The Chicago Purchasing Managers reported the CHICAGO BUSINESS BAROMETER recovered from the September stumble:

BUSINESS ACTIVITY:
PRICES PAID weakened;
NEW ORDERS and PRODUCTION reached highest rates in over a year;
EMPLOYMENT index continued to retreat at the August / September rate;
BUYING POLICY: All lead-times dropped sharply. ...

Recovery in New York City business activity is emerging, according to the survey taken by the Institute for Supply Management-New York (ISM-NY). October marked the third consecutive month in expansion territory (above 50), the best stretch in nearly two years. The Current Business Conditions index was 60.8 in October from 72.9 ...

Consumer confidence has improved substantially from the lows recorded in late 2008, and consumers expect the economy to continue to recover during the year ahead. The ongoing economic recovery will be unlike any other due to changes in consumer spending preferences. Typical recoveries are driven by resurgent spending on homes, vehicles, and ...

Personal income decreased $0.1 billion, or less than 0.1 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $0.2 billion, or less than 0.1 percent, in September, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $47.2 billion, or 0.5 percent. In August, personal income increased $17.4 billion, ...

Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.4 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending September 2009, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Both components of compensation--wages and salaries (which make up about 70 percent of compensation) and benefits (which make up the remaining 30 percent ...

Growth in Tenth District manufacturing activity moderated somewhat in October, but producers were more optimistic about future activity. Price indexes increased somewhat for raw materials, while finished goods price indexes were generally stable.

The net percentage of firms reporting month-over-month increases in production in October was 6, down from 16 in September but up from -7 in August (Tables 1 & 2, Chart). Production increased at durable goods plants, but fell for most non-durable goods producers, ...

For the week ending October 17, 2009, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer posted a nice +0.3 percent increase and has not fallen for four consecutive weeks. Though we are only a few weeks into the final quarter of the year, growth in the business barometer implies that the third quarter momentum did not abate, at least not so far. Chain ...

In the week ending Oct. 24, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 530,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's unrevised figure of 531,000. The 4-week moving average was 526,250, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of ...

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 3.5 percent in the third quarter of 2009, (that is, from the second quarter to the third quarter), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In ...

Sales of new one-family houses in September 2009 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 402,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 3.6 percent (±10.2%) below the revised August rate of 417,000 and is 7.8 percent (±12.0%) below the ...

New orders for manufactured durable goods in September increased $1.6 billion or 1.0 percent to $165.7 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This was the second increase in the last three months. This followed a 2.6 percent August decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.9 percent. Excluding defense, new ...

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 23, 2009. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 12.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 2.8 percent ...

In October, the seasonally adjusted composite index of manufacturing activity — our broadest measure of manufacturing — moved down to 7 from September's reading of 14. Among the index's components, shipments dropped 11 points to 11, new orders lost six points to finish at 7, and the jobs index eased three points to end ...

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had declined in September, deteriorated further in October. The Index now stands at 47.7 (1985=100), down from 53.4 in September. The Present Situation Index decreased to 20.7 from 23.0 last month. The Expectations Index declined to 65.7 from 73.7 ...

Data through August 2009, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show that the annual rate of decline of the 10-City and 20-City Composites improved compared to last month’s reading. This marks approximately seven months of improved readings in these ...

The International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs Retail Chain Store Sales Index rose 0.1% in the week ended Sunday from its level a week before on a seasonally adjusted, comparable-store basis. On a year-on-year basis, retailers saw sales rise 2.4%.

"The retail sales recovery continues with its fifth consecutive weekly increase in the ICSC-GS weekly sales index," said Michael P. Niemira, ICSC chief economist. "For October, ICSC Research continues to expect monthly industry comp-store sales to be flat on a ...

The Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index (CFMMI) increased 1.0% in September, to a seasonally adjusted level of 82.3 (2002 = 100). Revised data show the index rose 1.6% in August, to 81.6. The Federal Reserve Board’s industrial production index for manufacturing (IPMFG) was also up 1.0% in September. Regional output in September declined ...

Texas factory activity declined in October, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index—a key indicator of current manufacturing activity—edged further into negative territory, suggesting output in October contracted after remaining stable ...

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index was –0.81 in September, down from –0.65 in August. Three of the four broad categories of indicators made negative contributions to the index in September, but the production and income category made a positive contribution for the third ...

Existing-home sales bounced back strongly in September with first-time buyers driving much of the activity, marking five gains in the past six months, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – jumped 9.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.57 million units in September from a level of 5.10 million in August, and are 9.2 percent higher than the 5.10 million-unit pace ...

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index™ (LEI) for the U.S. increased 1.0 percent in September, following a 0.4 percent gain in August, and a 1.0 percent rise in July.

With the sixth consecutive increase, the LEI's six-month growth rate has improved to its highest pace since 1983. Except for average workweek and building permits, all the leading indicators contributed positively to the index this month. At the same time, the contraction ...

Employers took 2,561 mass layoff actions in September that resulted in the separation of 248,006 workers, seasonally adjusted, as measured by new filings for unemployment insurance benefits during the month, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Each action involved at least 50 persons from a single employer. The number of ...

Reports from the 12 Federal Reserve Districts indicated either stabilization or modest improvements in many sectors since the last report, albeit often from depressed levels. Leading the more positive sector reports among Districts were residential real estate and manufacturing, both of which continued a pattern of improvement that emerged ...

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 16, 2009. This week’s results include an adjustment to account for the Columbus Day holiday. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 13.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis ...

BUILDING PERMITS
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 573,000. This is 1.2 percent (±1.8%) below the revised August rate of 580,000 and is 28.9 percent (±2.2%) below the September 2008 estimate of 806,000. Single-family authorizations in September were at a rate ...

The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods declined 0.6 percent in September, seasonally adjusted, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. This decrease followed a 1.7-percent rise in August and a 0.9-percent decline in July. In September, at the earlier stages of processing, prices received by ...

The International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs Retail Chain Store Sales Index rose 0.2% in the week ended Saturday from its level a week before on a seasonally adjusted, comparable-store basis. On a year-on-year basis, retailers saw sales rise 2.8%, the biggest increase in 14 months, according to data reported ...

With the expiration date for an important home buyer incentive approaching, builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes slipped one point to 18 in October, according to the latest National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market ...

Industrial production rose 0.7 percent in September after an upwardly revised gain of 1.2 percent in August. For the third quarter as a whole, output advanced at an annual rate of 5.2 percent, the first quarterly gain since the first quarter of 2008 and the largest gain since the first quarter of 2005. Production in manufacturing increased ...

The region's manufacturing sector is continuing to show signs of recovery, according to firms polled for this month's Business Outlook Survey. Indexes for general activity, new orders, and shipments all registered positive readings for the third consecutive month, but they suggest only marginal growth. Indexes for employment and work ...

For the week ending October 3, 2009, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer increased +0.2 percent on top of +0.1 percent in the prior week. The business barometer turned around sharply in the third quarter and finished on a very strong note in the latest week. Though only 40 percent of the barometer’s components experienced growth, ...

In the week ending Oct. 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 514,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 524,000. The 4-week moving average was 531,500, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week's revised average of ...

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.2 percent in September, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The increase was less than the 0.4 percent rise in August. The index has decreased 1.3 percent over the last 12 months on a not seasonally adjusted basis.

The seasonally ...

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers improved significantly in October. The general business conditions index climbed 16 points to 34.6, its highest level in five years. The new orders index rose 11 points, and the shipments index shot up 30 points, to 35.1. Both employment indexes ...

Real average hourly earnings fell 0.1 percent from August to September, seasonally adjusted, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This decline stemmed from the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), up by 0.2 percent, outpacing 0.1 percent growth in average hourly earnings for production ...

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that the combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for August, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $989.6 billion, up 1.0 percent (±0.2%) from July 2009 and down 15.1 percent (±0.4%) from ...

The U.S. Import Price Index edged up 0.1 percent in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, after a 1.6 percent increase in August. The September increase was led by higher nonfuel prices, which more than offset lower fuel prices. The price index for U.S. exports declined 0.3 percent in September following a 0.7 ...

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for September, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $344.7 billion, a decrease of 1.5 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month and 5.7 percent (±0.7%) below September 2008. ...

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 9, 2009. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1.7 percent ...

The International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs Retail Chain Store Sales Index rose 0.6% in the week ended Saturday from its level a week before on a seasonally adjusted, comparable-store basis.

Colder-than-normal weather helped somewhat, particularly at department stores, which have long been ailing. On a year-on-year basis, retailers saw sales rise 1% in the latest week even as traffic levels were lower. ...

The Nation's international trade deficit decreased to $30.7 billion in August from $31.9 billion (revised) in July, as exports increased and imports decreased.

Goods and Services
Exports increased to $128.2 billion in August from $128.0 billion in July. Goods were $86.8 billion in August, virtually unchanged from July, and services were $41.4 billion in August, up from $41.2 billion in July. ...

For the week ending September 26, 2009, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer increased +0.1 percent compared to a small decline in the prior week. The business barometer turned around in the third quarter and was lead higher by the components of production, most notably a jump in steel as motor vehicle assemblies went into overdrive following ...

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that August 2009 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $317.9 billion, up 1.0 percent (+/-0.5%) from the revised July level, but were down 17.7 percent (+/-1.4%) ...

In the week ending Oct. 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 521,000, a decrease of 33,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 554,000. The 4-week moving average was 539,750, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week's revised average of ...

Consumer credit decreased at an annual rate of 5-3/4 percent in August 2009. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 13 percent, and nonrevolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 1-1/2 percent.

...

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 2, 2009. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 16.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index also increased 16.4 ...

The International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs Retail Chain Store Sales Index rose 0.3% in the week ended Saturday from its level a week before on a seasonally adjusted, comparable-store basis. "A bout of cooler weather helped to spur customer traffic, especially at department stores and discounters, and helped the month to ...

Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector expanded in September, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.

The Non-Manufacturing Index registered 50.9 percent in September, 2.5 percentage points higher than the 48.4 percent registered in August, indicating growth in the non-manufacturing sector after 11 consecutive months of contraction. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity ...

New orders for manufactured goods in August, down following four consecutive monthly increases, decreased $2.8 billion or 0.8 percent to $352.9 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 1.4 percent July increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased ...

Nonfarm payroll employment continued to decline in September (-263,000), and the unemployment rate (9.8 percent) continued to trend up, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The largest job losses were in construction, manufacturing, retail trade, ...