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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 201601



University of Michigan Consumer Confidence rose in January to 92.0
Posted: January 29, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer confidence remained largely unchanged, as the January reading was just 0.6% below last month’s level. The small downward revisions were due to stock market declines that were reflected in the erosion of household wealth as well as weakened prospects for the national economy. The interviews conducted from last Friday until early this ...


Chicago Purchasing Managers Index increased 12.7 points to 55.6 in January
Posted: January 29, 2016 at 09:45 AM (Friday)

The Chicago Business Barometer bounced back sharply in January, increasing 12.7 points to 55.6 from 42.9 in December, the highest pace of growth in a year.

The latest increase followed extreme weakness in the fourth quarter, with the Barometer averaging 47.7, the weakest quarterly growth since Q3 2009. The three month trend remained depressed at 48.7, up only slightly from 47.7 in December. ...


4Q2015 GDP advance estimate increased 0.7%
Posted: January 29, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Real gross domestic product -- the value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production, adjusted for price changes -- increased at an annual rate of 0.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic ...


Employment Cost Index up 0.6% in 4Q2015
Posted: January 29, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.6 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in December 2015, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries (which make up about 70 percent of compensation costs) increased 0.6 percent, and benefits (which make up the remaining 30 percent ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity fell again in January
Posted: January 28, 2016 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity fell again in January, while producers’ expectations for future activity remained solid. Most price indexes declined modestly.

The month-over-month composite index was -9 in January, unchanged from -9 in December but down from -1 in November. The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. Activity improved ...


Pending Home Sales Index was mostly unchanged in December
Posted: January 28, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Pending home sales were mostly unchanged in December, but inched forward slightly, fueled by a large increase in the Northeast that outpaced declines in the other three major regions, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, crawled 0.1 percent to 106.8 in December from a downwardly revised 106.7 in November and is now 4.2 percent above December 2014 (102.5). The index has increased year-over-year for 16 ...


December New Orders for Durable Goods decreased 5.1%, Ex-Trans down 1.2%
Posted: January 28, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

New orders for manufactured durable goods in December decreased $12.0 billion or 5.1 percent to $225.4 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down four of the last five months, followed a 0.5 percent November decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 1.2 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 16,000 to 278,000
Posted: January 28, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending January 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 278,000, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 293,000 to 294,000. The 4-week moving average was 283,000, a decrease of 2,250 from the previous week's revised average. ...


FOMC target funds rate reaffirmed at 1/4 - 1/2%
Posted: January 27, 2016 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December suggests that labor market conditions improved further even as economic growth slowed late last year. Household spending and business fixed investment have been increasing at moderate rates in recent months, and the housing sector has improved further; however, ...


New Home Sales in December at annual rate of 544,000
Posted: January 27, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Sales of new single-family houses in December 2015 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 544,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 10.8 percent (±17.1%)* above the revised November rate of 491,000 and is 9.9 percent (±25.0%)* above ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: January 27, 2016 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 8.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 22, 2016. This week's results include an adjustment to account for the Martin Luther ...


Consumer Confidence improved moderately in January to 98.1
Posted: January 26, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had increased in December, improved moderately in January. The Index now stands at 98.1 (1985=100), up from 96.3 in December. The Present Situation Index was unchanged at 116.4, while the Expectations Index increased from 83.0 to 85.9 ...


Philadelphia Nonmanufacturing Activity has slowed considerably
Posted: January 26, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Firms responding to January's Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey reported that while regional nonmanufacturing growth remained positive, the pace has slowed considerably. The survey's index for current general activity for the region fell far below its historical average, and the survey's indicators for current activity at the firm level ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity Index lost 4 points to a reading of 2
Posted: January 26, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity grew mildly in January, according to the most recent survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The volume of new orders grew modestly this month, although shipments decreased. Hiring increased at a slightly slower pace compared to last month, although average wages continued to increase at a ...


S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices gained 0.1% in November
Posted: January 26, 2016 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for November 2015 show that home prices continued their rise across the country over the last 12 months.

Year-over-Year
The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, recorded a slightly higher year-over-year gain with a 5.3% annual increase in November 2015 versus a 5.1% increase in October 2015. The 10-City Composite increased ...


Texas Manufacturing Activity Falls Sharply
Posted: January 25, 2016 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

This month‘s survey data include annual seasonal factor revisions. In January of each year, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas revises the historical data for the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey after calculating new seasonal adjustment factors. Annual seasonal revisions result in slight changes in the seasonally adjusted series. Read ...


U.S. Leading Economic Index declined 0.2% in December
Posted: January 22, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined 0.2 percent in December to 123.7 (2010 = 100), following a 0.5 percent increase in both November and October.

“The U.S. LEI fell slightly in December, led by a drop in housing permits and weak new orders in manufacturing,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “However, the index continues to suggest moderate growth in the ...


Existing-Home Sales ascended 14.7% in December
Posted: January 22, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Existing-home sales snapped back solidly in December as more buyers reached the market before the end of the year, and the delayed closings resulting from the rollout of the Know Before You Owe initiative pushed a portion of November's would-be transactions into last month's figure, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Led by ...


Chicago Fed National Activity below average in December
Posted: January 22, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to –0.24 in December from –0.19 in November. December’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was somewhat below its historical trend. The economic growth reflected in this level of the CFNAI-MA3 suggests subdued inflationary pressure from economic activity ...


Philadelphia December Outlook Suggest Weak Activity
Posted: January 21, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Manufacturing conditions in the region contracted modestly this month, according to firms responding to the January Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The indicator for general activity remained negative this month; however, it rebounded from a lower reading in December. Other indicators offered mixed signals: Shipments increased this ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 10,000 to 293,000
Posted: January 21, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending January 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 293,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 1,000 from 284,000 to 283,000. The 4-week moving average was 285,000, an increase of 6,500 from the previous week's revised average. ...


Consumer Price Index declined 0.1% in December, Ex Fd & Engy rose 0.1%
Posted: January 20, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) declined 0.1 percent in December on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 0.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The indexes for energy and food both declined for the second month in a row, leading to the decline in the seasonally adjusted all items index. The energy index fell 2.4 percent as all major component energy indexes declined. The food index fell 0.2 percent as the index for ...


Real Average Hourly Earnings increased 0.1% in December
Posted: January 20, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.1 percent from November to December, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from no change in average hourly earnings combined with a 0.1-percent decrease in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban ...


December Housing Starts down 2.5%, Permits down 3.9%
Posted: January 20, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

BUILDING PERMITS
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,232,000. This is 3.9 percent (±2.2%) below the revised November rate of 1,282,000, but is 14.4 percent (±1.2%) above the December 2014 estimate of 1,077,000. Single-family authorizations in December were at ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: January 20, 2016 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 9.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 15, 2016.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 9.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 12 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 19 ...


Treasury International Capital Data for November 2015
Posted: January 19, 2016 at 04:00 PM (Tuesday)

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for November 2015. The sum total in November of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a monthly net TIC outflow of $3.2 billion. Of this, net foreign private outflows were $12.5 billion, ...


Builder Confidence held steady in January at 60
Posted: January 19, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes held steady at 60 in January from a downwardly revised December reading of 60 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index.

“After eight months hovering in the low 60s, builder sentiment is reflecting that many markets continue to show a gradual improvement, which should bode well for future home sales in the year ahead,” said NAHB Chairman Tom Woods, a home builder from Blue Springs, Mo. ...


Business Inventories down 0.2% in November
Posted: January 15, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that the combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for November, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,313.5 billion, down 0.2 percent (±0.2%)* from October 2015 and was down 2.8 percent (±0.5%) from ...


Industrial Production decreased 0.4%
Capacity Utilization fell to 76.5%

Posted: January 15, 2016 at 09:15 AM (Friday)

Industrial production declined 0.4 percent in December, primarily as a result of cutbacks for utilities and mining. The decrease for total industrial production in November was larger than previously reported, but upward revisions to earlier months left the level of the index in November only slightly below its initial estimate. For the ...


Producer Price Index decreased 0.2% in December, ex Fd & Engy up 0.1%
Posted: January 15, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The Producer Price Index for final demand decreased 0.2 percent in December, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices increased 0.3 percent in November and fell 0.4 percent in October. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index fell 1.0 percent in 2015, after rising 0.9 percent in ...


U.S. Retail Sales for December decrease 0.1%, Ex-Auto down 0.1%
Posted: January 15, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for December, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $448.1 billion, a decrease of 0.1 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month, and 2.2 percent (±0.7%) above December 2014. ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions declined in January
Posted: January 15, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The January 2016 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that business activity declined for New York manufacturers at the fastest pace since the Great Recession. The headline general business conditions index fell thirteen points to -19.4. The new orders and shipments indexes plummeted, indicating a steep decline in both orders and ...


BTMU U.S. Business Barometer fell by 1.0%
Posted: January 14, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

For the week ending January 2 2016, the BTMU U.S. Business Barometer fell by 1.0 percent to 96.8, extending the fall for three consecutive weeks. This week’s drop was driven by both consumption and production indexes. Chain store sales, for example, dipped by 2.3 percent following a sharp loss of 1.6 percent in the previous week; while ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 7,000 to 284,000
Posted: January 14, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending January 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 284,000, an increase of 7,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 277,000. The 4-week moving average was 278,750, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 275,750. There were no special factors impacting this week's ...


U.S. Import Price Index declined 1.2% in December
Posted: January 14, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

U.S. import prices declined 1.2 percent in December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, driven by a drop in fuel prices. The December decrease followed a 0.5-percent fall the previous month. Prices for U.S. exports also decreased in December, declining 1.1 percent, after a 0.7-percent drop ...


Beige Book: Economic Activity continues at modest pace
Posted: January 13, 2016 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts indicated that economic activity has expanded in nine of the Districts since the previous Beige Book report and contacts in Boston were described as upbeat. Meanwhile, New York and Kansas City described economic activity in their Districts as essentially flat. Atlanta and San ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: January 13, 2016 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 21.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 8, 2016. The previous week's results included an adjustment for the New ...


Job Openings were little changed at 5.4 million in November
Posted: January 12, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The number of job openings was little changed at 5.4 million on the last business day of November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires and separations were little changed at 5.2 million and 4.9 million, respectively. Within separations, the quits rate was 2.0 percent, and the layoffs and discharges rate was 1.2 percent. ...


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 0.4 points to 95.2
Posted: January 12, 2016 at 07:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Index of Small Business Optimism rose 0.4 points in December, increasing to 95.2. The Index is stuck in a “below average” rut, characterizing the performance of the small business sector. Historically accounting for about half of private GDP, below average growth for small businesses has not been offset by strong growth in large ...


Employment Trends Index Increased in December to 129.33
Posted: January 11, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased in December. The index now stands at 129.33, up from 128.27 in November. The change represents a 2.6 percent gain in the ETI compared to a year ago.

“The Employment Trends Index rebounded sharply in December, nearly erasing November’s entire decline,” said Gad Levanon, Managing Director of Macroeconomic and Labor Market Research at The Conference Board. “However, the slowdown in the ETI growth rate in recent months, ...


Consumer Credit Increased at an annual rate of 4.75%
Posted: January 8, 2016 at 03:00 PM (Friday)

In November, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4-3/4 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 7-1/2 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 3-3/4 percent.

...


Wholesale Inventories down 0.3% in November
Posted: January 8, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that November 2015 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $442.8 billion, down 1.0 percent (+/-0.5%) from the revised October level and were down 4.6 percent ...


December Employment increased by 292,000
Unemployment Rate remains at 5.0%

Posted: January 8, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 292,000 in December, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.0 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment gains occurred in several industries, led by professional and business services, construction, health care, and food services and drinking places. Mining ...


BTMU U.S. Business Barometer declined by 0.4%
Posted: January 7, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

For the week ending December 26 2015, the BTMU U.S. Business Barometer fell by 0.6 percent to 97.8, extending the fall for two weeks in a row. This week’s drop was driven by both consumption and production indexes. Chain store sales, for instance, dipped by 1.6 percent following a solid gain of 3.7 percent in the previous week; while ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 10,000 to 277,000
Posted: January 7, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending January 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 277,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 287,000. The 4-week moving average was 275,750, a decrease of 1,250 from the previous week's unrevised average of 277,000. There were no special factors impacting this week's ...


Challenger Layoffs were 23,622 in December
Posted: January 7, 2016 at 07:30 AM (Thursday)

A strong economy, coupled with what appears to be a growing reluctance to announce layoffs during the holidays, contributed to December experiencing the lowest number of monthly job cuts in more than 15 years, according to the report released today by global outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray & ...


New orders for manufactured goods decreased 0.2% in November
Posted: January 6, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

New orders for manufactured goods in November, down three of the last four months, decreased $1.1 billion or 0.2 percent to $472.2 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 1.3 percent October increase.

Shipments, up following four consecutive monthly decreases, increased $1.0 billion or 0.2 percent to $475.3 billion. This followed a 0.7 percent October decrease. Unfilled orders, up two consecutive months, increased $1.9 billion or 0.2 percent to $1,193.9 billion. This ...


Help Wanted OnLine Labor Demand decreased 276,800 to 5,407,700 in December
Posted: January 6, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Online advertised vacancies decreased 276,800 to 5,407,700 in December, according to The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Data Series,released today. The November Supply/Demand rate stands at 1.40 unemployed for each advertised vacancy with a total of 2.3 million more unemployed workers than the number of advertised vacancies. ...


ISM Non-Manufacturing Index slightly slower growth rate of 55.3% in December
Posted: January 6, 2016 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in December for the 71st consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The NMI® registered 55.3 percent in December, 0.6 percentage point lower than the November reading of 55.9 ...


Goods and Services Deficit Decreased in November 2015
Posted: January 6, 2016 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The Nation's international trade deficit in goods and services decreased to $42.4 billion in November from $44.6 billion in October (revised), as imports decreased more than exports.

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $42.4 billion in November, down $2.2 billion from $44.6 billion in October, revised. November exports were $182.2 ...



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