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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 202104


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence rose in April to 88.3
Posted: April 30, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

The April survey recorded continued gains in consumer confidence due to a growing sense that the upward momentum in jobs and incomes is likely to persist, according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

The renewed confidence is due to record federal stimulus spending, both recent and proposed, as well as the positive impact from a growing share of the population who are vaccinated, said U-M economist Richard Curtin, director of the surveys. ...


Chicago Purchasing Managers Index rose 5.7 points to 72.1 in April
Posted: April 30, 2021 at 09:45 AM (Friday)

The Chicago Business BarometerTM, produced with MNI, rose to 72.1 in April, the highest level since December 1983. The index gained 5.7 points, boosted by an influx of new business.

Among the main five indicators, Order Backlogs posted the largest increase, while Supplier Deliveries saw the biggest decline. ...


Personal Income Increased 21.1%, Spending Increased 4.2% in March 2021
Posted: April 30, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Personal income increased $4.21 trillion (21.1 percent) in March according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 3 and 5). Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $4.18 trillion (23.6 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $616.0 billion (4.2 percent). Real DPI increased 23.0 percent ...


Employment Cost Index up 0.9% in 1Q2021
Posted: April 30, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in March 2021, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries increased 1.0 percent and benefit costs increased 0.6 percent from December ...


Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index Points to a Pickup in March
Posted: April 30, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The Midwest Economy Index (MEI), which approximates quarterly growth at a monthly frequency, increased to +0.65 in March from +0.50 in February. Contributions to the March MEI from two of the four broad sectors of nonfarm business activity and three of the five Seventh Federal Reserve District states increased from February. The relative MEI ...


Pending Home Sales Index rose 1.9% in March
Posted: April 29, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Pending home sales increased in March, snapping two consecutive months of declines, according to the National Association of Realtors®. All but one of the four major U.S. regions experienced month-over-month gains in March, while each area recorded year-over-year growth.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings, rose 1.9% to 111.3 in March. Year-over-year, contract signings jumped 23.3%, with the difference due in large part to the pandemic-induced lockdown in March 2020. An ...


1Q2021 GDP advance estimate increased 6.4%
Posted: April 29, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 6.4 percent in the first quarter of 2021 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2020, real GDP increased 4.3 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease 13,000 to 553,000
Posted: April 29, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending April 24, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 553,000, a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 19,000 from 547,000 to 566,000. The 4-week moving average was 611,750, a decrease of 44,000 from the previous week's revised average. This ...


FOMC target funds rate maintained at 0.00% - 0.25%
Posted: April 28, 2021 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.

The COVID-19 pandemic is causing tremendous human and economic hardship across the United States and around the world. Amid progress on vaccinations and strong policy support, indicators of economic activity and employment have strengthened. The sectors most adversely ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: April 28, 2021 at 08:24 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 2.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 23, 2021.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 1 ...


Consumer Confidence rose sharply again in April 2021 to 121.7
Posted: April 27, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® rose sharply again in April, following a substantial gain in March. The Index now stands at 121.7 (1985=100), up from 109.0 in March. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—soared from 110.1 to 139.6. The Expectations Index—based ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity Index held steady at 17 in April 2021
Posted: April 27, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Fifth District manufacturing activity improved in April, according to the most recent survey from the Richmond Fed. The composite index held steady at 17, indicating continued growth, as all three component indexes — shipments, new orders, and employment — remained positive. Survey responses indicated supply constraints, with the backlog of ...


S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices increase 1.1% in February 2021
Posted: April 27, 2021 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for February 2021 show that home prices continue to increase across the U.S.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 12.0% annual gain in February, up from 11.2% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 11.7%, up from 10.9% in ...


Texas Fed Manufacturing Activity Remains Robust, Outlooks Improve Further in April
Posted: April 26, 2021 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity expanded at solid clip in April, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell 14 points to 34.0, a reading still well above average and indicative of robust output growth. Other measures of ...


March 2021 New Orders for Durable Goods Increased 0.5%, Ex-Trans up 1.6%
Posted: April 26, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in March increased $1.4 billion or 0.5 percent to $256.3 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up ten of the last eleven months, followed a 0.9 percent February decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.6 percent. Excluding defense, new orders ...


New Home Sales in March 2021 at annual rate of 1,021,000
Posted: April 23, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

New Home Sales
Sales of new single-family houses in March 2021 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,021,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 20.7 percent (±23.7 percent)* above the revised February rate of 846,000 and is 66.8 ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity expanded further in April 2021
Posted: April 22, 2021 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity expanded further with the highest monthly composite reading in survey history, and expectations for future activity increased considerably (Chart 1, Tables 1 & 2). The index of prices paid for raw materials compared to a month ago also reached the highest level in survey history. In addition, ...


U.S. Leading Economic Index increased 1.3% in March 2021
Posted: April 22, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 1.3 percent in March to 111.6 (2016 = 100), following a 0.1 percent decrease in February and a 0.5 percent increase in January.

“The U.S. LEI rose sharply in March, which more than offset February’s slightly negative revised figure,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “The improvement in the U.S. LEI, with all ten components contributing positively, ...


Existing-Home Sales decreased 3.7% in March 2021
Posted: April 22, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Existing-home sales fell in March, marking two consecutive months of declines, according to the National Association of Realtors®. The month of March saw record-high home prices and gains. While each of the four major U.S. regions experienced month-over-month drops, all four areas welcomed year-over-year gains in ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease 39,000 to 547,000
Posted: April 22, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending April 17, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 547,000, a decrease of 39,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since March 14, 2020 when it was 256,000. The previous week's level was revised up by 10,000 from 576,000 to 586,000. The 4-week moving ...


Chicago Fed National Activity Index suggests economic growth rebounded in March
Posted: April 22, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Led by improvements in indicators related to production and personal consumption and housing, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +1.71 in March from –1.20 in February. All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in March, and all four categories improved from February. ...


Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: April 21, 2021 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications increased 8.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 16, 2021.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 8.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 9 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 10 ...


Philadelphia Fed NonManufacturing Survey indicated expansion in activity in April 2021
Posted: April 20, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Responses to the April Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest expansion in nonmanufacturing activity in the region. The indexes for general activity at the firm level, sales/revenues, and new orders all declined slightly but remained positive. Prices for firms' inputs and own goods continue to sustain overall increases, according to ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Preliminary April Results rose to 86.5
Posted: April 16, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumers in early April reported surging economic growth and strong job gains due to record stimulus spending, low interest rates, and the positive impact of vaccinations. The Sentiment Index rose to its best level in a year on the strength of recent gains in current economic conditions, while future economic prospects remained unchanged ...


March Housing Starts Increased 19.4%, Permits up 2.7%
Posted: April 16, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

Building Permits
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,766,000. This is 2.7 percent (±1.7 percent) above the revised February rate of 1,720,000 and is 30.2 percent (±1.8 percent) above the March 2020 rate of 1,356,000. Single-family authorizations in March were at ...


Treasury International Capital Data for February 2021
Posted: April 15, 2021 at 04:00 PM (Thursday)

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for February 2021. The sum total in February of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a net TIC inflow of $72.6 billion. Of this, net foreign private inflows were $60.9 billion, and ...


Business Inventories up 0.5% in February 2021
Posted: April 15, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for February, adjusted for seasonal and trading day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,549.6 billion, down 1.9 percent (±0.3 percent) from January 2021, but was up 5.7 percent (±0.4 percent) from ...


NAHB Builder Confidence rose one point to 83 in April 2021
Posted: April 15, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Strong buyer demand pushed builder confidence up in April even as builders continued to grapple with rising lumber prices and supply chain issues and consumers faced higher home prices due to a lack inventory. The latest National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) shows that builder confidence in the ...


Industrial Production increased 1.4%
Capacity Utilization increased to 74.4%

Posted: April 15, 2021 at 09:15 AM (Thursday)

In March, total industrial production increased 1.4 percent. The gain in March followed a drop of 2.6 percent in February, which largely resulted from widespread outages related to severe winter weather in the south central region of the country. For the first quarter as a whole, total industrial production rose 2.5 percent at an annual rate. ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease 193,000 to 576,000
Posted: April 15, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending April 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 576,000, a decrease of 193,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since March 14, 2020 when it was 256,000. The previous week's level was revised up by 25,000 from 744,000 to 769,000. The 4-week moving ...


U.S. Retail Sales for March 2021 Increased 9.8%, Ex-Auto up 8.4%
Posted: April 15, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March 2021, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $619.1 billion, an increase of 9.8 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and 27.7 percent (±0.7 percent) above March 2020. Total sales for the January ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions grew strongly in April 2021
Posted: April 15, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Business activity grew strongly in New York State, according to firms responding to the April 2021 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index climbed nine points to 26.3, a multi-year high. New orders and shipments grew at a solid clip, and unfilled orders increased. Delivery times were the longest on ...


Philadelphia Fed Outlook Activity continued to grow in April 2021
Posted: April 15, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Manufacturing conditions in the region continued to improve this month, according to firms responding to the April Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The indicators for general activity, shipments, and employment all rose. The firms continued to report increases in prices. The survey's future indexes indicate continued optimism about ...


Beige Book: Economic Activity accelerated to a moderate pace
Posted: April 14, 2021 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

National economic activity accelerated to a moderate pace from late February to early April. Consumer spending strengthened. Reports on tourism were more upbeat, bolstered by a pickup in demand for leisure activities and travel which contacts attributed to spring break, an easing of pandemic-related restrictions, increased vaccinations, and ...


U.S. Import Price Index increased 1.2% in March 2021
Posted: April 14, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Prices for U.S. imports rose 1.2 percent in March, after increasing 1.3 percent the previous month, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Higher fuel and nonfuel prices contributed to the advances for both months. U.S. exports also increased in March, rising 2.1 percent, following a 1.6-percent advance in February and a ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: April 14, 2021 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 3.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 9, 2021.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 3.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 5 ...


Consumer Price Index increased 0.6% in March, Ex Fd & Engy up 0.3%
Posted: April 13, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.6 percent in March on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.4 percent in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The March 1-month increase was the largest rise since a 0.6-percent increase in August 2012. Over the last 12 months, the all items ...


Real Average Hourly Earnings decreased 0.8% in March 2021
Posted: April 13, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

All employees
Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.8 percent from February to March, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from a decrease of 0.1 percent in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.6 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban ...


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index Rose to 98.2 in March
Posted: April 13, 2021 at 07:00 AM (Tuesday)

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 2.4 points in March to 98.2. March’s reading is the first return to the average historical reading since last November. The NFIB Uncertainty Index increased six points to 81, which was primarily driven by owners being more uncertain about whether it is a good time to expand their business and ...


Wholesale Inventories up 0.6% in February 2021
Posted: April 9, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

February 2021 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading day differences but not for price changes, were $538.3 billion, down 0.8 percent (±0.7 percent) from the revised January level, but were up 6.4 percent (±0.9 percent) from the revised February ...


Producer Price Index rose 1.0% in March, ex Fd & Engy up 0.7%
Posted: April 9, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 1.0 percent in March, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices rose 0.5 percent in February and 1.3 percent in January. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index moved up 4.2 percent for the 12 months ended in March, the largest ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase 16,000 to 744,000
Posted: April 8, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending April 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 744,000, an increase of 16,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 9,000 from 719,000 to 728,000. The 4-week moving average was 723,750, an increase of 2,500 from the previous week's revised average. ...


Consumer Credit Increased at an annual rate of 7.90% in February
Posted: April 7, 2021 at 03:00 PM (Wednesday)

In February, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 7.9 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 10.1 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 7.3 percent.

...


Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine Index rose in March 2021 to 108.5
Posted: April 7, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

The Conference Board®-Burning Glass® Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Index rose in March and now stands at 108.5 (July 2018=100), up from 105.7 in February. The Index grew by 0.5 percent between January and February and is up 23.6 percent from a year ago.

The Help Wanted OnLine® Index is produced in collaboration with Burning Glass Technologies, the global pioneer in real-time labor market data and analysis. This recent collaboration enhances the Help Wanted OnLine® program by providing additional insights into important ...


Goods and Services Deficit Increased in February 2021
Posted: April 7, 2021 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

The nation's international trade deficit in goods and services increased to $71.1 billion in February from $67.8 billion in January (revised), as exports decreased more than imports. The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $71.1 billion in February, up $3.3 ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: April 7, 2021 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 5.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 2, 2021.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 5.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 5 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 5 ...


Job Openings edged up to 7.4 million in February
Posted: April 6, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The number of job openings edged up to 7.4 million on the last business day of February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires also edged up to 5.7 million while total separations were little changed at 5.5 million. Within separations, the quits rate and layoffs and discharges rate were unchanged at 2.3 percent and 1.2 ...


ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 63.7% in March
Posted: April 5, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

Economic activity in the services sector grew in March for the 10th month in a row, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Services Business Survey Committee: “The Services PMI® registered an all-time high of 63.7 percent, 8.4 percentage points higher than the February ...


Employment Trends Index increased in March to 102.44
Posted: April 5, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) significantly increased in March, after a small decrease in February. The index now stands at 102.44, up from 100.01 (a downward revision) in February. The index is currently up 7.7 percent from a year ago.

“The Employment Trends Index significantly increased in March and signals that job growth will be very strong over the coming months,” said Gad Levanon, Head of The Conference Board Labor Markets Institute. “Despite the recent increase in infection rates, the vaccination ...


New orders for manufactured goods decreased 1.2% in February 2021
Posted: April 5, 2021 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

Summary
New orders for manufactured goods in February, down following nine consecutive monthly increases, decreased $4.1 billion or 0.8 percent to $505.7 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 2.7 percent January increase. Shipments, also down following nine consecutive monthly increases, decreased $10.3 billion or ...



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