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Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index Points to a Pickup in March
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The Midwest Economy Index (MEI), which approximates quarterly growth at a monthly frequency, increased to +0.65 in March from +0.50 in February. Contributions to the March MEI from two of the four broad sectors of nonfarm business activity and three of the five Seventh Federal Reserve District states increased from February. The relative MEI rose to +1.28 in March from +0.55 in February. Contributions to the March relative MEI from three of the four sectors and four of the five states increased from February.
The manufacturing sector’s contribution to the MEI moved up to +0.35 in March from +0.27 in February. The pace of manufacturing activity increased in all five states. Manufacturing’s contribution to the relative MEI increased to +0.76 in March from +0.41 in February.
The construction and mining sector contributed +0.01 to the MEI in March, down slightly from +0.06 in February. The pace of construction and mining activity was slower in all five states. Construction and mining’s contribution to the relative MEI moved down to –0.02 in March from +0.05 in February.
The service sector’s contribution to the MEI increased to +0.15 in March from +0.03 in February. The pace of service sector activity was up in Illinois, Michigan, and Wisconsin, but down in Indiana and Iowa. The service sector’s contribution to the relative MEI rose to +0.31 in March from –0.05 in February.
The contribution from consumer spending indicators to the MEI was unchanged at +0.14 in March. Consumer spending indicators were, on balance, up in Illinois and Michigan, but down in Indiana and Iowa and steady in Wisconsin. Consumer spending’s contribution to the relative MEI moved up to +0.24 in March from +0.15 in February.
Posted: April 30, 2021 Friday 08:30 AM