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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 201611



Beige Book: Economic Activity continues to expand at a modest or moderate pace
Posted: November 30, 2016 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts indicate that the economy continued to expand across most regions from early October through mid-November. Activity in the Boston, Minneapolis, and San Francisco Districts grew at a moderate pace, while Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, and Dallas cited modest growth. Philadelphia, Cleveland, and ...


Help Wanted OnLine Labor Demand decreased 115,300 to 4,723,000 in November
Posted: November 30, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Online advertised vacancies decreased 115,300 to 4,723,000 in November, according to The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Data Series,released today. The October Supply/Demand rate stands at 1.61 unemployed for each advertised vacancy with a total of 2.9 million more unemployed workers than the number of advertised vacancies. The ...


Pending Home Sales Index inched up 0.1% in October
Posted: November 30, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Pending home sales were mostly unchanged in October, but did squeak out a meager gain for the second consecutive month, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, inched up 0.1 percent to 110.0 in October from a slight downward revision of 109.9 in September. With last month's small increase, the index is now 1.8 percent higher than last October ...


Chicago Purchasing Managers Index rose 7.0 points to 57.6 in November
Posted: November 30, 2016 at 09:45 AM (Wednesday)

The MNI Chicago Business Barometer rose 7.0 points to 57.6 in November from 50.6 in October, the highest since January 2015. The increase added momentum to the fourth quarter, with the three-month trend ascending to 54.1 this month, up from 52.1 in the three months ...


Personal Income increased 0.6%, Spending increased 0.3%
Posted: November 30, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Personal income increased $98.6 billion (0.6 percent) in October according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $86.5 billion (0.6 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $38.1 billion ...


ADP National Employment Report increased by 216,000 jobs in November
Posted: November 30, 2016 at 08:15 AM (Wednesday)

Private sector employment increased by 216,000 jobs from October to November according to the November ADP National Employment Report®.

“For the month of November 2016 we saw very strong job growth that has almost doubled in gains over October 2016,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and head of the ADP Research Institute. “This growth was seen in primarily consumer-driven industries like retail and, ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: November 30, 2016 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 9.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 25, 2016. This week's results included an adjustment for the ...


Consumer Confidence increased significantly in November to 107.1
Posted: November 29, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had declined in October, increased significantly in November. The Index now stands at 107.1 (1985=100), up from 100.8 in October. The Present Situation Index increased from 123.1 to 130.3, while the Expectations Index improved from 86.0 last month ...


S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices gained 0.4% in September
Posted: November 29, 2016 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for September 2016 shows that home prices continued their rise across the country over the last 12 months.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, surpassed the peak set in July 2006 as the housing boom topped out. The National index reported a 5.5% annual gain in September, up from 5.1% last ...


3Q2016 GDP preliminary estimate increased 3.2%
Posted: November 29, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 3.2 percent in the third quarter of 2016, according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 1.4 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.9 percent. With the second estimate for the third quarter, the general picture of ...


Paychex-IHS Small Business Jobs Index declined to 100.38 in November
Posted: November 29, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The Paychex | IHS Small Business Jobs Index moderated slightly in November, down 0.02 percent from the previous month. This marks the third consecutive decline, which saw the national index decrease from 100.70 in August to 100.38 in November. Despite this, small business employment growth levels remain consistent with the same period a year ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity Increased Again in November
Posted: November 28, 2016 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity increased again in November, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, posted a fifth consecutive positive reading and edged up to 8.8.

Other measures of current manufacturing activity showed mixed movements. The new orders and growth rate of orders indexes posted their third consecutive negative readings in November but moved up, coming in at -1.4 and -0.8, respectively. The capacity utilization index rose ...


New Home Sales in October at annual rate of 563,000
Posted: November 23, 2016 at 10:17 AM (Wednesday)

Sales of new single-family houses in October 2016 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 563,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 1.9 percent (±13.1%)* below the revised September rate of 574,000, but is 17.8 percent (±16.9%) above ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence up in November to 93.8
Posted: November 23, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

The initial reaction of consumers to Trump’s victory was to express greater optimism about their personal finances as well as improved prospects for the national economy. The post-election gain in the Sentiment Index was +8.2 points above the November preelection reading, pushing the Index +6.6 points higher for the entire month. The ...


October New Orders for Durable Goods increased 4.8%, Ex-Trans up 1.0%
Posted: November 23, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in October increased $11.0 billion or 4.8 percent to $239.4 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up four consecutive months, followed a 0.4 percent September increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.0 percent. Excluding defense, new orders ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 18,000 to 251,000
Posted: November 23, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

In the week ending November 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 251,000, an increase of 18,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 2,000 from 235,000 to 233,000. The 4-week moving average was 251,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's revised average. ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: November 23, 2016 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 5.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 18, 2016.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 5.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 3 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 3 ...


Existing-Home Sales grew 2.0% in October
Posted: November 22, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Existing-home sales ascended in October for the second straight month and eclipsed June's cyclical sales peak to become the highest annualized pace in nearly a decade, according to the National Association of Realtors®. All major regions saw monthly and annual sales increases ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity Index gained 8 points to a reading of 4
Posted: November 22, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity expanded in November, after a three-month contraction period. New orders increased in the most recent survey period, while shipments remained flat. Hiring activity continued to strengthen mildly across firms and wage increases were more widespread. Prices of raw materials and finished goods rose at a ...


Philadelphia NonManufacturing Activity Suggest A Continued Modest Pace
Posted: November 22, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The November Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggests that business activity continued to expand at a modest pace. The survey’s firm-level indicator of general activity remained steady, while the indexes for new orders and sales/revenues increased. The employment indexes suggest expansion in employment for both full-time and ...


Chicago Fed National Activity Growth Increased Slightly in October
Posted: November 21, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, edged down to –0.27 in October from –0.20 in September. October’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was somewhat below its historical trend. The economic growth reflected in this level of the CFNAI-MA3 suggests subdued inflationary pressure from economic activity ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity expanded slightly in November
Posted: November 18, 2016 at 11:00 AM (Friday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity expanded slightly, and producers’ expectations for future activity remained solid. Price indexes increased moderately in November.

The month-over-month composite index was 1 in November, down from 6 in October and September. The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. Durable goods production continued to grow ...


U.S. Leading Economic Index increased 0.1% in October
Posted: November 18, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.1 percent in October to 124.5 (2010 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in September, and a 0.2 percent decline in August.

“The U.S. LEI increased in October for a second consecutive month. Although its six-month growth rate has moderated, the index still suggests that the economy will continue expanding into early 2017,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research ...


Consumer Price Index increased 0.4% in October, Ex Fd & Engy up 0.1%
Posted: November 17, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 1.6 percent before seasonal adjustment.

As in September, increases in the shelter and gasoline indexes were the main causes of the rise in the all items index. The gasoline index rose 7.0 percent in October and accounted for more than half of the increase in the all items index. The shelter index increased 0.4 ...


Real Average Hourly Earnings increased 0.1% in October
Posted: November 17, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.1 percent from September to October, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from a 0.4-percent increase in average hourly earnings being nearly offset by a 0.4-percent increase in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban ...


October Housing Starts up 25.5%, Permits up 0.3%
Posted: November 17, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

BUILDING PERMITS
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,229,000. This is 0.3 percent (±2.0%)* above the revised September rate of 1,225,000 and is 4.6 percent (±1.4%) above the October 2015 estimate of 1,175,000. Single-family authorizations in October were at a ...


Philadelphia Fed Outlook Reported Activity edged down in November
Posted: November 17, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Results from the November Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest that regional manufacturing activity continued to expand. The indexes for general activity, new orders, and shipments all remained positive this month. Overall, labor market conditions remained weak, however. More firms reported increases in prices in November compared ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 19,000 to 235,000
Posted: November 17, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending November 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 235,000, a decrease of 19,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 254,000. This is the lowest level for initial claims since November 24, 1973 when it was 233,000. The 4-week moving average was 253,500, a decrease of 6,500 from the previous ...


Treasury International Capital Data for September 2016
Posted: November 16, 2016 at 04:00 PM (Wednesday)

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for September 2016. The sum total in September of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a monthly net TIC outflow of $152.9 billion. Of this, net foreign private outflows were ...


Builder Confidence held steady at 63 in November
Posted: November 16, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes held steady in November at a level of 63 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI).

“With most of our members responding before the November elections, confidence levels remained unchanged as they awaited the results,” said NAHB Chairman Ed Brady, a home builder and developer from Bloomington, Ill. “Still, builder sentiment has held well above 60 for the ...


Industrial Production unch%
Capacity Utilization edged down to 75.3%

Posted: November 16, 2016 at 09:15 AM (Wednesday)

Industrial production was unchanged in October after decreasing 0.2 percent in September. Although the level of industrial production in September was the same as the previous estimate, revisions to the index for utilities raised the rate of change in total industrial production in August and lowered it in September. In October, ...


Producer Price Index unch% in October, ex Fd & Engy down 0.1%
Posted: November 16, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged in October, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices rose 0.3 percent in September and were unchanged in August. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index increased 0.8 percent for the 12 months ended in October, the largest ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: November 16, 2016 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 9.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 11, 2016.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 9.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 10 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 11 ...


Business Inventories up 0.1% in September
Posted: November 15, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that the combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for September, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,314.6 billion, up 0.7 percent (±0.2%) from August 2016 and was up 0.8 percent (±0.4%) from September ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions were essentially flat in November
Posted: November 15, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Business activity stabilized in New York State, according to firms responding to the November 2016 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index climbed out of negative territory for the first time in four months, rising eight points to 1.5. The new orders and shipments indexes also turned positive, rising ...


U.S. Retail Sales for October Increase 0.8%, Ex-Auto up 0.8%
Posted: November 15, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $465.9 billion, an increase of 0.8 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month, and 4.3 percent (±0.9%) above October 2015. ...


U.S. Import Price Index increased 0.5% in October
Posted: November 15, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

U.S. import prices advanced 0.5 percent in October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, after a 0.2-percent increase in September. The October increase was driven by higher fuel prices which more than offset declining nonfuel prices. The price index for U.S. exports increased 0.2 percent in October following a 0.3-percent ...


Forecasters Predict Slightly Lower Growth over the Next Three Years
Posted: November 14, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

Growth in the U.S. economy looks slightly weaker now than it did three months ago, according to 42 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia before the election on November 8. The forecasters expect real GDP to grow at an annual rate of 2.2 percent this quarter and in each of the next four quarters in 2017. On ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Preliminary November Results rose to 91.1
Posted: November 11, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The Sentiment Index in early November erased the small October decline to climb to its highest level since mid 2016 and rise slightly above the 2016 average of 91.1. The recent gain in sentiment was driven by an improved outlook for the economy. The most striking finding in early November was that both near and long-term inflation ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 11,000 to 254,000
Posted: November 10, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending November 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 254,000, a decrease of 11,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 265,000. The 4-week moving average was 259,750, an increase of 1,750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 257,750 ...


Wholesale Inventories up 0.1% in September
Posted: November 9, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that September 2016 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $444.9 billion, up 0.2 percent (+/-0.4%) from the revised August level and were up 0.4 percent ...


Help Wanted OnLine Labor Demand increased 116,100 to 4,838,400 in October
Posted: November 9, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Online advertised vacancies increased 116,100 to 4,838,400 in October, according to The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Data Series,released today. The September Supply/Demand rate stands at 1.68 unemployed for each advertised vacancy with a total of 3.2 million more unemployed workers than the number of advertised vacancies. ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: November 9, 2016 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

The Mortgage Bankers Association’s latest Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey looks extremely similar to the previous week’s report.

Unfortunately, like last week, the change is very minor, continuing weeks of humdrum reports. This does, however, mark its lowest level since May 2016. ...


Job Openings increased to 5.5 million in September
Posted: November 8, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The number of job openings was little changed at 5.5 million on the last business day of September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires edged down to 5.1 million and total separations was little changed at 4.9 million. Within separations, the quits rate was unchanged at 2.1 percent and the layoffs and discharges ...


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 0.8 points in October to 94.9
Posted: November 8, 2016 at 07:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Index of Small Business Optimism rose 0.8 points to 94.9, still in the 94 range that has bound it for the past five months and well below the 42 year average of 98. It has been a below average recovery. Five of the 10 Index components posted a gain, 3 declined and 2 were unchanged. The fourth quarter though looks to be weaker with ...


Consumer Credit Increased at an annual rate of 6.25%
Posted: November 7, 2016 at 03:00 PM (Monday)

Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 7 percent during the third quarter. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 5-1/4 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 7-1/2 percent. In September, consumer credit increased at an annual rate of ...


Employment Trends Index increased in October to 128.97
Posted: November 7, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased again in October, after increasing in September. The index now stands at 128.97, up from 128.29 (a downward revision) in September. The change represents a 1.0 percent gain in the ETI compared to a year ago.

“The Employment Trends Index increased moderately in recent months, suggesting solid job growth will continue through early 2017,” said Gad Levanon, Chief Economist, North America, at The Conference Board. “The moderation in the ETI’s pace of growth in recent months is ...


October Employment increased by 161,000
Unemployment Rate little changed at 4.9%

Posted: November 4, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 161,000 in October, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in health care, professional and business services, and ...


Goods and Services Deficit Decreased in September 2016
Posted: November 4, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The Nation's international trade deficit in goods and services decreased to $36.4 billion in September from $40.5 billion in August (revised), as exports increased and imports decreased. The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was ...


New orders for manufactured goods increased 0.3% in September
Posted: November 3, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

New orders for manufactured goods in September, up three consecutive months, increased $1.4 billion or 0.3 percent to $455.5 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 0.4 percent August increase.

Shipments, up six of the last seven months, increased $3.9 billion or 0.8 percent to $463.0 billion. This followed a 0.2 percent August increase. Unfilled orders, down four consecutive months, decreased $4.3 billion or 0.4 percent to $1,118.8 billion. This followed a 0.2 ...



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