single employer. Mass layoff events in July increased by 23 ...


DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer declined by 0.1%
Posted: August 23, 2012 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

For the week ending August 11, 2012, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer dropped by -0.1 percent following the slight decrease in the prior week. The drop this week reflects declines in Electric Output and Truck Production, which have been decreasing for two weeks in a row. Also, Chain Store Sales dropped this week again for the third ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 4,000 to 372,000
Posted: August 23, 2012 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending August 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 372,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 368,000. The 4-week moving average was 368,000, an increase of 3,750 from the previous week's revised average ...


Existing-Home Sales increased 2.3% in July
Posted: August 22, 2012 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Sales of existing homes rose in July even with constraints of affordable inventory, and the national median price is showing five consecutive months of year-over-year increases, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Monthly sales rose in every region but the West, where inventory is ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: August 22, 2012 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 7.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 17, 2012.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 7.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 8 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 9 ...


ICSC Chain Store Sales slumped 1.5% in Aug 18 Wk
Posted: August 21, 2012 at 07:45 AM (Tuesday)

U.S. chain-store sales rose 3.1 percent year on year for the week that ended on August 18, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) and Goldman Sachs. However, on a week-to-week basis, comparable-store sales slumped 1.5 percent.

“Retail sales continue to be mixed with weekly sales growth slipping but yearly momentum is relatively healthy,” said Michael Niemira, ICSC's vice president of research and chief economist. “Consumer traffic was a bit stronger over the past week, according to the ...


Chicago Fed National Activity Index increased in July
Posted: August 20, 2012 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to –0.13 in July from –0.34 in June. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index improved from June, but only the production and income category made a positive contribution ...


U.S. Leading Economic Index increased 0.4%
Posted: August 17, 2012 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.4 percent in July to 95.8 (2004 = 100), following a 0.4 percent decline in June, and a 0.3 percent increase in May.

With this month’s increase, the U.S. LEI returned to its May level. The majority of its components improved, led by large contributions from housing permits and initial unemployment claims. The LEI’s six-month growth rate seems to be stabilizing, pointing to a continuing ...


Philadelphia Fed July Outlook Suggest Continued Weakness
Posted: August 16, 2012 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Firms responding to the August Business Outlook Survey continued to report weakness in overall business conditions. The survey’s indicators for general activity and new orders remained negative for the fourth consecutive month, but both increased slightly from July. Firms also reported slight overall declines in employment and shorter work ...


DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer was unch%
Posted: August 16, 2012 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

For the week ending August 4, 2012, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer remained unchanged following leveling-off in the prior week. Auto Production increased for three consecutive weeks and Railroad Freight Carloadings picked up after decreases for three weeks in a row. However, these increases were offset by decreases in other components; ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 2,000 to 366,000
Posted: August 16, 2012 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending August 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 366,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 364,000. The 4-week moving average was 363,750, a decrease of 5,500 from the previous week's revised average ...


July Housing Starts down 1.1%, Permits up 6.8%
Posted: August 16, 2012 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

BUILDING PERMITS
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 812,000. This is 6.8 percent (±1.5%) above the revised June rate of 760,000 and is 29.5 percent (±1.6%) above the July 2011 estimate of 627,000. Single-family authorizations in July were at a rate of 513,000; this ...


Builder Confidence Gains Two Points in August
Posted: August 15, 2012 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes improved for a fourth consecutive month in August with a two-point gain to 37 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), released today. This gain builds on a six-point increase in July and brings the index to its highest level ...


Industrial Production increased 0.6%
Capacity Utilization increased to 79.3%

Posted: August 15, 2012 at 09:15 AM (Wednesday)

Industrial production increased 0.6 percent in July after having risen 0.1 percent in both May and June. Revisions to the rates of change for recent months left the level of the index in June little changed from its previous estimate. Manufacturing output rose 0.5 percent in July, the same rate of increase as was recorded for June. In July, ...


Treasury International Capital Data for June 2012
Posted: August 15, 2012 at 09:00 AM (Wednesday)

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for June 2012. The sum total in June of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a monthly net TIC inflow of $16.7 billion. Of this, net foreign private inflows were $28.8 billion, and ...


Consumer Price Index unch% in July, Ex Fd & Engy up 0.1%
Posted: August 15, 2012 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in July on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.

Major indexes posted small movements in July, with a 0.3 percent decline in the ...


Real Average Hourly Earnings unch% in July
Posted: August 15, 2012 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Real average hourly earnings for all employees was unchanged from June to July, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from a 0.1 percent increase in average hourly earnings combined with an unchanged Consumer Price Index for All Urban ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions Deteriorate
Posted: August 15, 2012 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The August Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers deteriorated over the month. The general business conditions index slipped below zero for the first time since October 2011, falling thirteen points to -5.9. At -5.5, the new orders index was below zero for a second consecutive month, and ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: August 15, 2012 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 4.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 10, 2012.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 4.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 4.7 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 5 ...


Business Inventories up 0.1% in June
Posted: August 14, 2012 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that the combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for June, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,229.7 billion, down 1.1 percent (±0.2%) from May 2012 and up 3.0 percent (±0.4%) from ...


Producer Price Index up 0.3% in July, ex Fd & Engy up 0.4%
Posted: August 14, 2012 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The Producer Price Index for finished goods rose 0.3 percent in July, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This advance followed a 0.1-percent increase in June and a 1.0-percent decline in May. At the earlier stages of processing, prices received by manufacturers of intermediate goods moved down 0.9 percent ...


U.S. Retail Sales for July up 0.8%, Ex-Auto up 0.8%
Posted: August 14, 2012 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $403.9 billion, an increase of 0.8 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month and 4.1 percent (±0.7%) above July 2011. Total sales ...


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index down 0.2 point to 91.2
Posted: August 14, 2012 at 07:45 AM (Tuesday)

The Optimism Index gave up 0.2 points, falling to 91.2. Owner optimism remains at recession levels and has stayed in a recession zone for years, oscillating between 86.5 (in July 2009) and 94.5 (February 2012) since the recession officially ended in June 2009. Prior to 2008, the Index averaged 100, significantly above the current reading. ...


ICSC Chain Store Sales edged down 0.3% in Aug 11 Wk
Posted: August 14, 2012 at 07:45 AM (Tuesday)

The International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs Retail Chain Store Sales Index edged down 0.3% in the week ended Saturday from the week before on a seasonally adjusted, comparable-store basis, as consumers reverted back to conservative shopping patterns.

"Sales were mixed this past week as the year-over-year results were strong but on a weekly basis the sequential change was slightly down for the prior week," said ICSC Chief Economist Michael Niemira. ...


Forecasters Revise Downward Their Estimates for Growth
Posted: August 10, 2012 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The outlook for growth in the U.S. economy looks weaker now than it did three months ago, according to 48 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters expect real GDP to grow at an annual rate of 1.6 percent this quarter, down from the previous estimate of 2.5 percent. Over the next three quarters, they ...


U.S. Import Price Index Declined 0.6% in July
Posted: August 10, 2012 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

U.S. import prices declined 0.6 percent in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, after decreasing 2.4 percent in June and 1.5 percent in May. In each of the past three months, falling prices for both fuel and nonfuel imports contributed to the overall drop. In contrast, U.S. export prices rose 0.5 percent in July following ...


DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer was unch%
Posted: August 9, 2012 at 12:25 PM (Thursday)

For the week ending July 28, 2012, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer remained the same from the prior week. Steel Production increased marginally this week after being stagnant for three weeks. Auto and Truck Production rose by over +5 percent, respectively. In contrast, Railroad Freight Carloadings decreased for the third consecutive week. ...


Wholesale Inventories Down 0.2% in June
Posted: August 9, 2012 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that June 2012 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $402.9 billion, down 1.4 percent (+/-0.5) from the revised May level, but were up 3.1 percent (+/-0.9%) from ...


Goods and Services Deficit Decreased in June 2012
Posted: August 9, 2012 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The Nation’s international trade balance in goods and services improved to -$42.9 billion in June from -$48.0 billion in May (revised), as exports increased and imports decreased.

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that total June exports of $185.0 billion and imports of $227.9 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $42.9 billion, down from $48.0 billion in ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 6,000 to 361,000
Posted: August 9, 2012 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending August 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 361,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 367,000. The 4-week moving average was 368,250, an increase of 2,250 from the previous week's revised average ...


2Q2012 Productivity Growth Increased 1.6%
Posted: August 8, 2012 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased at a 1.6 percent annual rate during the second quarter of 2012, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The increase in productivity reflects increases of 2.0 percent in output and 0.4 percent in hours worked. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally ...



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The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission was created to examine the causes, domestic and global, of the current financial and economic crisis in the United States.

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