Research >> Economics

Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 201912

Consumer Confidence decreased in December to 126.5
Posted: December 31, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® decreased marginally in December, following a slight increase in November. The Index now stands at 126.5 (1985=100), down from 126.8 (an upward revision) in November. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions – increased from 166.6 ...

S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Increased 0.1% in October
Posted: December 31, 2019 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for October 2019 show that home prices continue to increase at a modest rate across the U.S.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 3.3% annual gain in October, up from 3.2% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 1.7%, up from 1.5% in the ...

Paychex-IHS Small Business Jobs Index up to 98.16 in December
Posted: December 31, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Weekly Earnings Growth Ends the Year at All-Time High. The Paychex | IHS Markit Small Business Employment Watch shows accelerating wage growth amid tight labor market. The competitive job market continues to drive wage growth higher, according to the latest Paychex | IHS Markit Small Business Employment Watch. Steady growth in hourly earnings ...

Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity Expands Modestly in December
Posted: December 30, 2019 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Growth in Texas factory activity resumed in December, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rebounded to 3.6 after dipping into negative territory ...

Pending Home Sales Index rose 1.2% in November
Posted: December 30, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

Pending home sales increased in November, rebounding from the prior month’s decline, according to the National Association of Realtors®. The West region reported the highest growth last month, while the other three major U.S. regions saw only marginal variances in month-over-month contract activity. Pending home sales were up nationally and up ...

Chicago Purchasing Managers Index rose 2.6 points to 48.9 in December
Posted: December 30, 2019 at 09:45 AM (Monday)

The Chicago Business BarometerTM, produced with MNI, rose 2.6 points in December, hitting a four-month high of 48.9.

Business sentiment dropped by 1.2 points to 46.2 in Q4, marking the lowest quarterly reading since Q2 2009. The index was below the 50-mark for the second successive quarter. ...

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 13,000 to 222,000
Posted: December 26, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending December 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 222,000, a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 234,000 to 235,000. The 4-week moving average was 228,000, an increase of 2,250 from the previous week's revised average. ...

Richmond Fed's Current Activity Index fell from -1 to −5 in December
Posted: December 24, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity slowed in December, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite index fell from −1 in November to −5 in December, weighed down by decreases in the already negative indexes for shipments and new orders, while the third component — employment — increased ...

Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Survey Suggest Activity moderated in December
Posted: December 24, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Responses to the December Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest a moderation of nonmanufacturing activity in the region. The indexes for general activity at the firm level, new orders, and sales/revenues all fell but remained positive. The index for full-time employment remained stable. The firms continued to report overall increases ...

New Home Sales in November 2019 at annual rate of 719,000
Posted: December 23, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

New Home Sales
Sales of new single‐family houses in November 2019 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 719,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 1.3 percent (±11.0 percent)* above the revised October rate of 710,000 and is 16.9 ...

November New Orders for Durable Goods Decreased 2.0%, Ex-Trans unch%
Posted: December 23, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in November decreased $5.0 billion or 2.0 percent to $242.6 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down two of the last three months, followed a 0.2 percent October increase. Excluding transportation, new orders were virtually unchanged. Excluding defense, new ...

Chicago Fed National Activity Index points to a rebound in economic growth in November
Posted: December 23, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.56 in November from –0.76 in October. All four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from October, and two of the four categories made positive contributions to the index in November. The index’s ...

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity decreased further in December
Posted: December 20, 2019 at 11:00 AM (Friday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity decreased further in December while expectations for future activity remained positive. The month-over-month prices for raw materials increased, while prices for finished products eased slightly from a month ago. District firms expected higher prices in the next ...

Personal Income increased 0.5%, Spending increased 0.4%
Posted: December 20, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Personal income increased $101.7 billion (0.5 percent) in November according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $87.7 billion (0.5 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $64.9 billion ...

University of Michigan Consumer Confidence increased in December to 99.3
Posted: December 20, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer sentiment rose in the December 2019 survey to near the top of the favorable range it has traveled during the past three years, according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

Since the start of 2017, the Sentiment Index has averaged 97.0. This was the second best extended period of optimism recorded in the long history of the surveys, said U-M economist Richard Curtin, director of the surveys. The most favorable average level was during the four ...

3Q2019 GDP final estimate increased 2.1%
Posted: December 20, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the third quarter of 2019, according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 2.0 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was also 2.1 percent. With the third estimate for the third quarter, upward revisions to ...

U.S. Leading Economic Index unch% in November
Posted: December 19, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI)for the U.S. was unchanged in November, remaining at 111.6 (2016 = 100), following a 0.2 percent decline in both October and September.

“The US LEI was unchanged in November after three consecutive monthly declines. Strength in residential construction, financial markets, and consumers’ outlook offset weakness in manufacturing and labor markets,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research ...

Existing-Home Sales decreased 1.7% in November
Posted: December 19, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Existing-home sales fell in November, taking a small step back after October’s gains, according to the National Association of Realtors®. The Northeast and Midwest both reported growth last month, while the South and West saw sales decline.

Total existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, decreased 1.7% from October to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 5.35 million in November. However, sales are up 2.7% from a year ago (5.21 million in ...

3Q2019 Current Account Deficit Decreased
Posted: December 19, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The U.S. current account deficit, which reflects the combined balances on trade in goods and services and income flows between U.S. residents and residents of other countries, narrowed by $1.1 billion, or 0.9 percent, to $124.1 billion in the third quarter of 2019, according to statistics from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). ...

Philadelphia Fed Outlook Reported Activity was flat in December
Posted: December 19, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Manufacturing activity in the region was flat this month, according to results from the December Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's broad indicator for current activity dropped to a reading near zero this month, although indicators for new orders, shipments, and employment remained at higher positive readings. The survey’s ...

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 180,000 to 234,000
Posted: December 19, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending December 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 234,000, a decrease of 18,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 252,000. The 4-week moving average was 225,500, an increase of 1,500 from the previous week's unrevised average ...

Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: December 18, 2019 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 5.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 13, 2019.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 5.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 7 ...

Job Openings edged up to 7.3 million in October
Posted: December 17, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The number of job openings edged up to 7.3 million (+235,000) on the last business day of October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and separations were little changed at 5.8 million and 5.6 million, respectively. Within separations, the quits rate was unchanged at 2.3 percent and the layoffs and ...

Industrial Production rebounded 1.1%
Capacity Utilization increased to 77.3%

Posted: December 17, 2019 at 09:15 AM (Tuesday)

Industrial production and manufacturing production both rebounded 1.1 percent in November after declining in October. These sharp November increases were largely due to a bounceback in the output of motor vehicles and parts following the end of a strike at a major manufacturer. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, the indexes for total ...

November Housing Starts increased 3.2%, Permits up 1.4%
Posted: December 17, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Building Permits
Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,482,000. This is 1.4 percent (±1.4 percent)* above the revised October rate of 1,461,000 and is 11.1 percent (±1.8 percent) above the November 2018 rate of 1,334,000. Single‐family authorizations in November ...

Treasury International Capital Data for October 2019
Posted: December 16, 2019 at 04:00 PM (Monday)

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for October 2019. The sum total in October of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a net TIC outflow of $48.3 billion. Of this, net foreign private outflows were $1.2 billion, and ...

NAHB Builder Confidence increased five points to 76 in December
Posted: December 16, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes increased five points to 76 in December off an upwardly revised November reading, according to the latest National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. This is the highest reading since June ...

Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions were little changed in December
Posted: December 16, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Business activity was little changed in New York State, according to firms responding to the December 2019 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index held steady at 3.5. New orders were also little changed, while shipments grew modestly. Delivery times were somewhat shorter, and inventories held ...

Business Inventories up 0.2% in October
Posted: December 13, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for October, adjusted for seasonal and trading day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,456.0 billion, down 0.1 percent (±0.2 percent)* from September 2019 and was down 0.1 percent (±0.3 percent)* from ...

U.S. Import Price Index rose 0.2% in November
Posted: December 13, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

U.S. import prices rose 0.2 percent in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, following a 0.5-percent decrease in October. The November increase was driven by higher fuel prices, which more than offset lower nonfuel prices. The price index for U.S. exports rose 0.2 percent in November, after declining 0.1 percent ...

U.S. Retail Sales for November Increased 0.2%, Ex-Auto up 0.1%
Posted: December 13, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November 2019, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $528.0 billion, an increase of 0.2 percent (±0.4 percent)* from the previous month, and 3.3 percent (±0.7 percent) above November 2018. Total sales for the ...

Producer Price Index unch% in November, ex Fd & Engy unch%
Posted: December 12, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged in November, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices increased 0.4 percent in October and fell 0.3 percent in September. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index advanced 1.1 percent for the 12 months ended ...

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 49,000 to 252,000
Posted: December 12, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending December 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 252,000, an increase of 49,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 203,000. This is the highest level for initial claims since September 30, 2017 when it was 257,000. The 4-week moving average was 224,000, an increase of 6,250 from the ...

FOMC target funds rate maintained at 1.50% - 1.75%
Posted: December 11, 2019 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in October indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Although household spending has been rising at a strong ...

Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine Index edged up in November to 101.0
Posted: December 11, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Index edged up in November and now stands at 101.0 (July 2018=100), up from 100.9 in October. The Index declined 2.9 percent from the prior month (Sept-Oct) and is up 0.3 percent from a year ago.

In the Midwest, Wisconsin increased 2.2 percent and Nebraska grew 1.8 percent. In the Northeast, New Jersey grew 3.1 percent and Rhode Island increased 2.5 percent. In the South, Oklahoma increased 3.2 percent and Louisiana increased 2.0 percent. In the West, Hawaii grew ...

Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in November, Ex Fd & Engy rose 0.2%
Posted: December 11, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.3 percent in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, after rising 0.4 percent in October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.1 percent before ...

Real Average Hourly Earnings unch% in November
Posted: December 11, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Real average hourly earnings for all employees were unchanged from October to November, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from an increase of 0.2 percent in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.3 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban ...

Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: December 11, 2019 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 3.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 6, 2019. The results for the week ending November 29, 2019 included an adjustment for the ...

3Q2019 Productivity Growth Decreased 0.2%
Posted: December 10, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity decreased 0.2 percent in the third quarter of 2019, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output increased 2.3 percent and hours worked increased 2.5 percent. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates.) From the third quarter of 2018 to the ...

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 2.3 points to 104.7 in November
Posted: December 10, 2019 at 07:00 AM (Tuesday)

Small business optimism posted the largest month-over-month gain since May 2018, rising 2.3 points to 104.7 in November. The exceptional Optimism Index reading was bolstered by seven of the 10 Index components advancing, led by a 10-point improvement in earnings. Owners reporting it is a good time to expand increased by 6 points and ...

Employment Trends Index increased in November to 110.18
Posted: December 9, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased in November, following a decline in October. The index now stands at 110.18, up from 109.96 (a downward revision) in October. The increase marks a 0.1 percent gain in the ETI over the past 12 months.

“The Employment Trends Index increased in November, suggesting solid job growth will continue in the coming months,” said Gad Levanon, Head of The Conference Board Labor Market Institute. “Recently published indicators held on better than expected, suggesting that ...

Consumer Credit Increased at an annual rate of 5.50% in October
Posted: December 6, 2019 at 03:00 PM (Friday)

In October, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5-1/2 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 8-3/4 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 4-1/4 percent.


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Preliminary December Results rose to 99.2
Posted: December 6, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer sentiment rose to the upper end of the favorable range it has traveled since the start of 2017. The Sentiment Index has averaged 97.0 in the past three years, the highest sustained level since the all-time record in the Clinton administration. Nearly all of the early December gain was among upper income households, who also reported ...

Wholesale Inventories up 0.1% in October 2019
Posted: December 6, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

October 2019 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading day differences but not for price changes, were $494.3 billion, down 0.7 percent (±0.5 percent) from the revised September level and were down 1.4 percent (±0.9 percent) from the October 2018 level. ...

November Employment increased by 266,000
Unemployment Rate little changed at 3.5%

Posted: December 6, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 266,000 in November, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 3.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in health care and in professional and technical services. Employment rose in manufacturing, reflecting the return of workers from a ...

New orders for manufactured goods increased 0.3% in October
Posted: December 5, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

New orders for manufactured goods in October, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, increased $1.4 billion or 0.3 percent to $497.0 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 0.8 percent September decrease. Shipments, up following three consecutive monthly decreases, increased less than $0.1 billion or ...

Goods and Services Deficit Decreased in October 2019
Posted: December 5, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The nation's international trade deficit in goods and services decreased to $47.2 billion in October from $51.1 billion in September (revised), as imports decreased more than exports. The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $47.2 billion in October, down $3.9 ...

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 10,000 to 203,000
Posted: December 5, 2019 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending November 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 203,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 213,000. The 4-week moving average was 217,750, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's unrevised average ...

Challenger Layoffs announced 44,569 cuts in November
Posted: December 5, 2019 at 07:30 AM (Thursday)

Job cuts announced by U.S.-based employers fell to 44,569 in November, 11.3% lower than the 50,275 cuts announced in October, according to a report released Thursday from global outplacement and business and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

Last month’s total is 16% lower than the 53,073 cuts announced in the same month last year. ...

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index down to 53.9% in November
Posted: December 4, 2019 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in November for the 118th consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “The NMI® registered 53.9 percent, which is 0.8 percentage points lower than the October reading of ...

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