Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have moderated since early last year but remain strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are moving into better balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the ...

• The Chicago Business Barometer™, produced with MNI, tempered by -1.2 points to 46.0 from December’s revised figure of 47.2. This is the second consecutive monthly fall, keeping the Chicago ReportTM in contractionary territory, although still +0.6 points above the 2023 average and above the levels seen in both September 2023 and October 2023. ...

Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in December 2023, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries increased 0.9 percent and benefit costs increased 0.7 percent from September 2023. (See tables A, 1, 2, ...

Private sector employment increased by 107,000 jobs in January and annual pay was up 5.2 percent year-over-year, according to the January ADP® National Employment ReportTM produced by the ADP Research Institute® in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab ...

Mortgage applications decreased 7.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 26, 2024. Last week's results included an adjustment to account for the MLK holiday.The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan ...

The number of job openings changed little at 9.0 million on the last business day of December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.6 million and 5.4 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.4 million) and layoffs and discharges ...

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® rose in January to 114.8 (1985=100), up from a revised 108.0 in December. The reading was the highest since December 2021, and marked the third straight monthly increase. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—surged to ...

S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for November 2023 show that 12 out of the 20 major metro markets reported month-over-month price ...

According to the Paychex Small Business Employment Watch, January marks the 34th consecutive month of job growth for U.S. small businesses. Wage growth for workers continues to stabilize in the new year with hourly earnings growth remaining essentially unchanged since November ...

Texas factory activity contracted in January after stabilizing in December, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, dropped 17 points to -15.4—its lowest reading ...

Pending home sales in December elevated 8.3%, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The Midwest, South and West posted monthly gains in transactions while the Northeast recorded a loss. The Midwest, South and West also registered year-over-year increases while the Northeast had a decline in transactions compared to ...

Personal income increased $60.0 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in December, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 2 and 3). Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $51.8 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) ...

New Home Sales
Sales of new single‐family houses in December 2023 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 664,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 8.0 percent (±24.2 percent)* above the revised November rate of 615,000 and is 4.4 ...

Tenth District manufacturing activity declined moderately, and expectations for future activity expanded further. Prices paid for raw materials in January increased sharply relative to last month and this time last year. Heading forward, raw materials prices are expected to continue increasing at a faster pace than finished ...

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 4.9 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (refer to "Source Data for the Advance Estimate" on page 3). The "second" estimate for the fourth quarter, based on more complete data, will be ...

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in December, up three of the last four months, increased $0.1
billion or virtually unchanged to $295.6 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a
5.5 percent November increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.6 percent. Excluding
defense, new ...

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to –0.15 in December from +0.01 in November. All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from November, and three categories made negative contributions in December. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved down to –0.28 in December ...

n the week ending January 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 214,000, an increase of
25,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 187,000 to
189,000. The 4-week moving average was 202,250, a decrease of 1,500 from the previous week's revised ...

Mortgage applications increased 3.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 19, 2024. The results include an adjustment to account for the MLK holiday.The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application ...

Fifth District manufacturing activity remained sluggish in January, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index decreased from −11 in December to −15 in January. Of its three component indexes, shipments edged up from −17 to −15, new orders edged down from −14 to −16, ...

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. fell by 0.1 percent in December 2023 to 103.1 (2016=100), following a 0.5 percent decline in November. The LEI contracted by 2.9 percent over the six-month period between June and December 2023, a smaller decrease than its 4.3 percent contraction over the previous ...

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for November 2023. The sum total in November of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a net TIC inflow of $260.2 billion. Of this, net foreign private inflows were $242.0 billion, and ...

Existing-home sales retreated in December, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Among the four major U.S. regions, sales slipped in the Midwest and South, rose in the West and were unchanged in the Northeast. All four regions experienced year-over-year ...

Consumer sentiment soared 13% in January to reach its highest level since July 2021, showing that the sharp increase in December was no fluke. Consumer views were supported by confidence that inflation has turned a corner and strengthening income expectations. Over the last two months, sentiment has climbed a cumulative 29%, the largest ...

Building Permits
Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,495,000. This is 1.9 percent above the revised November rate of 1,467,000 and is 6.1 percent above the December 2022 rate of 1,409,000. Single‐family authorizations in December were at a rate of 994,000; this ...

Manufacturing activity in the region continued to decline overall, according to the firms responding to the January Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments rose but remained negative. The employment index was little changed and continues to suggest mostly steady levels ...

In the week ending January 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 187,000, a decrease of
16,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since September 24, 2022 when
it was 182,000. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 202,000 to 203,000. The ...

Overall Economic Activity
A majority of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts reported little or no change in economic activity since the prior Beige Book period. Of the four Districts that differed, three reported modest growth and one reported a moderate decline. Consumers delivered some seasonal relief over the holidays by meeting ...

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for November, adjusted for seasonal and trading day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,858.8 billion, up 0.2 percent (±0.1 percent) from October 2023 and was up 1.0 percent (±0.3 percent) from ...

Mortgage rates well under 7% over the past month have led to a sharp increase in builder confidence to begin the new year. Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes climbed seven points to 44 in January, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). This ...

Industrial production moved up 0.1 percent in December and declined 3.1 percent at an annual rate in the fourth quarter. Manufacturing output edged up 0.1 percent in December after increasing 0.2 percent in November. The index for utilities declined 1.0 percent in December, while the index for mining rose 0.9 percent. At 102.5 percent of its ...

U.S. import prices were unchanged in December, after declining 0.5 percent in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Import fuel prices decreased 0.3 percent in December and nonfuel prices were unchanged. Prices for U.S. exports fell 0.9 percent in December following a 0.9-percent decline the ...

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for December 2023, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $709.9 billion, up 0.6 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 5.6 percent (±0.7 percent) above December 2022. Total sales for the 12 months of 2023 ...

Mortgage applications increased 10.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 12, 2024. Last week’s results included an adjustment to account for the New ...

Business activity dropped sharply in New York State, according to firms responding to the January 2024 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell twenty-nine points to -43.7, its lowest reading since May 2020. New orders and shipments also posted sharp declines. Unfilled orders continued to ...

The Producer Price Index for final demand fell 0.1 percent in December, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices moved down 0.1 percent in November and 0.4 percent in October. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 1.0 percent in 2023 after increasing 6.4 percent ...

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in December on a seasonally adjusted basis, after rising 0.1 percent in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.4 percent before ...

All employees

Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.2 percent from November to December, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from an increase of 0.4 percent in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of ...

In the week ending January 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 202,000, a decrease of 1,000
from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 202,000 to 203,000. The
4-week moving average was 207,750, a decrease of 250 from the previous week's revised average. The ...

November 2023 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading day differences but not for price changes, were $666.6 billion, virtually unchanged (±0.2 percent)* from the revised October level, but were up 0.5 percent (±0.9 percent)* from the revised ...

The Conference Board−Lightcast Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Index fell in December 2023 to 147.4 (July 2018=100), down from an upwardly revised 148.0 in November. The 0.7 percent decrease between December and November followed a 0.4 percent decline between October and November. Overall, the Index is down 14.0 percent from one ...

Mortgage applications increased 9.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 5, 2024. The results include an adjustment to account for the New ...

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $63.2 billion in November, down $1.3 billion from $64.5 billion in October, revised.

Exports, Imports, and Balance
November exports were $253.7 billion, $4.8 billion less than October exports. November imports were $316.9 billion, $6.1 billion less than October imports. ...

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased 1.3 points in December to 91.9, marking the 24th consecutive month below the 50-year average of 98. Twenty-three percent of small business owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business, up one point from last month, and replacing labor quality ...

In November, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.7 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 17.7 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 1.5 percent.

...

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased in December to 113.15, up from a downwardly revised 112.48 in November. The Employment Trends Index is a leading composite index for employment. When the Index increases, employment is likely to grow as well, and vice versa. Turning points in the Index indicate that a change in ...

Summary
New orders for manufactured goods in November, up three of the last four months, increased $14.9 billion or 2.6 percent to $592.9 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 3.4 percent October decrease. Shipments, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, increased $2.7 billion or 0.5 percent to $580.7 ...

Economic activity in the services sector expanded in December for the 12th consecutive month as the Services PMI® registered 50.6 percent, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM® Report On Business®. The sector has grown in 42 of the last 43 months, with the lone contraction in ...

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 216,000 in December, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in government, health care, social assistance, and construction, while transportation and warehousing ...

In the week ending December 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 202,000, a decrease of
18,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 218,000 to
220,000. The 4-week moving average was 207,750, a decrease of 4,750 from the previous week's revised ...