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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 201604



Chicago Purchasing Managers Index decreased 3.2 points to 50.4 in April
Posted: April 29, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The Chicago Business Barometer decreased 3.2 points to 50.4 in April from 53.6 in March led by a fall in New Orders and a sharp drop in Order Backlogs. It marks a slow start to the second quarter, with most measures down from levels seen a year earlier.

Three of the five Barometer components decreased between March and April, with only Production and Supplier Deliveries posting increases on the month. April’s decline left the three-month trend running at a softer pace of 50.5, having ended Q1 at the highest level in over a ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence continued to decline in April to 89.0
Posted: April 29, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer sentiment continued its slow decline in April due to weakening expectations for future economic growth, although their views of their current finances remained positive. The top concerns of consumers involve whether the anticipated slowdown in economic growth will lead to a slower income and job gains, and the rise in uncertainty ...


Personal Income increased 0.4%, Spending increased 0.1%
Posted: April 29, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Personal income increased $57.4 billion, or 0.4 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $50.4 billion, or 0.4 percent, in March, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $12.8 billion, or 0.1 percent. In February, personal income increased $12.0 billion, or 0.1 percent, ...


Employment Cost Index up 0.6% in 1Q2016
Posted: April 29, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.6 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in March 2016, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries (which make up about 70 percent of compensation costs) increased 0.7 percent, and benefits (which make up the remaining 30 percent of ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity continued to decline modestly in April
Posted: April 28, 2016 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity continued to decline modestly, while producers’ expectations for future activity improved considerably. Most price indexes moved slightly higher in April, but remained at low levels.

The month-over-month composite index was -4 in April, up from -6 in March and -12 in February. The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. The slight improvement in the index came ...


MUFG U.S. Business Barometer dropped by 0.3%
Posted: April 28, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

For the week ending April 16 2016, the MUFG U.S. Business Barometer dropped by 0.3 percent to 97.8. This week’s barometer was driven by poor performances in most consumption and production indexes. MBA’s purchase index and railroad freight car loadings, for instance, declined by 0.5 and 0.9 percent, respectively. As to the production side, ...


1Q2016 GDP advance estimate increased 0.5%
Posted: April 28, 2016 at 08:51 AM (Thursday)

Real gross domestic product -- the value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production, adjusted for price changes -- increased at an annual rate of 0.5 percent in the first quarter of 2016, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 9,000 to 257,000
Posted: April 28, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending April 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 257,000, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 247,000 to 248,000. The 4-week moving average was 256,000, a decrease of 4,750 from the previous week's revised average. This is ...


FOMC target funds rate reaffirmed at 1/4 to 1/2%
Posted: April 27, 2016 at 01:53 PM (Wednesday)

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that labor market conditions have improved further even as growth in economic activity appears to have slowed. Growth in household spending has moderated, although households' real income has risen at a solid rate and consumer sentiment remains high. Since ...


Pending Home Sales Index rose 1.4% in March
Posted: April 27, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Pending home sales increased slightly in March for the second consecutive month and reached their highest level in almost a year, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Only the West region saw a decline in contract activity last month.

The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, climbed 1.4 percent to 110.5 in March from an downwardly revised 109.0 in February and is now 1.4 percent above March 2015 (109.0). After last month’s slight gain, the index has increased ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: April 27, 2016 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 4.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 22, 2016.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 4.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 5 ...


Consumer Confidence declined moderately in April to 94.2
Posted: April 26, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had increased in March, declined moderately in April. The Index now stands at 94.2 (1985=100), down from 96.1 in March. The Present Situation Index increased from 114.9 to 116.4, while the Expectations Index decreased from 83.6 to 79.3 ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity Index slipped 8 points to a reading of 14
Posted: April 26, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity continued to expand in April, according to the most recent survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Shipments and the volume of new orders remained solid. New hiring increased modestly, while the average workweek lengthened and average wage increases moderated. Prices of raw materials and finished ...


S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices gained 0.2% in February
Posted: April 26, 2016 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for February 2016 shows that home prices continued their rise across the country over the last 12 months.

Year-over-Year
The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, recorded a 5.3% annual gain in February, unchanged from the previous month. The 10-City Composite increased 4.6% in the year to February, compared to 5.0% ...


March New Orders for Durable Goods increased 0.8%, Ex-Trans down 1.2%
Posted: April 26, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in March increased $1.8 billion or 0.8 percent to $230.7 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up two of the last three months, followed a 3.1 percent February decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.2 percent. Excluding defense, new orders ...


Philadelphia NonManufacturing Activity Continues Modest Growth
Posted: April 26, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Firms responding to April's Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey reported that growth in regional nonmanufacturing activity remains positive with no perceptible change in the diffusion index for current activity at the firm level. The diffusion index for current activity in the region was also unchanged. The individual indicators were ...


Texas Manufacturing Activity Expands Again
Posted: April 25, 2016 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity increased for a second month in a row in April, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose from 3.3 to 5.8, suggesting a slight pickup in ...


New Home Sales in March at annual rate of 511,000
Posted: April 25, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

Sales of new single-family houses in March 2016 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 511,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 1.5 percent (±15.0%)* below the revised February rate of 519,000, but is 5.4 percent (±16.0%)* above the ...


U.S. Leading Economic Index increased 0.2% in March
Posted: April 21, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in March to 123.4 (2010 = 100), following a 0.1 percent decline in February, and a 0.2 percent decline in January.

“With the March gain, the U.S. LEI’s six-month growth rate improved slightly but still points to slow, although not slowing, growth in the coming quarters,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “Rebounding stock ...


MUFG U.S. Business Barometer climbed by 0.6%
Posted: April 21, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

For the week ending April 9 2016, the MUFG U.S. Business Barometer climbed by 0.6 percent to 98.1. This week’s gain was mostly driven by consumption indexes. Chain store sales, for instance, bounced back by 1.5 percent, following a loss of 0.5 percent in the previous week. Likewise, MBA’s purchase index and railroad freight car loadings rose ...


Chicago Fed National Activity edged down in March
Posted: April 21, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to –0.18 in March from –0.11 in February. March’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was somewhat below its historical trend. The economic growth reflected in this level of the CFNAI-MA3 suggests subdued inflationary pressure from economic activity over ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 6,000 to 247,000
Posted: April 21, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending April 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 247,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 253,000. This is the lowest level for initial claims since November 24, 1973 when it was 233,000. The 4-week moving average was 260,500, a decrease of 4,500 from the previous ...


Philadelphia Fed Outlook Reported No Improvement in Activity
Posted: April 21, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Firms responding to the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey reported no improvement in business conditions this month. The indicator for general activity, which rose sharply in March, fell to a slightly negative reading in April. Other broad indicators suggested a similar relapse in growth that was reported last month. The indicators for ...


Existing-Home Sales jumped 5.1% in March
Posted: April 20, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Bolstered by big gains in the Northeast and Midwest, existing-home sales bounced back in March and remained slightly up from a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, jumped 5.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.33 million in March from a downwardly revised 5.07 million in February. Sales rose ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: April 20, 2016 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 1.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 15, 2016.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 1.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 2 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 3 ...


March Housing Starts down 8.8%, Permits down 7.7%
Posted: April 19, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

BUILDING PERMITS
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,086,000. This is 7.7 percent (±1.2%) below the revised February rate of 1,177,000, but is 4.6 percent (±0.9%) above the March 2015 estimate of 1,038,000. Single-family authorizations in March were at a rate ...


Builder Confidence unchanged at a level of 58 in April
Posted: April 18, 2016 at 09:30 AM (Monday)

Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes remained unchanged in April at a level of 58 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI).

“Builder confidence has held firm at 58 for three consecutive months, showing that the single-family housing sector continues to recover at a slow but consistent pace,” said NAHB Chairman Ed Brady, a home builder and developer from Bloomington, Ill. “As we enter the spring ...


Treasury International Capital Data for February 2016
Posted: April 15, 2016 at 04:00 PM (Friday)

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for February 2016. The sum total in February of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a monthly net TIC inflow of $33.5 billion. Of this, net foreign private inflows were $62.3 billion, ...


Industrial Production decreased 0.6%
Capacity Utilization decreased to 74.8%

Posted: April 15, 2016 at 09:16 AM (Friday)

Industrial production decreased 0.6 percent in March for a second month in a row. For the first quarter as a whole, industrial production fell at an annual rate of 2.2 percent. A substantial portion of the overall decrease in March resulted from declines in the indexes for mining and utilities, which fell 2.9 percent and 1.2 percent, ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions Improve in April
Posted: April 15, 2016 at 08:00 AM (Friday)

The April 2016 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that business activity expanded for New York manufacturers. The headline general business conditions climbed nine points to 9.6, its highest level in more than a year. The new orders and shipments indexes registered an increase in both orders and shipments, and inventories were ...


MUFG U.S. Business Barometer picked up by 0.1%
Posted: April 14, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

For the week ending April 2 2016, the MUFG U.S. Business Barometer picked up by 0.1 percent to 97.5. This week’s barometer is characterized by a mixed performance in the indexes. Auto and truck production, for instance, rose by 0.5 and 1.4 percent, respectively. Similarly, electric output increased by 0.6 percent, after falling by 4.0 percent ...


Real Average Hourly Earnings increased 0.2% in March
Posted: April 14, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.2 percent from February to March, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from a 0.3-percent increase in average hourly earnings being partially offset by a 0.1-percent increase in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban ...


Consumer Price Index increased 0.1% in March, Ex Fd & Engy up 0.1%
Posted: April 14, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 0.9 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The food index declined in March, while the indexes for energy and for all items less food and energy rose, leading to the slight seasonally adjusted increase in the all items index. The food index fell 0.2 percent after rising in February, as five of the six major grocery ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 13,000 to 253,000
Posted: April 14, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending April 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 253,000, a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 1,000 from 267,000 to 266,000. The 4-week moving average was 265,000, a decrease of 1,500 from the previous week's revised average. ...


Beige Book: Economic Activity activity continued to expand
Posted: April 13, 2016 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts suggest that national economic activity continued to expand in late February and March, though the pace of growth varied across Districts. Most Districts said that economic growth was in the modest to moderate range and that contacts expected growth would remain in that range going ...


Business Inventories up 0.1% in February
Posted: April 13, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that the combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for February, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,284.4 billion, down 0.4 percent (±0.2%) from January 2016 and was down 1.4 percent (±0.4%) from ...


Producer Price Index fell 0.1% in March, ex Fd & Engy unch%
Posted: April 13, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The Producer Price Index for final demand fell 0.1 percent in March, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices decreased 0.2 percent in February and advanced 0.1 percent in January. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index moved down 0.1 percent for the 12 months ended ...


U.S. Retail Sales for March decrease 0.3%, Ex-Auto up 0.2%
Posted: April 13, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $446.9 billion, a decrease of 0.3 percent (±0.5%)* from the previous month, and 1.7 percent (±0.7%) above March 2015. Total ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: April 13, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 10 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 8, 2016.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 10 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 10 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 11 ...


U.S. Import Price Index increased 0.2% in March
Posted: April 12, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

U.S. import prices increased 0.2 percent in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The advance followed a 0.4-percent drop the previous month and was driven by an upturn in fuel prices which more than offset lower nonfuel prices. Prices for U.S. exports recorded no change in March, after falling 0.5 percent ...


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 0.3 points to 92.6
Posted: April 12, 2016 at 07:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Index of Small Business Optimism fell 0.3 points from February, falling to 92.6. Statistically, no change. Four of the 10 Index components posted a gain, six posted small declines, the biggest gain was in Expected Business Conditions, a 4 point improvement to a still very negative number. For a broader perspective, the Index has ...


Wholesale Inventories down 0.5% in February
Posted: April 8, 2016 at 03:00 PM (Friday)

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that February 2016 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $427.6 billion, down 0.2 percent (+/-0.5%)* from the revised January level and were down 3.1 ...


Consumer Credit Increased at an annual rate of 5.75%
Posted: April 7, 2016 at 03:00 PM (Thursday)

In February, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5-3/4 percent. Revolving credit increased at a 3-3/4 percent annual rate, while nonrevolving credit increased at a 6-1/2 percent annual rate.

...


BTMU U.S. Business Barometer remained flat%
Posted: April 7, 2016 at 10:39 AM (Thursday)

For the week ending March 26 2016, the BTMU U.S. Business Barometer remained flat at 97.4, as gains in some indexes offset losses in others. On one side, chain store sales climbed by 3.0 percent after falling by 2.1 percent in the previous week. Along similar lines, MBA’s purchase index and coal production rose by 2.1 and 1.3 ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 9,000 to 267,000
Posted: April 7, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending April 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 267,000, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 276,000. The 4-week moving average was 266,750, an increase of 3,500 from the previous week's unrevised average of 263,250. There were no special factors impacting this week's ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: April 6, 2016 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 2.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 1, 2016.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 2.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 3 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 7 ...


ISM Non-Manufacturing Index faster growth at 54.5% in March
Posted: April 5, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in March for the 74th consecutive month, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The NMI® registered 54.5 percent in March, 1.1 percentage points higher than the February reading of 53.4 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a slightly faster rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased to 59.8 ...


Goods and Services Deficit Increased in February 2016
Posted: April 5, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The Nation's international trade deficit in goods and services increased to $47.1 billion in February from $45.9 billion in January (revised), as imports increased more than exports.

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $47.1 billion in February, up $1.2 billion from $45.9 billion in January, revised. February exports were $178.1 ...


Job Openings dipped to 5.4 million in February
Posted: April 5, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The number of job openings was little changed at 5.4 million on the last business day of February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires increased to 5.4 million while separations were little changed at 5.1 million. Within separations, the quits rate was 2.1 percent, and the layoffs and discharges rate was 1.2 percent. ...


New orders for manufactured goods decreased 1.7% in February
Posted: April 4, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

New orders for manufactured goods in February, down three of the last four months, decreased $8.0 billion or 1.7 percent to $454.0 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 1.2 percent January increase.

Shipments, down ten of the last eleven months, decreased $3.4 billion or 0.7 percent to $462.8 billion. This followed a 0.2 percent January decrease. Unfilled orders, down two of the last three months, decreased $4.1 billion or 0.3 percent to $1,184.0 billion. This followed ...



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