Research >> Economics

Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 202103


Pending Home Sales Index dropped 10.6% in February
Posted: March 31, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Pending home sales dipped for a second straight month in February, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Each of the four major U.S. regions witnessed month-over-month declines in February, while results were mixed in the four regions year-over-year.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings, dropped 10.6% to 110.3 in February. Year-over-year, contract signings fell 0.5%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. ...


Chicago Purchasing Managers Index rose 6.8 points to 66.3 in March
Posted: March 31, 2021 at 09:45 AM (Wednesday)

The Chicago Business Barometer TM, produced with MNI, rose to 66.3 in March, the highest level since July 2018. Through Q1 the index gained 4.4 points to 63.2, the strongest reading since Q3 2018.

Among the main five indicators, Production saw the largest gain, while Order Backlogs saw the biggest drop. ...


Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index suggests slower growth in February
Posted: March 31, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The Midwest Economy Index (MEI), which approximates quarterly growth at a monthly frequency, fell to +0.35 in February from +0.65 in January. Contributions to the February MEI from three of the four broad sectors of nonfarm business activity and four of the five Seventh Federal Reserve District states decreased from January. The relative MEI ...


ADP National Employment Report Increased by 517,000 jobs in March
Posted: March 31, 2021 at 08:15 AM (Wednesday)

Private sector employment increased by 517,000 jobs from February to March according to the March ADP® National Employment Report.

“We saw marked improvement in March’s labor market data, reporting the strongest gain since September 2020,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “Job growth in the service sector significantly outpaced its recent monthly average, led with notable increase by the ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: March 31, 2021 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 2.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 26, 2021.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 3 ...


Consumer Confidence surged in March 2021 to 109.7
Posted: March 30, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® surged in March to its highest reading in a year, after a modest increase in February. The Index now stands at 109.7 (1985=100), up from 90.4 in February. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—climbed from 89.6 to 110.0. ...


S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices increase 0.8% in January 2021
Posted: March 30, 2021 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for January 2021 show that home prices continue to increase across the U.S.

Please note that transaction records for December 2020 for Wayne County, MI, are now available. Due to delays at the local recording office caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, S&P DJI and CoreLogic were previously unable to generate a valid December 2020 update for the Detroit ...


Paychex-IHS Small Business Jobs Index increased to 94.25 in March
Posted: March 30, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The latest Paychex | IHS Markit Business Employment Watch shows notable increases in jobs growth in March across all four U.S. regions and nearly all states and metros analyzed in the report. The Small Business Jobs Index increased to 94.25 in March. While the index remains 4.03 percent below its March 2020 level, last month’s 0.30 ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity Expands at a markedly faster pace in March
Posted: March 29, 2021 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity expanded at a markedly faster pace in March, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, surged 28 points to 48.0, its highest reading in the survey’s ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence rose in March to 84.9
Posted: March 26, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer sentiment rose in March, reaching its highest level in a year—mainly due to the third disbursement of relief checks and better-than-anticipated vaccination progress, according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

As prospects for obtaining vaccination have grown, so too has people’s impatience with isolation, as those concerns were voiced by nearly one-third of consumers in March, the highest level in the past year, said U-M economist Richard Curtin, director of the surveys. ...


Personal Income decreased 7.1%, Spending decreased 1.0% in February 2021
Posted: March 26, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Personal income income decreased $1,516.6 billion (7.1 percent) in February according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 3 and 5). Disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $1,532.3 billion (8.0 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $149.0 billion ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity grew solidly in March
Posted: March 25, 2021 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity grew solidly compared to a month ago and a year ago with positive expectations for future activity. Prices paid for raw materials remained very high, and the index continued to hover near historically high levels. Finished goods prices also increased further from a month ago and a year ago. Moving ...


4Q2020 GDP final estimate increased 4.3%
Posted: March 25, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2020 (table 1), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 33.4 percent.

The "third" estimate of GDP released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 4.1 percent. The upward revision primarily reflected an upward revision to ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease 97,000 to 684,000
Posted: March 25, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending March 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 684,000, a decrease of 97,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 11,000 from 770,000 to 781,000. The 4-week moving average was 736,000, a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week's revised average. ...


February 2021 New Orders for Durable Goods Decreased 1.1%, Ex-Trans down 0.9%
Posted: March 24, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in February decreased $2.9 billion or 1.1 percent to $254.0 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down following nine consecutive monthly increases, followed a 3.5 percent January increase. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.9 percent. Excluding ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: March 24, 2021 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 2.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 19, 2021.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 5 ...


New Home Sales in February 2021 at annual rate of 775,000
Posted: March 23, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

New Home Sales
Sales of new single-family houses in February 2021 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 775,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 18.2 percent (±13.9 percent) below the revised January rate of 948,000, but is 8.2 ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity Index rose to 17 in March 2021
Posted: March 23, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity expanded in March, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite index rose from 14 in February to 17 in March, driven by a sharp increase in the shipments index while the other two components — new orders and employment — held steady. Businesses ...


4Q2020 Current Account Deficit Increased
Posted: March 23, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The U.S. current account deficit, which reflects the combined balances on trade in goods and services and income flows between U.S. residents and residents of other countries, widened by $7.6 billion, or 4.2 percent, to $188.5 billion in the fourth quarter of 2020, according to statistics released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. ...


Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Survey indicated expansion in activity in March 2021
Posted: March 23, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The seasonal factors that our researchers at the Philadelphia Fed use to calculate the survey's diffusion indexes were affected by atypical patterns because of the onset of the pandemic one year ago. For several variables, revised seasonal factors shifted by much more than is normal. We may revise our seasonal adjustment approach after ...


Existing-Home Sales decreased 6.6% in February
Posted: March 22, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

Existing-home sales declined in February, following two prior months of gains, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Month-over-month, only one major region saw an increase in February, but all four U.S. regions recorded year-over-year gains.

Total existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, decreased 6.6% from January to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 6.22 million in February. Sales in total climbed year-over-year, up 9.1% from a year ...


Chicago Fed National Activity Index suggests economic growth declined in February
Posted: March 22, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Led by declines in indicators related to production and personal consumption and housing, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to –1.09 in February from +0.75 in January. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made negative contributions in February, but all four categories decreased ...


U.S. Leading Economic Index increased 0.2% in February
Posted: March 18, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI)for the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in February to 110.5 (2016 = 100), following a 0.5 percent increase in January and a 0.4 percent increase in December.

“The U.S. LEI continued rising in February, suggesting economic growth should continue well into this year,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “Indeed, the acceleration of the vaccination campaign and a new round of large ...


Philadelphia Fed Outlook Activity continued to grow in March 2021
Posted: March 18, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Manufacturing conditions in the region strengthened further this month, according to firms responding to the March Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The indicators for general activity and new orders rose sharply, and the shipments and employment indexes also increased. Price pressures also rose, according to the surveyed firms. All of ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase 45,000 to 770,000
Posted: March 18, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending March 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 770,000, an increase of 45,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 13,000 from 712,000 to 725,000. The 4-week moving average was 746,250, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week's revised average. ...


FOMC target funds rate maintained at 0.00% - 0.25%
Posted: March 17, 2021 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.

The COVID-19 pandemic is causing tremendous human and economic hardship across the United States and around the world. Following a moderation in the pace of the recovery, indicators of economic activity and employment have turned up recently, although the sectors most ...


February Housing Starts Decreased 10.3%, Permits down 10.8%
Posted: March 17, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Building Permits
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,682,000. This is 10.8 percent (±1.0 percent) below the revised January rate of 1,886,000, but is 17.0 percent (±1.4 percent) above the February 2020 rate of 1,438,000. Single-family authorizations in ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: March 17, 2021 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 2.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 12, 2021.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 4 ...


Business Inventories up 0.3% in January 2021
Posted: March 16, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for January, adjusted for seasonal and trading day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,568.5 billion, up 4.7 percent (±0.3 percent) from December 2020 and was up 7.1 percent (±0.4 percent) from ...


NAHB Builder Confidence fell two points to 82 in March
Posted: March 16, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Despite high buyer traffic and strong demand, builder sentiment fell in March as rising lumber and other material prices pushed builder confidence lower. The latest National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today shows that builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes ...


Industrial Production decreased 2.2%
Capacity Utilization decreased to 73.8%

Posted: March 16, 2021 at 09:15 AM (Tuesday)

In February, total industrial production decreased 2.2 percent. Manufacturing output and mining production fell 3.1 percent and 5.4 percent, respectively; the output of utilities increased 7.4 percent.

The severe winter weather in the south central region of the country in mid-February accounted for the bulk of the declines in output for the month. Most notably, some petroleum refineries, petrochemical facilities, and plastic resin plants suffered damage from the deep ...


U.S. Import Price Index increased 1.3% in February 2021
Posted: March 16, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

U.S. import prices advanced 1.3 percent in February following a 1.4-percent increase in January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Higher fuel and nonfuel prices contributed to the advances in each of the past 2 months. Prices for U.S. exports also rose in February, increasing 1.6 percent, after advancing 2.5 percent the ...


U.S. Retail Sales for February 2021 Decreased 3.0%, Ex-Auto down 2.7 %
Posted: March 16, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for February 2021, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $561.7 billion, a decrease of 3.0 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and 6.3 percent (±0.7 percent) above February 2020. Total sales for the December ...


Treasury International Capital Data for January 2021
Posted: March 15, 2021 at 04:00 PM (Monday)

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for January 2021. The sum total in January of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a net TIC inflow of $106.3 billion. Of this, net foreign private inflows were $45.0 billion, and ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions grew at a solid clip in March 2021
Posted: March 15, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Business activity grew at a solid clip in New York State, according to firms responding to the March 2021 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index climbed five points to 17.4, its highest level since last summer. New orders increased modestly, and shipments were up substantially. Delivery times continued ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Preliminary March Results rose to 83
Posted: March 12, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer sentiment rose in early March to its highest level in a year due to the growing number of vaccinations as well as the widely anticipated passage of Biden's relief measures. The gains were widespread across all socioeconomic subgroups and all regions, although the largest monthly gains were concentrated among households in the bottom ...


Producer Price Index rose 0.5% in February, ex Fd & Engy up 0.2%
Posted: March 12, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.5 percent in February, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This rise followed advances of 1.3 percent in January and 0.3 percent in December. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index moved up 2.8 percent for the 12 months ended ...


Job Openings increased to 6.9 million in January
Posted: March 11, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The number of job openings changed little at 6.9 million on the last business day of January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires were little changed at 5.3 million while total separations decreased to 5.3 million. Within separations, the quits rate and layoffs and discharges rate changed little at 2.3 percent and ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease 42,000 to 712,000
Posted: March 11, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending March 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 712,000, a decrease of 42,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 9,000 from 745,000 to 754,000. The 4-week moving average was 759,000, a decrease of 34,000 from the previous week's revised average. The ...


Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine Index rose in February to 106.8
Posted: March 10, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

The Conference Board®-Burning Glass® Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Index rose in February and now stands at 106.8 (July 2018=100), up from 104.4 in January. The Index rose 0.5 percent from December to January and is down 2.4 percent from a year ago.

The Help Wanted OnLine® Index is produced in collaboration with Burning Glass Technologies, the global pioneer in real-time labor market data and analysis. This recent collaboration enhances the Help Wanted OnLine® program by providing additional insights into important ...


Consumer Price Index increased 0.4% in February, Ex Fd & Engy up 0.1%
Posted: March 10, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent in February on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.3 percent in January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The gasoline index continued to ...


Real Average Hourly Earnings decreased 0.2% in February 2021
Posted: March 10, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

All employees
Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.2 percent from January to February, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from an increase of 0.2 percent in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.4 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: March 10, 2021 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 1.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 5, 2021.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 5 ...


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index Improves Slightly to 95.0 in February
Posted: March 9, 2021 at 07:00 AM (Tuesday)

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose to 95.8 in February, a slight bump from January but still below the 47-year average reading of 98. The NFIB Uncertainty Index decreased five points to 75.

“Small business owners worked hard in February to overcome unexpected weather conditions along with the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Capital spending has been strong, but not on Main Street. The economic recovery remains uneven for ...


Wholesale Inventories up 1.3% in January 2021
Posted: March 8, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

January 2021 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading day differences but not for price changes, were $531.7 billion, up 4.9 percent (±0.7 percent) from the revised December level and were up 5.9 percent (±1.1 percent) from the revised January 2020 ...


Employment Trends Index increased in February to 101.01
Posted: March 8, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased in February, after an increase in January. The index now stands at 101.01, up from 99.69 (an upward revision) in January. The index is currently down only 7.8 percent from a year ago, which was the last ...


Consumer Credit Decreased at an annual rate of 0.40% in January
Posted: March 5, 2021 at 03:00 PM (Friday)

In January, consumer credit decreased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.4 percent. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 12.2 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 3.2 percent.

...


February Employment increased by 379,000
Unemployment Rate declined to 6.2%

Posted: March 5, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 379,000 in February, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 6.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The labor market continued to reflect the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. In February, most of the job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, with ...


Goods and Services Deficit Increased in January 2021
Posted: March 5, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The nation's international trade deficit in goods and services increased to $68.2 billion in January from $67.0 billion in December (revised), as imports increased more than exports. The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $68.2 billion in January, up $1.2 billion ...


New orders for manufactured goods increased 2.6% in January 2021
Posted: March 4, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Summary
New orders for manufactured goods in January, up nine consecutive months, increased $13.1 billion or 2.6 percent to $509.4 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 1.6 percent December increase. Shipments, also up nine consecutive months, increased $9.6 billion or 1.9 percent to $513.3 billion. This followed a ...



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