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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 201810



Help Wanted OnLine Labor Demand decreased 267,300 to 4,482,900 in October
Posted: October 31, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Online advertised vacancies decreased 267,300 to 4,482,900 in October, according to The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Data Series,released today. The September Supply/Demand rate stands at 1.26 unemployed workers for each advertised vacancy, with a total of 1.2 million more unemployed workers than the number of advertised ...


Chicago Purchasing Managers Index declined 2.0 points to 58.4 in October
Posted: October 31, 2018 at 09:45 AM (Wednesday)

The MNI Chicago Business Barometer declined to 58.4 in October, the lowest reading since April, down 2.0 points from 60.4 in September.

Business activity continued to expand at a healthy rate this month, despite the pace of activity decelerating for the third month in a row. A decline in order book growth and unfinished orders more than offset a rise in output, delivery times and employment, sending the ...


Employment Cost Index up 0.8% in 3Q2018
Posted: October 31, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.8 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in September 2018, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries (which make up about 70 percent of compensation costs) increased 0.9 percent and benefit costs (which make up the remaining 30 percent ...


ADP National Employment Report increased by 227,000 jobs in October
Posted: October 31, 2018 at 08:15 AM (Wednesday)

Private sector employment increased by 227,000 jobs from September to October according to the October ADP National Employment Report®.

“Despite a significant shortage in skilled talent, the labor market continues to grow,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute.”We saw significant gains across all industries with trade and leisure and hospitality leading the way. We ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: October 31, 2018 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 2.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 26, 2018.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 4 ...


Consumer Confidence Increased again in October to 137.9
Posted: October 30, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased again in October, following a modest improvement in September. The Index now stands at 137.9 (1985=100), up from 135.3 in September. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions – improved from 169.4 to 172.8. The ...


S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices gained 0.2% in August
Posted: October 30, 2018 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for August 2018 shows that home prices continued their rise across the country over the last 12 months.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.8% annual gain in August, down from 6.0% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 5.1%, down from 5.5% in ...


Paychex-IHS Small Business Jobs Index down to 99.12 in October
Posted: October 30, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The Paychex | IHS Markit Small Business Employment Watch data for October again reflects the tight labor market with a dip in job growth and uptick in wages. Down 0.06 percent from last month at 99.12, the Small Business Jobs Index has slowed 1.28 percent over the past two years, consistent with a declining rate of unemployment in the ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity Continues to Expand, but Pace Slows
Posted: October 29, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity continued to expand in October, albeit at a slower pace, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, was positive but declined another six points to 17.6, indicating output growth continued ...


Personal Income increased 0.2%, Spending increased 0.4%
Posted: October 29, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Personal income increased $35.7 billion (0.2 percent) in September according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $29.1 billion (0.2 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $53.0 billion ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence dipped in October to 98.5
Posted: October 26, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer sentiment remained at very favorable levels, according to the latest University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

The Sentiment Index has been higher thus far in 2018 (98.5) than in any prior year since 2000, which was the last year of the longest expansion since the mid-1800s, said U-M economist Richard Curtin, director of the surveys. ...


3Q2018 GDP advance estimate increased 3.5%
Posted: October 26, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.5 percent in the third quarter of 2018, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 4.2 percent.

The Bureau emphasized that the third-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see “Source Data for the Advance Estimate” on page 2). The "second" estimate for the third quarter, ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity expanded at a slower pace in October
Posted: October 25, 2018 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity expanded at a slower pace in October compared with the rapid expansion earlier in the year. Expectations for future activity growth also eased slightly, but remained positive. Price indexes mostly declined from high levels in ...


Pending Home Sales Index Increased 0.5% in September
Posted: October 25, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Pending home sales rose slightly in September and saw substantial increases in both the West and Midwest, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, increased 0.5 percent to 104.6 in September from 104.1 in August. However, year-over-year, contract signings dropped 1.0 percent, making this the ninth straight month of annual decreases. ...


September New Orders for Durable Goods increased 0.8%, Ex-Trans up 0.1%
Posted: October 25, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in September increased $2.0 billion or 0.8 percent to $262.1 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up three of the last four months, followed a 4.6 percent August increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.1 percent. Excluding defense, new ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 5,000 to 215,000
Posted: October 25, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending October 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 215,000, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 210,000. The 4-week moving average was 211,750, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised average ...


Beige Book: Economic Activity expanded at a modest to moderate pace
Posted: October 24, 2018 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Economic activity expanded across the United States, with the majority of Federal Reserve Districts reporting modest to moderate growth. New York and St. Louis indicated slight growth, overall, while Dallas reported robust growth driven by strong manufacturing, retail, and nonfinancial services activity. On balance, manufacturers reported ...


New Home Sales in September at annual rate of 553,000
Posted: October 24, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

New Home Sales
Sales of new single‐family houses in September 2018 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 553,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 5.5 percent (±12.1 percent)* below the revised August rate of 585,000 and is 13.2 ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: October 24, 2018 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications rose 4.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 19, 2018. The previous week's results did not include an adjustment for the Columbus ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity Index fell from 29 to 15 in October
Posted: October 23, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity expanded moderately in October, according to the results from the most recent survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite index fell from 29 in September to 15 in August, as indexes for shipments and new orders dropped, while the third component, employment, rose. However, survey ...


Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Activity Suggest Continued Expansion in October
Posted: October 23, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Responses to the October Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest continued expansion of nonmanufacturing activity in the region. The indicators for firm-level general activity, new orders, and full-time employment remained positive but fell, while the sales/revenues index remained relatively stable. The respondents continued to ...


Chicago Fed National Activity Points to a moderation in economic growth in September
Posted: October 22, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to +0.17 in September from +0.27 in August. Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from August, but three of the four categories made positive contributions to the index in September. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved down ...


Existing-Home Sales fell 3.4% in September
Posted: October 19, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Existing-home sales declined in September after a month of stagnation in August, according to the National Association of Realtors®. All four major regions saw no gain in sales activity last month.

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, fell 3.4 percent from August to a seasonally adjusted rate of 5.15 million in September. Sales are now down 4.1 percent from a year ago (5.37 ...


U.S. Leading Economic Index increased 0.5% in September
Posted: October 18, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI)for the U.S. increased 0.5 percent in September to 111.8 (2016 = 100), following a 0.4 percent increase in August, and a 0.7 percent increase in July.

“The US LEI improved further in September, suggesting the US business cycle remains on a strong growth trajectory heading into 2019. However, the LEI’s growth has slowed somewhat in recent months, suggesting the economy may be facing capacity constraints and increasingly ...


Philadelphia Fed Outlook Reported Activity continued to grow in October
Posted: October 18, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Regional manufacturing activity continued to grow in October, according to results from this month’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s broad indicators for general activity, new orders, shipments, and employment remained positive and near their readings in September. The firms reported continued growth in employment and ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 5,000 to 210,000
Posted: October 18, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending October 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 210,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 214,000 to 215,000. The 4-week moving average was 211,750, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's revised average. ...


September Housing Starts decreased 5.3%, Permits down 0.6%
Posted: October 17, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Building Permits
Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,241,000. This is 0.6 percent (±1.2 percent)* below the revised August rate of 1,249,000 and is 1.0 percent (±1.2 percent)* below the September 2017 rate of 1,254,000. Single‐family authorizations in ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: October 17, 2018 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 7.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 12, 2018. This week's results didn't include adjustment for the Columbus ...


Treasury International Capital Data for August 2018
Posted: October 16, 2018 at 04:00 PM (Tuesday)

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for August 2018. The sum total in August of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a net TIC inflow of $108.2 billion. Of this, net foreign private inflows were $104.6 billion, and ...


Job Openings reached a series high of 7.1 million in August
Posted: October 16, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The number of job openings reached a series high of 7.1 million on the last business day of August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and separations were little changed at 5.8 million and 5.7 million, respectively. Within separations, the quits rate was unchanged at 2.4 percent and the layoffs ...


Builder Confidence rose one point to 68 in October
Posted: October 16, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes rose one point to 68 in October on the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). Builder confidence levels have held in the high 60s since June.

“Builders are motivated by solid housing demand, fueled by a growing economy and a generational low for unemployment,” said NAHB Chairman Randy Noel. “Builders are also relieved that lumber prices have declined for three straight months from elevated levels earlier this ...


Industrial Production increased 0.3%
Capacity Utilization unchanged at 78.1%

Posted: October 16, 2018 at 09:15 AM (Tuesday)

Industrial production increased 0.3 percent in September, about the same rate of change as in the previous two months. Output growth in September was held down slightly by Hurricane Florence, with an estimated effect of less than 0.1 percentage point. For the third quarter as a whole, total industrial production advanced at an annual rate of ...


Business Inventories up 0.5% in August
Posted: October 15, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for August, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,461.9 billion, up 0.5 percent (±0.1 percent) from July 2018 and was up 7.8 percent (±1.2 percent) from ...


U.S. Retail Sales for September Increase 0.1%, Ex-Auto up 0.0%
Posted: October 15, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for September 2018, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $509.0 billion, an increase of 0.1 percent (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, and 4.7 percent (±0.5 percent) above September 2017. Total sales for the July ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions continued to grow strongly in October
Posted: October 15, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Business activity continued to grow strongly in New York State, according to firms responding to the October 2018 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index rose two points to 21.1, pointing to a slightly faster pace of growth than in September. New orders and shipments both picked up noticeably. ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Preliminary October Results at 99.0
Posted: October 12, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer sentiment slipped in early October, although it remained at quite favorable levels and just above the average reading during 2018 (98.5). The small decline was due to less favorable assessments by consumers of their personal finances. Unfortunately, the downward revisions in the rate of growth in household incomes were accompanied ...


U.S. Import Price Index increased 0.5% in September
Posted: October 12, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Prices for U.S. imports increased 0.5 percent in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, after declining 0.4 percent in August and 0.1 percent in July. The September advance was led by higher fuel prices. U.S. export prices recorded no change in September following declines of 0.2 percent and 0.5 percent the previous ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 7,000 to 214,000
Posted: October 11, 2018 at 08:30 PM (Thursday)

In the week ending October 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 214,000, an increase of 7,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 207,000. The 4-week moving average was 209,500, an increase of 2,500 from the previous week's unrevised average ...


Consumer Price Index increased 0.1% in September, Ex Fd & Engy rose 0.1%
Posted: October 11, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent in
September on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.2 percent in August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.3 percent before ...


Real Average Hourly Earnings increased 0.3% in September
Posted: October 11, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.3 percent from August to September, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from a 0.3-percent increase in average hourly earnings combined with a 0.1-percent increase in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban ...


Wholesale Inventories up 1.0% in August
Posted: October 10, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

August 2018 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $511.1 billion, up 0.8 percent (±0.4 percent) from the revised July level and were up 9.2 percent (±3.5 percent) from the August 2017 level. The June ...


Producer Price Index increased 0.2% in September, ex Fd & Engy up 0.4%
Posted: October 10, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.2 percent in September, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices declined 0.1 percent in August and were unchanged in July. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index advanced 2.6 percent for the 12 months ended ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: October 10, 2018 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 1.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 5, 2018.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 3 ...


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dipped 0.9 points to 107.9 in September
Posted: October 9, 2018 at 07:00 AM (Tuesday)

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index continued its historic 23-month positive trend, with a reading of 107.9 in September, the third highest reading in the survey’s 45-year history. In the small business half of the economy, 2018 has produced 45-year record high measures of job openings, hiring plans, actual job creation, compensation ...


Employment Trends Index declined in September to 110.77
Posted: October 8, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) declined in September, following an increase in August. The index now stands at 110.77, down from 111.18 (an upward revision) in August. The change represents a 6.7 percent gain in the ETI compared to a year ago.

“Despite this month’s decline – the result of just two components – the index remains on a solid upward trend, and has been growing rapidly in recent months,” said Gad Levanon, Chief Economist, North America, at The Conference Board. “The US economy is very strong now. ...


Consumer Credit Increased at an annual rate of 6.25%
Posted: October 5, 2018 at 03:00 PM (Friday)

In August, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6-1/4 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 5-1/2 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 6-1/2 percent.

...


September Employment increased by 134,000
Unemployment Rate declined to 3.7%

Posted: October 5, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The unemployment rate declined to 3.7 percent in September, and total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 134,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, in health care, and in transportation ...


Goods and Services Deficit Increased in August 2018
Posted: October 5, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The nation's international trade deficit in goods and services increased to $53.2 billion in August from $50.0 billion in July (revised), as exports decreased and imports increased. The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $53.2 billion in August, up $3.2 billion ...


New orders for manufactured goods increased 4.4% in August
Posted: October 4, 2018 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Summary
New orders for manufactured goods in August, up three of the last four months, increased $11.5 billion or 2.3 percent to $510.5 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 0.5 percent July decrease. Shipments, up fifteen of the last sixteen months, increased $2.3 billion or 0.5 percent to $504.0 billion. This followed ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 7,000 to 207,000
Posted: October 4, 2018 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending September 29, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 207,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 214,000 to 215,000. The 4-week moving average was 207,000, an increase of 500 from the previous week's revised average. ...



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