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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 202311


Pending Home Sales dropped 1.5% in October 2023
Posted: November 30, 2023 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Pending home sales dropped 1.5% in October, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The Northeast posted a monthly gain in transactions while the Midwest, South and West all recorded losses. All four U.S. regions noted year-over-year declines in transactions.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – dropped 1.5% to 71.4 in October, the lowest number since the index was originated in 2001. Year over year, pending transactions declined 8.5%. An index of 100 is ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase 7,000 to 218,000
Posted: November 30, 2023 at 09:47 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending November 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 218,000, an increase of
7,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 209,000 to
211,000. The 4-week moving average was 220,000, a decrease of 500 from the previous week's revised ...


Personal Income Increased 0.2%, Spending Increased 0.2% in October 2023
Posted: November 30, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Personal income increased $57.1 billion (0.2 percent at a monthly rate) in October, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 2 and 3). Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $63.4 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) ...


Chicago Purchasing Managers Index surged to 55.8 in November 2023
Posted: November 30, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

• The Chicago Business BarometerTM, produced with MNI surged +11.8 points to 55.8 from 44.0 in October. This represents the first expansionary reading since August 2022, the highest level since May 2022, and the biggest monthly rise since September 2020.
• Production, New Orders, Inventories, Supplier Deliveries all increased to levels above ...


Beige Book: Economic Activity slowed since the previous report
Posted: November 29, 2023 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Overall Economic Activity
On balance, economic activity slowed since the previous report, with four Districts reporting modest growth, two indicating conditions were flat to slightly down, and six noting slight declines in activity. Retail sales, including autos, remained mixed; sales of discretionary items and durable goods, like furniture ...


3Q2023 GDP preliminary estimate increased 5.2%
Posted: November 29, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 5.2 percent in the third quarter of 2023 (table 1), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 2.1 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 4.9 percent. The update primarily reflected upward revisions to nonresidential fixed ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: November 29, 2023 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 0.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 24, 2023. This week’s results include an adjustment for the observance of the ...


Consumer Confidence increased in November 2023 to 102.0
Posted: November 28, 2023 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased in November to 102.0 (1985=100), up from a downwardly revised 99.1 in October. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—ticked down slightly to 138.2 (1985=100), from 138.6. The Expectations Index—based on ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity slowed to -5 in November 2023
Posted: November 28, 2023 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity slowed in November, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index decreased from 3 in October to −5 in November. Of its three component indexes, shipments fell from 9 to −8, new orders edged down from −4 to −5, and employment decreased from ...


S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices increase 0.3% in September 2023
Posted: November 28, 2023 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for September 2023 show that 15 of the 20 major metro markets reported month-over-month price ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity contracted in November 2023
Posted: November 27, 2023 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity contracted in November after two months of expansion, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell 12 points to -7.2.

Other measures of manufacturing activity also indicated contraction this month. The new orders index has been negative for 18 months and dropped from -8.8 to -20.5 in November. The capacity utilization index returned to negative territory, falling from 5.4 to -10.1, while ...


New Home Sales in October 2023 at annual rate of 679,000
Posted: November 27, 2023 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

New Home Sales
Sales of new single‐family houses in October 2023 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 679,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 5.6 percent (±12.3 percent)* below the revised September rate of 719,000, but is 17.7 ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence fell in November 2023 to 61.3
Posted: November 22, 2023 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Consumer sentiment fell back a modest 2.5 index points, or 4%, in November, extending what is now a four-month stretch of consecutive declines, according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

While consumers’ views of their personal finances improved, their economic outlook deteriorated, due in part to growing concerns about high interest rates, ongoing wars in Gaza and Ukraine, and election uncertainty, according to chief economist Joanne Hsu, director of the ...


October 2023 New Orders for Durable Goods decreased 5.4%, Ex-Trans unch%
Posted: November 22, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in October, down three of the last four months, decreased $16.0 billion or 5.4 percent to $279.4 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 4.0 percent September increase. Excluding transportation, new orders were virtually unchanged. Excluding defense, new orders ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease 24,000 to 209,000
Posted: November 22, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

In the week ending November 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 209,000, a decrease of
24,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 231,000 to
233,000. The 4-week moving average was 220,000, a decrease of 750 from the previous week's revised ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: November 22, 2023 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 3.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 17, 2023.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 3.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 0.1 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 2 ...


Existing-Home Sales Receded 4.1% in October 2023
Posted: November 21, 2023 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Existing-home sales dropped in October, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Among the four major U.S. regions, sales slid in the Northeast, South and West but were unchanged in the Midwest. All four regions experienced year-over-year sales declines.

Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – fell 4.1% from September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.79 million in October. Year-over-year, sales tumbled 14.6% (down from 4.44 million in ...


Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Survey suggest activity indicated overall improvement in November 2023
Posted: November 21, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Firms responding to the November Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey indicated overall improvement in business activity. The indexes for general activity at the firm level and sales/revenues returned to positive territory for the first time since July. The index for new orders rose but remained negative. The firms continued to report ...


Chicago Fed National Activity Index Suggests economic growth declined in October 2023
Posted: November 21, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to –0.49 in October from –0.02 in September. All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from September, and all four categories made negative contributions in October. The index’s three-month moving ...


U.S. Leading Economic Index fell by 0.8% in October 2023
Posted: November 20, 2023 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. fell by 0.8 percent in October 2023 to 103.9 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.7 percent in September. The LEI contracted by 3.3 percent over the six-month period between April and October 2023, a smaller decrease than its 4.5 percent contraction over the previous six ...


Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine Index fell in October 2023 to 156.4
Posted: November 17, 2023 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The Conference Board−Lightcast Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Index fell in October to 156.4 (July 2018=100), down from an upwardly revised 160.9 in September. The 2.8 percent decrease between September and October follows a 0.6 percent increase between August and September. Overall, the Index is down 2.1 percent from one ...


October 2023 Housing Starts Increased 1.90%, Permits up 1.1%
Posted: November 17, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Building Permits
Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,487,000. This is 1.1 percent above the revised September rate of 1,471,000, but is 4.4 percent below the October 2022 rate of 1,555,000. Single‐family authorizations in October were at a rate of 968,000; this ...


Treasury International Capital Data for September 2023
Posted: November 16, 2023 at 04:00 PM (Thursday)

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for September 2023. The sum total in September of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a net TIC outflow of $67.4 billion. Of this, net foreign private outflows were $62.1 billion, and ...


NAHB Builder Confidence fell 6 points to 34 in November 2023
Posted: November 16, 2023 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

High mortgage rates that approached 8% earlier this month continue to hammer builder confidence, but recent economic data suggest housing conditions may improve in the coming months.

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes in November fell six points to 34 in November, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. This is the fourth consecutive monthly ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Declined Again in November 2023
Posted: November 16, 2023 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity declined again in November, and expectations for future activity ticked down slightly, while price indexes were mixed with a slight increase in raw materials prices but a decline in finished goods prices (Chart 1, Tables 1 & 2). Going forward, firms expect both finished goods and raw materials prices ...


October 2023 Industrial Production declined 0.6%, Capacity Utilization moved down to 78.9%
Posted: November 16, 2023 at 09:15 AM (Thursday)

Industrial production declined 0.6 percent in October. Manufacturing output fell 0.7 percent. Much of this decline was due to a 10 percent drop in the output of motor vehicles and parts that was affected by strikes at several major manufacturers of motor vehicles—the index for manufacturing excluding motor vehicles and parts edged up 0.1 ...


U.S. Import Price Index declined 0.8 percent in October
Posted: November 16, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

U.S. import prices declined 0.8 percent in October, after increasing 0.4 percent in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Lower fuel and nonfuel prices contributed to the decrease. Prices for U.S. exports fell 1.1 percent in October following a 0.5-percent rise the ...


Philadelphia Fed Mfg Outlook Activity continued to decline overall in November 2023
Posted: November 16, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Manufacturing activity in the region continued to decline overall, according to the firms responding to the November Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's indicator for general activity rose but remained negative. The indicator for shipments turned negative, while the indicator for new orders was positive but low. The ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase 13,000 to 231,000
Posted: November 16, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending November 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 231,000, an increase of
13,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 217,000 to
218,000. The 4-week moving average was 220,250, an increase of 7,750 from the previous week's revised ...


Business Inventories up 0.4% in September 2023
Posted: November 15, 2023 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for September, adjusted for seasonal and trading day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,879.3 billion, up 1.1 percent (±0.2 percent) from August 2023 and was up 1.6 percent (±0.2 percent) from ...


Producer Price Index decreased 0.5% in October 2023, ex Fd & Engy up 0.1%
Posted: November 15, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The Producer Price Index for final demand fell 0.5 percent in October, seasonally adjusted, after advancing 0.4 percent in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The October decline is the largest decrease in final demand prices since a 1.2-percent drop in April 2020. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand ...


U.S. Retail Sales for October 2023 down 0.1%, Ex-Auto up 0.1%
Posted: November 15, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October 2023, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $705.0 billion, down 0.1 percent (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, and up 2.5 percent (±0.7 percent) above October 2022. Total sales for the August 2023 ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions grew modestly in November 2023
Posted: November 15, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Business activity grew modestly in New York State, according to firms responding to the November 2023 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index climbed fourteen points to 9.1. New orders continued to fall slightly, while shipments picked up. Unfilled orders declined significantly, and delivery ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: November 15, 2023 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 2.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 10, 2023.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 2.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 0.4 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 2 ...


Consumer Price Index unch% in October, Ex Fd & Engy up 0.2%
Posted: November 14, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.4 percent in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.2 percent before ...


Real Average Hourly Earnings increased 0.2% in October 2023
Posted: November 14, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

All employees

Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.2 percent from September to October, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from an increase of 0.2 percent in average hourly earnings combined with no change in ...


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index decreased to 90.7 in October 2023
Posted: November 14, 2023 at 07:00 AM (Tuesday)

NFIB is celebrating 50 years of the Small Business Economic Trends survey, but small business owners are not feeling optimistic in the current economic environment. The Optimism Index decreased 0.1 points in October to 90.7, marking the 22nd month below the 50-year average. The last time the Optimism Index was at or above the average was ...


Philadelphia Fed Survey of Forecasters Predict Upgrade Growth and Job Gains in 2023 and 2024
Posted: November 13, 2023 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The outlook for the U.S. economy looks somewhat better now than it did three months ago, according to 34 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters predict the economy will expand at an annual rate of 1.3 percent this quarter, up slightly from the prediction of 1.2 percent in the last survey. On ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Preliminary November 2023 Results down to 60.4
Posted: November 10, 2023 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer sentiment slipped for the fourth straight month, falling 5% in November. While current and expected personal finances both improved modestly this month, the long-run economic outlook slid 12%, in part due to growing concerns about the negative effects of high interest rates. Ongoing wars in Gaza and Ukraine weighed on many consumers ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease 3,000 to 217,000
Posted: November 9, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending November 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 217,000, a decrease of
3,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 3,000 from 217,000 to
220,000. The 4-week moving average was 212,250, an increase of 1,500 from the previous week's revised ...


Wholesale Inventories up 0.2% in September 2023
Posted: November 8, 2023 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

September 2023 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading day differences but not for price changes, were $678.1 billion, up 2.2 percent (±0.5 percent) from the revised August level and were up 0.9 percent (±0.5 percent) from the revised September ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: November 8, 2023 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 2.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 3, 2023.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 2.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 1 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 2 ...


Consumer Credit Increased at an annual rate of 2.2% in September 2023
Posted: November 7, 2023 at 03:00 PM (Tuesday)

Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.4 percent during the third quarter. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 8.6 percent, while nonrevolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 2.4 percent. In September, consumer credit increased at an annual rate of ...


Goods and Services Deficit increased in September 2023
Posted: November 7, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $61.5 billion in September, up $2.9 billion from $58.7 billion in August, revised.

Exports, Imports, and Balance ...


Employment Trends Index decreased in October 2023 to 114.16
Posted: November 6, 2023 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) decreased in October to 114.16, from a downwardly revised 114.63 in September. The Employment Trends Index is a leading composite index for employment. When the Index increases, employment is likely to grow as well, and vice versa. Turning points in the Index indicate that a change in the ...


ISM Non-Manufacturing Index decrease to 51.8% in October 2023
Posted: November 3, 2023 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Economic activity in the services sector expanded in October for the 10th consecutive month as the Services PMI® registered 51.8 percent, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM® Report On Business®. The sector has grown in 40 of the last 41 months, with the lone contraction in ...


October 2023 Employment rose by 150,000
Unemployment Rate up at 3.9%

Posted: November 3, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 150,000 in October, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, government, and social assistance. Employment declined in manufacturing due to ...


New orders for manufactured goods increased 2.8% in September 2023
Posted: November 2, 2023 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Summary
New orders for manufactured goods in September, up six of the last seven months, increased $16.1 billion or 2.8 percent to $601.5 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 1.0 percent August increase. Shipments, up five consecutive months, increased $2.1 billion or 0.4 percent to $588.1 billion. This followed a ...


3Q2023 Productivity Growth increased 4.7%
Posted: November 2, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 4.7 percent in the third quarter of 2023, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output increased 5.9 percent and hours worked increased 1.1 percent. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates.) The increase in labor productivity is ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase 5,000 to 217,000
Posted: November 2, 2023 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending October 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 217,000, an increase of
5,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 210,000 to
212,000. The 4-week moving average was 210,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's revised ...



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