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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 202105


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence slipped in May to 82.9
Posted: May 28, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

A falloff in consumer confidence in May is due to surging inflation that consumers anticipate will persist in the year ahead, according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

Record proportions of consumers reported higher prices across a wide range of discretionary purchases, including homes, vehicles and household durables. The impact of higher prices on discretionary spending will be offset by the more than $2 trillion increase in savings in ...


Chicago Purchasing Managers Index jumped 3.1 points to 75.2 in May
Posted: May 28, 2021 at 09:45 AM (Friday)

The Chicago Business BarometerTM, produced with MNI, jumped to 75.2 in May, the highest level since November 1973. Demand provided a boost to business activity, but supply chain constraints remain.

Among the main five indicators, New Orders and Order Backlogs saw the largest gains, while Employment recorded the only decline. ...


Personal Income Decreased 13.1%, Spending Increased 0.5% in April 2021
Posted: May 28, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Personal income decreased $3.21 trillion (13.1 percent) in April according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 3 and 5). Disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $3.22 trillion (14.6 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $80.3 billion ...


Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index Points to Little Change in Midwest Growth Through April
Posted: May 28, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The Midwest Economy Index (MEI), which approximates quarterly growth at a monthly frequency, ticked down to +0.61 in April from +0.62 in March. Contributions to the April MEI from two of the four broad sectors of nonfarm business activity and two of the five Seventh Federal Reserve District states decreased from March. The relative MEI ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity continued to expand at a strong pace in May 2021
Posted: May 27, 2021 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity continued to expand at a strong pace, and expectations for future activity remained solid. The index of prices paid for raw materials compared to a month ago posted a new survey record high for the second straight month, and prices received for finished goods also surpassed historical levels. Price indexes ...


Pending Home Sales Index fell 4.4% in April
Posted: May 27, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Pending home sales took a step backward in April, according to the National Association of Realtors®. All four U.S. regions recorded year-over-year increases, but only the Midwest witnessed month-over-month gains in terms of pending home sales contract transactions.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings, fell 4.4% to 106.2 in April. Year-over-year, signings jumped 51.7% as last year's pandemic-related shutdowns slumped sales to an all-time low. An index of 100 is equal ...


1Q2021 GDP preliminary estimate increased 6.4%
Posted: May 27, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 6.4 percent in the first quarter of 2021 (table 1), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2020, real GDP increased 4.3 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was also 6.4 percent. Upward revisions to consumer spending and nonresidential fixed ...


April 2021 New Orders for Durable Goods Decreased 1.3%, Ex-Trans up 1.0%
Posted: May 27, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in April decreased $3.2 billion or 1.3 percent to $246.2 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down following eleven consecutive monthly increases, followed a 1.3 percent March increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.0 percent. Excluding defense, ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease 38,000 to 406,000
Posted: May 27, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending May 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 406,000, a decrease of 38,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 444,000. This is the lowest level for initial claims since March 14, 2020 when it was 256,000. The 4-week moving average was 458,750, a decrease of 46,000 from the previous ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: May 26, 2021 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 4.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 21, 2021.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 4.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 4 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 7 ...


New Home Sales in April 2021 at annual rate of 863,000
Posted: May 25, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

New Home Sales
Sales of new single‐family houses in April 2021 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 863,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 5.9 percent (±11.2 percent)* below the revised March rate of 917,000, but is 48.3 percent ...


Consumer Confidence held steady in May 2021 to 117.2
Posted: May 25, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® held steady in May, following a gain in April. The Index now stands at 117.2 (1985=100), down marginally from 117.5 in April. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—increased from 131.9 to 144.3. However, the Expectations ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity Index inched up to 18 in May 2021
Posted: May 25, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity strengthened in May, according to the most recent survey from the Richmond Fed. The composite index inched up from 17 in April to 18 in May, as all three component indexes — shipments, new orders, and employment — reflected growth. A majority of firms reported lengthening vendor lead times, as this ...


S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices increase 2.0% in March 2021
Posted: May 25, 2021 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for March 2021 show that home prices continue to increase across the U.S.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 13.2% annual gain in March, up from 12.0% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 12.8%, up from 11.7% in ...


Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Survey indicated continued expansion in activity in May 2021
Posted: May 25, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Responses to the May Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest continued expansion in nonmanufacturing activity in the region. The index for general activity at the firm level held mostly steady, and the index for new orders increased; however, the sales/revenues index edged down. Additionally, the survey's index for full-time ...


Chicago Fed National Activity Index Suggests Economic Growth Moderated in April
Posted: May 24, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) declined to +0.24 in April from +1.71 in March. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in April, but three categories deteriorated from March. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to +0.07 in April from +0.35 ...


Existing-Home Sales decreased 2.7% in April 2021
Posted: May 21, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Existing-home sales waned in April, marking three straight months of declines, according to the National Association of Realtors®. All but one of the four major U.S. regions witnessed month-over-month drops in home sales, but each registered double-digit year-over-year gains ...


U.S. Leading Economic Index increased 1.6% in April 2021
Posted: May 20, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased by 1.6 percent in April to 113.3 (2016 = 100), following a 1.3 percent increase in March and a 0.1 percent decline in February.

“With April’s large monthly gain to start the second quarter, the U.S. LEI has now recovered fully from its COVID-19 contraction—surpassing the index’s previous peak, reached at the very onset of the global pandemic in January 2020,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease 34,000 to 444,000
Posted: May 20, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending May 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 444,000, a decrease of 34,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since March 14, 2020 when it was 256,000. The previous week's level was revised up by 5,000 from 473,000 to 478,000. The 4-week moving average ...


Philadelphia Fed Outlook Activity continued to grow in May 2021
Posted: May 20, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Manufacturing activity in the region continued to grow, according to the firms responding to the May Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's current indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments declined from April's readings but remained elevated. Additionally, employment increases were less widespread this month, ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: May 19, 2021 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 1.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 14, 2021.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 1.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 1 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 4 ...


April Housing Starts Decreased 9.5%, Permits up 0.3%
Posted: May 18, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Building Permits
Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,760,000. This is 0.3 percent (±1.2 percent)* above the revised March rate of 1,755,000 and is 60.9 percent (±1.8 percent) above the April 2020 rate of 1,094,000. Single‐family authorizations in April were at a ...


Treasury International Capital Data for March 2021
Posted: May 17, 2021 at 04:00 PM (Monday)

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for March 2021. The sum total in March of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a net TIC inflow of $146.4 billion. Of this, net foreign private inflows were $140.0 billion, and net ...


NAHB Builder Confidence held stable at 83 in May 2021
Posted: May 17, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

Builder confidence held stable in May, despite growing concerns over the price and availability of most building materials, including lumber. The latest NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today shows that builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes is 83 in May, unchanged ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions grow at a solid clip in May 2021
Posted: May 17, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Business activity continued to grow at a solid clip in New York State, according to firms responding to the May 2021 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index was little changed at 24.3. New orders and shipments continued to expand strongly, and unfilled orders increased. Delivery times ...


Business Inventories up 0.3% in March 2021
Posted: May 14, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for March, adjusted for seasonal and trading day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,638.2 billion, up 5.7 percent (±0.2 percent) from February 2021 and was up 18.5 percent (±0.4 percent) from ...


Philadelphia Fed Survey of Forecasters see Faster Pace of Economic Rebound with Stronger Labor Markets
Posted: May 14, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The U.S. economy looks stronger now than it did three months ago, according to 36 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The panel predicts real GDP will grow at an annual rate of 7.9 percent this quarter, up 2.9 percentage points from the prediction in the last survey. Over the next three quarters, the panelists ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Preliminary May Results dipped to 82.8
Posted: May 14, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer confidence in early May tumbled due to higher inflation--the highest expected year-ahead inflation rate as well as the highest long term inflation rate in the past decade. Rising inflation also meant that real income expectations were the weakest in five years. The average of net price mentions for buying conditions for homes, ...


Industrial Production increased 0.7%
Capacity Utilization increased to 74.9%

Posted: May 14, 2021 at 09:15 AM (Friday)

Total industrial production increased 0.7 percent in April. The indexes for mining and utilities increased 0.7 percent and 2.6 percent, respectively; the index for manufacturing rose 0.4 percent despite a drop in motor vehicle assemblies that principally resulted from shortages of semiconductors. An important contributor to the gain in ...


U.S. Retail Sales for April 2021 virtually unchanged%, Ex-Auto down 0.8%
Posted: May 14, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for April 2021, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $619.9 billion, virtually unchanged (± 0.5 percent)* from the previous month, and 51.2 percent (± 0.7 percent) above April 2020. Total sales for the February 2021 ...


U.S. Import Price Index increased 0.7% in April 2021
Posted: May 14, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

U.S. import prices advanced 0.7 percent in April following a 1.4-percent increase in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Higher prices for fuel and nonfuel imports contributed to both the April and March advances. Prices for U.S. exports increased 0.8 percent in April, after rising 2.4 percent the ...


Producer Price Index rose 0.6% in April, ex Fd & Engy up 0.7%
Posted: May 13, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.6 percent in April, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices rose 1.0 percent in March and 0.5 percent in February. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index moved up 6.2 percent for the 12 months ended in April, the largest advance ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease 34,000 to 473,000
Posted: May 13, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending May 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 473,000, a decrease of 34,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since March 14, 2020 when it was 256,000. The previous week's level was revised up by 9,000 from 498,000 to 507,000. The 4-week moving average ...


Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine Index declined in April 2021 to 112.2
Posted: May 12, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

he Conference Board®-Burning Glass® Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Index declined in April and now stands at 112.2 (July 2018=100), down from 113.5 in March. The Index rose 1.3 percent from February to March and is up 59.3 percent from a year ago.

The Help Wanted OnLine® Index is produced in collaboration with Burning Glass Technologies, the global pioneer in real-time labor market data and analysis. This recent collaboration enhances the Help Wanted OnLine® program by providing additional insights into important ...


Consumer Price Index increased 0.8% in April, Ex Fd & Engy up 0.9%
Posted: May 12, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.8 percent in April on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.6 percent in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 4.2 percent before seasonal adjustment. This is the largest 12-month increase since ...


Real Average Hourly Earnings were unchanged in April 2021
Posted: May 12, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

All employees
Real average hourly earnings for all employees were unchanged from March to April, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from an increase of 0.7 percent in average hourly earnings offset by an increase of 0.8 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: May 12, 2021 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 2.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 7, 2021.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 2.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 2 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 3 ...


Job Openings reached a series high of 8.1 million in March
Posted: May 11, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The number of job openings reached a series high of 8.1 million on the last business day of March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires were little changed at 6.0 million. Total separations were little changed at 5.3 million. Within separations, the quits rate was unchanged at 2.4 percent while the layoffs and discharges ...


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index Rose to 99.8 in April
Posted: May 11, 2021 at 07:00 AM (Tuesday)

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose to 99.8 in April, an increase of 1.6 points from March. The Optimism Index has increased 4.8 points over the past three months since January but a record 44% of owners reported job openings they could not be filled.

“Small business owners are seeing a growth in sales but are stunted by not having enough workers,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Finding qualified employees remains the biggest challenge for small businesses and is slowing economic growth. Owners are raising ...


Employment Trends Index increased in April 2021 to 105.44
Posted: May 10, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) significantly increased in April, after an increase in March. The index now stands at 105.44, up from 102.65 (an upward revision) in March. The index is currently up 45.7 percent from a year ago.

“Despite the disappointing April jobs report, the Employment Trends Index significantly increased in April, suggesting strong employment growth in the coming months,” said Gad Levanon, Head of The Conference Board Labor Markets Institute. “Most of the Index’s components are ...


Consumer Credit Increased at an annual rate of 5.10% in March
Posted: May 7, 2021 at 03:00 PM (Friday)

Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.1 percent during the first quarter. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.4 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 5.9 percent. In March, consumer credit increased at an annual rate of ...


Wholesale Inventories up 1.4% in March 2021
Posted: May 7, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

March 2021 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading day differences but not for price changes, were $567.9 billion, up 4.6 percent (±0.7 percent) from the revised February level and were up 19.0 percent (±1.1 percent) from the revised March 2020 level. ...


April Employment increased by 266,000
Unemployment Rate little changed at 6.1%

Posted: May 7, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 266,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 6.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains in leisure and hospitality, other services, and local government education were partially offset by employment declines in temporary help services and ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease 92,000 to 498,000
Posted: May 6, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending May 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 498,000, a decrease of 92,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since March 14, 2020 when it was 256,000. The previous week's level was revised up by 37,000 from 553,000 to 590,000. The 4-week moving average ...


1Q2021 Productivity Growth increased 5.4%
Posted: May 6, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 5.4 percent in the first quarter of 2021, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output increased 8.4 percent and hours worked increased 2.9 percent. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates.) From the first quarter of 2020 to the ...


Challenger Layoffs announced 22,913 Job Cuts in April 2021
Posted: May 6, 2021 at 07:30 AM (Thursday)

Job cuts announced by U.S.-based employers fell 25% in April to 22,913 from the 30,603 announced in March. Last month's total is down 96.6% from last April, when employers announced 671,129 cuts, the highest monthly total on record, according to a report released Thursday from global outplacement and business and executive coaching ...


ISM Non-Manufacturing Index dipped to 62.7% in April
Posted: May 5, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Economic activity in the services sector grew in April for the 11th month in a row, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM® Report On Business.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Services Business Survey Committee: “The Services PMI® registered 62.7 percent, which is 1 percentage point lower than last month’s all-time high ...


ADP National Employment Report Increased by 742,000 jobs in April
Posted: May 5, 2021 at 08:15 AM (Wednesday)

Private sector employment increased by 742,000 jobs from March to April according to the April ADP® National Employment Report. The labor market continues an upward trend of acceleration and growth, posting the strongest reading since September 2020,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “Service providers have the most to gain as ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: May 5, 2021 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 0.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 30, 2021.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 0.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 0.1 ...


New orders for manufactured goods increased 0.8% in March 2021
Posted: May 4, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Summary
New orders for manufactured goods in March, up ten of the last eleven months, increased $5.8 billion or 1.1 percent to $512.9 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 0.5 percent February decrease. Shipments, also up ten of the last eleven months, increased $10.8 billion or 2.1 percent to $513.6 billion. ...



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