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Category: Research - Topic: Economics - 201307



FOMC target funds rate at 0 - 1/4%, policy unchanged
Posted: July 31, 2013 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June suggests that economic activity expanded at a modest pace during the first half of the year. Labor market conditions have shown further improvement in recent months, on balance, but the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed ...


Chicago Purchasing Managers Index increased to 52.3
Posted: July 31, 2013 at 09:45 AM (Wednesday)

The Chicago Business Barometer increased to 52.3 in July from 51.6 in June, led by gains in Order Backlogs and Supplier Deliveries, more than offsetting a second consecutive monthly decline in both Production and New Orders.

While still in contraction, Order Backlogs rose in July following a record plunge in June but remain below the average seen over the past year. Supplier delivery times moved back above 50 in July having fallen to a four year low in June. ...


2Q2013 GDP advance estimate increased 1.7%
Posted: July 31, 2013 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 1.7 percent in the second quarter of 2013 (that is, from the first quarter to the second quarter), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In ...


ADP National Employment Report increased by 200,000
Posted: July 31, 2013 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Private-sector employment increased by 200,000 jobs from June to July, according to the July ADP National Employment Report®. Broadly distributed to the public each month, free of charge, the ADP National Employment Report is produced by ADP®, a leading provider of human capital management solutions, in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics. ...


Employment Cost Index up 0.5% in 2Q2013
Posted: July 31, 2013 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.5 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending June 2013, following a similar 3-month percent increase in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries (which make up about 70 percent of compensation costs) rose 0.4 percent in the June ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: July 31, 2013 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 3.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 26, 2013.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 3.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 4 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 4 ...


Consumer Confidence Falls Slightly in July to 80.3
Posted: July 30, 2013 at 09:25 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had improved in June, pulled back slightly in July. The Index now stands at 80.3 (1985=100), down from 82.1 in June. The Present Situation Index increased to 73.6 from 68.7. The Expectations Index decreased to 84.7 from 91.1 ...


S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices rose 2.4%
Posted: July 30, 2013 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

Data through May 2013, released today by S&P Dow Jones Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, showed increases of 2.5% and 2.4% for the 10- and 20-City Composites in May versus April. Dallas and Denver reached record levels surpassing their pre-financial crisis peaks set in June 2007 ...


ICSC Chain Store Sales Decline 1.6% in Jul 27 Wk
Posted: July 30, 2013 at 07:45 AM (Tuesday)

The retail industry once again experienced sales volatility as strong sales were seen at some retailers while others endured weaken weekly sales this past week. Despite the strong sales at some retailers the net result for the industry overall was a sales decline of 1.6% for the week ending July 27, 2013, according to on the International ...


Texas Manufacturing Activity Continued to Expand in July
Posted: July 29, 2013 at 10:30 AM (Monday)

Texas factory activity continued to expand in July, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell from 17.1 to 11.4, suggesting output growth continued but at a slower pace than ...


Pending Home Sales Index edged down 0.4%
Posted: July 29, 2013 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

After reaching the highest level in over six years, pending home sales declined in June, with rising mortgage interest rates beginning to impact the market, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, edged down 0.4 percent to 110.9 in June from a downwardly revised 111.3 in May, but is 10.9 percent higher than June 2012 when it was 100.0; the data reflect contracts but not closings. ...


Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index Increased 0.4%
Posted: July 29, 2013 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

The Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index (CFMMI) increased 0.4% in June, to a seasonally adjusted level of 96.0 (2007 = 100). Revised data show the index was down 0.5% in May. The Federal Reserve Board’s industrial production index for manufacturing (IPMFG) moved up 0.3% in June. Regional output rose 3.5% in June from a year earlier, ...


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence increased to 85.1
Posted: July 26, 2013 at 10:00 AM (Friday)

Consumer confidence reached its highest level in six years in the July 2013 survey. This was the third consecutive month that consumer confidence has been higher than in any prior month since the July 2007 survey. This persistently high level of confidence points toward a continued expansion in consumer spending dur-ing the year ...


Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Rose Moderately
Posted: July 25, 2013 at 11:00 AM (Thursday)

Tenth District manufacturing activity rose moderately from last month, although producers’ expectations for future activity eased somewhat. Price indexes were mixed, with a reduction in future materials prices but a slight increase in future selling prices.

The month-over-month composite index was 6 in July, up from -5 in June and 2 in May. The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. Production increased at both durable and ...


DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer declined by -0.2%
Posted: July 25, 2013 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

For the week ending July 13th 2013, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer declined slightly by 0.2 percent for the first time in four weeks. This is mainly due to broadly decreased production indexes including a big dip in Lumber Production, which cancelled out an increase in the prior week. Auto and Truck Production dropped by more than 6 ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 7,000 to 343,000
Posted: July 25, 2013 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending July 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 343,000, an increase of 7,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 336,000. The 4-week moving average was 345,250, a decrease of 1,250 from the previous week's revised average ...


New Orders for Durable Goods Increased 4.2%, Ex-Trans unch%
Posted: July 25, 2013 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

New orders for manufactured durable goods in June increased $9.9 billion or 4.2 percent to $244.5 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up four of the last five months, followed a 5.2 percent May increase and was at the highest level since the series was first published on a NAICS basis in 1992. Excluding ...


New Home Sales in June at annual rate of 497,000
Posted: July 24, 2013 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

Sales of new single-family houses in June 2013 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 497,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 8.3 percent (±20.5%) above the revised May rate of 459,000 and is 38.1 percent (±22.0%) above the June ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: July 24, 2013 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 1.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 19, 2013.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 1 ...


Richmond Fed's Current Activity Index fell 18 to -11
Posted: July 23, 2013 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Manufacturing activity in the central Atlantic region declined in July, according to the most recent survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.* Shipments, new orders, backlogs, and capacity utilization fell this month. Vendor lead-time remained virtually unchanged, while finished goods inventories rose more quickly. On the employment ...


ICSC Chain Store Sales Rise 1.4% in Jul 20 Wk
Posted: July 23, 2013 at 07:45 AM (Tuesday)

U.S. chain-store sales rose 2.1 percent year on year for the week that ended on July 20, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) and Goldman Sachs. Weekly comparable-store sales also rose, increasing 1.4 percent from the previous week as summer clearance sales ...


Existing-Home Sales dipped 1.2% in June
Posted: July 22, 2013 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

Existing-home sales declined in June but have stayed well above year-ago levels for the past two years, while the median price shows seven straight months of double-digit year-over-year increases, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, dipped 1.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.08 million in June from a downwardly revised 5.14 million in May, but are 15.2 ...


Chicago Fed National Activity Slightly Improved in June
Posted: July 22, 2013 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to –0.13 in June from –0.29 in May. Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from May, and two of the four categories made positive contributions to the index ...


U.S. Leading Economic Index was unchanged in June
Posted: July 18, 2013 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. was unchanged in June, remaining at 95.3 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in May, and a 0.8 percent increase in April.

The U.S. LEI was flat in June. Declines in building permits, new orders and stock prices were offset by gains in consumer expectations, initial claims for unemployment insurance, and other financial indicators. However, the LEI’s six-month growth rate remains positive, ...


Philadelphia Fed July Outlook Suggest Pickup in Activity
Posted: July 18, 2013 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

Manufacturing firms responding to the July Business Outlook Survey indicated that regional manufacturing conditions improved this month. All of the survey’s broadest current indicators were positive, and most showed improvement from last month. The survey’s indicators of future activity also showed a notable rise, suggesting that firms expect ...


DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer surged by 0.5%
Posted: July 18, 2013 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

For the week ending July 6th 2013, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer surged by 0.5 percent, the biggest rate of increase since March 30, following gains of 0.3 percent for two weeks in a row. The rise mainly resulted from increases in production indexes including Lumber Production, which jumped by 10.0 percent, Truck Production and ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease 24,000 to 334,000
Posted: July 18, 2013 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending July 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 334,000, a decrease of 24,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 358,000. The 4-week moving average was 346,000, a decrease of 5,250 from the previous week's revised average ...


Beige Book: Economic Activity Increase at a modest to moderate pace
Posted: July 17, 2013 at 02:00 PM (Wednesday)

Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts indicate that overall economic activity continued to increase at a modest to moderate pace since the previous survey. Manufacturing expanded in most Districts since the previous report, with many Districts reporting increases in new orders, shipments, or production. Most Districts noted ...


June Housing Starts down 9.9%, Permits down 7.5%
Posted: July 17, 2013 at 08:30 AM (Wednesday)

BUILDING PERMITS
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 911,000. This is 7.5 percent (±1.0%) below the revised May rate of 985,000, but is 16.1 percent (±1.7%) above the June 2012 estimate of 785,000. Single-family authorizations in June were at a rate of 624,000; this ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: July 17, 2013 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 2.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 12, 2013. The preceding week’s results included an adjustment for the July ...


Builder Confidence Rose 8 points in July to 57
Posted: July 16, 2013 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes rose six points to 57 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) for July, released today. This is the index’s third consecutive monthly gain and its strongest reading since January ...


Industrial Production increased 0.3%
Capacity Utilization edged up to 77.8%

Posted: July 16, 2013 at 09:15 AM (Tuesday)

Industrial production increased 0.3 percent in June after having been unchanged in May. For the second quarter as a whole, industrial production moved up at an annual rate of 0.6 percent. In June, manufacturing production rose 0.3 percent following an increase of 0.2 percent in May. The output at mines advanced 0.8 percent in June, while ...


Treasury International Capital Data for May 2013
Posted: July 16, 2013 at 09:00 AM (Tuesday)

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for May 2013. The sum total in May of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a monthly net TIC inflow of $56.4 billion. Of this, net foreign private inflows were $46.6 billion, and ...


Consumer Price Index increased 0.5% in June, Ex Fd & Engy up 0.2%
Posted: July 16, 2013 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.5 percent in June on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.8 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The gasoline index rose sharply in June and accounted for about two thirds of ...


Real Average Hourly Earnings was unchanged% in June
Posted: July 16, 2013 at 08:30 AM (Tuesday)

Real average hourly earnings for all employees was unchanged from May to June, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from a 0.4 percent increase in average hourly earnings being offset by a 0.5 percent increase in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban ...


ICSC Chain Store Sales fell 1.1% in Jul 13 Wk
Posted: July 16, 2013 at 07:45 AM (Tuesday)

U.S. chain-store sales rose 1.7 percent year on year for the week that ended on July 13, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) and Goldman Sachs. However, weekly comparable-store sales fell 1.1 percent.

"After surging during the long Fourth of July holiday weekend, weekly retail sales flip-flopped and declined sharply this past week,” said Michael Niemira, ICSC's vice president of research and chief economist. “Weather may have accentuated this swing in sales as it is ...


Business Inventories up 0.1% in May
Posted: July 15, 2013 at 10:00 AM (Monday)

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that the combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for May, adjusted for seasonal and trading-day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,283.5 billion, up 1.1 percent (±0.2) from April 2013, and were up 3.1 percent (±1.1) from ...


U.S. Retail Sales for June up 0.4%, Ex-Auto up 0.0%
Posted: July 15, 2013 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $422.8 billion, an increase of 0.4 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month, and 5.7 percent (±0.7%) above June 2012. Total sales ...


Empire State Manufacturing Survey Conditions Continue to Improve
Posted: July 15, 2013 at 08:30 AM (Monday)

The July 2013 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers continued to improve modestly. The general business conditions index rose two points to 9.5. The new orders index rose ten points to 3.8, and the shipments index climbed twenty-one points to 9.0. The prices paid index fell four points to ...


Producer Price Index increased 0.8% in June, ex Fd & Engy up 0.2%
Posted: July 12, 2013 at 08:30 AM (Friday)

The Producer Price Index for finished goods increased 0.8 percent in June, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Prices for finished goods rose 0.5 percent in May and fell 0.7 percent in April. At the earlier stages of processing, prices received by manufacturers of intermediate goods advanced 0.5 percent ...


DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer increased further by 0.3%
Posted: July 11, 2013 at 10:00 AM (Thursday)

For the week ending June 29th 2013, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer increased further by 0.3 percent following a gain of 0.3 percent in the prior week. Some notable gains were seen in both production and consumption indexes. Chain Store Sales rose for three consecutive weeks and Railroad Freight Carloadings picked up after declining for ...


Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase 16,000 to 360,000
Posted: July 11, 2013 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

In the week ending July 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 360,000, an increase of 16,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 344,000. The 4-week moving average was 351,750, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week's revised average ...


U.S. Import Price Index decreased 0.2% in June
Posted: July 11, 2013 at 08:30 AM (Thursday)

Prices for U.S. imports decreased 0.2 percent in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, following a 0.7 percent decline in May. In June, a drop in nonfuel prices more than offset increasing fuel prices. The price index for U.S. exports edged down 0.1 percent in June, after a 0.5 percent decrease the ...


Ben Bernanke on Federal Reserve History
Posted: July 10, 2013 at 04:10 PM (Wednesday)

Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke reviewed the first 100 years of the the U.S. central bank. In his remarks he said that while the Federal Reserve could begin tapering off its asset purchases program later in the year, interest rates were likely to remain steady until the unemployment picture ...


Wholesale Inventories down 0.5% in May
Posted: July 10, 2013 at 10:00 AM (Wednesday)

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that May 2013 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading-day differences but not for price changes, were $424.6 billion, up 1.6 percent (+/-0.5) from the revised April level and were up 4.1 percent (+/-2.8%) from ...


Purchase Apps down, Refi's down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Posted: July 10, 2013 at 07:45 AM (Wednesday)

Mortgage applications decreased 4.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 5, 2013. This week’s results included an adjustment for the July 4th holiday.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 4.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 23 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 4 ...


Job Openings were 3.8 million in May
Posted: July 9, 2013 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

There were 3.8 million job openings on the last business day of May, little changed from April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The hires rate (3.3 percent) and separations rate (3.2 percent) also were little changed in May. This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for ...


Employment Trends Index edged up in June to 111.64
Posted: July 9, 2013 at 10:00 AM (Tuesday)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) edged up in June. The index now stands at 111.64, up from 111.59 (a downward revision) in May. The ETI figure for June is 3.8 percent higher than a year ago.

In the second quarter of 2013, the Employment Trends Index grew more slowly than in the previous two quarters. Even though employment has been growing faster than expected in recent months, the current slowing of the ETI suggests that acceleration in employment growth is ...


ICSC Chain Store Sales rose by 3.0% in Jul 6 Wk
Posted: July 9, 2013 at 07:45 AM (Tuesday)

U.S. chain-store sales rose 2.9 percent year on year for the week that ended on July 6, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) and Goldman Sachs. Weekly comparable-store sales jumped 3 percent, the strongest showing in several months.

"Possibly due to the when the Independence Day holiday fell this year (on Thursday) and the likelihood that more Americans celebrated with an extended four-day holiday weekend strong business was seen across most retail categories, but, especially at grocery stores, ...


NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dropped 0.9 points to 93.5
Posted: July 9, 2013 at 07:30 AM (Tuesday)

The Index dropped 0.9 points in June, ending the hope that a revival in sentiment have started. Six of the ten Index components fell, two rose and two were unchanged. The inventory picture deteriorated and was the main contributor to the decline in the Index. More owners were less satisfied with current inventory holdings and plans to increase ...



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