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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 202110


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged in October to 71.7
Posted: October 29, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer sentiment has remained virtually unchanged in the past three months, at levels comparable to the pandemic low point in April 2020, according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

The positive impact of higher income expectations and the receding coronavirus has been offset by higher rates of inflation and falling confidence in government economic policies, said U-M economist Richard Curtin, director of the surveys. ...


Chicago Purchasing Managers Index rose to 68.4 in October
Posted: October 29, 2021 at 09:45 AM (Friday)

The Chicago Business BarometerTM, produced with MNI, rose to 68.4 in October, picking up after two consecutive months of decline. Among the main five indicators, four were higher, led by Order backlogs and Employment. Only Production fell across the month.

After the sharp September fall, Order Backlogs recovered more than half the loss, picking up 13.5 points index points. ...


Personal Income Decreased 1.0%, Spending Increased 0.6% in September 2021
Posted: October 29, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Personal income decreased $216.2 billion (1.0 percent) in September according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 3 and 5). Disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $236.9 billion (1.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $93.4 billion ...


Employment Cost Index up 1.3% in 3Q2021
Posted: October 29, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 1.3 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in September 2021, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries increased 1.5 percent and benefit costs increased 0.9 percent from June ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity edged higher in October 2021
Posted: October 28, 2021 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing growth edged higher, and expectations for future activity remained at solid levels . The monthly index of prices paid for raw materials posted a new survey record high in October, and 99% of firms continued to report higher input prices compared to a year ago. Finished goods price indexes also increased from a ...


Pending Home Sales Index decreased 2.3% in September
Posted: October 28, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Pending home sales dipped in September, retreating slightly following a previous month of growth, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Each of the four major U.S. regions saw contract activity decline month-over-month and year-over-year, with the Northeast weathering the largest ...


3Q2021 GDP advance estimate increased 2.0%
Posted: October 28, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent in the third quarter of 2021 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 6.7 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see "Source Data for the Advance Estimate" on page 3). The "second" estimate for the third quarter, based on more complete data, will be released ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease 10,000 to 281,000
Posted: October 28, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending October 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 281,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since March 14, 2020 when it was 256,000. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 290,000 to 291,000. The 4-week moving ...


September 2021 New Orders for Durable Goods decreased 0.4%, Ex-Trans up 0.4%
Posted: October 27, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in September decreased $1.0 billion or 0.4 percent to $261.3 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down following four consecutive monthly increases, followed a 1.3 percent August increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.4 percent. Excluding ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: October 27, 2021 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 0.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 22, 2021.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 0.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 0.2 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 2 ...


New Home Sales in September 2021 at annual rate of 800,000
Posted: October 26, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

New Home Sales
Sales of new single‐family houses in September 2021 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 800,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 14.0 percent (±17.9 percent)* above the revised August rate of 702,000, but is 17.6 ...


Consumer Confidence increased in October 2021 to 113.8
Posted: October 26, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased in October, following declines in the previous three months. The Index now stands at 113.8 (1985=100), up from 109.8 in September. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—rose to 147.4 from 144.3 last month. The ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity Index increased to 12 in October 2021
Posted: October 26, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity strengthened in October, according to the most recent survey from the Richmond Fed. The composite index rose from −3 in September to 12 in October, as all three component indexes — shipments, new orders, and employment — increased. Backlogs of orders and lead times indexes continued to grow, as the vendor ...


S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices increase 1.6% in August 2021
Posted: October 26, 2021 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for August 2021 show that home prices continue to increase across the U.S.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 19.8% annual gain in August, remaining the same as the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 18.6%, down from ...


Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Survey suggest continued growth in October 2021
Posted: October 26, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Nonmanufacturing activity in the region continued to expand this month, according to the firms responding to the Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's current indicators for general activity and sales/revenues increased, while the index for new orders remained steady. The survey's indexes for prices paid and prices received ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity continued to increase at a slightly slower pace in October 2021
Posted: October 25, 2021 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity continued to increase in October, albeit at a slightly slower pace, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell six points to 18.3. The reading was still well above average and indicative of solid ...


Chicago Fed National Activity Index Suggests Slower Economic Growth in September
Posted: October 25, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to –0.13 in September from +0.05 in August. One of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made a negative contribution in September, and one category deteriorated from August. The index’s three-month ...


U.S. Leading Economic Index increased 0.2% in September 2021
Posted: October 21, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI)for the U.S. increased by 0.2 percent in September to 117.5 (2016 = 100), following a 0.8 percent increase in August and a 0.9 percent increase in July.

“The U.S. LEI rose again in September, though at a slower rate, suggesting the economy remains on a more moderate growth trajectory compared to the first half of the year,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “The Delta ...


Existing-Home Sales rose 7.0% in September 2021
Posted: October 21, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Existing-home sales rebounded in September after seeing sales wane the previous month, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Each of the four major U.S. regions witnessed increases on a month-over-month basis. From a year-over-year timeframe, one region held steady while the three others each reported a decline ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease 6,000 to 290,000
Posted: October 21, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending October 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 290,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since March 14, 2020 when it was 256,000. The previous week's level was revised up by 3,000 from 293,000 to 296,000. The 4-week moving ...


Philadelphia Fed Outlook Activity expanded at a slower pace in October 2021
Posted: October 21, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Manufacturing activity in the region continued to expand this month, according to the firms responding to the October Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's indicator for general activity declined, the new orders index improved, and the shipments index held steady. Both price indexes remained elevated. The survey's future ...


Beige Book: Economic Activity expanded at a modest or moderate pace
Posted: October 20, 2021 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Economic activity grew at a modest to moderate rate, according to the majority of Federal Reserve Districts. Several Districts noted, however, that the pace of growth slowed this period, constrained by supply chain disruptions, labor shortages, and uncertainty around the Delta variant of COVID-19. A majority of Districts indicated positive ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: October 20, 2021 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 6.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 15, 2021.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 6.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 7 ...


September Housing Starts Decreased 1.6%, Permits down 7.7%
Posted: October 19, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Building Permits
Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,589,000. This is 7.7 percent (±0.9 percent) below the revised August rate of 1,721,000, but is virtually unchanged from (±1.1 percent)* the September 2020 rate of 1,589,000. Single‐family authorizations ...


Treasury International Capital Data for August 2021
Posted: October 18, 2021 at 04:00 PM (Monday)

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for August 2021. The sum total in August of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a net TIC inflow of $91.0 billion. Of this, net foreign private inflows were $125.0 billion, and net ...


NAHB Builder Confidence rose 4 points to 80 in October 2021
Posted: October 18, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

Strong consumer demand helped push builder confidence higher in October despite growing affordability challenges stemming from rising material prices and shortages. Builder sentiment in the market for newly built single-family homes moved four points higher to 80 in October, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells ...


Industrial Production fell 1.3%
Capacity Utilization fell to 75.2%

Posted: October 18, 2021 at 09:15 AM (Monday)

Industrial production fell 1.3 percent in September after moving down 0.1 percent in August; output was previously reported to have risen 0.4 percent in August. In September, manufacturing output decreased 0.7 percent: The production of motor vehicles and parts fell 7.2 percent, as shortages of semiconductors continued to hobble operations, ...


Business Inventories down 0.1% in August 2021
Posted: October 15, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for August, adjusted for seasonal and trading day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,652.4 billion, down 0.1 percent (±0.2 percent)* from July 2021, but was up 15.3 percent (±0.6 percent) from ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Preliminary October Results dipped to 71.4
Posted: October 15, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer sentiment has remained for the past three months at the lows first recorded in response to last year's shutdown of the economy. The Delta variant, supply chain shortages, and reduced labor force participation rates will continue to dim the pace of consumer spending into 2022. There is another, less tangible factor that has contributed ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions grew at a slower pace in October 2021
Posted: October 15, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Business activity grew at a solid pace in New York State, according to firms responding to the October 2021 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell fifteen points to 19.8, pointing to a slower pace of growth than last month. New orders and shipments increased, though by less than they did last ...


U.S. Import Price Index increased 0.4% in September 2021
Posted: October 15, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Prices for U.S. imports increased 0.4 percent in September, after decreasing 0.3 percent the previous month, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The advance in September was driven by higher fuel prices. U.S. export prices ticked up 0.1 percent in September following advances of 0.4 percent in August and 1.1 percent in ...


U.S. Retail Sales for September 2021 increase 0.7%, Ex-Auto up 0.8%
Posted: October 15, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for September 2021, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $625.4 billion, an increase of 0.7 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and 13.9 percent (±0.7 percent) above September 2020. Total sales for the July ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease 36,000 to 293,000
Posted: October 14, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending October 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 293,000, a decrease of 36,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since March 14, 2020 when it was 256,000. The previous week's level was revised up by 3,000 from 326,000 to 329,000. The 4-week moving ...


Producer Price Index rose 0.5% in September, ex Fd & Engy up 0.6%
Posted: October 14, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.5 percent in September, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices moved up 0.7 percent in August and 1.0 percent in July. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index rose 8.6 percent for the 12 months ended in September, the largest ...


Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine Index rose in September 2021 to 164.5
Posted: October 13, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

The Conference Board®−Burning Glass® Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Index rose in September and now stands at 164.5 (July 2018=100), up from 159.7 in August. The 3.0 percent increase between August and September follows a 4.0 percent decrease between July and August. Overall, the Index is up 63.6 percent from a ...


Consumer Price Index increased 0.4% in September, Ex Fd & Engy up 0.2%
Posted: October 13, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent in September on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.3 percent in August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 5.4 percent before ...


Real Average Hourly Earnings increased 0.2% in September 2021
Posted: October 13, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

All employees
Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.2 percent from August to September, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from an increase of 0.6 percent in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.4 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: October 13, 2021 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 0.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 8, 2021.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 0.4 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 1 ...


Job Openings declined to 10.4 million in August
Posted: October 12, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The number of job openings declined to 10.4 million on the last business day of August following a series high in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires decreased to 6.3 million while total separations were little changed at 6.0 million. Within separations, the quits rate increased to a series high of 2.9 percent while ...


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index decreased to 99.1 in September
Posted: October 12, 2021 at 07:00 AM (Tuesday)

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index decreased one point in September to 99.1. Three of the 10 Index components improved, five declined, and two were unchanged.

“Small business owners are doing their best to meet the needs of customers, but are unable to hire workers or receive the needed supplies and inventories,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “The outlook for economic policy is not encouraging to owners, as lawmakers ...


Employment Trends Index fell marginally in September 2021 to 110.35
Posted: October 11, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) fell marginally in September, the first decrease in seven months. The index now stands at 110.35, down from 110.68 (an upward revision) in June.

“The Employment Trends Index has flattened since July, suggesting it may be a few months before the pace of job growth regains the momentum of earlier this year,” said Gad Levanon, Head of The Conference Board Labor Markets Institute. “The chief culprit behind lagging job ...


Wholesale Inventories up 0.6% in August 2021
Posted: October 8, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

August 2021 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading day differences but not for price changes, were $595.5 billion, down 1.1 percent (±0.5 percent) from the revised July level, but were up 20.6 percent (±1.8 percent) from the revised August 2020 ...


September Employment rose by 194,000
Unemployment Rate declined to 4.8%

Posted: October 8, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 194,000 in September, and the unemployment rate fell by 0.4 percentage point to 4.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, in professional and business services, in retail trade, and in transportation and warehousing. Employment ...


Consumer Credit Increased at an annual rate of 4.0% in August
Posted: October 7, 2021 at 03:00 PM (Thursday)

In August, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 3.6 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 4.1 percent.

...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease 38,000 to 326,000
Posted: October 7, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending October 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 326,000, a decrease of 38,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 362,000 to 364,000. The 4-week moving average was 344,000, an increase of 3,500 from the previous week's revised average. ...


Challenger Layoffs announced 17,895 Job Cuts in September 2021
Posted: October 7, 2021 at 07:30 AM (Thursday)

Job cuts announced by U.S.-based employers rose 14% in September to 17,895 from the 24-year low of 15,723 cuts announced in August, according to a report released Thursday from global outplacement and business and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.
September's total is 85% lower than the same month last year, when ...


ADP National Employment Report Increased by 568,000 jobs in September
Posted: October 6, 2021 at 08:15 AM (Wednesday)

Private sector employment increased by 568,000 jobs from August to September according to the September ADP® National Employment ReportTM.

“The labor market recovery continues to make progress despite a marked slowdown from the 748,000 job pace in the second quarter,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “Leisure and hospitality remains one of the biggest beneficiaries to the recovery, yet hiring is ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: October 6, 2021 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 6.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 1, 2021.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 6.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 7 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 10 ...


ISM Non-Manufacturing Index inched up to 61.9% in September
Posted: October 5, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Economic activity in the services sector grew in September for the 16th month in a row, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Services Business Survey Committee: “The Services PMI® registered 61.9 percent, 0.2 percentage point higher than the reading of 61.7 percent in ...


Paychex-IHS Small Business Jobs Index rose to 99.95 in September 2021
Posted: October 5, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Employment picture continues to improve for small business, but rates of growth have slowed. National job growth continued to tick upward in September, according to aggregated payroll data of approximately 350,000 clients provided by Paychex. The data released in the latest report of the Paychex | IHS Markit Small Business Employment Watch ...



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