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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 201904



Consumer Confidence improved in April to 129.2
Posted: April 30, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® improved in April, after decreasing in March. The Index now stands at 129.2 (1985=100), up from 124.2 in March. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions – increased, from 163.0 to 168.3. The Expectations Index – based on ...


Pending Home Sales Index Increased 3.8% in March
Posted: April 30, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Pending home sales rose in March, reversing course from a month prior, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Three of the four major regions saw growth last month, as the Northeast reported a minor slip in contract activity.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, increased 3.8% to 105.8 in March, up from 101.9 in February. Year-over-year contract signings declined 1.2%, making this the 15th straight month of annual decreases. ...


Chicago Purchasing Managers Index fell 6.1 points to 52.6 in April
Posted: April 30, 2019 at 09:45 AM (Tuesday)

The MNI Chicago Business Barometer fell 6.1 points to 52.6 in April, down from 58.7 in March to the lowest level since January 2017.

The weakness in the Barometer observed in Q1 continued into Q2, with the April fall led by four of the five Barometer components. ...


S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices increased 0.2% in February
Posted: April 30, 2019 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for February 2019 shows that the rate of home price increases across the U.S. has continued to slow.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 4.0% annual gain in February, down from 4.2% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 2.6%, down from 3.1% in ...


Employment Cost Index up 0.7% in 1Q2019
Posted: April 30, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.7 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in March 2019, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries (which make up about 70 percent of compensation costs) increased 0.7 percent and benefit costs (which make up the remaining 30 percent ...


Paychex-IHS Small Business Jobs Index declined to 98.77 in April
Posted: April 30, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The Paychex | IHS Markit Small Business Employment Watch Paychex | IHS Markit Small Business Employment Watch for April shows job and wage growth kept pace with recent months. In the first four months of 2019 job growth has remained relatively consistent, slowing just 0.03 percent per month to 98.77 in April. Annualized hourly earnings growth ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity Picks Up Slightly in April
Posted: April 29, 2019 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

exas factory activity continued to expand in April, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, ticked up two points to 12.4, indicating output growth accelerated slightly ...


Personal Income increased 0.1%, Spending increased 0.9%
Posted: April 29, 2019 at 08:43 AM (Monday)

Personal income increased $11.4 billion (0.1 percent) in March according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $0.6 billion, (less than 0.1 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $123.5 billion ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence moved sideways in April to 97.2
Posted: April 26, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The Index of Consumer Sentiment has moved sideways, recording only small monthly variations since Trump first entered office. The Sentiment Index has averaged 97.2 in the past 28 months, identical to the April 2019 reading. Moreover, the Sentiment Index has remained between 94.0 and 100.0 for 22 of the past 28 months. The last time ...


1Q2019 GDP advance estimate increased 3.2%
Posted: April 26, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.2 percent in the first quarter of 2019, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2018, real GDP increased 2.2 percent.

The Bureau’s first-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see “Source Data for the Advance Estimate” on page 2). The "second" estimate for the first quarter, based on more ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity grew more modestly in April
Posted: April 25, 2019 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity grew more modestly in April, and expectations for future activity eased slightly but remained mostly solid (Chart 1). Price indexes showed little change, with some slight upticks in month-over-month selling prices and future raw ...


March New Orders for Durable Goods increased 2.7%, Ex-Trans up 0.4%
Posted: April 25, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in March increased $6.8 billion or 2.7 percent to $258.5 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up four of the last five months, followed a 1.1 percent February decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.4 percent. Excluding defense, new orders ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 37,000 to 230,000
Posted: April 25, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending April 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 230,000, an increase of 37,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 192,000 to 193,000. The 4-week moving average was 206,000, an increase of 4,500 from the previous week's revised average. ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: April 24, 2019 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 7.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 19, 2019.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 7.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 11 ...


New Home Sales in March at annual rate of 692,000
Posted: April 23, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

New Home Sales
Sales of new single‐family houses in March 2019 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 692,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 4.5 percent (±17.6 percent)* above the revised February rate of 662,000 and is 3.0 percent ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity Index fell from 10 to 3 in April
Posted: April 23, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity moderated in April, according to the latest survey from the Richmond Fed. The composite index fell from 10 in March to 3 in April, weighed down by slightly negative readings in the indexes for both shipments and new orders but buoyed by a positive reading for the third component index, employment. Firms ...


Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Survey Suggest Activity Continued to Expand in April
Posted: April 23, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Responses to the April Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest nonmanufacturing activity continued to expand in the region. The indexes for general activity at the firm level and new orders were in line with their readings from last month, and the sales/revenues index declined. The full-time employment index retreated from last ...


Existing-Home Sales fell 4.9% in March
Posted: April 22, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

Existing-home sales retreated in March, following February’s surge of sales, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Each of the four major U.S. regions saw a drop-off in sales, with the Midwest enduring the largest decline last month.

Total existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, fell 4.9% from February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.21 million in March. Sales as a whole are down 5.4% from a year ago (5.51 million in ...


Chicago Fed National Activity points to a pickup in economic growth in March
Posted: April 22, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Led by improvements in employment-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to –0.15 in March from –0.31 in February. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from February, but three of the four categories made negative contributions to the index in March. The ...


March Housing Starts decreased 0.3%, Permits down 1.7%
Posted: April 19, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Building Permits
Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,269,000. This is 1.7 percent (±1.4 percent) below the revised February rate of 1,291,000 and is 7.8 percent (±1.9 percent) below the March 2018 rate of 1,377,000. Single‐family authorizations in March were at a ...


Business Inventories up 0.3% in February
Posted: April 18, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for February, adjusted for seasonal and trading day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,446.8 billion, up 0.1 percent (±0.1 percent)* from January 2019 and was up 2.4 percent (±0.3 percent) from ...


U.S. Leading Economic Index increased 0.4% in March
Posted: April 18, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.4 percent in March to 111.9 (2016 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in February, and no change in January.

“The US LEI picked up in March with labor markets, consumers’ outlook, and financial conditions making the largest contributions,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. ”Despite the relatively large gain in March, the trend in the US ...


U.S. Retail Sales for March Increase 1.6%, Ex-Auto up 0.9%
Posted: April 18, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March 2019, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $514.1 billion, an increase of 1.6 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and 3.6 percent (±0.7 percent) above March 2018. Total sales for the January ...


Philadelphia Fed Outlook Reported Activity continued to grow in April
Posted: April 18, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Regional manufacturing activity continued to grow in April, according to results from this month’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. Although the survey’s indicators for general activity and shipments fell from their readings last month, the indicators for new orders, employment, and the workweek improved. The survey’s indexes for ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 5,000 to 192,000
Posted: April 18, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending April 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 192,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since September 6, 1969 when it was 182,000. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 196,000 to 197,000. The 4-week moving ...


Beige Book: Economic Activity expanded at a slight-to-moderate pace in March and early April
Posted: April 17, 2019 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Overall Economic Activity
Economic activity expanded at a slight-to-moderate pace in March and early April. While most Districts reported that growth continued at a similar pace as the previous report, a few Districts reported some strengthening. There was little change in the outlook among contacts in reporting Districts, with those ...


Wholesale Inventories up 0.2% in February
Posted: April 17, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

February 2019 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading day differences but not for price changes, were $495.9 billion, up 0.3 percent (±0.4 percent)* from the revised January level and were up 2.1 percent (±0.9 percent) from the February 2018 level. ...


Goods and Services Deficit Decreased in February 2019
Posted: April 17, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The nation's international trade deficit in goods and services decreased to $49.4 billion in February from $51.1 billion in January (revised), as exports increased more than imports. The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $49.4 billion in February, down $1.8 ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: April 17, 2019 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 3.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 12, 2019.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 3.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 8 ...


Builder Confidence rose 1 point to 63 in April
Posted: April 16, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes rose one point to 63 in April, according to the latest NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. Sentiment levels have held in the low 60s for the past three months.

“Builders report solid demand for new single-family homes but they are also grappling with affordability concerns stemming from a chronic shortage of construction workers and buildable lots,” said NAHB Chairman Greg Ugalde. ...


Industrial Production edged down 0.1%
Capacity Utilization decreased to 78.8%

Posted: April 16, 2019 at 09:15 AM (Tuesday)

Industrial production edged down 0.1 percent in March after edging up 0.1 percent in February; for the first quarter as a whole, the index slipped 0.3 percent at an annual rate. Manufacturing production was unchanged in March after declining in both January and February. The index for utilities rose 0.2 percent, while mining output moved down ...


Treasury International Capital Data for February 2019
Posted: April 15, 2019 at 04:00 PM (Monday)

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for February 2019. The sum total in February of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a net TIC outflow of $21.6 billion. Of this, net foreign private outflows were $11.5 billion, and ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions grew modestly in April
Posted: April 15, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Business activity grew modestly in New York State, according to firms responding to the April 2019 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index rose six points to 10.1, indicating that growth picked up somewhat but remained fairly subdued. New orders rose slightly, and shipments continued to grow ...


U.S. Import Price Index advanced 0.6% in March
Posted: April 12, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

U.S. import prices increased 0.6 percent in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, following a 1.0-percent rise in February. Both the March and February advances were driven by higher fuel prices. Prices for U.S. exports rose 0.7 percent for the second consecutive month in March. Both agricultural and nonagricultural ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 8,000 to 196,000
Posted: April 11, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending April 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 196,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since October 4, 1969 when it was 193,000. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 202,000 to 204,000. The 4-week moving ...


Producer Price Index rose 0.6% in March, ex Fd & Engy unch%
Posted: April 11, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.6 percent in March, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices edged up 0.1 percent in February and decreased 0.1 percent in January. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index increased 2.2 percent for the 12 months ended in March, the ...


Consumer Price Index increased 0.4% in March, Ex Fd & Engy rose 0.1%
Posted: April 10, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent in March on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.2 percent in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.9 percent before ...


Real Average Hourly Earnings decreased 0.3% in March
Posted: April 10, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.3 percent from February to March, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from a 0.1-percent increase in average hourly earnings combined with a 0.4-percent increase in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: April 10, 2019 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 5.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 5, 2019.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 5.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 5 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 11 ...


Job Openings fell to 7.1 million in February
Posted: April 9, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The number of job openings fell to 7.1 million on the last business day of February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.6 million, respectively. Within separations, the quits rate was unchanged at 2.3 percent and the layoffs and discharges rate ...


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased 0.1 points to 101.8 in March
Posted: April 9, 2019 at 07:00 AM (Tuesday)

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased 0.1 points to 101.8 in March, a historically strong level and an indication that small businesses continue to power the economy after being briefly shaken by January’s government shutdown. Overall, the Index anticipates solid growth, keeping the economy at “full employment” with no signs of ...


New orders for manufactured goods decreased 0.5% in February
Posted: April 8, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

New orders for manufactured goods in February, down four of the last five months, decreased $2.6 billion or 0.5 percent to $497.5 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a virtually unchanged January decrease. Shipments, up following four consecutive monthly decreases, increased $2.0 billion or 0.4 percent to $505.5 ...


Employment Trends Index declined in March to 110.98
Posted: April 8, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) declined in March, following an increase in February. The index now stands at 110.98, down from 111.62 (an upward revision) in February. Despite the decrease this month, there has been a 3.1 percent gain in the ETI over the past ...


Consumer Credit Increased at an annual rate of 4.50%
Posted: April 5, 2019 at 03:00 PM (Friday)

In February, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4-1/2 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 3-1/4 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 5 percent.

...


March Employment increased by 196,000
Unemployment Rate was unchanged at 3.8%

Posted: April 5, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 196,000 in March, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in health care and in professional and technical services.

This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry. For more ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 10,000 to 202,000
Posted: April 4, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending March 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 202,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since December 6, 1969 when it was 202,000. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 211,000 to 212,000. The 4-week moving ...


Challenger Layoffs announced 60,587 cuts in March
Posted: April 4, 2019 at 07:30 AM (Thursday)

U.S.-based employers announced plans to cut 60,587 jobs from their payrolls in March, down 21% from the 76,835 cuts announced in February. Despite the decline, last month’s cuts in the Automotive and Energy sectors added to the highest quarterly total of the last 14 quarters, according to a report released Thursday from global outplacement ...


ISM Non-Manufacturing Index decreased to 56.1% in March
Posted: April 3, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in March for the 110th consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “The NMI® registered 56.1 percent, which is 3.6 percentage points lower than the February reading of ...


Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine Index decreased in March to 102.3
Posted: April 3, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

The Conference Board experimental Help Wanted OnLine (HWOL) Index declined in March. The Index now stands at 102.3 (July 2018=100), down from 104.0 in February.

“The HWOL index declined in March but remains at a level consistent with solid hiring activity,” said Gad Levanon, Chief Economist, North America, at The Conference Board. “Despite the one-month decline, it is too early to conclude that hiring activity is slowing. We still ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: April 3, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 18.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 29, 2019.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 18.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 18 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 39 ...



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