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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 201111



Beige Book: Economic Activity Increased at a Slow to Moderate Pace
Posted: November 30, 2011 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Overall economic activity increased at a slow to moderate pace since the previous report across all Federal Reserve Districts except St. Louis, which reported a decline in economic activity. District reports indicated that consumer spending rose modestly during the reporting period. Motor vehicle sales increased in a number of Districts, ...


Pending Home Sales surged 10.4%
Posted: November 30, 2011 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Pending home sales rose strongly in October and remain above year-ago levels, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, surged 10.4 percent to 93.3 in October from 84.5 in September and is 9.2 percent above October 2010 when it stood at 85.5. The data reflects contracts but not closings. ...


Chicago Purchasing Managers Index Rebounded to 62.6
Posted: November 30, 2011 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

The Chicago Purchasing Managers reported the CHICAGO BUSINESS BAROMETER rebounded to a 7-month high in November and marked the 26th month of expansion.

BUSINESS ACTIVITY:
EMPLOYMENT reversed half of its gains since August;
NEW ORDERS expanded to an 8-month high and
PRODUCTION expanded to a 7-month high; P
RICES PAID expanded at the slowest rate in 14-months. ...


New York Purchasing Managers Business Activity Contracted
Posted: November 30, 2011 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

New York City business activity contracted for the third time in the last four months, according to the survey taken by the Institute for Supply Management-New York (ISM-NY). The Current Business Conditions index came in at 47.2 in November from 44.0 in October.

Future optimism surged by the most in over two years, but it’s too soon to consider this an all-clear signal yet. The Six-Month Outlook index jumped to 71.0 in November from 54.9 in October. ...


3Q Productivity Growth Increased 2.3%
Posted: November 30, 2011 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased at a 2.3 percent annual rate during the third quarter of 2011, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, with output and hours worked rising 3.2 percent and 0.8 percent, respectively. From the third quarter of 2010 to the third quarter of 2011, output increased 2.4 percent as ...


ADP National Employment Report increased by 206,000
Posted: November 30, 2011 at 08:15 AM (Wednesday)

Private-sector employment increased by 206,000 from October to November on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the latest ADP National Employment Report® released today. The ADP National Employment Report, created by Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP®), in partnership with Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, is derived from actual payroll ...


Challenger Layoffs Decrease 0.7% in November
Posted: November 30, 2011 at 07:30 AM (Wednesday)

The number of planned layoffs announced in November remained virtually unchanged from the previous month, as US-based employers reported job cuts totaling 42,474, down 0.7 percent from 42,759 in October, according to the latest report on downsizing activity from global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: November 30, 2011 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 11.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 25, 2011. This week’s results include an adjustment to account for the ...


Consumer Confidence Improved in November
Posted: November 29, 2011 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had declined in October, improved in November. The Index now stands at 56.0 (1985=100), up from 40.9 in October. The Present Situation Index increased to 38.3 from 27.1. The Expectations Index rose to 67.8 from 50.0.

Confidence has bounced back to levels last seen during the summer (July 2011, 59.2). Consumers' assessment of current conditions finally improved, after six months of steady declines. Consumers' apprehension regarding the short-term outlook for business conditions, jobs and ...


S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Weaken
Posted: November 29, 2011 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

Data through September 2011, released today by S&P Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show that nationally home prices did not register a significant change in the third quarter of 2011, with the U.S. National Home Price Index up by only 0.1% from its second quarter level. The ...


ICSC Chain Store Sales increased 1.7% in Nov 26 Wk
Posted: November 29, 2011 at 07:45 AM (Tuesday)

The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) reported that chain store sales rose by the most since the week ending June 25th, gaining 1.7% from the prior week, while growing 4.0% over the prior-year period during the week ending Nov 26th which matched the strongest gain since July 30th. According to the ICSC-Goldman Sachs’ ...


Texas Manufacturing Activity Declines
Posted: November 28, 2011 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity decreased in November, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, dipped from 4.1 to –5.1, registering its first negative reading in ...


New Home Sales in October at annual rate of 307,000
Posted: November 28, 2011 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

Sales of new single-family houses in October 2011 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 307,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 1.3 percent (±19.7%) above the revised September rate of 303,000 and is 8.9 percent (±17.2%) above the ...


Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index increased 0.7%
Posted: November 28, 2011 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

The Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index (CFMMI) increased 0.7% in October, to a seasonally adjusted level of 85.5 (2007 = 100). Revised data show the index increased 0.2% in September. The Federal Reserve Board’s industrial production index for manufacturing (IPMFG) increased 0.5% in October. Regional output in October rose 7.3% from a ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Jumped to 64.1
Posted: November 23, 2011 at 11:00 AM (Wednesday)

Consumer confidence continued to improve in November from its August low when pessimism was dominated by negative reactions to the Congressional debate on the debt ceiling. The failure of the super committee to reach an agreement comes at a time when consumers had anticipated a slowly improving economy, and more importantly, slow gains ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Eased Slightly
Posted: November 23, 2011 at 11:00 AM (Wednesday)

Growth in Tenth District manufacturing activity eased slightly in November, but expectations for future months remained relatively solid. Price indexes were mixed, with deceleration in monthly prices but continued expectations for moderate price increases in the ...


DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer increased 0.1%
Posted: November 23, 2011 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

For the week ending November 12, 2011, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer increased by +0.1 percent, following a gain of +0.4 percent in the prior week. On the consumption side, inflation-adjusted chain store sales extended their gains to three consecutive weeks, but their growth pace slowed to +0.2 percent. Mortgage applications lost their ...


Personal Income increased 0.4%, Spending up 0.1%
Posted: November 23, 2011 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Personal income increased $48.1 billion, or 0.4 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $30.2 billion, or 0.3 percent, in October, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $8.2 billion, or 0.1 percent. In September, personal income increased $15.5 billion, or 0.1 percent, ...


Weekly initial unemployment claims increase 2,000 to 393,000
Posted: November 23, 2011 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

In the week ending November 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 393,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 391,000. The 4-week moving average was 394,250, a decrease of 3,250 from the previous week's revised average ...


New Orders for Durable Goods Decreased 0.7%, Ex-Trans up 0.7%
Posted: November 23, 2011 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

New orders for manufactured durable goods in October decreased $1.4 billion or 0.7 percent to $197.7 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down two consecutive months, followed a 1.5 percent September decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.7 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.2 ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: November 23, 2011 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 1.2 percent from one week earlier (which included the Veterans Day holiday), according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 18, 2011.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 8.6 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 4.0 ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity up 6 to 0
Posted: November 22, 2011 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Manufacturing activity in the central Atlantic region stabilized in November following four months of contraction, according to the Richmond Fed's latest survey. The index of overall activity steadied as a slightly positive reading for shipments offset a slight decrease in new orders and a flat reading in employment. Modest improvement was ...


October Mass Layoffs total 1,353 actions, 118,689 workers
Posted: November 22, 2011 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Employers took 1,353 mass layoff actions in October involving 118,689 workers, seasonally adjusted, as measured by new filings for unemployment insurance benefits during the month, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Each mass layoff involved at least 50 workers from a single employer. The number of mass layoff events in ...


3Q2011 GDP preliminary estimate up 2.0%
Posted: November 22, 2011 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent in the third quarter of 2011 (that is, from the second quarter to the third quarter) according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the ...


ICSC Chain Store Sales decreased 0.9% in Nov 19 Wk
Posted: November 22, 2011 at 07:45 AM (Tuesday)

The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) reported that chain store sales fell for the 10th time in the last 17 weeks and the most since mid-September, declining 0.9% from the prior week, while growing 2.8% over the prior-year period during the week ending Nov 19th. Over the last week, the ICSC‐GS channel‐checking survey found ...


Existing-Home Sales rose 1.4% in October
Posted: November 21, 2011 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

Existing-home sales improved in October while the number of homes on the market continued to decline, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, rose 1.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.97 million in October from a downwardly revised 4.90 million in September, and are 13.5 ...


Chicago Fed National Activity Index edged up in October
Posted: November 21, 2011 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index edged up to –0.13 in October from –0.20 in September. Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index improved from September, and only the consumption and housing category remained negative ...


U.S. Leading Economic Index increased 0.9%
Posted: November 18, 2011 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.9 percent in October to 117.4 (2004 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in September, and a 0.3 percent increase in August.

The October rebound of the LEI — largely due to the sharp pick-up in housing permits — suggests that the risk of an economic downturn has receded. Improving consumer expectations, stock markets, and labor market indicators also contributed to this month’s gain in the LEI as ...


Philadelphia Fed November Outlook Suggest Slight Expansion
Posted: November 17, 2011 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Responses to the Business Outlook Survey this month suggest that regional manufacturing is expanding, but at a slow pace. The survey's broad indicators for activity, shipments, and new orders recorded positive readings this month, but all declined slightly from their October readings. Employment conditions improved, as indicated by increases ...


DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer increased 0.4%
Posted: November 17, 2011 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

For the week ending November 5, 2011, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer rose +0.4 percent, with solid gains in both the consumer and production sectors. On the consumption side, inflation-adjusted chain store sales increased by +1.0 percent on top of +0.7 percent in the prior week, showing a sign of recovery in consumer spending toward ...


Weekly initial unemployment claims decrease 5,000 to 388,000
Posted: November 17, 2011 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending November 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 388,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 393,000. The 4-week moving average was 396,750, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week's revised average ...


October Housing starts down 0.3%, Permits up 10.9%
Posted: November 17, 2011 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

BUILDING PERMITS
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 653,000. This is 10.9 percent (±1.6%) above the revised September rate of 589,000 and is 17.7 percent (±3.4%) above the October 2010 estimate of 555,000. Single-family authorizations in October were at a rate ...


Builder Confidence Rises in November
Posted: November 16, 2011 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes rose by three points to 20 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) for November, released today. The gain builds on a revised three-point increase in October, and brings the confidence gauge to its highest level since May of ...


Industrial Production expanded 0.7%
Capacity Utilization stepped up to 77.8%

Posted: November 16, 2011 at 09:15 AM (Wednesday)

Industrial production expanded 0.7 percent in October after having declined 0.1 percent in September. Previously, industrial production was reported to have gained 0.2 percent in September; most of this revision resulted from lower estimated output for mining. Factory output increased 0.5 percent in October after having risen 0.3 percent ...


Treasury International Capital Data for September 2011
Posted: November 16, 2011 at 09:00 AM (Wednesday)

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for September 2011. Foreign residents increased their holdings of long-term U.S. securities in September — net purchases were $65.8 billion.

Net purchases by private foreign investors were $28.5 billion, and net purchases by foreign official institutions were $37.3 billion. At the same time, U.S. residents decreased their holdings of long-term foreign securities, with net sales of $2.7 billion.

Taking into ...


Consumer Price Index down 0.1% in October, Ex Fd & Engy up 0.1%
Posted: November 16, 2011 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased 0.1 percent in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.5 percent before seasonal adjustment.

A decline in the energy index more than offset small increases in the ...


Real Average Hourly Earnings rose 0.3% in October
Posted: November 16, 2011 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Real average hourly earnings for all employees rose 0.3 percent from September to October, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This increase stems from a 0.2 percent increase in average hourly earnings and a 0.1 percent decline in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: November 16, 2011 at 07:45 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 10.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 11, 2011. This week’s results include an adjustment to account for the Veterans ...


Business Inventories virtually unch% in September
Posted: November 15, 2011 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that the combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for September, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,209.7 billion, up 0.6 percent (±0.3%) from August 2011 and up 11.6 percent (±0.4%) from ...


U.S. Retail Sales for Oct up 0.5%, Ex-Auto up 0.6%
Posted: November 15, 2011 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $397.7 billion, an increase of 0.5 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month and 7.2 percent (±0.7%) above October 2010. Total ...


Producer Price Index down 0.3% in October, ex Fd & Engy unch%
Posted: November 15, 2011 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The Producer Price Index for finished goods declined 0.3 percent in October, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Finished goods prices rose 0.8 percent in September and were unchanged in August. At the earlier stages of processing, the index for intermediate goods moved down 1.1 percent in October and ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions Remain Weak
Posted: November 15, 2011 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers held steady in November. After a string of five consecutive months of negative readings, the general business conditions index rose nine points, to 0.6. While the new orders index edged down to -2.1, indicating that orders were a little lower, the ...


ICSC Chain Store Sales increased 0.3% in Nov 12 Wk
Posted: November 15, 2011 at 07:45 AM (Tuesday)

The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) reported that chain store sales rose for the 3rd straight week but just the 7th time in the last 16 weeks, increasing 0.3% from the prior week, while growing 3.1% over the prior-year period during the week ending Nov 12th. Several factors seemingly helped drive sales over the last ...


Forecasters Predict Lower Growth and Higher Unemployment 2012-13
Posted: November 14, 2011 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The outlook for growth and unemployment in the U.S. economy looks a little weaker now than it did three months ago, according to 45 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters predict lower real GDP growth and higher unemployment rates in 2012 and 2013 than they did in August. Our panelists expect real GDP ...


DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer increased 0.1%
Posted: November 10, 2011 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

For the week ending October 29, 2011, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer rose slightly by +0.1 percent following a decline of -0.2 percent in the prior week. Inflation-adjusted chain store sales increased by +0.7 percent, largely offsetting their decrease in the prior week and lifting the barometer index in the latest week. Overall ...


Goods and Services Deficit Decreased in September 2011
Posted: November 10, 2011 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The Nation’s international trade deficit in goods and services decreased to $43.1 billion in September from $44.9 billion (revised) in August, as exports increased more than imports.

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that total September exports of $180.4 billion and imports of $223.5 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $43.1 billion, down from $44.9 ...


U.S. Import Price Index rose 0.6% in October
Posted: November 10, 2011 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

U.S. import prices declined 0.6 percent in October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, after recording no change in September. Decreasing prices for both nonfuel and fuel imports contributed to the October drop. Export prices fell 2.1 percent in October, the largest monthly decline since a 2.2 percent decrease in ...


Weekly initial unemployment claims decrease 10,000 to 390,000
Posted: November 10, 2011 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending November 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 390,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 400,000. The 4-week moving average was 400,000, a decrease of 5,250 from the previous week's revised average ...


Wholesale Inventories down 0.1% in September
Posted: November 9, 2011 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that September 2011 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $403.1 billion, up 0.5 percent (+/-0.9) from the revised August level and were up 15.0 percent ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: November 9, 2011 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 10.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 4, 2011.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 10.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 9.9 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased ...



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